2017 Coaching Carousel

BirdDog9048 · Feb 27, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Sure, but is that really a serious question? No one on this board can honestly think there is even a shot of that happening.

I was just seeing how far your hard line "Fire Groce" stance went. You said there was nothing he could do to change your mind. I found something. We could whittle it down from there one step at a time, or you could just answer the original question and tell us where your line is.

FatGreg · Feb 27, 2017

ILL in IA said:
What would be good enough for you? I'm not calling you out, I'm always curious when someone sounds so much against a coach, what type of year would change your mind on them.

Curious here, too. If Groce had gone 11-2 non-con and 10-8 in the B1G this year (probably safely in the tournament), but the team continued to be prone to stretches of hero ball, sloppy defense, and middling effort, would people be saying, "this team should have won 25 games and contended for a Big Ten title! Groce needs to go!"

I have big questions about whether Groce is the right coach to lead this team into the future, but if he makes the tournament it will be considered overachieving based on preseason expectations outside the Illini fan base. I honestly want JG replaced with someone like Archie Miller or Monty Williams, but if he wins the next 3-4 games I have no real argument against his retention.

Is Groce such an abysmal coach that he'd bomb even with a well-rounded roster stacked with top-75 talent and plenty of ball handlers? My instinct is that he'd do fine - not as well as some other coaches, but I think he's probably an okay enough coach to win a lot of games under favorable circumstances. I think that's a dividing line right now: some fans think he's such an awful coach that he'll fail regardless of talent/roster composition, while others think he could string together a run of 25+ win seasons given the right personnel.

skyIdub · Feb 27, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Are we really reading into the hug? Stop it.

Let's keep this analytical: If Groce makes the tournament, I think JW retains him. If he doesn't but get's close, I think it's a toss-up (probably depends on how JW feels about his other options). If we blow a tire down the stretch, he gone.

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 27, 2017

FatGreg said:
Is Groce such an abysmal coach that he'd bomb even with a well-rounded roster stacked with top-75 talent and plenty of ball handlers? My instinct is that he'd do fine - not as well as some other coaches, but I think he's probably an okay enough coach to win a lot of games under favorable circumstances. I think that's a dividing line right now: some fans think he's such an awful coach that he'll fail regardless of talent/roster composition, while others think he could string together a run of 25+ win seasons given the right personnel.

Is that really your standard though? Doing okay sometimes every once in a while when the stars align? I want a coach that can manage adversity and make things happen for himself.

ILL in IA · Feb 27, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Is that really your standard though? Doing okay sometimes every once in a while when the stars align? I want a coach that can manage adversity and make things happen for himself.

What is the standard then? If you got back to the FatGreg (I feel back calling you fat but its your name) post, I fall into the camp of I think he can go with 25+ games a year with the right roster. I think the roster is trending that way. Is 25+ wins a year to low?

OrangeAndBlues · Feb 27, 2017

ILL in IA said:
What is the standard then? If you got back to the FatGreg (I feel back calling you fat but its your name) post, I fall into the camp of I think he can go with 25+ games a year with the right roster. I think the roster is trending that way. Is 25+ wins a year to low?

It's not that it's too low, it's that I don't want to have to pray that the conditions are right every year. Yeah, we're gonna have down years. But there is no reason whatsoever Wisconsin and MSU should be looking down at us every year. That is the type of program we should be.

mattcoldagelli · Feb 27, 2017

whovous said:
If firing Groce means your only choices are Cuonzo or Keatts, do you still want to fire Groce? ?

(•_•)
<) )╯KEATTS
/ \

\(•_•)
( (> HYPE
/ \

(•_•)
<) )> TRAIN
/ \

Joestan1967 · Feb 27, 2017

Honestly, I get OrangeandBlues thought process. Seems like JG has had enough time. Hadfive years, and even if we discount first two years (Weber), where is the overall,and steady improvement we all hoped to see? Even this year. 10 games into season. Crazy sub pattern. Looked lost on D. No flow to O. Blown out by everyone by 15 pts. My god, breaking the press, and every doubleteam and in-bounds play were nerve wracking. If you would have taken a vote onJan 1[/SIZE]st, would say this board would have all voted that JG begone.

But, in my opinion, JW will keep JG. And I am happy about it.

I can see the D improvement, I can see the O running. I like the use of a deep bench, keepseveryone aggressive. I think he stayed with MT, and JT too long, butfor a long stretch there, no one could make a basket besides Malcom, and thatnot solely on JG.

I say one more year. JG contract extension, nope, $500K, don’tcare, what it looks like to recruits – all that is JW’s problem. Get these recruits on campus and ready tostay here for 4 years. See how two dynamicguards can move the offense, can’t wait for that, and a new big man aroundbasket.

One more year.

UofI08 · Feb 27, 2017

ILL in IA said:
What is the standard then? If you got back to the FatGreg (I feel back calling you fat but its your name) post, I fall into the camp of I think he can go with 25+ games a year with the right roster. I think the roster is trending that way. Is 25+ wins a year to low?

25 wins a year would be great. But Groce has had all of 1 year with over 25 wins in his 9 year coaching career and it wasn't at Illinois.

BirdDog9048 · Feb 27, 2017

Joestan1967 said:
Honestly, I get OrangeandBlues thought process. Seems like JG has had enough time. Hadfive years, and even if we discount first two years (Weber), where is the overall,and steady improvement we all hoped to see? Even this year. 10 games into season. Crazy sub pattern. Looked lost on D. No flow to O. Blown out by everyone by 15 pts. My god, breaking the press, and every doubleteam and in-bounds play were nerve wracking.

Ten games into the season we only had one loss by more than 11 points (WVU) and had just beaten NC State and VCU...

cfletch · Feb 27, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
Honestly, I don't think he could for me at this point. It's like I and others have posted: body of work.

And by that I don't just mean win-loss record. I mean player improvement, program improvement, in game coaching, identity and strategy... it's all been lacking throughout. It's why last year's injuries didn't hold water as an excuse for me, because those other metrics were all lacking. My eyes said that when the team got healthy again, the problems would still linger.

That's why ending on a small win streak is not enough for me to overcome all the rest. I don't see it as sustainable. Even bad teams luck into hot streaks at times. We shouldn't have to wait TWO YEARS to hit a two game streak in the Big Ten, much less have such long periods of sucking that it qualifies as a "streak."

Agreed. Emphasis on "small win streak." Does not make up for the many unacceptable 20 point losses we've seen during Groce's tenure.

illiniboy60074 · Feb 27, 2017

whovous said:
I have a question for those who advocate firing Groce, i.e., for the clear majority of those who have posted in this thread.

If firing Groce means your only choices are Cuonzo or Keatts, do you still want to fire Groce? I realize this question is hypothetical in the extreme, but comparing Groce to a mutual fund is just as far out there.

Who wants to fire Groce but will keep him if the only replacement choices are Martin or Keatts?

I think Cuonzo or Keatts could take the same group of players further than Groce. I would take either one!!

FatGreg · Feb 27, 2017

I'm obviously not sold on Groce. However, if he keeps this run going for 4-5 more games, he'll be retained (and almost certainly extended). If that happens, I'll be desperately hoping he lands Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Ayo Dosunmu, and Frances Okoro over the next few classes.

I'll be desperately hoping that Groce improves his ability to adjust (both within games and between them) and that his system runs a heck of a lot better with strong guard play and increased athleticism. I'll be hoping we turn the corner as a program and reemerge as a national power.

I still have a hunch that this thing will work itself out: we lose one of the next three games, don't get past the BTT quarters, and find ourselves in the NIT. At that point, I think Groce is gone and we start paving a new path.

Regardless of everything, I'll be rooting hard for JG and the beloved until the fat lady sings.

ILLINI IN NE · Feb 27, 2017

TownieMatt said:
Are we really reading into the hug? Stop it.

Let's keep this analytical: If Groce makes the tournament, I think JW retains him. If he doesn't but get's close, I think it's a toss-up (probably depends on how JW feels about his other options). If we blow a tire down the stretch, he gone.

I was about 30 feet away and it was more than just the hug. JW and JG were like brothers that haven't seen each other in 10 years. JW had a grin ear to ear. There was back slapping and a few comments back and forth, it was a real PDA.

I went from 99% Groce is gone to 25% in that 15 seconds.

JW does not want to fire Groce, maybe he can't find the right hire, I have no clue what happens behind the scenes. JW and JG seem to be good buddies and though that's not a good reason to keep an underperformer it does tend to want to give a little more slack.

Illwinsagain · Feb 27, 2017

ILL in IA said:
I'm curious on what a lot of posters expectations were for this year. It seemed like a lot of goals were to just get back into the tournament. IF that was the case, and the start of the B1G season was bad, but finished strong and made the tournament, did the team not hit your expectations?

I have gotten very used to the idea that Coach Groce would not be retained. However, at the start of the year, my thought was with the consensus, make the tourney and stay or miss it and go. Since there have not been any extreme circumstances that would adversely affect the team, I am good with sticking to this measuring stick. Up until a week ago, I assumed the team would not make the tourney, now, I am starting to drink the kool-aid. If we beat MSU tomorrow, I'll switch from a glass to a pitcher.

I don't like "hoping to make the tourney" as a standard. I got used to an expectation of winning 25 games every year. I look forward to that again.

FeelYourPaign · Feb 27, 2017

^^^
I've fired people I like and people I don't.
It's easier to fire the ones you don't like
Pretty obvious, right?

Illwinsagain · Feb 27, 2017

FatGreg said:
I'm obviously not sold on Groce. However, if he keeps this run going for 4-5 more games, he'll be retained (and almost certainly extended). If that happens, I'll be desperately hoping he lands Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Ayo Dosunmu, and Frances Okoro over the next few classes.

I'll be desperately hoping that Groce improves his ability to adjust (both within games and between them) and that his system runs a heck of a lot better with strong guard play and increased athleticism. I'll be hoping we turn the corner as a program and reemerge as a national power.

I still have a hunch that this thing will work itself out: we lose one of the next three games, don't get past the BTT quarters, and find ourselves in the NIT. At that point, I think Groce is gone and we start paving a new path.

Regardless of everything, I'll be rooting hard for JG and the beloved until the FATGREGGY sings.

FIFY, j/k

I am with this....

Berg88 · Feb 27, 2017

OrangeAndBlues said:
I still disagree. Whether you think the roster was right or not, there was such a fundamental and obvious lack of development and identity through his whole tenure here. There was never a strategy. You could see it so quickly.

We didn't see Nunn and Hill develop? We didn't see Rice develop? Egwu? We didn't have an identity as a strong defensive team the first two or three years? 2013 we were 41st in defensive efficiency, 2014 we were 14th, and 2015 we were 51st (even after the wheels came off). You could see there was no identity or development after the Miami loss? Truly your insight is wondrous.

It hasn't been amazing, no one is arguing it has been. But if you're evaluating 2013 as a failure, I think you're being entirely unfair. Even 2014 as a failure is pretty unfair. That's what I think as an ILLINOIS fan. If we make the tournament this year, I think he's earned one more year with his hot seat. This isn't because I watched this team win 3 games and think that he's a brilliant coach. It's because at the beginning of the year I thought that should be the expectation for this roster.

ILLHangOut · Feb 27, 2017

whovous said:
I have a question for those who advocate firing Groce, i.e., for the clear majority of those who have posted in this thread.

If firing Groce means your only choices are Cuonzo or Keatts, do you still want to fire Groce? I realize this question is hypothetical in the extreme, but comparing Groce to a mutual fund is just as far out there.

Who wants to fire Groce but will keep him if the only replacement choices are Martin or Keatts?

I would fire him. Bottom line for me is that I don't believe he has the competency or leadership qualities to run a program. It's been 5 years and I don't believe he has sufficiently addressed weaknesses that have been present from year to year.

I think he means well, but hasn't been able to make decisions in the best interest of the program. For example, I think that there should've been a staff change between years 2 and 3. He's loyal to his guys, both players and staff, and that's fine, but it's hampering the team and the program. Time for him to go back to being a big-time assistant somewhere.

89illinigrad · Feb 27, 2017

Illwinsagain said:
I have gotten very used to the idea that Coach Groce would not be retained. However, at the start of the year, my thought was with the consensus, make the tourney and stay or miss it and go. Since there have not been any extreme circumstances that would adversely affect the team, I am good with sticking to this measuring stick. Up until a week ago, I assumed the team would not make the tourney, now, I am starting to drink the kool-aid. If we beat MSU tomorrow, I'll switch from a glass to a pitcher.

I don't like "hoping to make the tourney" as a standard. I got used to an expectation of winning 25 games every year. I look forward to that again.

Other than the 6 year stretch from Self to early Weber, when we won 25+ games every year, I'm not sure where everyone is getting this "expectation" of us being a consistent 25 game winner.

Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, in his 21 years with the Illini, won 25 games or more just 3 times.

Lon Kruger, who many consider an excellent coach, never won 25 games in any of his seasons here.

So, I would be happy with winning 20+ games a year and getting a decent seed in the tourney, while every 4 years having things all come together for a deep tourney run and 25+ wins.

Calvin · Feb 27, 2017

ILLINI IN NE said:
I was about 30 feet away and it was more than just the hug. JW and JG were like brothers that haven't seen each other in 10 years. JW had a grin ear to ear. There was back slapping and a few comments back and forth, it was a real PDA.

I went from 99% Groce is gone to 25% in that 15 seconds.

JW does not want to fire Groce, maybe he can't find the right hire, I have no clue what happens behind the scenes. JW and JG seem to be good buddies and though that's not a good reason to keep an underperformer it does tend to want to give a little more slack.

If Groce is here at the end of the season, we'll have to start calling it, THE HUG What you describe certainly sounds like Whitman is pulling 100% for Groce's success.

Personally, I'm looking more at the body of work. The points for and against the last several years results have already been made. We look a lot better, but I attribute the run mainly to Lucas, and the level of competition. Lucas seems to know how to run this team.

BananaShampoo · Feb 27, 2017

89illinigrad said:
Other than the 6 year stretch from Self to early Weber, when we won 25+ games every year, I'm not sure where everyone is getting this "expectation" of us being a consistent 25 game winner.

Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, in his 21 years with the Illini, won 25 games or more just 3 times.

Lon Kruger, who many consider an excellent coach, never won 25 games in any of his seasons here.

So, I would be happy with winning 20+ games a year and getting a decent seed in the tourney, while every 4 years having things all come together for a deep tourney run and 25+ wins.

That's a fair point although I wouldn't lump Henson in there since they didn't used to play as many games in a season as they do now. I do think 20 wins should be an absolute minimum bar almost every year.

Illwinsagain · Feb 27, 2017

89illinigrad said:
Other than the 6 year stretch from Self to early Weber, when we won 25+ games every year, I'm not sure where everyone is getting this "expectation" of us being a consistent 25 game winner.

Henson, our Hall of Fame coach, in his 21 years with the Illini, won 25 games or more just 3 times.

Lon Kruger, who many consider an excellent coach, never won 25 games in any of his seasons here.

So, I would be happy with winning 20+ games a year and getting a decent seed in the tourney, while every 4 years having things all come together for a deep tourney run and 25+ wins.

Yes and no. Teams play more games now I think, and yes, I was reflecting around the beginning of this millennia. At that time, I used to think that 25+ wins meant a successful season. The standard used to be 20 for me, when there were less games played. I hope that makes sense.

89illinigrad · Feb 27, 2017

Illwinsagain said:
Yes and no. Teams play more games now I think, and yes, I was reflecting around the beginning of this millennia. At that time, I used to think that 25+ wins meant a successful season. The standard used to be 20 for me, when there were less games played. I hope that makes sense.

So, let's just split the difference and say that 22-23 wins in a season would be considered successful, with an every 4 year run at 25+ and a deep tourney run.

Illwinsagain · Feb 27, 2017

89illinigrad said:
So, let's just split the difference and say that 22-23 wins in a season would be considered successful, with an every 4 year run at 25+ and a deep tourney run.

I would say 22 wins keeps a seat cool. Thinking about this year, this team can get to 22 wins (NIT most likely way to get there), I wouldn't call it successful. Maybe, instead of thinking wins, how about single digits in losses?

2017 Coaching Carousel

BirdDog9048

The Chief Lives

FatGreg

skyIdub

Winged Warrior

OrangeAndBlues

ILL in IA

OrangeAndBlues

mattcoldagelli

Joestan1967

UofI08

BirdDog9048

The Chief Lives

cfletch

illiniboy60074

FatGreg

ILLINI IN NE

Illwinsagain

FeelYourPaign

Illwinsagain

Berg88

ILLHangOut

89illinigrad

Calvin

BananaShampoo

Captain 'Paign

Illwinsagain

89illinigrad

Illwinsagain