2017 Coaching Carousel

Status
Not open for further replies.
#6,901      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
mattcoldagelli said:
On the offensive end at least, I'm not sure that most of what TJL brings to the table is stuff that gets taught, per se, anyway. Kid is just a basketball player.
Click to expand...

I agree and that was my earlier point of talent, independent of rankings or development. So another reason for optimism would be if Groce could get some more talented players at critical positions (PG/C), areas that he had major misses and gaps in previous years.
 
#6,902      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
FatGreg said:
6. If nothing else, Groce's guys will run through a brick wall for him. This team is like a family and they love Groce. Malcolm Hill loves him, Trent Frazier loves him. He's a good person and has a lot of high-level leadership traits. Maybe it's finally all coming together?
Click to expand...

I think there is a lot more to successfully coaching a basketball program than the W-L record, although based upon about 80% of the 6000 plus posts in this thread my opinion may be in the minority. I do know I would be happy if my son played for Groce.

And from a W-L perspective, as fans, we have paid for the lessons Groce has learned. I don't really want to have to go through another mid-major coach learning curve, if we can reasonably expect Groce to continue to build from where we are now. Personally, I think we can, but it is JW's job to figure that out.
 
#6,903      

IllGuardU

I
IllGuardU
I'm encouraged by the defensive intensity of TJL and KN. They both do a good job of jumping the passing lanes. JCL has also shown marked improvement.
 
#6,904      

ILLHangOut

I
ILLHangOut
mattcoldagelli said:
I would say that, if Groce is retained, the biggest reason for anyone to have optimism should be that his primary shortcomings have thus far been related to teaching/conveying concepts to his players when it comes to game planning and strategy.

You'll lose a lot of money betting on college basketball coaches to change their stripes in any regard, but I would rather have this be the area we need to change as opposed to him just not having a great sense of basketball strategy or if he couldn't personally relate to the players or get them to respond/buy in. Those two things are next to impossible to alter.
Click to expand...

I don't understand those to be his personal shortcomings, and see them as his staff's. I don't have insight to how Groce has portioned the work across his staff, but he clearly isn't handling everything himself, and recruiting on top of it. His staff is game planning, and teaching, and watching the film, and managing the rotations.

I think his biggest personal shortcoming is not making necessary structural and organizational changes. Its clear his staff has had deficiencies for the past 4 years since Brandon Miller left. Why hasn't he made any changes?

Why did he wait 23 games before making the switch from a 10-12 man rotation to an 8 man rotation? As fans it was obvious to us which players were hurting the team, and the rotations every stoppage were killing chemistry.

I think his assistants have collectively failed, and his failure is not replacing them or intervening sooner. Why did it take his neck on the chopping block before doing what's best for the team?
 
#6,905      

AJsDad

A
Cesaroe
AJsDad
Can someone explain and/or make a case for why having pre-planned substitutions is a good thing. From my point of view it seems like we haven't always been shown evidence of the coaches having a good feel for things like accounting for who has the hot hand, quickly responding with subs to adjust to the opponents moments of success, and subbing effectively in game situations to counter scoring droughts and foul problems. I realize we've had limited personnel to deal with but it seems to me the coaches weren't willing to deviate enough from the sub patterns. I've watched Izzo effectively do this for years. Maybe I'm too ignorant regarding our sub related issues but when they talked about looking at the sub patterns a few weeks ago it seemed like evidence of a serious weakness with the staff.

Edit: For example, sometimes guys off the bench can help in specific ways like how Rodman could always go nuts rebounding but could also come in the game and drive an opponent crazy. Lucas Johnson was also good at getting to opponents. Maybe I'm way off but why couldn't AJ or DJW check into a game to absorb a couple fouls and be used to alter the opponents flow when appropriate? It seems like good coaches know how to do all the little things with their line-ups. (Hope this makes sense-too tired to judge myself lol)
 
Last edited:
#6,906      

Dakota Orange

D
Dakota Orange
FatGreg said:
I've been bearish on John Groce's ability to lead this team back to national relevance, but now that it feels likely he's retained, let's at least consider why he may be more successful going forward. Past performance is generally the best predictor of future outcomes, but it's in no way universally reliable. In fact, when you're talking about a complex chaotic system like the annual college basketball landscape, it can become a dangerous fallacy. Groce has a few things going for him as we look to the future:

1. When Groce arrived in Champaign, he stated explicitly that he ran a Point Guard-driven offense predicated on compromising the opposing defense by running a dynamic playmaker off ball screens. In so many words, that's what he said he wanted to do. When he won 29 games and made the S16 his last year at Ohio, that's incontrovertibly what he ran with DJ Cooper. Te'Jon Lucas is the first PG Groce has had at UI who can 1) get to the basket off the bounce, 2) shoot well enough to require defenders to go under screens, 3) find open shooters with regularity, and 4) defend quick opponents. Suddenly our offense and defense look completely different. Next year, Trent Frazier will likely be the backup PG and he's quicker than Lucas and by most accounts a better shooter. If Mark Smith commits, he's bigger than Lucas, a better shooter, and perhaps an equally gifted passer. Da'Monte projects more as a wing, but he's a good passer and ball handler, too. We might have four guys on the roster next year better at playing PG in Groce's system than anyone we've had the last five years. No one is giving Groce a pass for missing on so many Point Guards, but that issue would seem to be rectified going forward.

2. The way Groce has used Mav this year shows me that he's adjusted somewhat to Big Ten play. We were a donut offense in JG's first few years. Much of that was personnel-based, but I have a sense that Groce realized at some point you can't get good 3pt looks against physical, athletic B1G teams without threatening the paint. Tilmon is regarded as an advanced offensive player for his age. He's a good passer, has a few post moves, and can face up from 15 feet. I think (as a sophomore at least) he'll be able to do a lot of what Mav does offensively while providing something close to what Egwu did defensively - all while rebounding better than both.

3. As the season has progressed, I think it's safe to say that Lucas, JCL, Kipper, Aaron Jordan, Black, and Finke is a solid foundation going forward. We definitely need a 5th year banger to provide some rebounding and post defense off the bench. We could use another wing scorer as well. Too bad that DJ Williams doesn't seem to be a part of the future - he's got a lot of natural ability. However, this is a pretty decent roster.

4. Groce's teams have been decent to very good defensively apart from last year and the first 2/3 of this year. Now we look like a really good defensive team again. Incorporating Lucas and Nichols in the rotation has made a world of difference. Next year we may struggle a little while the freshmen get acclimated, but I don't think Groce is a bad defensive coach. Maybe this stretch can grow into the program's identity: relentless effort, ball denial, forcing turnovers. It's been fun to watch, right?

5. Groce is at least a pretty good recruiter. People like him. He's charismatic, passionate, and a genuinely good guy. He's got good relationships and the state and surrounding area are pumping out some of the best talent in two decades. I'm still not convinced that Groce is The Guy, but if you give him Tilmon, Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Dosunmu, Okoro, Liddell, Adam Miller, et al, can he get to the S16/E8? I say probably so. If Groce gets a 3yr extension, I think he can keep recruiting at a high level. As our talent level rises, I think we'll climb the conference ladder over the next 3-4 years.

6. If nothing else, Groce's guys will run through a brick wall for him. This team is like a family and they love Groce. Malcolm Hill loves him, Trent Frazier loves him. He's a good person and has a lot of high-level leadership traits. Maybe it's finally all coming together?

I've wanted a change. Frankly, I still do. However, I don't think keeping Groce will necessarily relegate the program to another decade of mediocrity. I think there's a fair chance he finds success here. I'd rather have Tony Bennett or Monty Williams. I'd maybe rather roll the dice with Keatts or even Anthony Grant. If Groce stays, though, I won't be shocked if he wins a B1G title in two years. I think his future success is plausible.
Click to expand...

Thanks for this fatgreg, I appreciate your perspective and bb knowledge
 
#6,907      

The Pontiff

T
Chicago, IL
The Pontiff
whovous said:
Others have posted the stats on this. While players can request release from their LOIs upon a coaching change, historically most recruits do not ask to be let out of their commitment. Malcolm Hill did not leave when Weber was fired, to take one example.
Click to expand...

This is basically correct, at least for the P5 firings over the past two seasons, in that signed recruits mostly stick with their commitments.

But Malcolm is not an example of this. He was a junior in HS when Weber was fired - verbally committed but not signed. Orris was the only recruit signed by Weber in the Fall of 2011 and he was let out of his LOI after Groce was hired, though pretty sure that was Groce's call.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#6,908      

CARPET

C
CARPET
This team has finally found itself. The infusion of freshmen talent makes things exciting again.

I am all in for John Groce to coach next year with his well put together class projected top 20.

Stop with all the talk that Groce can't coach- He is Coaching it right in front of your eyes.

We got something special happening Illinois fans- Embrace the moment. :illinois:
 
#6,909      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
The Pontiff said:
But Malcolm is not an example of this. He was a junior in HS when Weber was fired - verbally committed but not signed.
Click to expand...

That is correct and has been corrected in the past as well. Yet, many posters continue to list Hill as a signed recruit left behind by Weber. Hill was a part of Groce's first fall signing class along with Nunn, Colbert and Mav.
 
#6,910      

GBPillini

GBPillini
GBPillini
CARPET said:
This team has finally found itself. The infusion of freshmen talent makes things exciting again.

I am all in for John Groce to coach next year with his well put together class projected top 20.

Stop with all the talk that Groce can't coach- He is Coaching it right in front of your eyes.

We got something special happening Illinois fans- Embrace the moment. :illinois:
Click to expand...

The win streak is great and all, but it's not like were a beating world-beaters out here. The current 4 game win streaks is against the following teams (kenpom ratings in parenthesis): @ Iowa (71), Northwestern (36), @ Nebraska (94), and Michigan St. (50). It a decent streak, but if this is considered special for Illinois standards then our standards are much lower than I hoped for.

Also, it's a little concerning that the coaching took 25 games to take affect, especially when you are starting 3 seniors and redshirt sophomore.
 
#6,911      

bombayIllini

B
bombayIllini
fatGreg,

Great post.

Would like to add one item to your list.

Groce has been a creature of habit: bank on senior most players. That led him to not play the likes of Lucas at the earlier stages. And, of course, play Nichols Jan+.

I think that has been the biggest change for him - play your talent. Talent makes mistakes - even today they do. But talent recovers much faster than non-talent.

Nothing against Tate (I am very glad he is at the UoI), but a mistake made by Tate is more harmful than one made by Lucas.

Even when Tracy does not contribute it has sort of worked out. When the likes of Tracy have contributed, we win by double digits.

NEXT YEAR, Groce really has not too may options. Most of his team will be freshmen. And he ahs to play them - come what may. We MAY see some hiccups, but come mid term we should stabilize and by years end we should eb rocking.

My expectations.
 
#6,912      

EJ33

E
San Francisco
EJ33
CARPET said:
This team has finally found itself. The infusion of freshmen talent makes things exciting again.

I am all in for John Groce to coach next year with his well put together class projected top 20.

Stop with all the talk that Groce can't coach- He is Coaching it right in front of your eyes.

We got something special happening Illinois fans- Embrace the moment. :illinois:
Click to expand...

Wow, that's a pretty low bar for "special."

"Special" used to be reserved for a team with a good chance to make the Final Four - not a team with a good chance to make the bubble.
 
#6,913      

IlliniOllie

I
IlliniOllie
CARPET said:
This team has finally found itself. The infusion of freshmen talent makes things exciting again.

I am all in for John Groce to coach next year with his well put together class projected top 20.

Stop with all the talk that Groce can't coach- He is Coaching it right in front of your eyes.

We got something special happening Illinois fans- Embrace the moment. :illinois:
Click to expand...

We've seen our teams "find themselves" before after a horrendous January. It's the same thing again.

Special is not 9-9 and being on the NCAA bubble. Don't trip over that bar.
 
#6,914      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
cam said:
With the young players we have, Finke, Black, JCL as sophs, Lucas and Nichos FR and the top recruiting class it's not in shambles that's an exaggeration. I was at the game last night and watch every game I am not happy at all with where we have been but you have to give agree we now look good since Lucas has developed into a nice point guard. People wanting to ignore that are not being objective, if you know anything about basketball you can see he was worth several points on offense and defense over what we have put on the floor the last 3 or 4 years
Click to expand...


I agree Lucas has been a big addition. No question. As has Kipper -- another good pickup, especially on defense. And if they make progress, they can help the program improve, along with the other "ifs" that have to work out. And yes, the team has looked better. The defense is much better -- why now, vs. a month ago, I have no idea (Kipper and Lucas getting experience probably has something to do with it). And the offense looks good because jumpers are falling. At some point, the jumpers won't fall, and we'll look horrible again. But as for right now, the caption under the snapshot of this program is closer to "a shambles" than "a solid program". Can things get much better, and pretty quickly? Sure, they might. But I think it's not very likely with Groce at the helm, based on the "progress" I've seen over the past 4+ seasons.
 
#6,915      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
LurkLongandProsper said:
I just don't know how our offense functions without MH and MM. It could be fine, or it could absolutely cripple us. Those two make some really tough shots that a lot of guys don't make consistently at this level that keep us going at times. I think we can have a functional defense under Groce now that I've seen this stretch. But I have yet to see something that really convinces me we can do enough offensively to be a really good team under Groce. I think we need a Friday win in the BTT against a good team (would love another go at Purdue for this) to really see what sort of streak this is.
Click to expand...

This is my concern as well. Mav has turned into a dependable low-block scorer. We have nobody else on our team, and only possibly Tilmon on the radar, who can score from the low block. Leron has a nice jumper, but if there's nobody down low to worry about, he won't have those same looks. Malcolm makes tough shots, and has an effective old man game, but even he was only 6 for 16 from the field. We still take WAY too many jumpers, and once Mav's gone, we'll be taking ONLY jumpers. Groce has not shown any ability to install an offense that gets easy layups, or high percentage shots. Perhaps that can change -- Lucas has apparently displayed that it IS possible to have a pick and roll lead to an easy bucket on occasion. But three of those a game is not enough. And if Groce requires specific players with specific skills to have an effective offense, I don't think that's sustainable or predictable, because recruiting and player development are themselves not predictable.

Maybe we get Frazier in, and bring in Smith, too, and we're suddenly cutting and no-look-passing and layuping our opponents to death without a low post big guy. I'm not holding my breath for that, though.
 
#6,916      

drwillini

D
drwillini
At this point (25-51) vs. Utah not sure CM's star is shining so brightly. Sorry, I'm old school and not sure any team that takes pride in defense looks like this. And I thought this what we get from picking from the Keady tree. The O does look a little like Bruce's ;-)

I have been consistent over this time period. Groce should go, but only if there is clear upgrade. It would be a disaster to sign up for another 5 year experiment. Not sure Martin is the answer. But to be fair, this is the most I have watched of his team this year.
 
#6,917      

Tevo

Tevo
Wilmette, IL
Tevo
89illinigrad said:
Look, I get it, some people are still not confident in Groce and it would probably take a Sweet 16 run (or better) to convince some (while others probably wouldn't be convinced even if we win the whole thing). But, saying that Groce cannot get better is just as much of an opinion as saying the Groce can get better.
Click to expand...

This bugs me so much. Not you, Illinigrad, but this commonly mentioned idea that if you win a game or two in the tournament THAT somehow indicates that you are worth keeping, but if you lose 60% of your conference games, eh, the jury is still out. The tourney is a crap shoot. Depending on matchups and injuries and random "hot streaks", you can look great or horrible. It's one or two games -- 80 minutes of game time! That should NEVER be an important part of deciding to keep or fire a coach. Having a team that is consistent and consistently prepared and having players making clear progress towards improved skills and coherence as a team, and really just WINNING LOTS OF GAMES should. Groce got to the Sweet Sixteen in 2012. Does that somehow indicate that his team was among the best sixteen teams in the country? Of course not. They lost that year to Robert Morris and Toledo and Akron and Kent State. So how did they win those two tourney games? They got hot and they got good matchups. Those wins SHOULDN'T have really made Groce any more desirable as a hire than his 56-48 overall record the previous three years did. And two wins this year in the tourney shouldn't make a difference either.
 
#6,918      

LurkLongandProsper

L
C-U
LurkLongandProsper
drwillini said:
At this point (25-51) vs. Utah not sure CM's star is shining so brightly. Sorry, I'm old school and not sure any team that takes pride in defense looks like this. And I thought this what we get from picking from the Keady tree. The O does look a little like Bruce's ;-)

I have been consistent over this time period. Groce should go, but only if there is clear upgrade. It would be a disaster to sign up for another 5 year experiment. Not sure Martin is the answer. But to be fair, this is the most I have watched of his team this year.
Click to expand...

California has the #10 defense on KenPom. We are at 45th on the year. I'm not a huge Cuonzo guy, but let's make sure we're picking nits on the right points. The major questions with Cal are on the offensive end.
 
#6,923      

mattcoldagelli

mattcoldagelli
The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
mattcoldagelli
89illinigrad said:
But, saying that Groce cannot get better is just as much of an opinion as saying the Groce can get better.
Click to expand...

No! They're not equivalent! One is backed by over 5 years of evidence, the other is fueled by hope and an aversion to change.
 
#6,925      

DoctorofJazz

D
DoctorofJazz
whovous said:
The most interesting thing about this link for me is that MSU fans are smarter than Izzo in exactly the same way Illinois fans are smarter than Groce.
Click to expand...

The difference being Izzo has an established body of quality work at MSU vs. Groce.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.