I've been bearish on John Groce's ability to lead this team back to national relevance, but now that it feels likely he's retained, let's at least consider why he may be more successful going forward. Past performance is generally the best predictor of future outcomes, but it's in no way universally reliable. In fact, when you're talking about a complex chaotic system like the annual college basketball landscape, it can become a dangerous fallacy. Groce has a few things going for him as we look to the future:
1. When Groce arrived in Champaign, he stated explicitly that he ran a Point Guard-driven offense predicated on compromising the opposing defense by running a dynamic playmaker off ball screens. In so many words, that's what he said he wanted to do. When he won 29 games and made the S16 his last year at Ohio, that's incontrovertibly what he ran with DJ Cooper. Te'Jon Lucas is the first PG Groce has had at UI who can 1) get to the basket off the bounce, 2) shoot well enough to require defenders to go under screens, 3) find open shooters with regularity, and 4) defend quick opponents. Suddenly our offense and defense look completely different. Next year, Trent Frazier will likely be the backup PG and he's quicker than Lucas and by most accounts a better shooter. If Mark Smith commits, he's bigger than Lucas, a better shooter, and perhaps an equally gifted passer. Da'Monte projects more as a wing, but he's a good passer and ball handler, too. We might have four guys on the roster next year better at playing PG in Groce's system than anyone we've had the last five years. No one is giving Groce a pass for missing on so many Point Guards, but that issue would seem to be rectified going forward.
2. The way Groce has used Mav this year shows me that he's adjusted somewhat to Big Ten play. We were a donut offense in JG's first few years. Much of that was personnel-based, but I have a sense that Groce realized at some point you can't get good 3pt looks against physical, athletic B1G teams without threatening the paint. Tilmon is regarded as an advanced offensive player for his age. He's a good passer, has a few post moves, and can face up from 15 feet. I think (as a sophomore at least) he'll be able to do a lot of what Mav does offensively while providing something close to what Egwu did defensively - all while rebounding better than both.
3. As the season has progressed, I think it's safe to say that Lucas, JCL, Kipper, Aaron Jordan, Black, and Finke is a solid foundation going forward. We definitely need a 5th year banger to provide some rebounding and post defense off the bench. We could use another wing scorer as well. Too bad that DJ Williams doesn't seem to be a part of the future - he's got a lot of natural ability. However, this is a pretty decent roster.
4. Groce's teams have been decent to very good defensively apart from last year and the first 2/3 of this year. Now we look like a really good defensive team again. Incorporating Lucas and Nichols in the rotation has made a world of difference. Next year we may struggle a little while the freshmen get acclimated, but I don't think Groce is a bad defensive coach. Maybe this stretch can grow into the program's identity: relentless effort, ball denial, forcing turnovers. It's been fun to watch, right?
5. Groce is at least a pretty good recruiter. People like him. He's charismatic, passionate, and a genuinely good guy. He's got good relationships and the state and surrounding area are pumping out some of the best talent in two decades. I'm still not convinced that Groce is The Guy, but if you give him Tilmon, Mark Smith, Tim Finke, Dosunmu, Okoro, Liddell, Adam Miller, et al, can he get to the S16/E8? I say probably so. If Groce gets a 3yr extension, I think he can keep recruiting at a high level. As our talent level rises, I think we'll climb the conference ladder over the next 3-4 years.
6. If nothing else, Groce's guys will run through a brick wall for him. This team is like a family and they love Groce. Malcolm Hill loves him, Trent Frazier loves him. He's a good person and has a lot of high-level leadership traits. Maybe it's finally all coming together?
I've wanted a change. Frankly, I still do. However, I don't think keeping Groce will necessarily relegate the program to another decade of mediocrity. I think there's a fair chance he finds success here. I'd rather have Tony Bennett or Monty Williams. I'd maybe rather roll the dice with Keatts or even Anthony Grant. If Groce stays, though, I won't be shocked if he wins a B1G title in two years. I think his future success is plausible.