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Historically worse.......currenty not.
2017 Coaching Carousel
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Historically worse.......currenty not.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
Who even considered Lovie, given the state of our football program at the time? JW has proven to be able to think outside the box. I'm not convinced there isn't a "Lovie type" waiting in the wings.
Whitman is going to have a press conference after the NIT and he'll get up there with Groce and give his confidence to him and announce an extension with a very school friendly buyout. He'll talk about Henson and loyalty and maybe even "Togetherness". We'll all be here at the same time next year saying the same things. Bottom line, I don't think Whitman wants to fire him and he'll tell boosters and whomever else he needs to privately that there wasn't a good alternative lined up, not to mention the recruiting class.
The idea that Illinois basketball is unappealing is obtuse. The new coach coming in doesn't care what our record has been the past few years. We have some of the best facilities in college basketball, some of the best recruiting grounds in the country, a historically great basketball team, a passionate fan base, a school where basketball doesn't take a backseat to football, a newly renovated stadium, and a boss in JW who anyone would want to work for. We have everything here a coach could want and somehow our own fans have no clue.
Wittsdream
- Chicago
K-Billy DJ: "My studio phone just got lit up by Fighting Illini fans furious about their coach's complete and utter incompetence, and bringing a once-proud program down to its knees.......Actually, I'm not sure what an Illini is, but what the hoo.......so without further adieu.....Coach John Gross.......Ha, God sure was smiling when he gave you that name........Ahem.......Mr. Gross, if that really is your name, and you happen to be sipping on an especially overpriced cup of Starbuck's coffee on this Sunday morning.........this little ditty is brewed just for you.......Jigsaw's one-hit wonder from 1975........."Sky High"...........as K-Billy's Super Sounds of the 70's weekend just keeps on... truckin'."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GaxTPIPD34
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GaxTPIPD34
This "we can't hire a mid major coach because that won't be a home run hire" nonsense just has to stop.
K came to Duke from Army. Yes, I said Army.
Self came to IL from Tulsa.
Thad Matta, Bo Ryan, Matt Painter, Billy Donovan, John Calipari and multiple other successful coaches got their start somewhere other than power conference locations.
Hire the right guy. High major, Mid major, D2, JV coach from Shelbyville
just get the right guy.Do not want Martin.
MrOizo
- Chicago
I'm continuing to look at the Cuonzo Martin numbers before moving on to someone else. Two questions:
- Can he get talent?
Tennessee:
2012 class rank: #40 (1 4 star, 3 3 star)
2013 class rank: #34 (1 5 star, 3 3 star)
2014 class rank: #40 (1 4 star, 4 3 star)
Cal:
2015 class rank: #21 (2 5 star, 1 3 star)
2016 class rank: Unranked (1 4 star - Charlie Moore)
2017 class rank: #32 (1 4 star, 4 3 star)
- How efficient are his offense and defense?
Efficiency Ratings:
Missouri State:
2008-2009: Offense: #256 | Defense: #179
2009-2010: Offense: #35 | Defense: #140
2010-2011: Offense: #17 | Defense: #161
Tennessee:
2011-2012: Offense: #132 | Defense: #111
2012-2013: Offense: #127 | Defense: #118
2013-2014: Offense: #29 | Defense: #41
Cal:
2014-2015: Offense: #224 | Defense: #142
2015-2016: Offense: #84 | Defense: #39
2016-2017: Offense: #236 | Defense: #10
For comparison:
Illinois recruiting:
2012: 0 recruits
2013: #14 (2 4 star, 3 3 star)
2014: Unranked (1 4 star, 1 3 star)
2015: #16 (3 4 star, 2 3 star)
2016: Unranked (1 3 star)
2017: #11 (4 4 star, 1 3 star)
Illinois Efficiency:
2008-2009: Offense: #160 | Defense: #3
2009-2010: Offense: #111 | Defense: #108
2010-2011: Offense: #64 | Defense: #88
2011-2012: Offense: #180 | Defense: #109
2012-2013: Offense: #105 | Defense: #136
2013-2014: Offense: #224 | Defense: #54
2014-2015: Offense: #92 | Defense: #70
2015-2016: Offense: #196 | Defense: #239
2016-2017: Offense: #175 | Defense: #136
- Can he get talent?
Tennessee:
2012 class rank: #40 (1 4 star, 3 3 star)
2013 class rank: #34 (1 5 star, 3 3 star)
2014 class rank: #40 (1 4 star, 4 3 star)
Cal:
2015 class rank: #21 (2 5 star, 1 3 star)
2016 class rank: Unranked (1 4 star - Charlie Moore)
2017 class rank: #32 (1 4 star, 4 3 star)
- How efficient are his offense and defense?
Efficiency Ratings:
Missouri State:
2008-2009: Offense: #256 | Defense: #179
2009-2010: Offense: #35 | Defense: #140
2010-2011: Offense: #17 | Defense: #161
Tennessee:
2011-2012: Offense: #132 | Defense: #111
2012-2013: Offense: #127 | Defense: #118
2013-2014: Offense: #29 | Defense: #41
Cal:
2014-2015: Offense: #224 | Defense: #142
2015-2016: Offense: #84 | Defense: #39
2016-2017: Offense: #236 | Defense: #10
For comparison:
Illinois recruiting:
2012: 0 recruits
2013: #14 (2 4 star, 3 3 star)
2014: Unranked (1 4 star, 1 3 star)
2015: #16 (3 4 star, 2 3 star)
2016: Unranked (1 3 star)
2017: #11 (4 4 star, 1 3 star)
Illinois Efficiency:
2008-2009: Offense: #160 | Defense: #3
2009-2010: Offense: #111 | Defense: #108
2010-2011: Offense: #64 | Defense: #88
2011-2012: Offense: #180 | Defense: #109
2012-2013: Offense: #105 | Defense: #136
2013-2014: Offense: #224 | Defense: #54
2014-2015: Offense: #92 | Defense: #70
2015-2016: Offense: #196 | Defense: #239
2016-2017: Offense: #175 | Defense: #136
MrOizo
- Chicago
Agree 100%This "we can't hire a mid major coach because that won't be a home run hire" nonsense just has to stop.
K came to Duke from Army. Yes, I said Army.
Self came to IL from Tulsa.
Thad Matta, Bo Ryan, Matt Painter, Billy Donovan, John Calipari and multiple other successful coaches got their start somewhere other than power conference locations.
Hire the right guy. High major, Mid major, D2, JV coach from Shelbyville
- Your odds of having the next great coach at Illinois are 0% if you stick with Groce.
- Your odds of having the next great coach at Illinois based on next year's crop of coaching prospects vs. this year's prospects is likely not appreciably different.
Another year of data would be helpful, but it would also take some candidates off the market that could be "the next big thing". Sure, it will put a few other "next big thing" candidates out there, but it's not likely that they will be better (or that we will beat out others for them). In fact, our only real competition currently for a coach is NC State. It could be worse next year.
Finally, if we move on now and miss we will be one step closer to our next coaching switch. Seriously. More attempts at hiring the right coach = more likelihood that you find the right one.
Time to make a move.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
3 weeks ago, I was on the Cuonzo train. Then all the rumors came out about him wanting out of Cal, is that the cause of the taper here at the end of the season? Or, is he simply a mediocre coach? If he is the lower bar of our choices, I am ok with that. I think he would come, with no inside info.
MrOizo
- Chicago
Commenting on my post above, what do the numbers say to me about Cuonzo?
In the big picture, I'd like us to shoot higher. That said:
- He should recruit better at Illinois than at Cal and Tennessee. Better brand and recruiting ground. He's already been a more steady recruiter than Groce, though he doesn't have classes ranked as highly overall.
- He's recruited 3 5-stars in the last 5 years; we've had none of course.
- Martin has had 4 top 100 offenses the last 9 years. 3 top 50. We've had 2 top 100, 0 top 50.
- Martin has had only 3 top 100 (3 top 50) defenses the last 9 years. We have had 4.
I think Martin could improve our offense as I would expect him to increase recruiting noticeably. With the Keady-style motion, he should have enough talent to generally run it well. I'd be happier with Cuonzo than I am now FOR SURE. I think he would break our long 5-star recruit drought as well.
I don't love it, but I would be excited about the future as the recruiting and "good enough system" would be likely to upgrade us to a top 5 conference team in my opinion.
In the big picture, I'd like us to shoot higher. That said:
- He should recruit better at Illinois than at Cal and Tennessee. Better brand and recruiting ground. He's already been a more steady recruiter than Groce, though he doesn't have classes ranked as highly overall.
- He's recruited 3 5-stars in the last 5 years; we've had none of course.
- Martin has had 4 top 100 offenses the last 9 years. 3 top 50. We've had 2 top 100, 0 top 50.
- Martin has had only 3 top 100 (3 top 50) defenses the last 9 years. We have had 4.
I think Martin could improve our offense as I would expect him to increase recruiting noticeably. With the Keady-style motion, he should have enough talent to generally run it well. I'd be happier with Cuonzo than I am now FOR SURE. I think he would break our long 5-star recruit drought as well.
I don't love it, but I would be excited about the future as the recruiting and "good enough system" would be likely to upgrade us to a top 5 conference team in my opinion.
Problem with that statement is that the process is not memoryless. Timing matters. Every time you make a change, you lock yourself in 5-6 years at a time. Sure, you can try 3-4 times, but 20 years have gone by. The next hiring would be extremely critical when it happens. Just ABG, even if we miss, is not a viable strategy.
MrOizo
- Chicago
Cal has really dropped off the last two weeks and went from "likely NCAA tourney team" to NIT. There's some recency bias at work here. A key question: What was expected this year at Cal with this team?
Here's an article with some thoughts on it:
http://www.californiagoldenblogs.co...view-part-1-a-third-cuonzo-martin-reinvention
The year is a failed "reinvention" by Cuonzo, where the offense sucks and they've had to double-down on defense (#10 defensive efficiency in the country). We wouldn't be happy with this, but at least it wasn't a total surprise.
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MrOizo
- Chicago
Certainly true. I just think that JW needs to give a full replacement effort and either a) find no viable candidates and learn a lot for next year, or b) find a candidate that has just enough likelihood for success and pull the trigger. If there are any signs of a "JW banked on not going to the market this time around", I'm sure many of us will be livid.
IlliniInOK
- no longer in OK! Centralia, IL
This is exactly my thought. We have enough proof that he won't do it. Let's try something else that has a chance at working.
The premise that JW can "find" those candidates before he fires Groce, so if he he does not, he could wait another year and then fire him, is a faulty one IMO as well. Unless you fire a coach, you do not know who you will get. If that was possible, as I have said multiple times, schools with a lot more resources, boosters, and networking connections (e.g., UCLA, Oregon, OK State) would have done the same and avoided embarrassing searches. Whitman is a promising AD, but he is no magician, neither is he smarter than everyone else. But he is smart enough to know that he will not have a career in this profession by burning bridges and not following the right protocol (both for the current coach and new one).
IF Whitman decides on to keep Groce, it would mean that he has decided to give another try to Groce, so Groce would certainly be here for at least one more year. It would not mean that he has decided to keep Groce one more year, but would surely fire him next year when in the background works a deal with a coach behind everyone's back. IF he decides to fire Groce, it would mean that he has decided to make a change and take his chances trying to find another coach once that happens, get a search going.
There are currently chances for both happening, either scenario would not surprise me. People are trying to convince themselves that the scenario that they want, is the one that is guaranteed to happen.
Every hiring is critical. You've only got two revenue sports. That's why, when you know you have the wrong guy in one of those two sports, you have to make a change.
Different coaches will all have different likelihoods of success. We do know one thing, though - John Groce has a 0% likelihood of success. And kicking the can down the road only introduces the same uncertainties next year, but with another year of irrelevance on top. Maybe the candidate pool won't be any better. Maybe Roy or Coach K or Boeheim or someone at a top program will leave, shifting the candidate pool down a level. The same alleged "reasons" for not launching Groce this year exist every year.
It's time to move on. Flushing another season down the toilet is an awful option.
MrOizo
- Chicago
You're right. I was imagining that some feelers could go out to potential candidates but I have no idea how prevalent or effective that is. It's only logical that it is not very effective at all, as you suggest.
In which case, Groce must be let go from my viewpoint. It's as good a year as any.
Redbirds33333
- Chicago, IL
Timeline
If Groce is relieved of his duties, what does the timeline look like?
Will it be directly after the NIT? Or will Whitman do more like he did with Lovie and wait until he has his guy?
If Groce is relieved of his duties, what does the timeline look like?
Will it be directly after the NIT? Or will Whitman do more like he did with Lovie and wait until he has his guy?
Again, this is the ABG strategy, and the supported premise that we could not do worse, that Groce is the absolute rock bottom. When you have a search, you could certainly end up with someone even worse, and lose 5-6 years in addition to that. You could end up with someone like Bruce Weber, who took the program from point A (2003) and got us to point B (2012). And while I am not a fan of Weber, he is certainly not the only bad coach who people have made a mistake on, thinking that things could get better. The decision involves many risks either way, both scenarios (fire or not fire).
Whitman essentially hired Lovie his first day on the job. Can't be any quicker than that.
IMO Groce is fired either right after the BTT or after their first round loss in the NIT. Obviously you have to wait a week before a new hire can be official, even if a handshake agreement has already taken place.
I'm with you, and that would be a terrible turn of events. It is finally time to open the check book and get a good (big name if available) coach who can win. I cannot remember a time in recent history when we didn't go to the tournament 4 years in a row. We've come to expect disappointment from the football program but the basketball program was always at least good, sometimes great. A quick exit from the BTT would be the best medicine. I still feel bad for Malcome and wish him the best in the NBA.
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CrazedUIFan
UI Fan in QC Land
I feel for Whitman right now. Not because he is paid big money to handle these types of situations, but because he has set a high standard with how the coaching change happened with football. To expect him to do something similar with basketball is over zealous I think. His roots are in football. He had an advantage with football. I don't know that he does in basketball circles.
There are certainly merits and risks on both viewpoints, either side of the decision. Eventually, Whitman will announce a decision after post-season (if any) is over. Even if it is a done deal in his mind, or heavily leaning towards one side of the decision currently, I do not believe that people can say with certainty what that decision will be.
Agreed. Five years of abysmal mediocrity is about two years too many in my opinion. I wanted Groce canned after last year. If not now, then I will be starting a dump Whitman crusade and this situation will feel like spending an eternity in quicksand. Just think if they had found a way to hang on to Bill Self all these years. I know, that would be like if they had hired Urban Meyer instead of Tim Beckmann. Let's get a quality coach this time, not some guy bought at a garage sale because he had one good year in some small conference and he's cheap. You get what you pay for. Hear that Whitman?
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