2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel

Ander1345 · Sep 27, 2019

Dude said:
The GT is where I was looking at what realistically IL could become under that system. And I just watched that one game, so not a GT expert, but I came away thinking they won because of their defense. The offense did just enough on their own and helped the defense stay fresh.
The more and more I get into it, I keep coming away with having no issues with our current O and D systems. It is more to do with the players execution. That is either the result of talent or teaching ability. We have both those negatives PLUS lacking the ability to make in game coaching decisions. Not a good combo

I have less issues with the O(I think it's just Rod's inexperience with calling plays and general coordinating).

I have a ton of issues with the D. Lovie's defenses down the stretch during his Bears tenure post-SB were mediocre to arguably modestly above average. I don't think the system works at the college level and nearly 5 years of it haven't swayed me. The weird staffing vacancy and Lovie "owning the mess" by making himself the DC kind of feels like a slap in the face to fans. He didn't have trouble filling the DC position I the NFL... there was no one he wanted to fill the position?? To me it screams ego which is so out of character for Lovie. He doesn't seem the same. Maybe the game has passed his system up or who knows what...????

I'm tired of hearing how beat up our D is. I know we have injuries, but other teams defend better with less.

KBLEE · Sep 27, 2019

Dude said:
You can say that killing the clock on O helped keep the D fresh. But can we not do that with the offense we currently have?

Is it possible? Yes. Have we seen it under Lovie (or anyone since Zook)? No.

champaignchris · Sep 27, 2019

Ander1345 said:
Lovie's defenses down the stretch during his Bears tenure post-SB were mediocre to arguably modestly above average.

His 2010 and 2012 defenses were just as good as the Super Bowl defenses. This was after they brought in Peppers and got Jennings as a competent CB opposite Tillman.

Note that these defenses would have been good regardless of the scheme used - Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers and Tillman will all eventually be in the Hall and Melton and Jennings were both Pro Bowlers. It’s not like Smith’s scheme is what made them good.

ETA - 2010 is also when they brought in Marinelli to be DC. He is, of course, still to this day a very successful DC with the Cowboys.

FGCUIllini · Sep 27, 2019

Just curious, if someone asked you today if you would take the following record over the next "x" years, would you take it?

Season	Reg	Conf	Conf Finish (Division)	BOWL
2013	7–6	4–4	T–3rd	L
2014	7–6	4–4	4th	L
2015	3–9	0–8	7th
2016	7–6	2–6	T–6th	W
2017	7–6	4–4	T–3rd	L
2018	7–5	4–4	4th
2019	3–1	1–0	TBD

Ander1345 · Sep 27, 2019

champaignchris said:
His 2010 and 2012 defenses were just as good as the Super Bowl defenses. This was after they brought in Peppers and got Jennings as a competent CB opposite Tillman.

Note that these defenses would have been good regardless of the scheme used - Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers and Tillman will all eventually be in the Hall and Melton and Jennings were both Pro Bowlers. It’s not like Smith’s scheme is what made them good.

ETA - 2010 is also when they brought in Marinelli to be DC. He is, of course, still to this day a very successful DC with the Cowboys.

That's true. Jennings led the league in picks one year iirc now.

So why couldn't we get a DC? The scheme does not seem to be working at all.

Ander1345 · Sep 27, 2019

FGCUIllini said:
Just curious, if someone asked you today if you would take the following record over the next "x" years, would you take it?

Season Reg Conf Conf Finish (Division) BOWL
2013 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2014 7–6 4–4 4th L
2015 3–9 0–8 7th
2016 7–6 2–6 T–6th W
2017 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2018 7–5 4–4 4th
2019 3–1 1–0 TBD

I think I would, but a lot is riding on how 3-1 so far ends up...

Whether or not the next step can be made is at the root of all of this. Right now we are stomping in place.

ChiefGritty · Sep 27, 2019

FGCUIllini said:
Just curious, if someone asked you today if you would take the following record over the next "x" years, would you take it?

Season Reg Conf Conf Finish (Division) BOWL
2013 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2014 7–6 4–4 4th L
2015 3–9 0–8 7th
2016 7–6 2–6 T–6th W
2017 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2018 7–5 4–4 4th
2019 3–1 1–0 TBD

Steve Addazio! Right?

And he's done that at a tough, tough place to win.

Of course, he turned down leaving Temple for Illinois, so why would he leave Boston College for Illinois?

Hoppy2105 · Sep 27, 2019

Going 0-8 in year three would be a tough pill to swallow for this fan base. But to start out with 2 bowl games is nice.

The bounce back in year 4 would be pleasant followed by a 7-5 regular season would be good.

Yeah, I’d take it. I’d want to see 8 wins this year though otherwise I’d be afraid we found our ceiling.

BananaShampoo · Sep 27, 2019

I'd take it honestly. Reminds me a lot of what Glen Mason did at Minny, though he did have that one really nice 10 win season in '03. Eventually he got fired because fan/program expectations got too high and they got dissatisfied with "just" regular bowl appearances. I can only hope we reach that level again someday.

illinoistradition · Sep 27, 2019

BananaShampoo said:
I'd take it honestly. Reminds me a lot of what Glen Mason did at Minny, though he did have that one really nice 10 win season in '03. Eventually he got fired because fan/program expectations got too high and they got dissatisfied with "just" regular bowl appearances. I can only hope we reach that level again someday.

And then look at that program since then...not Illinois bad, but nowhere near that consistency.

LFOD · Sep 27, 2019

BZuppke said:
I’ve not been a fan of any football hire since Mike White. That being said, the Mackovic, Turner and Beckman (yes him too) were considered good hires by outside observers. I remember espn saying that Beckman with his Urban Meyer connection was an underrated hire.

That being said, I don’t know how he got through the interview. The guy is goofy and the lasagna/weenies shtick was just weird.

The Mackovic, Turner and Lovie hires looked decent to me.

Tepper, Zook and Beckman hires should never have happened.

illini0440 · Sep 27, 2019

LFOD said:
The Mackovic, Turner and Lovie hires looked decent to me.

Tepper, Zook and Beckman hires should never have happened.

You don't think Zook should have been hired? What?

ChiefGritty · Sep 27, 2019

LFOD said:
The Mackovic, Turner and Lovie hires looked decent to me.

Tepper, Zook and Beckman hires should never have happened.

We haven't had a big stinker football hire of the Derek Dooley, David Beaty, Jon Embree ilk. (That's the Mount Rushmore of recent Power Five hires whose resumes just didn't even pass the straight face test)

The worst qualified revenue HC hire of the modern era we've had is almost certainly John Groce.

Well, I guess I'm not including Not Ideal in that. That was that sort of moment, but it proved to be so temporary, and it also wasn't one of those situations where you stick your hook in the water and come up with nothing.

Madco Illini · Sep 27, 2019

ChiefGritty said:
Disagree with these. They like Mason a lot at Vandy, and are aware it's an impossible job. And Morris is probably a dead man walking at Arkansas, but they won't do it this year.

Illinois is nowhere near Tennessee, even in the state they've found themselves in.

I was once the conductor of the Babers hype train, going all the way back to EIU. So it's been a surprise to see how out of control it's gotten.

Babers is 20-21 at Syracuse, 10-15 in the ACC. He's also 58 years old. And he's gonna be the guy at FSU or Michigan? I can't see it.

The conflation of running the football with killing the clock obscures more than it reveals. We're a tempo offense under Rod Smith, especially at our best. The Paul Johnson school generally intentionally plays as slow as possible.

Army was #1 nationally in time of possession last year by a country mile, over four minutes per game longer holding the ball than the next closest team. Illinois was 103rd.

It's a defense-friendly system. As I said earlier in the thread, it's from the ground up just a conceptually different theory of how to end 60 minutes of football with more points than your opponent.

I have mixed feelings here. Mason only has 3-4 winnable games if he only wins 2 or 3 games that might force their hands. Also his buyout is private but I’d assume it’s not that bad.

As far as Tennessee I’d agree in a typical year but realistically Illinois might be able to outspend them this year by 1 or 2 million because they would be on the hook for 2 other coaches salaries. Also how much does having 4 or 5 coaches over the last decade matter? Does the incoming coaches look at the potential stability of being able to come in an not feel a ton of pressure right away?

Twangers · Sep 27, 2019

Madco Illini said:
I have mixed feelings here. Mason only has 3-4 winnable games if he only wins 2 or 3 games that might force their hands. Also his buyout is private but I’d assume it’s not that bad.

As far as Tennessee I’d agree in a typical year but realistically Illinois might be able to outspend them this year by 1 or 2 million because they would be on the hook for 2 other coaches salaries. Also how much does having 4 or 5 coaches over the last decade matter? Does the incoming coaches look at the potential stability of being able to come in an not feel a ton of pressure right away?

Generally speaking, if you’re a hot young coach (Which seem to be the type candidate people are discussing here) that is confident in your abilities, you’re never going to shy away from a high end salary at a major SEC program to settle for 4-5 years at a program like ours. That’s what older, lower end coaches do.

Madco Illini · Sep 27, 2019

Twangers said:
Generally speaking, if you’re a hot young coach (Which seem to be the type candidate people are discussing here) that is confident in your abilities, you’re never going to shy away from a high end salary at a major SEC program to settle for 4-5 years at a program like ours. That’s what older, lower end coaches do.

Yea I total agree, generally, but let’s say UT can only afford 3 million a year vs Illinois 5 million (this would be the high end). Also wasn’t our assistant pool larger a year or 2 ago before lovie hired all these no names?I remember Whitman okaying a top 3 or 4 assistant pool in the big 10. I dunno how much those salary gaps matter.

Twangers · Sep 27, 2019

Madco Illini said:
Yea I total agree, generally, but let’s say UT can only afford 3 million a year vs Illinois 5 million (this would be the high end). Also wasn’t our assistant pool larger a year or 2 ago before lovie hired all these no names?I remember Whitman okaying a top 3 or 4 assistant pool in the big 10. I dunno how much those salary gaps matter.

All I have are figures from last season but at that point, Tennessee was paying their assistants about 2M more than we were in total compensation. That was before they backed the Brinks truck up to Derrick Ansley’s place. We can’t compete with that.

ChiefGritty · Sep 27, 2019

Twangers said:
Generally speaking, if you’re a hot young coach (Which seem to be the type candidate people are discussing here) that is confident in your abilities, you’re never going to shy away from a high end salary at a major SEC program to settle for 4-5 years at a program like ours. That’s what older, lower end coaches do.

Tennessee is a job at which it's possible to have legit national championship aspirations, but that is also the expectation level of the school and the fanbase and there are major, major hurdles to meeting that expectation level.

Illinois does not have nearly that high of ceiling in the medium term. What we do have though is exceedingly low expectations among fans and critically the college football community at large, and basically nothing standing in the way of achieving them. Which is good in two ways, first, having a clear path to success, but also, being seen as successful at a place like Illinois could be a springboard to the elite of the elite, jobs where national titles are more achievable than at Tennessee.

Tennessee is a dilapidated house on the nicest street in town. Illinois is in the slums but with good bones and move-in ready. As they say in real estate, location, location, location.

Twangers · Sep 27, 2019

ChiefGritty said:
Tennessee is a job at which it's possible to have legit national championship aspirations, but that is also the expectation level of the school and the fanbase and there are major, major hurdles to meeting that expectation level.

Illinois does not have nearly that high of ceiling in the medium term. What we do have though is exceedingly low expectations among fans and critically the college football community at large, and basically nothing standing in the way of achieving them. Which is good in two ways, first, having a clear path to success, but also, being seen as successful at a place like Illinois could be a springboard to the elite of the elite, jobs where national titles are more achievable than at Tennessee.

Tennessee is a dilapidated house on the nicest street in town. Illinois is in the slums but with good bones and move-in ready. As they say in real estate, location, location, location.

Interesting way to put it. I’m less inclined to view us a springboard for larger opportunities but in general, this sounds about right.

If you’re a young up and comer, you take the job at Tennessee or Ole Miss ten times out of ten. You raise your profile exponentially, make the big salary and try to break through in the most high profile conference in collegiate football. And if that doesn’t work, you’re still 30-40 years old. You’ll get another job (Maybe even the Illinois job!). Illinois doesn’t offer this type of attractiveness.

All reality, there’s probably 6 jobs that I see that are high probability opens that will be more attractive than ours. If our expectation is to land a top 5 candidate in this cycle, we’re setting ourselves up for a massive failure.

champaignchris · Sep 27, 2019

FGCUIllini said:
Just curious, if someone asked you today if you would take the following record over the next "x" years, would you take it?

Season Reg Conf Conf Finish (Division) BOWL
2013 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2014 7–6 4–4 4th L
2015 3–9 0–8 7th
2016 7–6 2–6 T–6th W
2017 7–6 4–4 T–3rd L
2018 7–5 4–4 4th
2019 3–1 1–0 TBD

Yes. Every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Madco Illini · Sep 27, 2019

Twangers said:
All I have are figures from last season but at that point, Tennessee was paying their assistants about 2M more than we were in total compensation. That was before they backed the Brinks truck up to Derrick Ansley’s place. We can’t compete with that.

What was the difference in 2016, when we had a top 3 assistant pool in the big ten. I remember hearing about it and I tried to find the exact allotment but only found a part where is said we were behind only Michigan and OHio state. Of course in subsequent years we hired assistants we didn’t have to pay that much to. It was available, supposedly. Here is the article that states it https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndic...ll-be-the-big-ten-wests-jim-harbaugh.amp.html. LOL to lovie being the harbaugh of the West. They are only similar in that they both maybe on the hotseat. I also agree with all this Tennessee/Illinois stuff as u can see by my ranking of jobs just think this is an unusual year where we are closer to them, where typically we aren’t in the same stratosphere. We need to capitalize on this once in a life time opportunity.

champaignchris · Sep 27, 2019

illini0440 said:
You don't think Zook should have been hired? What?

I agree. Zook was a bad hire from Day 1.

The guy was born to be “linebackers coach/recruiting coordinator” at a top 15 program. But not a head football coach.

Madco Illini · Sep 27, 2019

Twangers said:
Interesting way to put it. I’m less inclined to view us a springboard for larger opportunities but in general, this sounds about right.

If you’re a young up and comer, you take the job at Tennessee or Ole Miss ten times out of ten. You raise your profile exponentially, make the big salary and try to break through in the most high profile conference in collegiate football. And if that doesn’t work, you’re still 30-40 years old. You’ll get another job (Maybe even the Illinois job!). Illinois doesn’t offer this type of attractiveness.

All reality, there’s probably 6 jobs that I see that are high probability opens that will be more attractive than ours. If our expectation is to land a top 5 candidate in this cycle, we’re setting ourselves up for a massive failure.

I’m wondering which jobs that you think will be open? A lot of them have large or multiple buyouts attached. Also, most are in year 2, barring a scandal most coaches get 3 years. Maybe this money isn’t the obstacle I think it is. The big boys probably have a huge donation/boaster base to draw from on speed dial.

ChiefGritty · Sep 27, 2019

Twangers said:
If you’re a young up and comer, you take the job at Tennessee or Ole Miss ten times out of ten.

But Tennessee isn't offering the young up-and-comer, that's the thing. Chip Long ain't the next head coach at Tennessee. Their fans would burn down the stadium.

Michigan, USC, we're not shopping in the same aisle. We know we're not getting Urban Meyer or Bob Stoops. They aren't looking at Jeff Monken.

The place where the two intersect is the tippy-top of the mid-major market, Mike Norvell working fine as the stand-in example. It was Kevin Sumlin in 2011.

The jobs you don't want open are the ones with similar but slightly better clout, especially if they're in the same region.

Madco Illini said:
I’m wondering which jobs that you think will be open? A lot of them have large or multiple buyouts attached. Also, most are in year 2, barring a scandal most coaches get 3 years. Maybe this money isn’t the obstacle I think it is. The big boys probably have a huge donation/boaster base to draw from on speed dial.

Yeah I don't see a huge carousel this year either, personally. Helton and Taggart are probably toast, and of course jobs of that size could start a cascade, but I don't anticipate mass chaos.

Twangers · Sep 27, 2019

Madco Illini said:
I’m wondering which jobs that you think will be open? A lot of them have large or multiple buyouts attached. Also, most are in year 2, barring a scandal most coaches get 3 years. Maybe this money isn’t the obstacle I think it is. The big boys probably have a huge donation/boaster base to draw from on speed dial.

90%
USC
Florida State
Ole Miss
Tennessee

75%
Michigan
Virginia Tech

You are overrating the buyout factor. The schools mentioned above have more than enough available funding to land the candidate of their choosing.

2019-20 Coaching Discussion/Carousel

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