B1G Bracketology
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Daniel,
any chance of running your program over Friday night so that we can watch the weekend games with the best info available?
any chance of running your program over Friday night so that we can watch the weekend games with the best info available?
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Sure thing! Just upgraded the old dinosaur laptop with a new solid-state drive and it seems like it's good to go. Will try to post those tonight.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
As requested, here's the latest. With only 7 games left in the year, there are only 128 possible combinations of outcomes left, and even the most unlikely is only a 1-in-8000 shot, so the simulation should be capturing everything many times.
Some interesting stuff going on this year. MSU is probably going to get the 2 seed since Pomeroy gives them a 91% chance to beat OSU, but if they don't they could fall as far as the 7 in a 4, 5, or 6 way tie scenario. Meanwhile, Maryland only has an outside shot at the 2, but it looks like they're guaranteed a top 4 seed and a double-bye. PSU would also seem to have more motivation than us on Sunday - if they win, they're guaranteed to avoid a Wednesday game, whereas we're just determining whether we open against Minny or Rutgers.
The tiebreaker chart complements what we can see from the seeding breakdown. If tiebreakers were just coin tosses (or anything arbitrary), the 2-7 seeds would all be totally up for grabs between six teams, and Michigan could range from 5th to 8th seed as well. I'm doing back of the envelope math here but I come up with a number of possible seeding combinations for the 2-8 that's between 864 and 2800. However, due to the particular B1G tiebreaking procedure, the actual number of combinations is less than that (a number I won't even try to come up with right now).
It's easier to see what that looks like in the 9-12 seeds. There are 4 teams and they all play each other (IL @ PSU and Neb. @ NW), so there are only 4 possible sets of final records to compare.
Winners ----- Final order, ties indicated ---- Possible outcomes with arbitrary tiebreaker
IL/Neb. ------ Neb>NW (T), IL>PSU (T) ---- 4
IL/NW ------- NW, Neb, IL>PSU (T) -------- 2 (both duplicates from previous line)
PSU/Neb. --- PSU>Neb>NW (T), IL ------- 6 (2 duplicates from line 1 w/PSU third)
PSU/NW ---- NW, PSU, Neb, IL ----------- 1 (duplicate from previous line)
That means there are 4 potential orderings in reality, but 8 potential orderings if tiebreakers are varied. At the start of the season, you'd think every possible ordering of the final standings (14!, or ~87 billion) would be in play even with a particular tiebreaking procedure chosen, so somewhere during the season enough results are set that the tiebreaker starts to restrict the potential outcomes. With all the data I've pulled down at various points this season (much more than I've processed and posted) it might be possible to identify a point in the season where that happens.
Some interesting stuff going on this year. MSU is probably going to get the 2 seed since Pomeroy gives them a 91% chance to beat OSU, but if they don't they could fall as far as the 7 in a 4, 5, or 6 way tie scenario. Meanwhile, Maryland only has an outside shot at the 2, but it looks like they're guaranteed a top 4 seed and a double-bye. PSU would also seem to have more motivation than us on Sunday - if they win, they're guaranteed to avoid a Wednesday game, whereas we're just determining whether we open against Minny or Rutgers.
The tiebreaker chart complements what we can see from the seeding breakdown. If tiebreakers were just coin tosses (or anything arbitrary), the 2-7 seeds would all be totally up for grabs between six teams, and Michigan could range from 5th to 8th seed as well. I'm doing back of the envelope math here but I come up with a number of possible seeding combinations for the 2-8 that's between 864 and 2800. However, due to the particular B1G tiebreaking procedure, the actual number of combinations is less than that (a number I won't even try to come up with right now).
It's easier to see what that looks like in the 9-12 seeds. There are 4 teams and they all play each other (IL @ PSU and Neb. @ NW), so there are only 4 possible sets of final records to compare.
Winners ----- Final order, ties indicated ---- Possible outcomes with arbitrary tiebreaker
IL/Neb. ------ Neb>NW (T), IL>PSU (T) ---- 4
IL/NW ------- NW, Neb, IL>PSU (T) -------- 2 (both duplicates from previous line)
PSU/Neb. --- PSU>Neb>NW (T), IL ------- 6 (2 duplicates from line 1 w/PSU third)
PSU/NW ---- NW, PSU, Neb, IL ----------- 1 (duplicate from previous line)
That means there are 4 potential orderings in reality, but 8 potential orderings if tiebreakers are varied. At the start of the season, you'd think every possible ordering of the final standings (14!, or ~87 billion) would be in play even with a particular tiebreaking procedure chosen, so somewhere during the season enough results are set that the tiebreaker starts to restrict the potential outcomes. With all the data I've pulled down at various points this season (much more than I've processed and posted) it might be possible to identify a point in the season where that happens.
So after today's results, here's how the seeds look going into the final day of the regular season. These are the seeds that have been clinched thus far:
1. Indiana
2. Michigan State
7. Ohio State
8. Michigan
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers
Per, BTN's stat guys, here's how the rest of the conference seeding can break down:
Wisconsin: Clinches double-bye and #3 seed with win at Purdue; Can’t clinch a double bye with a loss; Clinches #5 seed with a loss + Iowa loss; Could fall as low as #6 seed with a loss + Iowa win
Maryland: Clinched double-bye; Clinches #3 seed with win + Wisconsin loss; Can also clinch #3 seed even with a loss: That would be Iowa win + Wisconsin loss; Clinches #4 seed if Wisconsin beats Purdue
Iowa: Can clinch double-bye and # 4 seed with win + Maryland win + Wisconsin loss; Any other scenario locks Iowa outside of Top 4 seeds; Will clinch #6 seed with a loss + Wisconsin win; Will clinch #7 seed with a loss + Wisconsin loss
Purdue: Can clinch double-bye with a win vs Wisconsin but would also need help; Only way they don’t clinch a double-bye with a win is with wins by Iowa and Maryland; Will finish outside Top 5 seeds with a loss; Can clinch #3 seed with a win + Iowa loss + Maryland loss (Boilermakers have the biggest possible range of seeds among B1G teams as they can go anywhere between 3 and 7)
Northwestern: Will clinch #9 seed and single-bye with a win vs Nebraska; Can also clinch single-bye even with a loss if Penn State loses vs Illinois; Will not clinch a single-bye with a loss + Penn State win + Maryland loss + Wisconsin win
Penn State: Will clinch single-bye with a win vs Illinois; Can clinch #9 seed with win vs Illinois + Northwestern loss vs Nebraska; Can clinch #10 seed with win + Northwestern win; Will clinch #12 seed with a loss
Nebraska: Will clinch single-bye with a win at Northwestern OR a Penn State loss vs Illinois; Can clinch #9 seed with win at Northwestern + Penn State loss + Wisconsin loss; Will clinch #10 seed with loss at Northwestern + Penn State loss; Guaranteed the #11 seed and opening on Wednesday with a loss + Penn State win
Illinois: Will play on Wednesday no matter what. Will clinch #11 seed with a win at Penn State; Will clinch #12 seed with a loss
1. Indiana
2. Michigan State
7. Ohio State
8. Michigan
13. Minnesota
14. Rutgers
Per, BTN's stat guys, here's how the rest of the conference seeding can break down:
Wisconsin: Clinches double-bye and #3 seed with win at Purdue; Can’t clinch a double bye with a loss; Clinches #5 seed with a loss + Iowa loss; Could fall as low as #6 seed with a loss + Iowa win
Maryland: Clinched double-bye; Clinches #3 seed with win + Wisconsin loss; Can also clinch #3 seed even with a loss: That would be Iowa win + Wisconsin loss; Clinches #4 seed if Wisconsin beats Purdue
Iowa: Can clinch double-bye and # 4 seed with win + Maryland win + Wisconsin loss; Any other scenario locks Iowa outside of Top 4 seeds; Will clinch #6 seed with a loss + Wisconsin win; Will clinch #7 seed with a loss + Wisconsin loss
Purdue: Can clinch double-bye with a win vs Wisconsin but would also need help; Only way they don’t clinch a double-bye with a win is with wins by Iowa and Maryland; Will finish outside Top 5 seeds with a loss; Can clinch #3 seed with a win + Iowa loss + Maryland loss (Boilermakers have the biggest possible range of seeds among B1G teams as they can go anywhere between 3 and 7)
Northwestern: Will clinch #9 seed and single-bye with a win vs Nebraska; Can also clinch single-bye even with a loss if Penn State loses vs Illinois; Will not clinch a single-bye with a loss + Penn State win + Maryland loss + Wisconsin win
Penn State: Will clinch single-bye with a win vs Illinois; Can clinch #9 seed with win vs Illinois + Northwestern loss vs Nebraska; Can clinch #10 seed with win + Northwestern win; Will clinch #12 seed with a loss
Nebraska: Will clinch single-bye with a win at Northwestern OR a Penn State loss vs Illinois; Can clinch #9 seed with win at Northwestern + Penn State loss + Wisconsin loss; Will clinch #10 seed with loss at Northwestern + Penn State loss; Guaranteed the #11 seed and opening on Wednesday with a loss + Penn State win
Illinois: Will play on Wednesday no matter what. Will clinch #11 seed with a win at Penn State; Will clinch #12 seed with a loss
Well, the first step is beating a team 3 times in a season. Odds seem low but you never know.
Then we have to beat an Iowa team that handled us well earlier but has been struggling.
Then it's on to a Purdue team that we played well against but I can't see us catching lightning in a bottle twice.
I think if we play the best ball we have played all season, then we have a chance (a small one) to make it to the semi-finals. After that, in order to make the dance, we would have to play our 4th and 5th games in as many days, against 2 teams (most likely IU, MSU, or Maryland) that have literally spanked us this year.
It isn't going to happen but, man, if we won the BTT that would be a story for the ages.
Then we have to beat an Iowa team that handled us well earlier but has been struggling.
Then it's on to a Purdue team that we played well against but I can't see us catching lightning in a bottle twice.
I think if we play the best ball we have played all season, then we have a chance (a small one) to make it to the semi-finals. After that, in order to make the dance, we would have to play our 4th and 5th games in as many days, against 2 teams (most likely IU, MSU, or Maryland) that have literally spanked us this year.
It isn't going to happen but, man, if we won the BTT that would be a story for the ages.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I agree that beating a team x3 in a year is difficult, but this Minny team is so thin that the odds are much higher IMO. I'm sure they want to win and advance as badly as our guys do, but we've got a better roster (I can't believe I can type that and know it to be true) and IMO a better coach.
Win and move on, guys.
Yeah, I know nothing has been easy for us this year, but this is almost like getting a bye.
haasi
- New York
And even better than a bye if you care about JCL's pursuit of the threes record, which to my mind is about all we're playing for at this point
I can agree with that. Just have to treat each possession like it's gold and stick to the game plan. Maybe we can start pulling rabbits out of our hats.