He is EXCITING. I hope Miller stays 2 to 3 years as that combo is going to be really, really good. Hawkins looked like a player too.
Baylor 82, Illinois 69 Postgame
Underwood is better than Groce, but I do have some concerns about in game adjustments. For example, the Ayo at the top and create all day was terrible. The Ohio Game, not trying to get the ball out of Preston's hands, or at least some press or zone?
IlliniRon
Illini Basketball Fan Forever
- Ft Worth, Texas
It's good to have a game like that early in the season. Baylor is really a top team and we just had a lot of weaknesses exposed in the second half. Defense, rebounding, turnovers and other lapses were really noticeable compared to Baylor's game. Ayo seemed like he was forcing the ball and against better defenders he struggled on offense most of the game. Kofi looked like a freshman again, bad hands inside and gave up easy fouls to find himself on the bench. Not impressive for two NBA prospects. Hope to see a better team against Duke.
I think he will learn from it though. My one concern for Ayo is that he seems to be making it his team too much though. Underwood needs to get Ayo the ball more off of screens and creating from mid arc though instead of at top of key. As many others have said, let Curbelo initiate. However, this is only Curbelo's 4th game and you don't want to create friction with Trent. I would let Trent also initiate too some - let him split with Ayo. However, to me offensively, the biggest issue is we take to long to set up our offense. We need more off ball movement, more passing and quicker in trying to get Kofi the ball. Whether it is on coach, or Ayo, we need to get others touches quickly. I like Miller's confidence and off ball movement.
One thing I will say that despite loss, I'm just glad to have a good team again with young talent to help when studs such as Ayo/Kofi move on. Hope we can find some more talent for upcoming classes. Also, nice to see Giorgi get some confidence and really like how Williams is playing.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Stat of the game (visual form to follow later) is pretty simple, IMO:
Illinois: 12 TOs, 11 ORs -> -1 useful possession
Baylor: 7 TOs, 16 ORs -> +9 useful possessions
In net, that means Baylor put up 10 more shots than us -- tough to win in that scenario (we used that formula to our advantage a lot last year).
Also interesting: KenPom once showed that the biggest predictor of the ultimate winner in a game tied (or close) at halftime is which team shot worse in the first half. IIRC that held up last night, we were shooting better at halftime.
Illinois: 12 TOs, 11 ORs -> -1 useful possession
Baylor: 7 TOs, 16 ORs -> +9 useful possessions
In net, that means Baylor put up 10 more shots than us -- tough to win in that scenario (we used that formula to our advantage a lot last year).
Also interesting: KenPom once showed that the biggest predictor of the ultimate winner in a game tied (or close) at halftime is which team shot worse in the first half. IIRC that held up last night, we were shooting better at halftime.
Classy post. Like your team and hope it helps our team in long run.
“Young team”?
We need to put Grandison more in position to succeed. However, Flagler looks really good too.
Deleted member 380722
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Maybe Flagler’s system at his old school was similar to the one at Baylor? Underwood’s system is pretty complex, especially for wings.
TheFameProtector
- Champaign
Some thoughts a day after:
- This was a good slap in the face, without being embarrassing (although if Giorgi hadn't shown up in the first it would have been). We're still young and jelling. No doubt we'll get there and that this experience will help.
- Ayo's pregame comments made me wince a bit -- it seems (from the outside) like this team has heard months of "you're awesome" and let it get to them a little bit, and a couple blowouts to start the season didn't help. And of course his performance did not match his words (part of me wonders if those comments provided additional fuel for Baylor's guards). Confidence is good but I hope this is a learning experience to not puff out our chests too much before we've really proved that we are a top 10 team. As it stands at this moment, objectively, we're a good team on paper only -- we need to go prove it on the court and let our swagger come from dominating opponents, not because our preseason ranking was high.
- That said, the first half was encouraging. We didn't play particularly well, mainly because Baylor's defense is excellent, but we were still essentially even at the break. Far better than how our game against our first real opponent (Miami) went last year. It's going to be hard to win games against good opponents when both Ayo and Kofi have rough games, but Giorgi's performance was a reminder that we have a lot of weapons that can step up on any night.
- Also on the plus side, it looks like we have two long-term studs in Coleman and Curbelo (and of course Miller is a stud, but probably in for a shorter stay). I expected Curbelo to play well this year with the occasional growing pains, but I actually expect he may be more important to us as the season wears on than I had anticipated. His ball handling and penetration in the lane opens up a lot and he can actually deliver the dimes once he's in there. And Coleman...LOVE his energy. He seems to have put on enough weight since arriving to be able to handle more minutes than I expected. His development will be huge for us, given that Grandison hasn't popped yet, BBV is perpetually injured, and how undersized we look against lengthier teams with Damonte at the 4.
- Speaking of Damonte, he was a tad disappointing. He didn't seem as locked in and his lack of energy -- a rarity -- really stood out next to Baylor's intensity. Trent is the vocal one but we need Damonte to be more of a tone setter on that end. We're missing that Alan Griffin, sometimes over-the-top combativeness and need somebody to fill that role (without, ya know, stepping on other players and all that) -- someone to provide the edge that gets in the other team's head. The noise coming from Baylor's bench provided a massive boost during their run -- without fans in arenas, our team has to become more vocal. Luckily we have a coach who will whip that out of them. And, FWIW, I kinda think Coleman might develop into that guy.
- Overall, a great learning experience for this team. As much as we were all hoping for a start-to-finish dominate season a la 04-05, I think this outcome may be better for our season-long performance. We still have a lot to learn and still have a lot of youth on this team. Now we've added kindling to the fire that will hopefully raise our intensity moving forward. We'll get a good chance to see how our team rebounds next week, and Ayo will get a chance to make scouts forget his performance yesterday if he can matchup well with Jalen Johnson.
- This was a good slap in the face, without being embarrassing (although if Giorgi hadn't shown up in the first it would have been). We're still young and jelling. No doubt we'll get there and that this experience will help.
- Ayo's pregame comments made me wince a bit -- it seems (from the outside) like this team has heard months of "you're awesome" and let it get to them a little bit, and a couple blowouts to start the season didn't help. And of course his performance did not match his words (part of me wonders if those comments provided additional fuel for Baylor's guards). Confidence is good but I hope this is a learning experience to not puff out our chests too much before we've really proved that we are a top 10 team. As it stands at this moment, objectively, we're a good team on paper only -- we need to go prove it on the court and let our swagger come from dominating opponents, not because our preseason ranking was high.
- That said, the first half was encouraging. We didn't play particularly well, mainly because Baylor's defense is excellent, but we were still essentially even at the break. Far better than how our game against our first real opponent (Miami) went last year. It's going to be hard to win games against good opponents when both Ayo and Kofi have rough games, but Giorgi's performance was a reminder that we have a lot of weapons that can step up on any night.
- Also on the plus side, it looks like we have two long-term studs in Coleman and Curbelo (and of course Miller is a stud, but probably in for a shorter stay). I expected Curbelo to play well this year with the occasional growing pains, but I actually expect he may be more important to us as the season wears on than I had anticipated. His ball handling and penetration in the lane opens up a lot and he can actually deliver the dimes once he's in there. And Coleman...LOVE his energy. He seems to have put on enough weight since arriving to be able to handle more minutes than I expected. His development will be huge for us, given that Grandison hasn't popped yet, BBV is perpetually injured, and how undersized we look against lengthier teams with Damonte at the 4.
- Speaking of Damonte, he was a tad disappointing. He didn't seem as locked in and his lack of energy -- a rarity -- really stood out next to Baylor's intensity. Trent is the vocal one but we need Damonte to be more of a tone setter on that end. We're missing that Alan Griffin, sometimes over-the-top combativeness and need somebody to fill that role (without, ya know, stepping on other players and all that) -- someone to provide the edge that gets in the other team's head. The noise coming from Baylor's bench provided a massive boost during their run -- without fans in arenas, our team has to become more vocal. Luckily we have a coach who will whip that out of them. And, FWIW, I kinda think Coleman might develop into that guy.
- Overall, a great learning experience for this team. As much as we were all hoping for a start-to-finish dominate season a la 04-05, I think this outcome may be better for our season-long performance. We still have a lot to learn and still have a lot of youth on this team. Now we've added kindling to the fire that will hopefully raise our intensity moving forward. We'll get a good chance to see how our team rebounds next week, and Ayo will get a chance to make scouts forget his performance yesterday if he can matchup well with Jalen Johnson.
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danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Here's that KenPom article if anyone's interested. FWIW I mis-remembered a bit. It's 3-point shooting percentage in particular that's correlated with outcomes -- in a tie game at halftime, the team shooting worse from 3-point land has, on average, a 55% chance of winning.
Thanks for joining us on our site and being so gracious. You guys a have a legit #1 contender. Good luck against Gonzaga, I hope you beat them.
I think there's a difference between giving up, and getting frustrated. And I put this one in the latter camp. We weren't ready for a defense that strong, and that sustained, which Baylor did, and indeed were able to dial it up through critical stretches in the second half, effectively putting us away. Our guys weren't totally lost, but Baylor knew what to do to figure us out, and we really struggled to deal with that much frustrating defense. No one on our team was able to step up, with the possible exception of Giorgi, who really saved us when Kofi was sloppy with fouling. But Giorgi wasn't breaking them down, he was just executing at a really high level, and IMO getting some good breaks with his shots. Kofi was clearly frustrated, and made some bad decisions. That game would have been a lot uglier without Giorgi.
Ayo, Miller, and to a lesser extent Trent, all struggled to get decent looks, and appeared frustrated IMO. Ayo must be kicking himself --he managed to get to the rim, but was a little off balance when he got there and missed shots. He's got to play big in these big games if he wants to move up the draft board. Same for Kofi. They're both talented, but need to find another level if they want to reach their goals. Miller as well, although he's just starting out.
My stat of the game is 2nd half rebounding. To me, it showed how Baylor had another gear, and that took the air out for us. They wound up out-rebounding us for the game, a stat we typically crush. They were REALLY active --very impressive to watch.
The good news is that this is an elite defense, as good as any we'll face. Should help these guys understand how much better they need to be to impose their will on the BIG, which will also be a tall order. I don't know if we'll get to a F4 level, but it should be fun to watch this team progress, and see if they figure it out. Lotta talent, but a ways to go.
Cole may’ve beat him to it
Hawkins is as advertised and is going to be an awesome starting stretch 4 next year to put alongside the best backcourt in the country.
Like Mike Tyson famously said, " Everybody has a plan until you get punched in the mouth". I think we got punched in the mouth by a well coached and very experienced, physical team and it eventually took its toll on us. We became confused and disoriented and lost our composure. We will rebound from this and it will make Ayo better and Kofi more determined. I like our Freshmen a lot! And kudos to Giorgi!
illini55
- The Villages, FL
Duke is not a "must win." Why do our fans just make comments like this---if we lost to Duke by 20 and then go on to be competitive in the Big Ten, these games will be a mere distant memory. Losing to ranked teams at this time of year does very little to harm our power ranking, and this "sky is falling" mentality accomplishes nothing. Just stop the hyperbole.
I'm just a die-hard Illinois fan, I believe in the long run this game will help more than hurt us mentally
1. Curbelo, Giorgi, and Hawkins were the only 3 on team ready for the big stage last night.
2. Ayo and Kofi shouldn't be the 2 players that we should have worry about not showing up.
3. The good news is if Ayo and Kofi play like this against Duke we will get another year with them.
1. Curbelo, Giorgi, and Hawkins were the only 3 on team ready for the big stage last night.
2. Ayo and Kofi shouldn't be the 2 players that we should have worry about not showing up.
3. The good news is if Ayo and Kofi play like this against Duke we will get another year with them.
I'm encouraged because every Underwood squad has improved throughout the season (especially last year). The turnover issues & pick/roll defense can be cleaned up. BU has set the bar much higher. We are already top 10 material. We will improve and we will be a force.
Baylor is getting credit for their defense (and rightfully so). But we deserve credit as well. Outside of the pick/roll, our defense looked very good. Boy, we have come a long way there. The kind of D we played last night will keep us in any game. This team has a high floor and a high ceiling.
Baylor is getting credit for their defense (and rightfully so). But we deserve credit as well. Outside of the pick/roll, our defense looked very good. Boy, we have come a long way there. The kind of D we played last night will keep us in any game. This team has a high floor and a high ceiling.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Ok, tried to add a legend and some numbers here.
Really interesting game to break down this way. Shooting differences were basically negligible — and their slight win on points-per-shot (PPS) on twos was worth only 1–2 points over the course of the game (0.03 points per shot X ~45 shots). The main differentiator was that they had 10 or 11 more scoring opportunities than we did.
If you read KenPom, he reports this a little differently as 1.21 points/possession for Baylor versus 1.01 for us. I think that's a useful way to look at things too — we wasted 5 more possessions on TOs than Baylor did, and they enhanced 5 more possessions with ORs than we did, leading them to score an extra 2 points every 10 possessions or so.
But I think it's pretty cool to see that on possessions ending in a shot, this game was basically a tie.
PPS = Points Per Shot
PPF = Points Per Shooting Foul (this is approximate)
Really interesting game to break down this way. Shooting differences were basically negligible — and their slight win on points-per-shot (PPS) on twos was worth only 1–2 points over the course of the game (0.03 points per shot X ~45 shots). The main differentiator was that they had 10 or 11 more scoring opportunities than we did.
If you read KenPom, he reports this a little differently as 1.21 points/possession for Baylor versus 1.01 for us. I think that's a useful way to look at things too — we wasted 5 more possessions on TOs than Baylor did, and they enhanced 5 more possessions with ORs than we did, leading them to score an extra 2 points every 10 possessions or so.
But I think it's pretty cool to see that on possessions ending in a shot, this game was basically a tie.
PPS = Points Per Shot
PPF = Points Per Shooting Foul (this is approximate)
Did you watch the MSU/Duke game at Cameron? It's not nearly as tough without the Cameron Crazies.
While all of this may be true, Grandison had a year practicing it, where he supposedly gave our guys fits at times.
Maybe Grandison and Hutcherson have great chemistry and that is what is missing since Hutch is out. (Grasping here)
A couple of things I have noticed over our last two games. Demote and Frazier get caught in no man's land when they try to drive. They don't finish at the rim and tend to make prayer passes or turnovers. Belo and Ayo are the only two who can penetrate and pass to an open man against good defense. Hawk is coming along nicely when given the chance. Loved him ripping the ball away from the Baylor guy and his shot block in the low post without putting it in the tenth row of the stands. The last couple minutes BU was subbing Trent and Demonte for defense and Belo and Hawk for O. Interesting
Underwood needs to start Curbelo and Hawkins. Curbelo is are best point guard. Let him grow and mature. He makes everyone better. Put Ayo and Miller on the wings. Hawkins should start at the 4. Let him spread out the defense with his shooting ability which opens up the inside for Kofi. This is our best offense. Underwood needs to run set plays and stop allowing guys to play one on one. Against good teams Ayo needs to pass the ball and stop forcing the issue. Bring Frazier and Williams off the bench. Underwoods lack of adjustments is critical in close games. Baylor is a great team and could win it all but stop weaving around the top of the key with the ball and run some real plays.