The conference takes a share of some of this, so I believe you need to divide by 15.
Where exactly did the BTN/Other rights number come from? It seems high.
Big Ten Media Rights / Conference Realignment
Where exactly did the BTN/Other rights number come from? It seems high.
It could all happen. But what will not happen is some idealized NCAA fever dream in which the marketplace collectively decides "we'd rather watch a curated elitist collection of academic institutions rather than top-level football". That's the childlike part.
The world in which the financial might of the Big Ten and SEC truly dissolves the connective tissue of historical college football is a bland, soulless, ever-more-NFL in which Illinois is a hopeless and irrelevant minnow (barring the institution of really draconian parity measures which would make it more soulless still and almost certainly impoverish the game in the long run).
I get why the suits in the office buildings would root for that. I just don't understand why any fans would, least of all Illinois fans. The Big Ten feels like "us" now, but string out these hypotheticals and that isn't nearly as clear.
The ACC should already be shaking in 50 million plus ways. In Global domination you start with UNC & drive home the point everyone in the ACC is fair game...your move ND. If you pull off ND/UNC, take that momentum and talk to FL/GA instead of GT/FSU (or Clemson). Long shot, maybe, but at a 15 - 20 mil gap and growing the SEC suddenly doesn't look as untouchable + adding ND sends a clear sign who holds the Aces. If those cards fall, then on to Texas and Oklahoma. If Texas still isn't sure, you politely explain to them that you would be willing to settle for there little brother, Texas A&M; at which point, if they should change there mind later it would be largely up to Texas A&M if they would allow them to join later. By that time, Delany and the B1G are printing money.
Maybe I'm overrating the value of this contract, but as WVC pointed out earlier it wasn't long ago that the whole budget was 50 mil range.
DrewD007
- Woodridge, IL
I imagine the B1G will expand right near the end of this new TV contract. It'll also be a few years before the Grant of Rights with the ACC and Big 12 expire, so adding schools from those conferences will be much more feasible.
The big question is how many schools get added. Each school added will need, on average, to bring in $50+ million to make it worthwhile for other schools. Not sure how many schools are capable of doing that.
The big question is how many schools get added. Each school added will need, on average, to bring in $50+ million to make it worthwhile for other schools. Not sure how many schools are capable of doing that.
Conference does take some money, not sure if that cut is already there as part of BTN payout or not...but this whole analysis is a bit of a back of the napkin calculation that came from here with a few problems/guesses along the way, that miss both high & low.
http://awfulannouncing.com/2016/big-...w-tv-deal.html
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Like the way you think. Florida is much more of a BIG school than FSU. The question is, would they leave the SEC? Definitely worth a real try. If they can get Florida, why not try for Georgia?
Global domination. Go right for the jugular. UNC. But would they really entertain leaving the ACC and all their rivalries, without the ACC being destabilized? I think they need the cover.
ND, I don't see it. Until they no longer have a path to the playoffs, they'll remain independent.
The UT play might actually work. OU would join in an instant.
Fun times ahead.
Agree with both points. It will be hard to justify moving before the GORs are up. As the money goes up, the bar will continue to get higher.
I also think it will be interesting as cables are cut how this impacts who the B1G chases. As revenue moves from standard package, to optional package you have to pay for it would seem to favor the schools with bigger fan support (Clemson, Nebraska) over schools with large TV markets (Rutgers/GT).
Question: What schools will leave the ACC?
Answer: Whichever one Delany wants.
UNC, it is obviously a guess, but if your conference is going down you have to jump ship. As a business, can you in good faith give up 25 mil, when it is on the order of 25% of your budget.
Agree ND will only go kicking and screaming...but who will they play? If the B1G is about to poach the top 4 teams in the ACC that very well may be there practical path to a playoff, plus at at some point you can't afford to stay independent and maintain a quality schedule. I don't think ND income is published, but there NBC deal can't look nearly as sweet. This is a lot of money, maybe they negotiate some independent deal with the Big 12, but ND is standing on the ACC, which isn't solid ground right now.
No we wouldn't for a number of reasons, but at what price would we leave & where does the $5 million come from?
In 6 years, give Delany UNC/ND/Fl/GA how much do you think he could grow the revenue gap with SEC if that was part of the negotiation equation?
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I'm just ballparking what the difference might be between the Big Ten and SEC distributions. Call it $10 million even. Think about what the fan reaction would be if Illinois proposed leaving the Big Ten and joining the SEC over nothing but a sack of cash. Then add in the effect of SEC exceptionalism as we all know it.
The fact that anyone would even theorize the possibility of Florida or Georgia joining the Big Ten, well, I go back to my children playing with action figures analogy. What an active imagination you have, time to brush your teeth and go to bed.
DrewD007
- Woodridge, IL
When the amount of money paid per school doesn't go up anymore.
What we are seeing is a consolidation of wealth among the schools who are generating most of the revenue.
Since the Big Ten is made up of mostly huge flagship universities with enormous research dollars in populous states and giant media markets, they figure to be one of the big winners.
In the future, we may see one more "Power Conference" eliminated and some of the schools in that conference, such as an Iowa State or a Wake Forest, being left on the outside.
It's hard to say at this point if it will come to that, but it appears some further consolidation is likely in about ten years when the current Grant of Rights for the ACC and the Big 12 end.
Once you get to 16 or larger, it's really just 2 smaller conferences joined together for financial benefit.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Precisely. At 20, the west division is the original Big Ten minus IU (probably), plus Nebraska. What's wrong with that? Plus, we're part of the biggest college sports media juggernaut. Don't see any downside to that.
I think Delany is slowly going to align every team in the nation into the B1G. Then, we will divide up all the teams into "divisions" all named what their original conference was. For instance, there would be a B1G-SEC and a B1G-Big 12 and so on and so forth.
This would allow B1G officials to be the head of all schools and thus make the NCAA obsolete. In the end, Delany will become the president of the new "NCAA" (aka B1G) and things will be done HIS way.
I haven't read all the posts in this thread so if someone already made this assumption...nicely done.
This would allow B1G officials to be the head of all schools and thus make the NCAA obsolete. In the end, Delany will become the president of the new "NCAA" (aka B1G) and things will be done HIS way.
I haven't read all the posts in this thread so if someone already made this assumption...nicely done.
Anyone leaving the SEC is a bit of a longshot... but to me it looks like a 15 - 20 million gap with the new contract. If B1G ends up with ND/UNC &/or was making a play on Texas/Oklahoma then that amount grows to a scary big number. Your initial 5 million should already be scary big considering how big a deal we thought springing 4 million for Lovie's staff was. They would have to look at it, the presidents all seem to love the research pitch & prestige side. Fans maybe not so much, but they have a non voting share in this. Pump more money into the Athletic department & tell them #WeWillWin and they can be convinced.
Again not saying they would jump, I think it is still a long shot. But everyone has their price & the cost difference between the SEC & B1G just jumped significantly, if Texas or ND were added to the picture it would take another huge jump & the decision makers wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't take a look at the opportunity.
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As far as the Big 10 is concerned, there really is a finite number of schools that make sense. A big part of the Big 10's success (and the SEC and Pac 12, too) has been that it's comprised of schools that all have the same basic institutional goals. All the boats are sailing the same direction.
The schools that might fit that description are... Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Notre Dame... A&M and Vandy if the SEC somehow becomes vulnerable... I guess Florida, too, if we're going to drift into pure fantasy. And that's about it.
I figure if the Big 10 had any interest at all in Mizzou, Kansas, Iowa St. or Pitt, they'd already be in the Big 10.
If the B1G could have pulled in ND they might have been interested in Mizzou at that time. Pitt, Iowa St and KU don't add any FB TV sets you don't already have, so no interest there.
Texas or Okla or both would be my choice. If you get one and not the other then take OKST along. The one left out will come soon after.
I'm not a Uva fan unless they drag ND with them.
I don't another Orange & Blue team in the B1G...but if we're going to 16 I wouldn't mind UVA & ND. Dream scenario would be Missouri and ND
Serious Late
- Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
I may have missed something, but reading through a CBSSports article, it appears a recent deal made by the ACC extends the Grant of Rights for the conference to 2036:
I imagine that has a pretty big impact on the B1G's ability to go after any ACC schools or Notre Dame.
I imagine that has a pretty big impact on the B1G's ability to go after any ACC schools or Notre Dame.
Yup.
If further tectonic shifting is going to happen at the end of the current spate of TV deals, it's gonna be a breakup of the Big XII, not the ACC.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
More like a huge impact.
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