Big Ten Tournament Discussion

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#26      
Goillinikobd
turnaround3 said:
Second weekend and it's not even close for me.

There's already a budding narrative on BU's Illini teams being unable to get out of the first weekend. A third consecutive year of it enters that narrative into full bloom, so to speak. Don't want to hear it, don't want to argue with people about it, don't want it to be a thing. Want it put to bed now, this year.

Another BTT banner does little if anything for me, personally.
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After two seasons with an All American who helped get us either a BTT season banner or a BTT tourney banner, the expectations are a little higher this year, or at least they were after the two big wins in Vegas and MSG.
 
#27      
Goillinikobd
Calvin said:
When I check off the things that have gone wrong this season, at least relative to expectations, it's a pretty long list. And I think a number of these, the optimism was warranted. Off the top of my head (I'm sure there's more):

On the down side
Skyy Clark as a borderline 5 star PG. A potential one and done or two and done type of player is not replaceable, and leaving the team is about as a bad an outcome as could happen.
RJ combination of injury and/or soph slump. He was so incredibly efficient last year and has cratered more than any player I can recall. That's a tribute to how good he was last year in limited minutes. I think everyone was looking at a break-out player in the making. Hopefully he's 100% down the road.
Goode with a major injury, in an area where the team has the greatest need. Lost some length and desperately needed 3 point shooting.
Defense, specifically 3 point defense. Not sure why this has been a persistent problem, but I assume the switching strategy leads to breakdowns. Overall defensive metrics are solid, but defending the 3 point line has been bad, and teams have made them pay. It's understandable when TJD or some other future NBA guy gets his 20+ points, but the close-outs for open 3s has been hard to watch...

On the plus side
Coleman exceeded my expectations, but I was not expecting a huge leap. The 3 pt shooting is underwhelming, obviously. I think some are disappointed, but he's a definite plus to expectations IMHO. Love his passing, defensive length, and overall game. Has had some great cuts to the basket for easy points and potential fouling opportunities.
Dain has blown away my expectations. Stays out of foul trouble while contributing a ton in every aspect. Hard to imagine where the team would be without him.
Epps/Sincere both exceeding expectations. They're freshman, and I expect some mistakes and inconsistencies, but have earned their spots in the rotation. Epps is another player that has me wondering where the team would be without him. He has the presence to lead a team late game, and is one of the better FT shooters on a team that's below avg.
Mayer has single handedly won or kept the team in several games
TSJ is just plain fun to watch. NBA athleticism all day. Closest thing we have to an Ayo. You need a guy who's fearless in attacking and can poke guys in foul trouble. Epps has surprised me a bit--but TSJ is in your face and able to do it at a high level.

I had always assumed that even if the team struggles during the season, they'd be dangerous come March. But the flaws haven't improved much, and the ceiling, IMHO is lower than was hyped. All that said, I wouldn't be too surprised if they get on a run. The ceiling might not be as high as I originally thought, but they still have stretches where they can play with almost anyone, and as the season ticks away, I could see some things getting cleaned up.
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I am with you on all the plus sides EXCEPT I really think Coleman has a lot more in the tank than we have seen. To me he is the key to our BTT Tourney and NCAA fortunes.
 
#29      
RockfordIllini
Going to be a wild last couple of weeks.

Northwestern currently with 5 losses, but if we can take care of business at home next they have to go to Maryland who is undefeated at home, then finish home against PSU (who is playing for their tourney lives the rest of the way) and at Rutgers. Highly likely Northwestern finishes with 7 losses or more.

Indiana with 6 losses but has looked vulnerable lately (should have lost @mich and barely beat us) and is at sparty tonight then at Purdue on Saturday. Highly likely they have 7 or more losses by end of this weekend.

Both Iowa and Maryland are kinda trash on the road and have 2 tough road games left. Highly likely they finish with 8 to 9 losses.

If we take care of business and finish 12-8 I think there’s a good chance to leapfrog enough teams we get a double bye even with the tie breakers against us. And I wouldn’t rule out a win at Purdue either. Buckle up!
 
#30      
grue2
RockfordIllini said:
If we take care of business and finish 12-8 I think there’s a good chance to leapfrog enough teams we get a double bye even with the tie breakers against us. And I wouldn’t rule out a win at Purdue either. Buckle up!
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I could not find any sequence, where IL goes 12-8 and gets a double bye. I was using https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb. It looks like 4-7 teams will end 12-8**; someone has to win each game. If only 5 teams end 12-8, it is because at least one went 13-7. IL is almost always dead last on tie breakers. No combination of wins to get 12-8 changes that - I tried all of the combinations for IL wins.

My experiments (non-exact) show the IL seeding odds at 12-8 as roughly;
1-4: 0%
5: < 5%
6: 30%
7: 50%
8: 20%
9: ~0%
Someone used to have an web page that generated a graph like this for the entire league. Anyone have the link?

On the other hand, if IL wins out, they are very likely the 2 seed (and failing that the 3). The win over Purdue flips around the tie breaker situation. IL wins (almost) all the ties.

** I did assume MN loses out, and OSU wins at most 2 more (vs PSU, @IL, vs MD, @MSU).
 
#31      
21ChampaignSt
grue2 said:
I could not find any sequence, where IL goes 12-8 and gets a double bye. I was using https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb. It looks like 4-7 teams will end 12-8**; someone has to win each game. If only 5 teams end 12-8, it is because at least one went 13-7. IL is almost always dead last on tie breakers. No combination of wins to get 12-8 changes that - I tried all of the combinations for IL wins.

My experiments (non-exact) show the IL seeding odds at 12-8 as roughly;
1-4: 0%
5: < 5%
6: 30%
7: 50%
8: 20%
9: ~0%
Someone used to have an web page that generated a graph like this for the entire league. Anyone have the link?

On the other hand, if IL wins out, they are very likely the 2 seed (and failing that the 3). The win over Purdue flips around the tie breaker situation. IL wins (almost) all the ties.

** I did assume MN loses out, and OSU wins at most 2 more (vs PSU, @IL, vs MD, @MSU).
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There is a way for it to happen. But we would need some things to break our way, like Maryland going 2-2 against a soft schedule and Iowa finishing 1-3.
Screenshot_20230222_043549_Chrome.jpg
 
#32      
Illinicpa14
grue2 said:
I could not find any sequence, where IL goes 12-8 and gets a double bye. I was using https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb. It looks like 4-7 teams will end 12-8**; someone has to win each game. If only 5 teams end 12-8, it is because at least one went 13-7. IL is almost always dead last on tie breakers. No combination of wins to get 12-8 changes that - I tried all of the combinations for IL wins.

My experiments (non-exact) show the IL seeding odds at 12-8 as roughly;
1-4: 0%
5: < 5%
6: 30%
7: 50%
8: 20%
9: ~0%
Someone used to have an web page that generated a graph like this for the entire league. Anyone have the link?

On the other hand, if IL wins out, they are very likely the 2 seed (and failing that the 3). The win over Purdue flips around the tie breaker situation. IL wins (almost) all the ties.

** I did assume MN loses out, and OSU wins at most 2 more (vs PSU, @IL, vs MD, @MSU).
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While you’re probably right, there will be some big upsets somewhere or teams going 4-0 vs 0-4. Last year think of what we needed to win the big ten. Regardless, 3-1 to close out the year should keep us off the 8-9 line ncaa in any scenario and giving us a much better shot at a S16
 
#33      
2qtslow
I love playing with bracket generators. On my first attempt, I managed to make a 12-8 Illinois finish all alone in second place. All I did was to assume that every team that currently has more than eight losses wins every remaining game with the exceptions of games against us, Purdue, or each other. Here is what I got:

1. Purdue (16 - 4)
2. Illinois (12 - 8)
3. Rutgers (11 - 9) Defeated Maryland, Michigan, Indiana, and N'western based on round-robin record (5-1).
4. Maryland (11 - 9) Defeated Michigan, Indiana, and N'western and lost to Rutgers based on round-robin record (3-2).
5. Michigan (11 - 9) Defeated Indiana and N'western and lost to Rutgers and Maryland based on round-robin record (4-3).
6. N'western (11 - 9) With Indiana, lost to Rutgers, Maryland, and Michigan based on round-robin record (2-5). Defeated Indiana based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Purdue] (1-0).
7. Indiana (11 - 9) With N'western, lost to Rutgers, Maryland, and Michigan based on round-robin record (2-5). Lost to N'western based on winning percentage against #1 teams [Purdue] (1-1).
8. Mich St (10 - 10) Defeated Nebraska and Penn St based on round-robin record (2-1).
9. Nebraska (10 - 10) Defeated Penn St and lost to Mich St based on round-robin record (2-2).
10. Penn St (10 - 10) Lost to Mich St and Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-2).
11. Wisconsin (9 - 11) Defeated Iowa based on head-to-head record (2-0).
12. Iowa (9 - 11) Lost to Wisconsin based on head-to-head record (0-2).
13. Ohio St (6 - 14)
14. Minnesota (3 - 17)

Of course, the downside of this little thought experiment is that our double bye means our first opponent is either Indiana or Penn State. Curiously, if we assume the MSU-Minnesota game is not played, then MSU moves to #8 at 10-9, and PSU moves up to #9 by virtue of going 2-0 against us while Nebraska was 0-2 against us. Our first game would then be against the Indiana-Nebraska winner. All we need is for the bottom feeders to stop losing!
 
#34      
STL Illini
theNewGuy said:
If you had to choose one, would you rather win the B1G Tournament OR make the sweet 16.

I think I would rather hang another Banner.
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Gonna have to say I would take the B1G banner, and after the championship game for the B1G, I would decide I prefer the S16 and would change my vote. Your rule for choosing one was really just a guideline, which allows for this way of thinking.
 
#35      
Bigtex
This late season push by Nebraska - similar to last year when they won at Penn St, at #23 Ohio St and at #10 Wisc in their last 3 games. This year winning vs Wisconsin, at Rutgers, and vs Maryland. With the following games remaining vs Minnesota, vs Michigan St and at Iowa.
 
#37      
RockfordIllini
21ChampaignSt said:
There is a way for it to happen. But we would need some things to break our way, like Maryland going 2-2 against a soft schedule and Iowa finishing 1-3.
View attachment 23582
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Maryland is trash on the road. Decent odds they finish 2-2.

And if Iowa finishes 2-2, wouldn’t that put them at 11-9, one game behind us if we finish 12-8?

NW playing great but finishes with 3 of 4 on the road including at Maryland (undefeated at home in conference) and at Rutgers (always a tough venue). Plus their one home game is against PSU who is fighting for their tourney lives and Picket is going nuclear.

If NW and us both finish 12-8 and if (this is a big if) we split, who would hold the tiebreaker between us and NW?
 
#38      
21ChampaignSt
RockfordIllini said:
Maryland is trash on the road. Decent odds they finish 2-2.

And if Iowa finishes 2-2, wouldn’t that put them at 11-9, one game behind us if we finish 12-8?

NW playing great but finishes with 3 of 4 on the road including at Maryland (undefeated at home in conference) and at Rutgers (always a tough venue). Plus their one home game is against PSU who is fighting for their tourney lives and Picket is going nuclear.

If NW and us both finish 12-8 and if (this is a big if) we split, who would hold the tiebreaker between us and NW?
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All good points. I'm sure there are several scenarios that we could finish top 4 with 8 losses. I think the main takeaway for me though, is that it's very much out of our control.

*But to contradict what I said above, if we win out, everything but #1 is still up for grabs. So in a sense, we do still control our own destiny.
 
#39      
Fighter of the Nightman
In an insane year like this in the Big Ten, it's crazy that there are several paths where we might be better off for some additional wins by getting a LOWER seed simply because of matchups ... as noted above, for whatever reason Penn State and Indiana seem to have our number this year, whereas I'd enthusiastically welcome another shot at Iowa. I just played around with it, going with the "favorite" (i.e., pre-selected winner on the website) in every game except for the following:

1) Wisconsin beats Iowa at home tonight
2) Penn State wins at Ohio State tomorrow
3) Nebraska beats Michigan State at home next Tuesday
4) Penn State beats Maryland at home the last Sunday of league play
(FTR, this assumes the Illini win every game left except for at Purdue)

BTT Seeds
1. Purdue (16-4)
2. Rutgers (13-7)
3. Maryland (12-8)
4. Northwestern (12-8)
5. Indiana (12-8)
6. Illinois (12-8)
7. Iowa (11-9)
8. Michigan State (11-9)
9. Michigan (10-10)
10. Nebraska (9-11)
11. Wisconsin (9-11)
12. Penn State (9-11)
13. Ohio State (3-17)
14. Minnesota (1-19)

As you can see, we would get the #6 seed. If you keep everything else the same except we upset Purdue at Mackey, we jump up to the #2 seed.

#6 Seed Path:
vs. (11) Wisconsin or (14) Minnesota at 8:00 pm on Thursday
vs. (3) Maryland at 8:00 pm on Friday if we win
vs. (2) Rutgers, (7) Iowa or (10 Nebraska at 2:30 pm on Saturday if we win

Honestly, I would take that ... gives us a first game we should win, a chance to get the Maryland monkey off of our back once and for all in Chicago and a Rutgers team I feel we match up well with.

#2 Seed Path:
vs. (7) Iowa or (10) Nebraska at 5:30 pm on Friday
vs. (3) Rutgers, (6) Indiana, (11) Wisconsin or (14) Minnesota at 2:30 pm on Saturday if we win

The more I think about it, either one is fine ... this is such an odd year and you kind of never know what you'll get with our squad. Hell, I guess I'd rather we be the (2), (3) or (6) just so I can get to the games on time!
 
#40      
AyoDos11
RockfordIllini said:
If NW and us both finish 12-8 and if (this is a big if) we split, who would hold the tiebreaker between us and NW?
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The next tiebreaker would be record against the number 1 team (Purdue). NW beat Purdue in their one game against them, so if we lose to Purdue, then NW would hold the tiebreaker against us.

If we also beat Purdue then it goes to record against the number 2 team and so on.
 
#41      
Poe's Law
Anybody have a bracket with current tie breakers? I see 6 teams lumped in at 9-7, but Iowa is 5-0 against that group so I’d think they would be the 4 seed. ESPN shows us 4th in the standings but think they are using overall record as tie breaker (same as Google and Big Ten website)
 
#42      
AyoDos11
Poe's Law said:
Anybody have a bracket with current tie breakers? I see 6 teams lumped in at 9-7, but Iowa is 5-0 against that group so I’d think they would be the 4 seed. ESPN shows us 4th in the standings but think they are using overall record as tie breaker (same as Google and Big Ten website)
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Screenshot_20230222_120725.jpg
 
#45      
RabidDawgClassic
There’s one wildcard no one seems to be addressing. We’re all assuming a loss at Purdue, which seems likely. But what if Purdue as the B1G championship locked up before they play us? What’s the likelihood that Painter rests his mains, especially Edey, for an extended period or even the entire game?

Even if Painter doesn’t sit the starters, there’s certain to be a bit of a letdown by the Purdue players if they’ve locked it up. It’s possible we could be playing Purdue at the perfect time.
 
#46      
socalini
RabidDawgClassic said:
There’s one wildcard no one seems to be addressing. We’re all assuming a loss at Purdue, which seems likely. But what if Purdue as the B1G championship locked up before they play us? What’s the likelihood that Painter rests his mains, especially Edey, for an extended period or even the entire game?

Even if Painter doesn’t sit the starters, there’s certain to be a bit of a letdown by the Purdue players if they’ve locked it up. It’s possible we could be playing Purdue at the perfect time.
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If all results play out as projected, EXCEPT that we beat Purdue, we finish in 2nd place. Not gonna hold my breath on that though.
 
#47      
RockfordIllini
RabidDawgClassic said:
There’s one wildcard no one seems to be addressing. We’re all assuming a loss at Purdue, which seems likely. But what if Purdue as the B1G championship locked up before they play us? What’s the likelihood that Painter rests his mains, especially Edey, for an extended period or even the entire game?

Even if Painter doesn’t sit the starters, there’s certain to be a bit of a letdown by the Purdue players if they’ve locked it up. It’s possible we could be playing Purdue at the perfect time.
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Even without a letdown, I actually think we match up okay with Purdue. We did a good job trapping TJD and forced him into 5 TOs and TJD is a much better passer than Edey. Plus I think Dain matches up better with Edey as Dain is physical but struggles with quicker more athletic bigs who can take him off the dribble ala TJD.

Also, Sencire and Jaden may be able to bother Smith with ball pressure, we may be able to play Loyer off the floor like Sandfort and not sure they have someone to stop Mayer or TSJ.

Will probably need to play one of our best games of the year to win but it’s far from impossible for us to beat them based on how we match up IMO.
 
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#48      
Bigtex
RockfordIllini said:
Even without a letdown, I actually think we match up okay with Purdue. We did a good job trapping TJD and forced him into 5 TOs and TJD is a much better passer than Edey. Plus I think Dain matches up better with Edey as Dain is physical but struggles with quicker more athletic bigs who can take him off the dribble ala TJD.

Also, Sencire and Jaden may be able to bother Smith with ball pressure, we may be able to play Loyer off the floor like Sandfort and not sure they have someone to stop Mayer or TSJ.

Will probably need to play one of our best games of the year to win but it’s far from impossible for us to beat them based on how we match up IMO.
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Morton will lock up whoever he is guarding
 
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