1. No
2. Obviously Michigan (or Ohio State) would be their first choice if they aren't both in the CFP, and a 10-11 win Penn State their second.
And a 10-2 Penn State vs a 10-3 Illinois, we know what that choice will be.
But if we can beat everybody but Michigan it's a possibility. And ironically we'd probably rather lose to Michigan than win if the Rose Bowl is the target. But that's all getting waaaaaaaaaay ahead of ourselves.
We currently sit in Detroit/Phoenix, and every win from here moves us up one rung on the ladder, that's probably a decent rough heuristic.