Bowl Projections

Status
Not open for further replies.
#51      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
ChiefGritty said:
We played in consecutive Redbox Bowls, them in 2018, us in 2019. These bowl reps will know not just how many tickets were sold but how many flights, hotel nights, and all the rest were accounted for by the two fanbases. It's not hypothetical guesswork.
Click to expand...
I know it's not entirely guesswork. But there's all publicity that comes into it. How many people are going to tune in. And fan bases are going to travel different (I think, don't know) for teams on the rise vs teams on the downslope.

I just disagree that it's a certainty that we're not worth a "reach" as you put it.

Of course alliances are going to be a big factor. But I think there's a good deal of discretion. Do you think the bowls are going to take a 4 loss Wisconsin or Iowa team over a 3 loss Illinois team?
 
#52      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Do you think the bowls are going to take a 4 loss Wisconsin or Iowa team over a 3 loss Illinois team?
Click to expand...
Probably. Though the league office has a voice in all this and they'll apply some pressure.

Anyway, what I meant by "reach" is that a bowl isn't going to trample over the order to get Illinois. If we go 8-4 and Maryland goes 9-3, but advanced stats say we're the "better team", Maryland is still gonna get the Reliaquest Bowl or whatever.

We'll be fine. It's a year NYD falls on a Sunday anyway so who cares, the games aren't getting played on the normal days.
 
#53      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Last year 7-5 Penn State got the Outback Bowl over 8-4 Wisconsin and Purdue, who got the Las Vegas and Music City, respectively, over 8-4 Minnesota who had beaten both of them.

It's just the way this stuff works.
 
#55      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
ChiefGritty said:
Last year 7-5 Penn State got the Outback Bowl over 8-4 Wisconsin and Purdue, who got the Las Vegas and Music City, respectively, over 8-4 Minnesota who had beaten both of them.

It's just the way this stuff works.
Click to expand...
Yes. As I already noted I understand "the way stuff works". I just don't agree with your assessment of where illinois fits on the spectrum this year.

I see the four elite names as having a tremendous edge for the name and fan enthusiasm. I think Wisconsin because of fan enthusiasm is likely getting an edge over us.

After that I think this illinois team with Chase Brown doesn't take a back seat for bowl appeal to anyone else in the league.
 
#57      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Updated for this Saturday's results. OK, and it has an optimistic slant:


TeamCurrent RecordProjected RecordBowl
Michigan7-013-0CFP-Peach
Ohio State6-011-1CFP-Fiesta
ILLINOIS6-110-3Rose/Citrus
Penn State5-110-2Citrus/Rose
Purdue5-28-4ReliaQuest
Minnesota4-27-5Duke's Mayo
Maryland5-26-6Music City
Iowa3-36-6Pinstripe
Wisconsin3-46-6Guaranteed Rate
Nebraska3-45-7Quick Lane ?
Michigan St3-45-7
Rutgers3-34-8
Indiana3-44-8
Northwestern1-51-11
* assumes Michigan runs the table
* assumes Illini lose to Wolverines in Big10 title game
 
#59      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
BretMyBeachHouse said:
After that I think this illinois team with Chase Brown doesn't take a back seat for bowl appeal to anyone else in the league.
Click to expand...
We were much closer in attendance to Indiana than Purdue this week. We'll get the TV ratings in a couple days, lets see what those say.

These are not airy-fairy romantic calculations, there are cold hard numbers here. And if Illinois has started down a path to college football superpower status, appeal to bowls is the absolute last thing that will change, it's the single stickiest thing in the sport that has the least to do with how good your team is.
 
#60      

gibb52

G
gibb52
We are new on the scene of upper tier bowl teams (assuming we add 2-3 more wins) and would be something of an unknown in terms of fan draw. I would think that tons of Illini fans would jump at the chance to see the Illini in a New Years week game as opposed to a more established team's fans that went last year and the year before that, etc. My son and I are already discussing bowl attendance and I'm sure we aren't alone. But I could see a bowl committee taking 8-4 PSU or Wisky over us even if we had a better record just on the basis of a sure thing as opposed to something of an unknown.
 
#61      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
A possible X Factor for us is a bowl realizing how starving this fan base is for a legit bowl experience and will descend on said bowl city like an orange plague!

koolaid-commercial.gif
 
#62      

TheChief4Life

TheChief4Life
TheChief4Life
ChiefGritty said:
it's the single stickiest thing in the sport that has the least to do with how good your team is.
Click to expand...
I miss the BCS era for this reason alone. Bowl selection was based on team success. You were not allowed to pick a team that had 2 or more than another available team. A 7-5 Penn State wouldn't be allowed to be chosen over a 9-3 Illinois for any bowl in which there was a Big Ten tie-in.
 
#63      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
ChiefGritty said:
We were much closer in attendance to Indiana than Purdue this week. We'll get the TV ratings in a couple days, lets see what those say.

These are not airy-fairy romantic calculations, there are cold hard numbers here. And if Illinois has started down a path to college football superpower status, appeal to bowls is the absolute last thing that will change, it's the single stickiest thing in the sport that has the least to do with how good your team is.
Click to expand...
No one has suggested that we're on any "superpower" path. The comparison has been to teams such as Maryland and Purdue. Do you think they are "superpowers"?

I believe an Illinois team with a higher ranking and fewer losses will be more enticing to bowls than Purdue/Maryland/Minnesota with more losses and a lower ranking.

And no one, except you, has suggested anything about "airy-fairy" stuff.
 
#65      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
BretMyBeachHouse said:
I believe an Illinois team with a higher ranking and fewer losses will be more enticing to bowls than Purdue/Maryland/Minnesota with more losses and a lower ranking.
Click to expand...
And where we ultimately agree: if that's the choice, especially on the line between the "NYD" vs non-NYD bowls, the league office will see to it that we get the bid. The rules don't matter as much as keeping everybody happy.

Because 6-6 Maryland also got the technically "higher" placement of the Pinstripe Bowl over 8-4 Minnesota, but that's just because this isn't some blind auction, everybody is able to talk to each other and Maryland in NYC and Minny in Phoenix is a happier scenario for everybody involved including Minny.
 
#66      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
ChiefGritty said:
And where we ultimately agree: if that's the choice, especially on the line between the "NYD" vs non-NYD bowls, the league office will see to it that we get the bid. The rules don't matter as much as keeping everybody happy.

Because 6-6 Maryland also got the technically "higher" placement of the Pinstripe Bowl over 8-4 Minnesota, but that's just because this isn't some blind auction, everybody is able to talk to each other and Maryland in NYC and Minny in Phoenix is a happier scenario for everybody involved including Minny.
Click to expand...
yup

lots of this stuff is discussed and negotiated in zoom calls from the league office to the AD's around the league.

Minny would way rather be in Az and Maryland in NY , even if the pecking order is upside down
 
#67      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
ChiefGritty said:
And where we ultimately agree: if that's the choice, especially on the line between the "NYD" vs non-NYD bowls, the league office will see to it that we get the bid. The rules don't matter as much as keeping everybody happy.
Click to expand...
Well, you've got me thoroughly confused about your opinion. Here's what you said earlier in the thread.

"If we go 8-4 and Maryland goes 9-3, but advanced stats say we're the "better team", Maryland is still gonna get the Reliaquest Bowl or whatever."

And of course you had to add in all the patronizing "airy fairy" "romantic" stuff as if you understand this better than the rest of us. Now, a dozen posts later you're agreeing with my position.

With our rising program, large alumni/fan base, Chicago media market, and Chase Brown, we're a more enticing bowl pick than Maryland and we'd get picked against them with equal records and certainy if we are a win ahead of them.
 
#68      

PassingBy

P
PassingBy
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Do you think the bowls are going to take a 4 loss Wisconsin or Iowa team over a 3 loss Illinois team?
Click to expand...

Academic.

No, not this year. With a D that has made waves, such decisions - to select teams IL has beaten soundly - is not just remote, but impossible.
 
#73      

WillyG42

WillyG42
WillyG42
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Yes. As I already noted I understand "the way stuff works". I just don't agree with your assessment of where illinois fits on the spectrum this year.

I see the four elite names as having a tremendous edge for the name and fan enthusiasm. I think Wisconsin because of fan enthusiasm is likely getting an edge over us.

After that I think this illinois team with Chase Brown doesn't take a back seat for bowl appeal to anyone else in the league.
Click to expand...
So Wisconsin gets a better bowl than us? The Citrus bowl rep was at the Iowa/IL game
 
#74      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
WillyG42 said:
So Wisconsin gets a better bowl than us? The Citrus bowl rep was at the Iowa/IL game
Click to expand...
No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying all things being somewhat equal Wisconsin gets the bid over us as well as the four big names.

I think we're on even footing more or less with the rest of the league.
 
#75      

Mr. Roberts

Mr. Roberts
Mr. Roberts
WillyG42 said:
So Wisconsin gets a better bowl than us? The Citrus bowl rep was at the Iowa/IL game
Click to expand...
Wisconsin is 3-4, so has to win at least three of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, and Maryland to get to 6-6.
Nebraska is 3-4 and needs three of Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa
Iowa is 3-3 and needs three of tOSU, Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska

With all of the games between these teams, probably no more than one goes bowling. Iowa has the easiest road to 6 wins with Nebraska and Northwestern yet to come. I don't see a quality bowl sullying their reputation with a 6-6 team, so we are in a good place here.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.