Get out of here with your reasonable realistic takes.
Bowl Projections
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No, beating an undefeated #4 Michigan and then having OSU beat them and be #2 would make our title win look that much better. If Michigan beats OSU, the conference would look weak and the championship game would feature two teams in the 6-10 range.
The problem with your scenario is that means Ohio State has a claim to get picked ahead of us. Only one BIG team gets in. In my scenario, the BIG conference would unite and fight to get us into the playoff at 12-1 and conference champ. In your scenario, there will still be a sense that OSU should still go for their full body of work and history may create a bias. I think it is best for us to stand alone at the top and to dare the committee to not take us with that resume, especially with a united BIG conference.
We would be ahead of them in the polls and would have beaten them head to head in the last game of the season and we'd be crowned the conference champion. It goes without saying that we'd get the bid over them.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
And beating two different top teams is just inherently more impressive than beating the same one twice.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
but it would be so sweet to beat scUM twice in two weeks , knowing what’s on the line
but I agree, as a resume builder , it’s better to beat each team once
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Illinois were in fact to win the next four games to get to 10-1, there better be an orange out at Ryan Field on 11/26 (even if we are 9-2)! But right now, the focus is on getting to 9-1 to set up GameDay in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State can say we were 12 and 0 until the end. It leaves the door a little too open for my liking. You make a very strong argument, but I just like the idea of forcing the committee to pass on a 12-1 Clear BIG champ.
Beating Michigan twice sets us apart from them and Ohio State by a wide margin. If we win a close one against OSU that can be viewed as some sort of fluke and they can just take OSU anyway because of our IU loss. I don't think that is fair, but I can see it happening.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
You've got to remember that the absolute cardinal imperative of the CFP committee is perpetuating the legitimacy of the CFP structure and process. Forget Illinois and Ohio State, the committee is not going to step on the toes of the Big Ten Championship Game as an entity and TV property like that.
They took OSU in 2014 to avoid the impossible choice between Baylor and TCU.
They tried to delegitimize Cincinnati until the bitter end in the week-to-week polls (as they do with all non-P5 contenders) until it reached an inflection point where leaving them out would undermine the public perception of the process and then it flipped.
They are very conscious of the job they're doing.
I do think Lysol does make a valid point along with your own. Truth is this would be a fairly bizarre occurrence as the precedent we would be looking at is one where 2 teams in a conference finish with the same 1 loss record after the championship game and there are 3 other more deserving teams ahead of them leaving one last playoff spot available. There is one very near instance of this (2008-09) in the CFP or BCS era along with a few similar ones:
2014-15: TCU (11-1) and Baylor (11-1). In this year, neither team was selected to make the playoff and there was no B12 championship game, but TCU's lone loss came @Baylor whereas Baylor lost on the road to a much weaker opponent. TCU also played the much stronger schedule. However in the final CFP rankings, Baylor was the 5th ranked team and TCU the 6th. In this case, Baylor would be our best comparable however it is important to note that Baylor had better brand recognition at this point than TCU.
2011-12: Alabama (11-1) and Oklahoma State (11-1). While these teams are in different conferences, in this year Alabama was selected to the BCS Championship while Oklahoma State was left out. Alabama lost their 1 game vs undefeated LSU and had the much better loss than Oklahoma State and a slightly better SOS, however Oklahoma State won their Conference and at the time was thought by many to be the more deserving selection for this reason. In this case, Oklahoma State would be our best comparable, and it is important to note Alabama had much better brand recognition than Oklahoma State.
2010-11: OSU (11-1) and Wisconsin (11-1). In this year, neither team was selected to make the BCS Championship but OSU's lone loss came @Wisconsin whereas Wisconsin lost on the road to a slightly weaker opponent. OSU played a slightly stronger schedule. However in the final BCS rankings, Wisconsin was the 5th ranked team and OSU the 6th. In this case, Wisconsin would be our best comparable and it is important to note that OSU had better brand recognition at this point than Wisconsin.
2008-09: Oklahoma (12-1) and Texas (11-1). In this year, Oklahoma was selected to make the BCS Championship, but OU's lone loss came vTexas whereas texas lost on the road to a similarly strong opponent. OU played a slightly stronger schedule. However, OU was selected B12 champion through numerous odd tiebreakers and in the final BCS rankings, Oklahoma was the 2nd ranked team and Texas the 3rd. In this case, Texas would be our best comparable and it is important to note that Texas had a much much better loss than us but were also not named B12 Champion.
2000-01: Washington (10-1) and Oregon State (10-1). In this year, neither team was selected to make the BCS Championship, but Oregon State's lone loss came @Washington whereas Washington lost on the road to a similarly strong opponent. Oregon St played a slightly stronger schedule. However, Washington was the 4th ranked team and Oregon State the 6th. In this case, Washington would be our best comparable however it is important to note that Washington had a much much much better loss than us and they had better name recognition than Oregon State at this point.
Ok, so based on the 5 similar historical cases, it would appear that in the 3 of them, the team most resembling Illinois was selected in the playoff whereas in the other 2 the team most resembling OSU was selected, so overall I don't think this is actually all that cut and dry. I agree with you it is more likely Illinois would be given a playoff spot than OSU in a scenario where both teams finish 12-1, but based on the historical data, I would have to agree with Lysol that this isn't necessarily a given
Very well said. I am confident we would make it either way. My fear is that there wouldn't be the public outrage if OSU got picked over us. Cincinnati had to go to the playoff for instance. The media and public would just say Illinois has sucked for so long that we can't trust them over OSU in a playoff, or that we should be content with the Rose Bowl. Public pressure and BIG conference pressure is very important with these selections.
Still hoping we get Michigan twice.
Palm has done it again. What a doofus. He has PSU against Ware in the Orange Bowl, Purdue against Ole Miss in the Citrus, LSU against UNC in thr Reliaquest Bowl and us against UK in the Music City. Just sad
Getting Mich twice would be the icing on the cake.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
fify
I mean, losing to them twice in two weeks , will put a funky stain on this season's accomplishments.
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Latest ESPN.com bowl projections:
-Schlabach: Citrus vs. LSU
-Bonagura: Reliaquest vs. LSU
-Schlabach: Citrus vs. LSU
-Bonagura: Reliaquest vs. LSU
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
After watching part of their game yesterday, I'd prefer not playing LSU. That's a whole lotta offense.
Awesome. We’re a whole lotta defense.
I'm still scarred from 2001. Please no Tiger Baiters.
There should ALWAYS be an Orange Out at Ryan Field when Illinois plays there. Always.
But I’m sure you heard it. We are America’s Team.
In some thread somewhere I said it would be cool to get Miss St to see our defense vs the air raid. Same applies to LSU. Just would be fun to see us shut down potent offenses.
Worst fan base I've ever encountered. That includes IU basketball and Kentucky basketball.
He is definitely falling on that Purdue sword. He refuses to drop them and elevate us.
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