Bracketology (Week of Feb. 22nd)

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#3      
I think 4-1 beating tOSU puts them on a path to get last #1 and that would be a tremendous achievement given tbe schedule Michigan gave the Illini :)
 
#4      
South Carolina
Hoping to see a lot of Luther Head's picture later today when the AP Poll is announced. Expecting the #4 to be rather prominent for Illini fans! (Worst case = one more week of Deron.)
 
#5      

Deleted member 186590

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I don’t see how we’re not the last 1 seed now- #4 net vs #7 - same number of losses as OSU tougher non-conf schedule and two games up on them in The Big Ten

It’s irrelevant as we still have to play them again- but I don’t see how any Braketologist could have them ahead of us right now
 
#6      
I don’t see how we’re not the last 1 seed now- #4 net vs #7 - same number of losses as OSU tougher non-conf schedule and two games up on them in The Big Ten

It’s irrelevant as we still have to play them again- but I don’t see how any Braketologist could have them ahead of us right now
Other than they beat us at our place early...I agree
 
#7      
I don't see us moving up in the polls today. The #4 team lost to the #3 team. Think we'll still be #5.
 
#8      
I don't see us moving up in the polls today. The #4 team lost to the #3 team. Think we'll still be #5.
disagree . pretty sure our convincing win at The Barn meant something with most voters

I believe we leagfrog over O$U today
 
#9      
I think 4-1 beating tOSU puts them on a path to get last #1 and that would be a tremendous achievement given tbe schedule Michigan gave the Illini :)

That sounds right. Honestly the 4th one seed leads to better matchups for us IMO. Gonzaga instead of Baylor in the FF, and staying away from big ten teams until late in the tourney (not like other teams can’t beat us, but familiarity in one-off matchups is very beneficial). I don’t put it past Ohio state to knock off a Baylor, because they match up well with them IMO. Would like to avoid a florida state type with athletic, rangy, lengthy wings.
 
#10      
That sounds right. Honestly the 4th one seed leads to better matchups for us IMO. Gonzaga instead of Baylor in the FF, and staying away from big ten teams until late in the tourney (not like other teams can’t beat us, but familiarity in one-off matchups is very beneficial). I don’t put it past Ohio state to knock off a Baylor, because they match up well with them IMO. Would like to avoid a florida state type with athletic, rangy, lengthy wings.
I am 100% in agreement with you. I really want a chance to play for the NCAA championship much more this year than the BIG championship. Not even playing the same number of games, let alone unbalanced schedule, makes the BIG championship less relevant to me this year than any other. I really feel being the 4th number 1 seed is our best path. Avoiding Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, scUM, and tOSU as long as possible is a huge advantage in 2021. There is (just my opinion) a major drop off after the top 6 teams. If we get the 4th #1 we can’t play any of those teams until the final 4.
 
#11      

Deleted member 186590

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Other than they beat us at our place early...I agree
You have to look at the full resume. But it's not worth debating right now given we will have a chance to beat them and not leave a doubt.

But there is a scenario where we lose to them again, but beat Michigan and win the rest of our games, they lose once more and so we have the same record, we have a better overall case and are two games up on them in the big ten, but they've beaten us twice - if our net is several spots ahead of them, I think that is a clear indicator. I just don't see why the committee would give the net #7 team a 1 seed ahead of the #4 net team, even if they beat the #4 team twice, it would seem to be overreaching to do that
 
#12      
You have to look at the full resume. But it's not worth debating right now given we will have a chance to beat them and not leave a doubt.

But there is a scenario where we lose to them again, but beat Michigan and win the rest of our games, they lose once more and so we have the same record, we have a better overall case and are two games up on them in the big ten, but they've beaten us twice - if our net is several spots ahead of them, I think that is a clear indicator. I just don't see why the committee would give the net #7 team a 1 seed ahead of the #4 net team, even if they beat the #4 team twice, it would seem to be overreaching to do that

The committee doesn't seed teams according to NET, but you know that. The NET is just one component shown on the team sheet. In fact, the committee focuses more on quadrant records than overall NET ranking. OSU has 9 Q1 wins to our 7. They are 11-4 in the first two quadrants to our 11-5. They are 8-3 away from home. Illinois is 6-3. Out strength of record is #5, OSU's is #4.

There are certainly arguments to be made that their resume is our better than ours currently.

It's obviously close, which is why it is getting discussed nationally. Like you said, this will likely be decided on March 6th.
 
#13      
I find this article interesting, presenting an argument to do away with the selection committee and just pick tournament teams based on an objective measure of accomplishment: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/article249265095.html

This article suggests using the "Wins over bubble" statistic, but I've seen arguments for just using the strength of record metric, which measures how strong a team's wins and how weak their losses are.

Taking a quick look at that, let's see how the bracket looks right now based on those two metrics.
WAB: https://barttorvik.com/?sort=34&beg...limit=All&year=2021&top=0&hteam=&quad=5&rpi=#

Interestingly here, at the top, Michigan and Ohio State are rated above Baylor, due to the better wins on their schedules (helped by the fact that Ohio State has played 5 more games than Baylor and Michigan). The at-large quality tournament teams are, in order:

1 seeds: 1) Gonzaga - 2) Michigan - 3) Ohio State - 4) Baylor
2 seeds: 5) Illinois - 6) Alabama - 7) Iowa - 8) West Virginia
3 seeds: 9) Villanova - 10) Clemson - 11) Kansas - 12) Virginia
4 seeds: 13) USC - 14) Creighton - 15) Arkansas - 16) Florida State
5 seeds: 17) Purdue - 18) Wisconsin - 19) Oklahoma - 20) BYU
6 seeds: 21) Houston - 22) Missouri - 23) UCLA - 24) Drake
7 seeds: 25) Virginia Tech - 26) North Carolina - 27) Oregon - 28) Texas
8 seeds: 29) Tennessee - 30) Wichita State - 31) Oklahoma State - 32) LSU
9 seeds: 33) Colorado - 34) Louisville - 35) Boise State - 36) Rutgers
10 seeds: 37) Loyola Chicago - 38) VCU - 39) Belmont - 40) St. Bonaventure
11 seeds: 41) Florida - 42) Texas Tech - 43) Minnesota - 44) Colorado State
12 seeds: 45) Maryland - 49) Winthrop - 50) Western Kentucky
Last 4 in: 46) San Diego State - 47) SMU - 48) Xavier - 51) Indiana
First 4 out: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Connecticut, Richmond
Next 4 out: Navy, Michigan State, Stanford, Colgate

If we go by Strength of Record instead, the bracket looks more like: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/dir/asc/view/overview/sort/sorrank

1 seeds: 1) Gonzaga - 2) Baylor - 3) Michigan - 4) Ohio State
2 seeds: 5) Illinois - 6) Alabama - 7) West Virginia - 8) Villanova
3 seeds: 9) Iowa - 10) Clemson - 11) Kansas - 12) Florida State
4 seeds: 13) Oklahoma - 14) Virginia - 15) Creighton - 16) USC
5 seeds: 17) Arkansas - 18) Missouri - 19) Wisconsin - 20) Virginia Tech
6 seeds: 21) Purdue - 22) Texas - 23) Houston - 24) BYU
7 seeds: 25) UCLA - 26) North Carolina - 27) Oregon - 28) LSU
8 seeds: 29) Tennessee - 30) Oklahoma State - 31) Rutgers - 32) Texas Tech
9 seeds: 33) Louisville - 34) Drake - 35) Wichita State - 36) Minnesota
10 seeds: 37) Florida - 38) Colorado - 39) Boise State - 40) St. Bonaventure
11 seeds: 41) Xavier - 42) VCU - 43) Belmont - 44) Maryland
12 seeds 45) SMU - 46) Western Kentucky - 50) Winthrop
Last 4 in: 47) Indiana - 48) Loyola Chicago - 49) Colorado State - 51) UConn
 
#14      
Another thing to keep an eye on, this year's B1G tournament should be kind of ridiculous, and with 2 weeks to play, nothing specific has been clinched. Michigan could still potentially not get a double bye (though super unlikely), and Nebraska could still potentially climb out of the first day play (though, again, unlikely).

But as for right now, these would be the current matchups:

Day 1:
11) Michigan State v 14) Nebraska
12) Penn State v 13) Northwestern

Day 2:
5) Purdue v PSU/NW
6) Wisconsin v MSU/NE
7) Maryland v 10) Minnesota
8) Rutgers v 9) Indiana

Day 3:
1) Michigan v RU/IU
2) Illinois v MD/MN
3) Ohio State v WI/MSU/NE
4) Iowa v PU/PSU/NW
 
#19      
Maryland just reached #30 NET, making our loss to them Q1. All our losses are currently Q1.
 
#20      

Deleted member 747903

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Maryland just reached #30 NET, making our loss to them Q1. All our losses are currently Q1.
why is no one talking about Mark Turgeon as B10 Coach of the Year? That roster is a far cry from what he had last year and they are going to make the tourney.

I know many people don't think Turgeon is all that great of an in game coach but still...
 
#21      
why is no one talking about Mark Turgeon as B10 Coach of the Year? That roster is a far cry from what he had last year and they are going to make the tourney.

I know many people don't think Turgeon is all that great of an in game coach but still...
The whole 7th place with a losing conference record thing is probably a hurdle.
 
#22      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
Does BTT bracketology go here too?

Amusing observation from this article:

In other developments, holy moly on the Maryland-Rutgers tiebreak:
  • H2H: Tied, 1-1
  • Better record against best in the conference: Both are .000* against Michigan, 1.000 against Illinois, .000 against OSU, and .000 against Iowa, meaning it’s Rutgers’ 1-0 record against Purdue that trumps Maryland’s .500 record. And no, Rutgers won’t play Purdue again—both squads are done against those listed teams, so who do you like of Rutgers (IU, @UNL, @Minn) or Maryland (MSU, @NU, PSU)?
    *Win percentage, not total games, matters. (2-0 > 3-1, but 2-0 = 1-0 and 0-1 = 0-2)

BTT is going to be intense (but everyone already knew that).
 
#25      
why is no one talking about Mark Turgeon as B10 Coach of the Year? That roster is a far cry from what he had last year and they are going to make the tourney.

I know many people don't think Turgeon is all that great of an in game coach but still...
It for sure isn't last year, which was one of the best in the BIG, but they do have talent.

Wiggins is a a top 40 recruit. Scott/Morsell/Ayala, all of them are upper class 4*. I mean they have 4*s riding on the bench. They totally have tournament team talent.

I've heard of the Turgeon bashing and don't get it actually. His teams always come ready to play.
 
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