Bracketology (Week of Feb. 22nd)

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#51      
Forgottonia
So much for the ratings discussion. Are we still a 2 seed? Lot of basketball to be played yet but as of tonight, probably not.
 
#52      
So much for the ratings discussion. Are we still a 2 seed? Lot of basketball to be played yet but as of tonight, probably not.
Yea I think so....probably not the high 2 seed....but still a 2
 
#53      
So much for the ratings discussion. Are we still a 2 seed? Lot of basketball to be played yet but as of tonight, probably not.
Still a 2 seed? Yes.

Still a 2 seed that thinks it should be a 1 seed? Nope.

The good thing, if you can call it that, is that no matter which 2 seed we get, we will still see either Baylor or Gonzaga as our 1 seed. We cannot be in a pool with Michigan or OSU.
 
#54      
Still a 2 seed? Yes.

Still a 2 seed that thinks it should be a 1 seed? Nope.

The good thing, if you can call it that, is that no matter which 2 seed we get, we will still see either Baylor or Gonzaga as our 1 seed. We cannot be in a pool with Michigan or OSU.
Yeah I think the 1 seed is gone unless we run the table.
 
#55      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
Still a 2-seed. Still have opportunities to move up to a 1-seed if we pick up at least 3 more wins to end the regular season and make it to the BTT championship game.
 
#56      
We are looking at a low-2 seed rn, we have a chance to boost it to a 1 seed with a win and drop to a 3 if we got 2-2. We got this, I think we finish 3-1 and get a solid 2 seed although I like our big ten tourney chances
 
#57      
IMHO, too early to seed IL. IF we win against tOSU + UM, then I think 2nd seed is more than likely. Perhaps even a 1 seed. But, losses at those two could also mean 3 seed.

Just my thought
 
#58      
IMHO, too early to seed IL. IF we win against tOSU + UM, then I think 2nd seed is more than likely. Perhaps even a 1 seed. But, losses at those two could also mean 3 seed.

Just my thought
I really think it depends. I mean you look at the 2 line and 3 line and there aren't many teams that are going to pass us unless a couple of them get hot. Losing to two top 5 teams on the road is not going to affect our seeding. Winning these next two games are vital to holding on to the 2 seed.
 
#61      
Has the whole, "no 1 and 2 seed from the same conference in the same region" always been a thing? I thought they always avoided sweet 16 matchups between conference foes whenever possible but I had never heard of avoiding it in the Elite 8.

edit: And is it just with 1s and 2s? Like does it extend deeper? For example, would a 3 seed Iowa or 4 seed Purdue be put with like Gonzaga, and 2 seed Illinois be put with Baylor, to avoid OSU and Mich as 1s the other regions?
 
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#62      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
Has the whole, "no 1 and 2 seed from the same conference in the same region" always been a thing? I thought they always avoided sweet 16 matchups between conference foes whenever possible but I had never heard of avoiding it in the Elite 8.

edit: And is it just with 1s and 2s? Like does it extend deeper? For example, would a 3 seed Iowa or 4 seed Purdue be put with like Gonzaga, and 2 seed Illinois be put with Baylor, to avoid OSU and Mich as 1s the other regions?
These are the "longstanding rules" identified in this article:

  • Each of the top four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
  • Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
  • Teams from the same conference shall not meet before the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
  • Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season, to include the conference tournament.
  • If possible, rematches of nonconference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round.

So, based upon the first "rule," if the top four in a conference are seeded on the first four lines, they try to split them up into different regions.
 
#63      
And Baylor just managed to dodge WVU tomorrow night. Game is cancelled, will not be rescheduled. Interesting they decide to give Baylor an extra two days off between games on the heels of Baylor getting pushed to the limit by a horrendous Iowa State team last night.
Good news, the B1G is not the only conference trying to do whatever possible to protect their #1 seed.
 
#64      
I was most interested in seeing the rules/procedures in the event of infection.
I can't find anything on that. Once the tourney kicks off, I think there will be every possibility of a forfeit if a team cannot field enough players due to quarantine rules (based on contact tracing, tests, etc). I hope all the hotels have platinum-level internet plans.
 
#65      
So much for the ratings discussion. Are we still a 2 seed? Lot of basketball to be played yet but as of tonight, probably not.
It'll be interesting to see if the Committee keeps with the KenPom stats (where Illinois is still top 5), or they go by the record. If we finish 18-10 (1-3 final 4 games, and 1-1 in BTT), I mean is an 18-10 team a 2 or 3 seed, even though we'll almost assuredly be a top 10 KenPom team even with 10 losses?
 
#66      
It'll be interesting to see if the Committee keeps with the KenPom stats (where Illinois is still top 5), or they go by the record. If we finish 18-10 (1-3 final 4 games, and 1-1 in BTT), I mean is an 18-10 team a 2 or 3 seed, even though we'll almost assuredly be a top 10 KenPom team even with 10 losses?
The age old advanced stats v. traditional stats question. I'm not confident we're at a place where the KenPom stats will trump traditional win/loss where they diverge. If we were, Purdue would have been a tournament team last season, and I think most if not all bracket projections had them out (we will never know for sure of course), including KenPom's. Check out the link below, every team ranked 1-42 is projected to be in the bracket except Purdue, who was ranked #24. Their 16-15 record was going to likely keep them out. Likewise, if we had 10 losses and none of the other top 10 teams had more than, say, 7, I could see that dropping us to a 4, even if our KenPom remains high. (if you don't believe me check out Ohio St. and West Virginia in the link below).

 
#68      
Really hope we do better than 1-3 the rest of the way
Agreed.

A 1-3 record would have me assuming we beat Nebraska, and lose to the rest. Even though "the rest" would include three top-25 teams (including two top-5 teams), it'd be hard to convince a committee that's #2 seed worthy.
 
#70      

Teams will just have to forfeit if they can't field enough players due to COVID and no replacement teams will be added once the tournament starts.
 
#71      
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Johns Creek, GA

Teams will just have to forfeit if they can't field enough players due to COVID and no replacement teams will be added one the tournament starts.
This should've applied to regular season games IMO.
 
#72      
If it takes Ayo a few games to come back and we lose without him but then look good with him in the BTT, does the NCAA take that into account when determining our seed?
 
#75      

Teams will just have to forfeit if they can't field enough players due to COVID and no replacement teams will be added once the tournament starts.

Some of the additional details on this:

-There will be no reseedings or bracket changes once the bracket is released on Selection Sunday, and replacement teams will only be introduced within 48 hours of the field's release. Potential at-large teams unable to meet the medical protocols by the first game of the NCAA tournament must notify the selection committee on the Saturday night before the field is announced.
-Replacement teams will be determined in one of two ways, depending on whether the team withdrawing is a one-bid conference's automatic qualifier or from a multibid league.
-One-bid leagues are able to designate a replacement team if their automatic qualifier is forced to withdraw. If a team from a multibid league, whether it's an at-large team or an automatic qualifier, is forced to withdraw, the last four teams not selected as at-large teams in the original field will be ranked 1-4 and designated as the replacement teams. Replacement teams will be placed in the same bracket position vacated by the withdrawing team.
-Once the NCAA tournament begins on Thursday, March 18, there will be no replacement teams. As a result, forfeits could come into play.
 
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