Bracketology (Week of Feb. 22nd)

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#101      
Would anyone else just much rather not play the BTT at all?? I get that it makes $$$ but without ticket sales, putting a bunch of teams together right before the big dance is just a stupid COVID risk. Maybe teams can opt out and if so, we should. We really have nothing to gain by playing, especially if it’s without Ayo.
I agree. I said a few days ago that I think the BTT should be cancelled. The teams will be at risk. Just because there is testing doesn't mean someone can't catch it. If any teams miss the dance then I will be back with much cursing. Stupid risk in my opinion.
 
#102      
Fun time of year --should be a wild ride.

No repleacements in the big Dance

NCAA says it will allow substitutes up until the tourney starts, but after the dance starts, it's play or forfeit. They'll have a waiting list of 4 at large teams, and auto-bid leagues will be allowed to send a runner-up or other replacement prior to the start.

Would it be funny to see a blue-blood like Duke get put on the waiting list, and then actually get in?
 
#103      
Fun time of year --should be a wild ride.

No repleacements in the big Dance

NCAA says it will allow substitutes up until the tourney starts, but after the dance starts, it's play or forfeit. They'll have a waiting list of 4 at large teams, and auto-bid leagues will be allowed to send a runner-up or other replacement prior to the start.

Would it be funny to see a blue-blood like Duke get put on the waiting list, and then actually get in?
So with these waiting list teams, potentially if we end up a 2-seed and our 15-seed matchup can't participate due to Covid, we could be faced with a first four out team, right? Presumably would be a much tougher opponent. Could even mean facing MSU in the first round?
 
#104      
So with these waiting list teams, potentially if we end up a 2-seed and our 15-seed matchup can't participate due to Covid, we could be faced with a first four out team, right? Presumably would be a much tougher opponent. Could even mean facing MSU in the first round?
A 15 seed would likely be an automatic qualifier from a weaker conference and if they can't participate they would elect for another team in the conference to play. Don't think this would change much.
 
#105      
A 15 seed would likely be an automatic qualifier from a weaker conference and if they can't participate they would elect for another team in the conference to play. Don't think this would change much.

This is exactly what would happen. For example, Lunardi has the Illini facing Siena in the first round. Siena has had covid issues this season at different points. If Siena had to drop out before the tournament started, then the MAAC would decide who their replacement would be. Based on the current MAAC standings, the next two teams that the conference could choose would be either Iona or Monmouth.

This same story has been posted about over in the bracketology thread as well.
 
#107      
So I know this is mostly focused on NCAA tournament stuff, but I'm looking at the standings and I think if we win today or Iowa or Purdue lose their next game (Hawkeyes at OSU tomorrow; Purdue hosts Wisky Tuesday), then Illini clinch a double bye and wouldn't play til Friday (probably Friday night) of B1G Tournament.
 
#109      
So I know this is mostly focused on NCAA tournament stuff, but I'm looking at the standings and I think if we win today or Iowa or Purdue lose their next game (Hawkeyes at OSU tomorrow; Purdue hosts Wisky Tuesday), then Illini clinch a double bye and wouldn't play til Friday (probably Friday night) of B1G Tournament.
We earned the Double Bye today
 
#110      
Despite the MSU loss this week, with losses by Oklahoma (x2), Alabama, Florida State, and Iowa, it's looking like Illinois is pretty certain for at worst a 2 seed, even if they lose out (especially if Ayo is out for them all). They could get passed in the S-Curve by Villanova, maybe even West Virginia, but 4 teams are not passing them in the next week.
 
#111      
Fun facts: the top 16 teams in strength of schedule in KenPom:

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#114      
The NCAA has put forth tournament guidelines regarding COVID issues:
- Before the tournament, the NCAA will announce and bubble the first 4 teams out, and if any at-large team is forced out due to COVID protocol, those teams will be inserted into the tournament in that spot, and no re-seeding would happen (so, if Gonzaga locked down the #1 overall seed and then went down with COVID, the first time out of the bracket, like, for example, Duke, would get slotted into the #1 overall seed in their place).
- Any automatic qualifier that is forced out due to COVID protocol can be replaced by another team in that conference, assigned by that conference.
- Once the tournament has started, any team that is forced out due to COVID protocol automatically forfeits their subsequent game, and the opponent advances by default.
 
#116      
Indeed. And it looks like if Iowa pulls off the upset tomorrow, then Illinois would only have to split their games the final week to earn the 2 seed for the B1G Tournament.
If Iowa wins tomorrow, Illinois is at worst the 2 seed in the B1G tournament, as they could finish at worst tied with iowa and Purdue, and would win the tiebreaker vs both (W head to head against each).
 
#117      
If Iowa wins tomorrow, Illinois is at worst the 2 seed in the B1G tournament, as they could finish at worst tied with iowa and Purdue, and would win the tiebreaker vs both (W head to head against each).

Exactly. For Ohio State to get the 2 seed, they'd have to win tomorrow and also defeat Illinois in the regular season finale next Saturday (which the Ohio State website shows as a 3:00 PM CT start on ESPN) and hope Illinois loses at Michigan.
 
#118      
Nunge is done for the season (and likely more) and Fredrick is dealing with another ankle sprain so iowa is gonna have an uphill battle.
But here's hoping!
 
#119      
I think you misread my comments - I said no upside to the top B10 teams which is true- there is nothing we will do in the BTT to improve our seed - even winning it historically has not impacted seeding much at all

As you know - it only takes one positive test to impact everyone in close contact with that person

The BTT could absolutely impact who ends up on the 1 seed line vs. 2 seed line.

What's your point? That doesn't counter any of my points at all. It's worthless conjecture.
 
#120      
Baylor could very well lose two of their remaining three regular season.games. And wouldn't that make things interesting. 🤔
 
#121      
Exactly. For Ohio State to get the 2 seed, they'd have to win tomorrow and also defeat Illinois in the regular season finale next Saturday (which the Ohio State website shows as a 3:00 PM CT start on ESPN) and hope Illinois loses at Michigan.
You are correct. Go Hawkeyes!

And then very little incentive for us to rush Ayo back next week. Follow the doctors' advice and counsel. Ayo could actually use the BTT to regain his basketball legs.
 
#122      
Baylor could very well lose two of their remaining three regular season.games. And wouldn't that make things interesting. 🤔

I think it's actually better for them. It seems unlikely IMHO that they are any worse of a team, and there's psychological pressure and errors of judgment from recency bias that come with continued "perfection." I think it's hard even in a short season like college football, where the post-season implications are much worse than in bball. As a practical matter, losing to a ranked KU won't hurt them.

To my mind, they'll be that much more dangerous with a late season loss giving them focus.
 
#123      
As I look at the updated NET rankings this morning, I think it's highly probable we are teetering on the 4th #1 seed on the ballots of the NCAA committee.

NET
1. Gonzaga
2. Michigan
3. Baylor
4. Houston
5. Illinois

And Houston has played only 3 Quad1 games vs. our 13. I don't think there's any way the committee puts Houston ahead of us right now. Sure would be nice to split our next two games!!!
 
#124      
As I look at the updated NET rankings this morning, I think it's highly probable we are teetering on the 4th #1 seed on the ballots of the NCAA committee.

NET
1. Gonzaga
2. Michigan
3. Baylor
4. Houston
5. Illinois

And Houston has played only 3 Quad1 games vs. our 13. I don't think there's any way the committee puts Houston ahead of us right now. Sure would be nice to split our next two games!!!
That works, or make us the two seed in a bracket with Houston as the one.
 
#125      
Looking at bracketmatrix, Gonzaga/Baylor/Michigan are looking like locks - not a single bracket having them anywhere but a 1 seed. That final #1 seed is where the action is. Currently tOSU has it, and it's not close. After that is a tight race for the next seed:

tOSU
Illinois
Alabama
Villanova

With remaining away games at both Mich and tOSU, I don't see any other conclusion than the guys control their own destiny for the last #1 seed. It's a very tall order, granted, but it's there. There's no clarity at this point, although I think even losing both and an early exit in the BTT, it's a 3-4 seed.

Brutal finish to the season. Absolutely brutal. They're finishing the regular season with back to back away games against FF level teams.
 
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