Bracketology (Week of Feb. 22nd)

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#76      
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
It's a long shot, but Michigan hasn't entirely locked up the B1G title yet. MSU has shown they can find ways to compete against better teams. If MSU can split their season series with Michigan, and we can also beat Michigan, that alone would put Michigan at 14-3 to end their season. If we can run the table and get to 16-4 (no small feat), that would put us 0.5 a game ahead of Michigan in the final standings. Michigan would be slightly ahead of us by win percentage (82.4 vs. 80), but we would own the head-to-head win. That scenario would put a lot of pressure on the league to determine who should get the title.

If Michigan somehow drops to 13-4, we could also drop to 15-5 and still have a repeat of the scenario above (where we would be 0.5 a game ahead of them in the standings, but behind them by win percentage). And if Michigan has an epic collapse to 12-5, we could have a multi-team tie at 14-6.

In other words, it's not entirely over yet. Just mostly over.
 
#77      
Texas
It's a long shot, but Michigan hasn't entirely locked up the B1G title yet. MSU has shown they can find ways to compete against better teams. If MSU can split their season series with Michigan, and we can also beat Michigan, that alone would put Michigan at 14-3 to end their season. If we can run the table and get to 16-4 (no small feat), that would put us 0.5 a game ahead of Michigan in the final standings. Michigan would be slightly ahead of us by win percentage (82.4 vs. 80), but we would own the head-to-head win. That scenario would put a lot of pressure on the league to determine who should get the title.

If Michigan somehow drops to 13-4, we could also drop to 15-5 and still have a repeat of the scenario above (where we would be 0.5 a game ahead of them in the standings, but behind them by win percentage). And if Michigan has an epic collapse to 12-5, we could have a multi-team tie at 14-6.

In other words, it's not entirely over yet. Just mostly over.
I'm fine with whatever happens at this point. I'm just so stoked we're actually going to be playing in the dance. Can't wait to see what these guys have in store for their final act.
 
#78      
, that alone would put Michigan at 14-3 to end their season. If we can run the table and get to 16-4 (no small feat), that would put us 0.5 a game ahead of Michigan in the final standings. Michigan would be slightly ahead of us by win percentage (82.4 vs. 80), but we would own the head-to-head win. That scenario would put a lot of pressure on the league to determine who should get the title.
It’s pretty clear we win the Big Ten in that scenario if we’re a half game up at the end of the year- that’s just the way standings work- in your local Y league, grade school, HS etc.
If the Big Ten somehow changed the way win-loss records work to give the title to the % winner there would be an outcry. It doesn’t matter enough in bball to change the rules. Football was different in that they had to determine who went to the B10 Championship game which had huge National implications- that’s just not the case here

I honestly don’t care anymore - I just want to beat Michigan!
 
#79      
It's a long shot, but Michigan hasn't entirely locked up the B1G title yet. MSU has shown they can find ways to compete against better teams. If MSU can split their season series with Michigan, and we can also beat Michigan, that alone would put Michigan at 14-3 to end their season. If we can run the table and get to 16-4 (no small feat), that would put us 0.5 a game ahead of Michigan in the final standings. Michigan would be slightly ahead of us by win percentage (82.4 vs. 80), but we would own the head-to-head win. That scenario would put a lot of pressure on the league to determine who should get the title.

If Michigan somehow drops to 13-4, we could also drop to 15-5 and still have a repeat of the scenario above (where we would be 0.5 a game ahead of them in the standings, but behind them by win percentage). And if Michigan has an epic collapse to 12-5, we could have a multi-team tie at 14-6.

In other words, it's not entirely over yet. Just mostly over.

And IU is fighting for their tournament lives, so I could see them upsetting Michigan as well. Not over yet.
 
#80      
And IU is fighting for their tournament lives, so I could see them upsetting Michigan as well. Not over yet.
I'm on the side of "It's over". Let's grab a #2 seed in the BTT. We have perhaps our three toughest games of the season upcoming, and I don't expect us to be favored in any of the 3. Plus, I'm more and more skeptical with each passing day that we're going to have Ayo back anytime soon.

AT Wisc
AT Mich
AT OSU
 
#81      
I'm on the side of "It's over". Let's grab a #2 seed in the BTT. We have perhaps our three toughest games of the season upcoming, and I don't expect us to be favored in any of the 3. Plus, I'm more and more skeptical with each passing day that we're going to have Ayo back anytime soon.

AT Wisc
AT Mich
AT OSU
Yeah at this point the rest of the season is starting to depress me a bit. Conference title is gone, 1 seed is basically gone, 2 seed hopes are on thin ice.
 
#82      
Denver, CO
Yeah at this point the rest of the season is starting to depress me a bit. Conference title is gone, 1 seed is basically gone, 2 seed hopes are on thin ice.
I think a 3 seed with Ayo back and it’s a small chip on the shoulder. We then go on a tear. This team at full strength is still really good regardless of a #2 or #3 by their name.

plus if we fall to a 3 seed, that’s pretty much the same as our spot before. We likely got replaced by a 3 seed playing up into a 2 seed. Now if we fall to a 4 seed.... that’s a different story.
 
#83      
Denver, CO
Would anyone else just much rather not play the BTT at all?? I get that it makes $$$ but without ticket sales, putting a bunch of teams together right before the big dance is just a stupid COVID risk. Maybe teams can opt out and if so, we should. We really have nothing to gain by playing, especially if it’s without Ayo.
 
#85      
I think a 3 seed with Ayo back and it’s a small chip on the shoulder. We then go on a tear. This team at full strength is still really good regardless of a #2 or #3 by their name.

plus if we fall to a 3 seed, that’s pretty much the same as our spot before. We likely got replaced by a 3 seed playing up into a 2 seed. Now if we fall to a 4 seed.... that’s a different story.
I think the 2-3 distinction isn't massive, but a 6 vs 7 seed in the second round is a pretty big distinction, and this team really struggles against weaker opponents. That worries me. A 6 seed is no pushover, they're going to have to bring it to beat a team like that. Not to mention with 3 really tough games left there's no telling if we get a single win, and if we don't I'd say 4 is more likely than 3.
 
#86      
2 seed or 3 seed is not that much different. A 4 seed would be a tougher road - less chance for a 1 seed to be upset before we have to do it ourselves.

Win one more and we should be at least a 3 with a double bye in BTT - at this point, having less BTT games to play is a very good thing.
 
#88      
Even if we only win one of the next three (with Ayo missing possibly all of those games) I see us staying at a two seed, hopefully the committee will take into account Ayo's injury.
 
#89      
Admin
3 weeks from right now is the very first Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game 🗓️ Almost there, yet still a ways to go. Go Illini
 
#92      
It's a long shot, but Michigan hasn't entirely locked up the B1G title yet. MSU has shown they can find ways to compete against better teams. If MSU can split their season series with Michigan, and we can also beat Michigan, that alone would put Michigan at 14-3 to end their season. If we can run the table and get to 16-4 (no small feat), that would put us 0.5 a game ahead of Michigan in the final standings. Michigan would be slightly ahead of us by win percentage (82.4 vs. 80), but we would own the head-to-head win. That scenario would put a lot of pressure on the league to determine who should get the title.

If Michigan somehow drops to 13-4, we could also drop to 15-5 and still have a repeat of the scenario above (where we would be 0.5 a game ahead of them in the standings, but behind them by win percentage). And if Michigan has an epic collapse to 12-5, we could have a multi-team tie at 14-6.

In other words, it's not entirely over yet. Just mostly over.
Ill Be Back Jim Carrey GIF
 
#94      
Even if we only win one of the next three (with Ayo missing possibly all of those games) I see us staying at a two seed, hopefully the committee will take into account Ayo's injury.
I get what you're saying but why would we stay a 2 seed? If we are worse without Ayo, and he's still missing, we don't deserve a 2 seed.
 
#95      
Would anyone else just much rather not play the BTT at all?? I get that it makes $$$ but without ticket sales, putting a bunch of teams together right before the big dance is just a stupid COVID risk. Maybe teams can opt out and if so, we should. We really have nothing to gain by playing, especially if it’s without Ayo.
100%- there is no upside to any of the top B10 teams playing in the BTT- they only risk getting a positive test and being without players or worse yet the whole team and miss the NCAA tourny - I wouldn’t blame any team that opts out - frankly giving the bottom teams a chance at the auto bid makes sense for the B10
 
#96      
100%- there is no upside to any of the top B10 teams playing in the BTT- they only risk getting a positive test and being without players or worse yet the whole team and miss the NCAA tourny - I wouldn’t blame any team that opts out - frankly giving the bottom teams a chance at the auto bid makes sense for the B10

There is no upside? Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, and Maryland all will have opportunities to play their way into the NCAA tournament with a big win or two.

Teams like Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue all have opportunities to improve their seed.

Why are some people so damn afraid of the BTT? With everyone being tested, it's highly unlikely that Covid just bounces from team to team.

Not to mention, we will have multiple other conference tournaments that happen before ours so IF these are a terrible idea, we will know before the Big Ten's even starts.
 
#98      
There is no upside? Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, and Maryland all will have opportunities to play their way into the NCAA tournament with a big win or two.

Teams like Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Purdue all have opportunities to improve their seed.

Why are some people so damn afraid of the BTT? With everyone being tested, it's highly unlikely that Covid just bounces from team to team.

Not to mention, we will have multiple other conference tournaments that happen before ours so IF these are a terrible idea, we will know before the Big Ten's even starts.
I think you misread my comments - I said no upside to the top B10 teams which is true- there is nothing we will do in the BTT to improve our seed - even winning it historically has not impacted seeding much at all

As you know - it only takes one positive test to impact everyone in close contact with that person
 
#99      
Washington State
Would anyone else just much rather not play the BTT at all?? I get that it makes $$$ but without ticket sales, putting a bunch of teams together right before the big dance is just a stupid COVID risk. Maybe teams can opt out and if so, we should. We really have nothing to gain by playing, especially if it’s without Ayo.
No can do. I already have those as approved vacation days from work. :)
 
#100      
I think you misread my comments - I said no upside to the top B10 teams which is true- there is nothing we will do in the BTT to improve our seed - even winning it historically has not impacted seeding much at all

As you know - it only takes one positive test to impact everyone in close contact with that person

Still not entirely true.

If we beat Michigan in the regular season, and then see them in the BTT and beat them again, it will definitely help with seeding.

We’ve seen before that bracketologists have used head to head matchups to put one team over another. (a week and a half ago tOSU got the nod over us for the final 1 seed because of our head to head matchup)

So the BTT can DEFINITELY still help the seeding for top teams in the conference.
 
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