Bracketology (Week of March 1st)

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#51      
Deleted member 747903
lstewart53x3 said:
We’re in control over our own destiny, yeah?

Even if we lose tonight, if we win @OSU, there’s a very good chance at a 1 seed.

If we lose both of the next two games, we’re unlikely to get the 1 seed, but very likely to still earn a 2 seed, especially if we win at least one game in the B1G tourney.

I like the way that feels.
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If west Virginia holds on against Baylor I get worried a win over Ohio state isn’t enough
 
#52      
Deleted member 11228
nycillini said:
If west Virginia holds on against Baylor I get worried a win over Ohio state isn’t enough
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Don't because it is. Our ranking, SOS, NET, wins over Q1 teams is enough. More than actually.
 
#56      
foby
bootsy said:
We already did. No one has a better win on their resume than ours tonight.
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However, if we lost the next 2, then doubt creeps in. Win this one, all doubt is gone.
 
#57      
iLL 89ers
foby said:
Let's take any doubt out of the 1 seed.
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Truly think that was resolved tonight ,, it just has to with all the Quad 1 games (with their victories) on this years schedule this team has played to date.
 
#59      
Deleted member 11228
the juiceman cometh said:
I could maybe see it if Iowa or OSU wins the BTT.
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I just feel like it's too late at that point. Both of those teams lost to Michigan, Iowa got crushed by them. Both are going to be behind us and Michigan in the conference standings. I can't justify either of those teams being ahead of us in seeding.
 
#60      
foby
the juiceman cometh said:
I could maybe see it if Iowa or OSU wins the BTT.
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If we would lose the next 2 we would be 19-8. If Iowa wins their next 2 and the BTT, they are 23-7, pretty sure it would not be a maybe in the eyes of the selection committee. If OSU beats us, then wins the BTT, they'll be 22-7, and would have swept us, again most likely not a maybe. Win this one and it's pretty much clinched for us.
 
#61      
Goode-for-3
Hypothetically, if OSU beats Illinois in this game and Purdue beats Wisconsin tonight and Indiana then OSU would be a #5 Seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

If OSU wins the Big Ten tournament defeating Northwestern/Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, and Iowa along the way they would finish with an overall record of 23-7 (17-7 = 71% in Big Ten games). OSU would also improve to 10-5 in Quad 1 games.

If Illinois loses to OSU and then loses the first game in the BTT to Wisconsin/Indiana then Illinois would finish with an overall record of 19-8 (15-6 = 71% in Big Ten games). Illinois would finish 8-7 in Quad 1 games.

Looking at those 2 potential final resumes it seems pretty clear that OSU could finish ahead of Illinois if they win out and Illinois loses out... HOWEVER if Illinois wins this game the conversation dies.

If Illinois beats OSU and then loses the first game in the BTT to Wisconsin/Indiana then Illinois would finish with an overall record of 20-7 (16-5 = 76% in Big Ten games). Illinois would finish 9-6 in Quad 1 games.

Even if OSU wins the Big Ten tournament defeating Northwestern/Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, and Iowa along the way they would finish with an overall record of 22-8 (16-8 = 67% in Big Ten games). OSU would also improve to 9-6 in Quad 1 games.

Illinois would have split the series with OSU and have the same Q1 record but have a stronger B10 slate which probably is enough to tip the scales in favor of the Illini.

TLDR: This game matters for killing OSU's hopes of taking the #1 seed from Illinois.
 
#62      
illiniapolis
I think we're by far the front runner for a 1 seed. I've been saying 2 more wins and we lock it up. We got the first (and hardest). We grab one more Saturday and there's absolutely no question. If we run the BTT we might be looking at the #2 overall seed.
 
#63      
Goode-for-3
illiniapolis said:
I think we're by far the front runner for a 1 seed. I've been saying 2 more wins and we lock it up. We got the first (and hardest). We grab one more Saturday and there's absolutely no question. If we run the BTT we might be looking at the #2 overall seed.
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I think there’s good reason to think Illinois may already have surpassed Baylor. Baylor may have returned to preseason form but Illinois is clearly clicking on a whole different level than we were when we faced them earlier this season... winning the BTT would pretty much guarantee a top 2 overall position. (ESP if we also beat OSU and finish with the most wins in the Big Ten conference)
 
#64      
kyillinifan
Beat OSU Sat. We have a one seed. Then let mich lose twice to MSU. Boom goes the dynamite. I wonder what happened to the great announcer from Ball St?
 
#67      
I11ini82
We have 8 true road wins, the most of any major conference team.

We have 9 Q1 wins, the most in the nation.

We have 14 Q1 + Q2 wins, which is tied with Alabama for most in the nation.
 
#68      
1stsgttb
I am waiting for the scared people who don't want the 3 overall cause we would play Baylor in the semis. I want to be the champs and we have to beat the them all
 
#69      
I11ini82
I'm more concerned that 3 of our 6 losses currently sit on the 8/9 line (Missouri, Rutgers, Maryland) and that's going to be the caliber of our second round opponent. We're obviously the better team, but we'll need to come ready and focused for that game.
 
#70      
Deleted member 747903
I11ini82 said:
I'm more concerned that 3 of our 6 losses currently sit on the 8/9 line (Missouri, Rutgers, Maryland) and that's going to be the caliber of our second round opponent. We're obviously the better team, but we'll need to come ready and focused for that game.
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Normally I'd agree but an 8/9 B10 team is likely a 4-5 in another conference.
 
#71      
I11ini82
nycillini said:
Normally I'd agree but an 8/9 B10 team is likely a 4-5 in another conference.
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Huh? Missouri isn't a Big Ten team and these are teams in the 29-36 range of the final S curve, regardless of conference affiliation. They should all be teams of roughly the same caliber.
 
#72      
EyeoftheIllini
1stsgttb said:
I am waiting for the scared people who don't want the 3 overall cause we would play Baylor in the semis. I want to be the champs and we have to beat the them all
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Actually not true. We don’t have to beat the teams that are beat prior to playing us. That said and though I’d prefer not having to play Baylor until potentially the finals, not too concerned with overall seedings and potential opponents.
 
#73      
jrichisamazing
So since we're pretty much locked into that 2 seed for the BTT...who would you guys want to see as a potential 7/10 seed? Some options...

-Pop Indiana's bubble
-Pop MSU's bubble
-Revenge on Rutgers
-Revenge on Maryland

Also would love to see Iowa on the other side of the bracket and we meet them in the championship game. Hopefully giving Ayo is NPOY moment.
 
#74      
WhiteHorseWings
1stsgttb said:
I am waiting for the scared people who don't want the 3 overall cause we would play Baylor in the semis. I want to be the champs and we have to beat the them all
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Baylor won’t be the 3 when they lose one of their remaining 2 and don’t win their tournament
 
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