I don't understand the love for Oklahoma State among the bracket guru's. Are they just enamored with Cade Cunningham? Oklahoma State is 30th in KenPom, 29th in the Net and 26th in Sagarin. Their highest ranking is 12th in the AP Poll. Sagarin does have a recency rating which has them at 10th (Illinois is now 1st). None of those put them on the 2 seed line.
Bracketology (Week of March 8th)
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They are 8th in strength of record (SOR, which is on the committee's nitty gritty sheets), and 8th in wins above bubble. They have 10 Quad 1 wins, which is a clear second in the nation (behind, you guessed it, Illinois)
Incidentally, Illinois is 2nd in Wins Above Bubble (Baylor is 4th behind Michigan), just 0.3 behind Gonzaga. Be curious if a win today bumps them to #1.
it should ahead of texas because they beat ok state in the big 12 tournament no? texas would be a horrible matchup for us tho basically a better version of Maryland
Today's Sagarin top 25, with weighting for recent play (aka, who has had the best last 2 weeks):
1. Illinois
2. Gonzaga
3. Iowa
4. Baylor
5. Alabama
6. Michigan
7. Ohio State
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas
10. Oklahoma State
11. San Diego State
12. Houston
13. Georgia Tech
14. Texas
15. Arkansas
16. LSU
17. Connecticut
18. Loyola-Chicago
19. BYU
20. Colorado
21. Oregon State
22. Purdue
23. Virginia
24. North Carolina
25. Syracuse
1. Illinois
2. Gonzaga
3. Iowa
4. Baylor
5. Alabama
6. Michigan
7. Ohio State
8. Georgetown
9. Kansas
10. Oklahoma State
11. San Diego State
12. Houston
13. Georgia Tech
14. Texas
15. Arkansas
16. LSU
17. Connecticut
18. Loyola-Chicago
19. BYU
20. Colorado
21. Oregon State
22. Purdue
23. Virginia
24. North Carolina
25. Syracuse
texillwek
🔶🔹🔸🔷
I recently started using "theScore" app and really like it so far. Trying to wean myself off of espn
Texas is right there too. But I haven't really seen anyone put them on the 2 line.
Yes. Those SOR and WAB rankings seem to align most closely with the projections (at least at the top). Perhaps those are the only ones worth paying attention to? Interesting that Maryland is 47/48 in those rankings yet most have them in.
Andy katz has them in our bracket as a 2 wouldn’t be surprised if i’m state gets it but i’d probably rather play ok state than texas
It'll be interesting for the teams with the largest disparity between SOR and NET to see where the committee lands. Heck, Penn State is right there in NET/SOR/WAB rankings, but they're 11-14 and nowhere near anyone's radar. I could only imagine the meltdown in bubble fans if somehow PSU is in the First Four.
Ah, I didn't see that. My guess is the committee puts Houston there if they win today, but that's just a pure guess.
Deleted member 11159
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Guest
Man, listening to sports radio today, and Illinois is getting ZERO love. Talk about flying under the radar. All the talk is STILL about Gonzaga, how great Michigan is, and what a surprise Ohio State is. Even Baylor is getting more respect.
The Illini should rightfully have a chip on their shoulder. Even when this program is good, nobody notices...
The Illini should rightfully have a chip on their shoulder. Even when this program is good, nobody notices...
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
LarryGotFouled
- Plano, TX
I agree - I think with the restriction on separating the BIG teams into different regions, it's fairly obvious at this point that Mich / ALA will be paired up as the weakest 1 / strongest 2 - either way. Iowa and OSU will match up with Baylor and Gonzaga and IL has to get the other 2 non-BIG 2 seed - likely Houston.
Here's a breakdown of the state of the bracket:
1. There are 21 conference auto bid teams that would not have made the tournament as an at-large, including a potential 22nd in Cincinnati if they win today. That will cover the 6 16 seeds (2 play in games), 4 15 seeds, 4 14 seeds, 4 13 seeds, and 3-4 12 seeds.
2. On the lower end we have the conference tournament Cinderellas in lower conferences like Mount St. Mary's, Appalachian State, Hartford, Drexel, Texas Southern and Norfolk State , your 16 seeds.
3. Beyond them it's your slightly better one-bid conference champs like Iona, Oral Roberts, Eastern Washington, and Abilene Christian, your likely 15 seeds. Above them are your solid one-bid conference champions like Grand Canyon, Ohio, UNC Greensboro, Cleveland State, Morehead State, North Texas, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara and Liberty, your low 12 and 13-14 seeds.
4. Above them are your major conference upset champions, Oregon State, Georgetown, and possibly Cincinnati as other 12 seeds.
5. On the top end of the bracket, Gonzaga is your 100% #1 seed. Baylor is about 90% the #2 overall 1 seed, Illinois is more than likely the #3 1 seed and Michigan is at worst the #4 1 seed.
6. Since Ohio State is in the FTT final and Iowa won their first round games, they are likely 2 seeds, along with Alabama who is a sure thing on the #2 line for making the SEC final.
7. After that, it gets a little more fuzzy with a litany of Big 12 teams that are all very similar (Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, West Virginia), along with Houston who can still win their conference championship. Toss in Purdue, Virginia, Florida State, Creighton and those are your likely 3-4-5 seeds.
8. 6-11 seeds are effectively splitting hairs overall, but obviously some teams are much safer than others.
1. There are 21 conference auto bid teams that would not have made the tournament as an at-large, including a potential 22nd in Cincinnati if they win today. That will cover the 6 16 seeds (2 play in games), 4 15 seeds, 4 14 seeds, 4 13 seeds, and 3-4 12 seeds.
2. On the lower end we have the conference tournament Cinderellas in lower conferences like Mount St. Mary's, Appalachian State, Hartford, Drexel, Texas Southern and Norfolk State , your 16 seeds.
3. Beyond them it's your slightly better one-bid conference champs like Iona, Oral Roberts, Eastern Washington, and Abilene Christian, your likely 15 seeds. Above them are your solid one-bid conference champions like Grand Canyon, Ohio, UNC Greensboro, Cleveland State, Morehead State, North Texas, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara and Liberty, your low 12 and 13-14 seeds.
4. Above them are your major conference upset champions, Oregon State, Georgetown, and possibly Cincinnati as other 12 seeds.
5. On the top end of the bracket, Gonzaga is your 100% #1 seed. Baylor is about 90% the #2 overall 1 seed, Illinois is more than likely the #3 1 seed and Michigan is at worst the #4 1 seed.
6. Since Ohio State is in the FTT final and Iowa won their first round games, they are likely 2 seeds, along with Alabama who is a sure thing on the #2 line for making the SEC final.
7. After that, it gets a little more fuzzy with a litany of Big 12 teams that are all very similar (Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, West Virginia), along with Houston who can still win their conference championship. Toss in Purdue, Virginia, Florida State, Creighton and those are your likely 3-4-5 seeds.
8. 6-11 seeds are effectively splitting hairs overall, but obviously some teams are much safer than others.
That is a possibility because they are more neutral and not biased like Lunardi, Palm and DeCoursey are against the Illini. If we are looking at body of work, we have won 13 of the last 14 while beating ranked teams on the road in which one was a complete demolition of Michigan without Ayo. Being in a better conference, I can see the Committee pulling that trigger especially as Baylor has dropped back some.
Your post is spot on. This has been a weird year for small conference Cinderellas. What is worse for teams that are NIT candidates is that conference champions get Auto Bids and many have lost and will fill many of the 32 spots. It is nice we don’t have to worry about being on the bubble anytime soon as it seems there are a few less Cinderella’s in the mid majors or Power 5 schools. If there is a couple of teams that could make noise with a 13-14 seed would be teams like Ohio, UCSB and Grand Canyon. Solid guard play from these schools will give a 3-4 seed trouble.
Yes they are. Its the limelight syndrome the media likes to push. Texas exposed them yesterday by shutting down ever one else and forcing Cunningham to win it himself. We can rotate three guys on him who has enough size and length to give him trouble. It looks like OKST has fallen back to a 3 seed and will be put in the Zags region as they will be the highest 3 on the board if they closely follow the S curve.
Very few teams have answer for Kofi.
Alabama has defensive minded athletes/wings all over the court that shoot 3ps...they have multiple guys that can beat a team and one of the best young coaches in NCAAB.
Dont count Ala out...I'd personally rather play OSU, but to each his own.
I've been watching a lot of CBS Sports Network and they have been gushing over Illinois all week. I've heard several analysts say they are the biggest threat to Gonzaga and playing better than anyone in the country right now.
Yep! Bilas has talked multiple times about it being unfair that Illinois has two superheroes... Batman and the Hulk.
That's been my sense of it. Not sure anyone can take down Gonzaga, and 3 weeks is a long tournament to get that far. That said, we're as good as anyone and arguably better.
It seems like once every few years there's a team that's heavily favored because they're both loaded and consistent. I think back to 2015 Kentucky, for example. Wisconsin had it's best team every under Bo, and they took them down (only to lose by a couple baskets to Duke in the championship). One of the best upsets I've ever seen. That Kentucky team had a mind-boggling FOUR lottery picks (a record, tied only by the North Carolina team that beat the 2005 Illini), including the #1 overall, plus another pair of draft players for a total of 6.
Gonzaga has Suggs & Kispert in the lottery and Ayayi & Timme also on mock boards.
No matter what, I've been really impressed with this group. Hope they get a banner to hang today, and more accolades as they continue in the big dance.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
Jay Bilas is the only reason to watch ESPN for anything other than only because your team's game is televised there.
This also goes with their broadcast. Yesterday in their college hoops game day they didn’t even MENTION the Illini v Iowa game let alone give it a serious preview even thou it was a matchup with the number 3 and number 5 teams in the country. It was obnoxiously clear they were only interested in promoting matchups they would air rather than being sports journalists.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Been that way for a looooong time. ESPN is great at promoting their products, everything else is ancillary.
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