Bracketology

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#751      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
WestCoastIllini1 said:
It is a classic loss of objectivity and lack of logical reasoning. Northwestern also "sealed the bid" by getting a win (Michigan at home) that Illinois also has.
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They do have 4 more wins than us, and I believe the committee looks at overall record in addition to the various RPI category breakdowns. That's 4 wins in the 101-200 range where we have 3 losses in the top 100, but 4 wins nonetheless.
 
#752      

Tygor

T
Tygor
I don't think there are more at-large teams today. The tournament was expanded to include more conferences I believe without taking away more at-large berths. There were probably a couple years where there were a few less at-large bids, but the number today likely reflects the original spirit of the 64-team tournament.
 
#753      

Domillini87

D
Domillini87
Illinifanatic4ever said:
Can someone come up with a list of bubble teams and who they play this weekend so we have an idea of who to root for and against.
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Bold we need to win. There will likely be a couple of conference tourney games not here.

Tonight:
6:00 ESPN2: Houston @ Cincinnati
6:00 ESPN: Nebraska @ Minnesota
6:30 ESPN3: FIU @ MTSU
8:00 ESPN: Iowa @ Wisconsin
10:00 ESPNU: California @ Utah


Friday:
12:00 FSMW Evansville or Indiana State @ Illinois State - We need the MVC to down to a one team conference


Saturday:
11:00 ESPN Ohio State vs. Indiana
12:00 Kansas State @ Texas Tech
1:00 ESPN2 Georgia @ Arkansas - Probably Arkansas since they are likely in already
1:00 ESPN Florida @ Vanderbilt
1:00 Providence @ St. John's
1:00 California @ Colorado
1:00 Xavier @ DePaul
1:30 Seton Hall @ Butler
1:30 Creighton @ Marquette
2:00 TCU @ Oklahoma
3:00 ESPN3 Boston College @ Clemson
3:00 Georgia Tech @ Syracuse-Probably want GT
3:30 Wake forest @ Virginia Tech
5:30 Washington @ Southern Cal
6:00 Davidson @ Rhode Island


Sunday:
12:00 BTN Penn State @ Iowa
3:00 CBSS Houston @ East Carolina
 
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#754      

ShellbackMB

S
ShellbackMB
True. But we also beat them twice. The point is the resumes are far too similar for one to be a "lock" and one to be on the bubble.

danielb927 said:
They do have 4 more wins than us, and I believe the committee looks at overall record in addition to the various RPI category breakdowns. That's 4 wins in the 101-200 range where we have 3 losses in the top 100, but 4 wins nonetheless.
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#755      

Tygor

T
Tygor
WestCoastIllini1 said:
True. But we also beat them twice. The point is the resumes are far too similar for one to be a "lock" and one to be on the bubble.
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Again, head to head matters virtually zero in the eyes of the committee beyond the rankings of the opponent. This is said year after year by the committee chair.

Also, for those who are pro/con on MSU being the chair, it doesn't really matter because the Big Ten rep has to leave the room when discussing conference teams. It's a good practice, actually.
 
#756      

alaskaillini

A
alaskaillini
If being the 7 seed in the BTT would help perceptions of Illini, then we need Iowa to split (@Wis, PSU) and Michigan to lose at Nebraska. We take the tiebreaker in that case. Also puts us in the Wis, Maryland side of bracket instead of Purdue, Minnesota side. Since Wisky and Maryland have been a little sketchy lately, we might have a better chance of winning 2 or 3 in BTT.

Of course this assumes we get the job done against Rutgers (please o please don't lose that one).
 
#757      

whovous

W
Washington, DC
whovous
alaskaillini said:
If being the 7 seed in the BTT would help perceptions of Illini, then we need Iowa to split (@Wis, PSU) and Michigan to lose at Nebraska. We take the tiebreaker in that case. Also puts us in the Wis, Maryland side of bracket instead of Purdue, Minnesota side. Since Wisky and Maryland have been a little sketchy lately, we might have a better chance of winning 2 or 3 in BTT.

Of course this assumes we get the job done against Rutgers (please o please don't lose that one).
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The problem with this is that the seven seed plays at night while the 8-9 seeds play in the afternoon. Why does this matter? Because I haven't bought my scalpers tickets yet!
 
#758      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
alaskaillini said:
If being the 7 seed in the BTT would help perceptions of Illini, then we need Iowa to split (@Wis, PSU) and Michigan to lose at Nebraska. We take the tiebreaker in that case. Also puts us in the Wis, Maryland side of bracket instead of Purdue, Minnesota side. Since Wisky and Maryland have been a little sketchy lately, we might have a better chance of winning 2 or 3 in BTT.

Of course this assumes we get the job done against Rutgers (please o please don't lose that one).
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We're much more likely to see Minnesota than Maryland if we're a 7 seed. Almost no chance we see the Terps unless we make it to the semifinals.
 
#759      

FeelTheLovie

F
Louisville, KY
FeelTheLovie
Not in ANY way expecting it, but given our current confidence and swagger... What if we made it to/won a B1G title game? I'd give us an outside (AND I MEAN OUTSIDE) chance when considering MSU may have been playing some of the best basketball in the B1G coming into that game. Obviously it's a different story on a neutral court and everything, but I'll take our teams current state up against almost anyone in the conference right now.
 
#760      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Looking more at Syracuse, I'm finding their results a little lacking. 17 wins, but 15 of those are at home. They are 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome, beating only NC St (in OT) and Clemson (by 1 pt). They do have good wins over UVa, FSU and Duke, but also bad losses to St John's, UConn and a really bad BC team. RPI is 79! They're still definitely on the bubble and not in, but I just think people overreacted to that Duke win. Seems like a team that can't afford another loss.
 
#761      

VA Illini Chief

V
VA Illini Chief
I just got my tickets for all the games on Thursday! Very excited to be able to see them in person finally, happy about the tourney being in DC
 
#762      

Dirtbags32

D
Dirtbags32
We need to root for whatever seed gives us the best chance to win 2 games in the BTT. That would give us 20 wins and I think that gets us in. Anything more than that is gravy.
 
#763      

IlliniInTexas

I
IlliniInTexas
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Looking more at Syracuse, I'm finding their results a little lacking. 17 wins, but 15 of those are at home. They are 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome, beating only NC St (in OT) and Clemson (by 1 pt). They do have good wins over UVa, FSU and Duke, but also bad losses to St John's, UConn and a really bad BC team. RPI is 79! They're still definitely on the bubble and not in, but I just think people overreacted to that Duke win. Seems like a team that can't afford another loss.
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Interesting observation. The highest RPI of an at-large in NCAA tourney history is 67 in 2011 (74 pre 2005 formula change). Would test how much the committee values RPI over advanced metrics
 
#765      

Tygor

T
Tygor
Dirtbags32 said:
We need to root for whatever seed gives us the best chance to win 2 games in the BTT. That would give us 20 wins and I think that gets us in. Anything more than that is gravy.
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I think it still would depend on who it is, but any of the top 4 would likely be enough. The Thursday winner almost always gets a bump against the bye team on Friday (just played, used to the shooting background and the rims), so if we have ambition to win the whole thing, ask for Purdue on Friday as that's the best chance to knock them off. Of course we are asking for any win, so Minnesota is probably the best we could reasonably play and hope for (although I'm guessing it's Purdue or Wisconsin).

The tournament is going to be wild, and I'm guessing someone from the 5-12 seed pack is making a run to the finals. The only teams that I would be shocked to win 2 or 3 are Nebraska, Rutgers, and Penn State. Everyone else can beat anyone, just my opinion.
 
#768      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Forgive me for being out of the loop, but we're currently projected to play Iowa in the BTT, right? With how we're playing (if it continues is the big if ... we've been let down before :eek:), I honestly wouldn't be as nervous as I normally would be for the infamous third meeting when you're going for a season sweep. I'm no expert, but this is how I'd PERSONALLY feel on Selection Sunday with the following results:

Lose at RU and in BTT: 18-14 (8-10) ... obviously out
Win at RU but lose in BTT: 19-13 (9-9) ... almost certainly out but hoping for a miracle
Win at RU and win one in the BTT: 20-13 (9-9) ... cautiously optimistic, I say 60% in
Win at RU and win two in the BTT: 21-13 (9-9) ... I think we're a lock

Gonna be a wild ride to finish this one out, but only if we beat RU!
 
#769      

Illini1221

I
Peru,IL
Illini1221
WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
Looking more at Syracuse, I'm finding their results a little lacking. 17 wins, but 15 of those are at home. They are 2-10 away from the Carrier Dome, beating only NC St (in OT) and Clemson (by 1 pt). They do have good wins over UVa, FSU and Duke, but also bad losses to St John's, UConn and a really bad BC team. RPI is 79! They're still definitely on the bubble and not in, but I just think people overreacted to that Duke win. Seems like a team that can't afford another loss.
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I was looking at the same thing. I don't get all of the love they are getting over other bubble teams. They have a couple nice wins, but their bad losses to me outweigh their good wins. Nonetheless, I think the Georgia Tech-Cuse game is essentially an elimination game on Saturday.
 
#770      

Tygor

T
Tygor
With the NCAA bringing in Pomeroy and Sagaran to input into new metrics, I wonder if the committee will even use RPI much this season. Mostly speculation, but this is likely the last year RPI will be mentioned much. Kenpom usually hates Illinois, but there is a method to his madness and he's usually pretty close to correct in predicting games and ranking teams. There are a few outliers though, like Wichita State being ranked #10 but considered a bubble team by lots of people. That's a good team that should get in no matter what.
 
#771      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
Illini1221 said:
I was looking at the same thing. I don't get all of the love they are getting over other bubble teams. They have a couple nice wins, but their bad losses to me outweigh their good wins. Nonetheless, I think the Georgia Tech-Cuse game is essentially an elimination game on Saturday.
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GT is another one, only 2 wins away from home. That's always been something that's been talked about, i.e. "no home games in the post season" so I'd think that's a big black mark on both their resumes.

Tygor said:
With the NCAA bringing in Pomeroy and Sagaran to input into new metrics, I wonder if the committee will even use RPI much this season. Mostly speculation, but this is likely the last year RPI will be mentioned much. Kenpom usually hates Illinois, but there is a method to his madness and he's usually pretty close to correct in predicting games and ranking teams. There are a few outliers though, like Wichita State being ranked #10 but considered a bubble team by lots of people. That's a good team that should get in no matter what.
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We'll never really know but I think they'll continue to downplay RPI. But until they come up with an official stance or new metrics, hard to say how much any of these rankings are in play.
 
#772      

MadSeason

MadSeason
MadSeason
Tygor said:
With the NCAA bringing in Pomeroy and Sagaran to input into new metrics, I wonder if the committee will even use RPI much this season. Mostly speculation, but this is likely the last year RPI will be mentioned much. Kenpom usually hates Illinois, but there is a method to his madness and he's usually pretty close to correct in predicting games and ranking teams. There are a few outliers though, like Wichita State being ranked #10 but considered a bubble team by lots of people. That's a good team that should get in no matter what.
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I don't think new metrics are even being considered until next year at the earliest. which is why Illinois is still in this thing. If margin of loss were a factor we would be toast
 
#773      

JFkingbuckets

J
JFkingbuckets
Can anyone explain the logic of Illinois St. being in over us on a lot of brackets? They have literally played no one except Wichita St. who they split...I have to believe the committee won't put them in.
 
#774      

WesterveltVictoryCigar

WesterveltVictoryCigar
WesterveltVictoryCigar
JFkingbuckets said:
Can anyone explain the logic of Illinois St. being in over us on a lot of brackets? They have literally played no one except Wichita St. who they split...I have to believe the committee won't put them in.
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ISU is the #1 seed in the MVC tournament, so it could be they are in brackets as the de facto conference champ and not an at large team.
 
#775      

kbotc

K
Denver, CO
kbotc
Cheez said:
I'd be okay with salt Lake city.... I can drive there :)
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Currently working in Westminster, and yea. I'd really be OK with some Salt Lake City. I haven't seen the Illini all year.
 
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