DeonThomas
- South Carolina
A good start, BUT......................
Did you take into account games played/lost without "key players" on each team's roster? The Selection Committee adds this intricacy to their analysis of each team.
Bracketology
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Did you take into account games played/lost without "key players" on each team's roster? The Selection Committee adds this intricacy to their analysis of each team.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think if we lose to Michigan or Indiana (especially the latter), we are likely looking at a 4. However, if we make the BTT semifinals after winning the league and presumably being a 3-seed as we speak (we certainly have not done anything to "lose" that 3 since the Committee said we were one in February, IMO...), I cannot imagine we'd be a 4. I agree that an Illini team that is 25-9, likely top 10 in the NET and both regular season and BTT champions is getting a 2.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
25-8 (with three BTT wins)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
True, even better!
Our chance for a 3 seed or outside shot at a 2 seed would be greatly helped by Michigan finishing top 30 in NET to give us one more Q1 win (Northwestern winning a couple of games would help too if they can get top 75, but I'm less optimistic about that). If Michigan beats IN and then even loses to us, I think they still end up top 30- because #27, 28 and 29 are all Mountain West teams - they can't all win their conference tournament- they all have byes to the quarters, so the chances of at least one of them taking a bad loss or losing to each other are such that only 1 of them likely ends up in top 30 in NET
If we do play Rutgers in the semi's that won't even be a Q1 game for us - so it would be better for us to play Iowa for a third time, getting to 8-9 Q1 wins would certainly lock in a 3 seed and give us a shot at a 2 seed if we make the BTT finals and upsets happen to other teams in the 2 seed line right now
If we do play Rutgers in the semi's that won't even be a Q1 game for us - so it would be better for us to play Iowa for a third time, getting to 8-9 Q1 wins would certainly lock in a 3 seed and give us a shot at a 2 seed if we make the BTT finals and upsets happen to other teams in the 2 seed line right now
I really think that if we win 1 game in the BTT, we get a 3 seed.
I didn't, just a straight average of efficiency and results. I know the committee takes player absences into account generally, though I think it'll overall be difficult to do this particular year since so many players ended up missing games with injuries. Some teams with especially egregious injury losses could get a bit of a bump, though, which is what I said last night. I think Illinois is probably right on the 3/4 border right now, depending how much of a boost they get for losses without key players (particularly the Maryland loss)
What happens if we lose to Nebraska on Saturday?
Then Nebraska could steal an at large bid from some other team.
Sound argument, but I would caution that you're assuming the committee will be consistent.
I just hope the guys are playing better. They've had a great season, and they play really hard, but I think the constant roster issues from injuries and such have made it harder for the team to gel. I think this team at its best has really shared the ball and got everyone involved. If we get Jake back, that should help.
Well one good turn-deserves another I suppose?…they did us a solid so…
Yeah, nope…sorry Guv’na.
This must be what it is like amongst the ncaa committee members ... Look at Illinois' loss to Cincy because I'm a NET guy. But Illinois won the Big Ten conference. Hey, I'm an old school guy; look at their overall record ...I know everyone in Illini Nation is entirely focused on actually having a deep NCAA run this year (i.e., the focus on the BTT is significantly less than last season), but I think we can really improve our seed in the coming days. Here is our resume right now:
Record: 22-8
NET Ranking: #14
Quad 1 Wins: 6 (at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, at #31 MICH, at #40 MSU, at #44 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 6 (vs. #31 MICH, vs. #40 MSU, vs. #50 ND, vs. #71 KSU in KC, at #82 NU, at #107 MINN)
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road Record: 7-4
Neutral Record: 2-1
Things to Watch
- Michigan is ONE spot away from giving us yet another Quad 1 win (they need to be top 30. It would be really nice for them to beat Indiana and for us to smash Juwan one more time.
- RU is #76, and we need them to be 75 for our win at home vs. them to be Quad 2 and our loss in Jersey to be Quad 1. They play the winner of Iowa and Nebraska/Northwestern. We REALLY need them to win that game! It helps our resume, Iowa is likely to stay top 30 no matter what and personally I want no piece of playing Iowa for a third time...
- Cincinnati is clinging to life at #100, meaning our loss to them is still Quad 2 for the moment. At this point, I think we have the wins to offset that, but it would be nice to have zero Quad 3 losses.
- Most importantly ... it's only Quad 1/Quad 2 games from here on out no matter what! If we were to, say, beat #31 Michigan (Quad 1), beat #76 Rutgers (Quad 2) and then beat Wisconsin, Purdue or Ohio State (all Quad 1) in the championship game, we would have to SERIOUSLY be considered for a 2-seed in Chicago, no??
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Illinois is now the highest #4 seed in the bracket matrix after today's updates. Texas Tech is the team we need to pay attention to.
It would be a crime for the Mountain West to get 4 teams in tourney. Also WCC, Gonzaga and St. Marys I'm buying. A 3rd team from WCC no way! Having Villanova ahead of Providence, Nope and Auburn is a 1 seed easy.
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I would gladly take that bargain after what they did for us on Sunday.
But realistically, I can see us getting anywhere between a 2 and 5 seed. A very outside chance at a 2 if we win the Big 10 tournament, but most likely still a 3. A loss on Friday basically guarantees no better than a 4 seed, with a chance at a 5 depending on how things fall. Getting past Friday puts us at a solid 4, with a possibility of a 3.
Great post! I will be watching for Tennessee and Memphis in tourney. My goodness. Both teams Defense, size all over court, and man they Both Hit a TON of Free Throws. They don't miss!
I personally hope we get at least a 3 seed or anywhere in Chicago Region. This is why BTT is so important.....
With how terrible many of the major conferences are this year, there are extra bids to go around for the better mid-majors, and the WCC and MWC are even with the ACC this season, and ahead of the American. There are 4 tournament quality teams in the MWC, but the 4th (Wyoming) is borderline. As for the WCC, it's getting 3 teams in easy. BYU would be a long shot as a 4th, especially with how they finished.
As for Villanova, they're basically 2021 Illinois to Providence's 2021 Michigan. They finished 16-4 in conference and swept Providence, while Providence finished 14-3 and didn't make up their other 3 games. They're definitely ahead of Providence for now, and probably will stay above them unless Providence sweeps the BE tourney and beats Villanova handily during it.
Quick look at the other end of the bracket, the auto bids, otherwise known as "Who would Illinois play in the first round as a 3-4 seed?".
There are currently 19 conferences projected to not have an at-large quality team:, and assuming the worst (best team in each conference wins), here is the lineup:
- America East: Vermont
- ASUN: Jacksonville
- Big South: Longwood*
- Big Sky: Montana State
- Big West: UC Irvine
- CAA: UNC Wilmington
- Horizon: Wright State
- Ivy: Princeton
- MAC: Toledo
- MAAC: Iona
- MEAC: Norfolk State
- NEC: Wagner
- Southern: Chattanooga*
- Southland: Nicholls State
- Summit: South Dakota State
- Sun Belt: Georgia State*
- SWAC: Southern
- Patriot: Colgate
- WAC: New Mexico State
That comes out to the 4 play-in teams, two other 16 seeds, four 15 seeds, four 14 seeds, four 13 seeds and a 12 seed. Ranking them by average quality between efficiency and results, here's what we end up with:
Play-ins: Southern, Wright State, Nicholls State, Colgate
16 seeds: Jacksonville, Georgia State
15 seeds: UNC Wilmington, Norfolk State, UC Irvine, Montana State
14 seeds: Longwood, Wagner, Princeton, Iona
13 seeds: New Mexico State, Toledo, Chattanooga, Vermont
12 seed: South Dakota State
Now, that's only if the best teams all win, so if upsets happen the overall strength of the auto bids is lowered (so you'll get a worse team in a better seed), but assuming the worst, if Illinois goes to Milwaukee with a 3 or 4 seed, expect to see them matched up with a 13-14 seed that won't have to travel so far. Oddly enough all the 14 seeds are in NY/NJ/Virginia, so any of those could pop up, so Illinois could get matched up against the Iona fighting Pitinos, or the first time participant Longwood Lions.
If the Illini get a 4 seed, the quality of team will be undoubtedly better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get matched up against the MAC champ, whether it be Toledo, Ohio, or our old friend John Groce's Akron program.
There are currently 19 conferences projected to not have an at-large quality team:, and assuming the worst (best team in each conference wins), here is the lineup:
- America East: Vermont
- ASUN: Jacksonville
- Big South: Longwood*
- Big Sky: Montana State
- Big West: UC Irvine
- CAA: UNC Wilmington
- Horizon: Wright State
- Ivy: Princeton
- MAC: Toledo
- MAAC: Iona
- MEAC: Norfolk State
- NEC: Wagner
- Southern: Chattanooga*
- Southland: Nicholls State
- Summit: South Dakota State
- Sun Belt: Georgia State*
- SWAC: Southern
- Patriot: Colgate
- WAC: New Mexico State
That comes out to the 4 play-in teams, two other 16 seeds, four 15 seeds, four 14 seeds, four 13 seeds and a 12 seed. Ranking them by average quality between efficiency and results, here's what we end up with:
Play-ins: Southern, Wright State, Nicholls State, Colgate
16 seeds: Jacksonville, Georgia State
15 seeds: UNC Wilmington, Norfolk State, UC Irvine, Montana State
14 seeds: Longwood, Wagner, Princeton, Iona
13 seeds: New Mexico State, Toledo, Chattanooga, Vermont
12 seed: South Dakota State
Now, that's only if the best teams all win, so if upsets happen the overall strength of the auto bids is lowered (so you'll get a worse team in a better seed), but assuming the worst, if Illinois goes to Milwaukee with a 3 or 4 seed, expect to see them matched up with a 13-14 seed that won't have to travel so far. Oddly enough all the 14 seeds are in NY/NJ/Virginia, so any of those could pop up, so Illinois could get matched up against the Iona fighting Pitinos, or the first time participant Longwood Lions.
If the Illini get a 4 seed, the quality of team will be undoubtedly better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get matched up against the MAC champ, whether it be Toledo, Ohio, or our old friend John Groce's Akron program.
I just want to see us in Milwaukee in the 1st and 2nd round. All of this talk about Chicago, Philly, etc....let's just get out of the first weekend. Haven't done that for a bit.
Getting to Milwaukee would help that substantially.
Getting to Milwaukee would help that substantially.
As long as Illinois gets a top 4 seed (and aren't, like, the last of the 4 seeds), they'll get a Milwaukee (or Indy if things get really crazy this week) placement. Not enough other Midwest/Great Lakes teams of high enough quality to claim them otherwise.
Usually the West region pods are the ones left for the 4-5 seeds because of underrepresentation of west coast teams, but with Gonzaga, Arizona and UCLA around to take those, more close pods are available for the rest of the top 4 seeds.
I'm figuring that Wisconsin and Illinois being in Milwaukee with Purdue and Kentucky being in Indy is going to have the NCAA drooling. They'll have fully sold out seats for all sessions.
ILLINIShox24
Orange Krush '04 & '05
Percentage-wise, I think it will be something like
2 seed = 5%
3 seed = 25%
4 seed = 60%
5 seed = 10%
Would be great to get up to 3. Wherever we end up, I mostly just want to get to the second week.
2 seed = 5%
3 seed = 25%
4 seed = 60%
5 seed = 10%
Would be great to get up to 3. Wherever we end up, I mostly just want to get to the second week.
Is there any chance of Illinois going somewhere like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Fort Worth, etc.? Through the years can remember going to places like Austin, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Albany....does that not happen anymore? If you are a top four seed is there no chance Illinois would be anywhere other than Indy or Milwaukee? What if they are a five seed, wouldn't it be unfair to the four seed to have Illinois be closer to home?
If they're a 5 seed they won't get the option for region. It's the top 4 seeds that are placed in pods by seed order.
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