About 3 weeks ago, I did an exercise to estimate at-large bracket positions based on an average of teams' efficiency metrics (T-Rank) and result metrics (WAB). Seeing as it's now the end of the regular season, I thought it'd be interesting to do a refresher. Based solely on a straight average of positions of each metric, here is what the bracket would look like (auto bids *):
1 seeds: Baylor*, Arizona*, Auburn*, Kansas
2 seeds: Gonzaga*, Kentucky, Duke*, Houston*
3 seeds: Purdue*, Villanova*, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4 seeds: UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arkansas
5 seeds: St. Mary's, Texas, Iowa, Providence
6 seeds: Connecticut, LSU, Alabama, San Diego State*
7 seeds: San Francisco, Boise State, North Carolina, Murray State*
8 seeds: Colorado State, Ohio State, Memphis, Michigan State
9 seeds: Wake Forest, Loyola IL*, Michigan, Iowa State
10 seeds: USC, Seton Hall, TCU, Notre Dame
11 seeds: Indiana, Davidson, Oklahoma, SMU
12 seeds: Marquette, Miami FL, North Texas*
Last 4 in: VCU, Florida, Wyoming, Dayton
First 4 out: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Texas A&M
Next 4 out: BYU, Creighton, South Dakota St., St. Louis
Notes:
- Since this was a straight average, the difference in Gonzaga's efficiency compared to every other team is muted significantly. They'll be the #1 overall seed if they win their conference tournament, and a #1 seed lock regardless.
- Houston continues to have good efficiency despite close losses in almost all their good games. Considering the committee didn't have them as a top 4 seed two weeks ago, they've done nothing since to move up, so I expect them somewhere in the 5-6 range, moving everyone else up a spot to adjust.
- Rutgers and Virginia are weird cases. Both have subpar efficiency and results metrics, but each had a couple really good weeks in conference play with overall good conference records in two major conferences (though not the best major conference, that is the Big 12 easy). I don't have either of them anywhere near a bid, so I wouldn't be surprised if neither makes the field despite conference records in major conferences.
- Dayton getting in the first four and playing in Dayton would be funny to me, so I hope it happens.
- Illinois is right about where I expected them to be, borderline 3-4 seed about even with Texas Tech, UCLA and Wisconsin.
- Michigan State has taken a free fall, but is still safely in the bracket. Michigan is safer than I expected, and I think their game Thursday doesn't make or break their tournament hopes.
