Bracketology

ptgrd23 · Mar 7, 2022

CBS has us as #3 seed in MW with Auburn #1 Kansas #2 and Providence #4
Sporting News has us as #4
ESPN Lunardi has us #4 in East with Kansas #1, Kentucky #2, Villanova #3
Rotowire has us #4 in MW with Baylor #1 Wisconsin #2 Texas Tech #3
Yahoo Sports has us #3 seed with Baylor #1, Kentucky #2 and UCLA #4

I think if we win 2 games in BTT making to finals we can solidify our #3. If we can win BTT we could move up to #2 seed. Not sure there is that big a difference between being a #3 vs 14 or #2 vs. 15. The big advantage is to be the #1 seed

aaeismacgychel · Mar 8, 2022

While not necessarily bracketology, kenpom has been a very good predictor of success in the tourney. Since 2002, teams that are top 20 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency have won 17 of the last 19 tourneys. Teams that have one efficiency top 20 and the other top 35 have made up 33 of the 38 teams that have reached the championship game. Based on that criteria, here would be the teams currently projected to be favorites to win the tourney and make the championship game:

KenPom teams projected as favorites to win tourney (Top 20 OE and DE): Historically ~90% accurate
Gonzaga (OE:2, DE:6)
Arizona (OE:8, DE:14)
Baylor (OE:9, DE:15)
Houston (OE:14, DE:13)
UCLA (OE:15, DE: 11)

Other KenPom teams projected as favorites to make the title game (Top 20 OE and Top 35 DE, or vice versa): Combined with prior group, historically~87% accurate
Kentucky (OE:3, DE:25)
Duke (OE:5, DE:27)
Auburn (OE:22, DE:8)
Kansas (OE:7, DE:32)
Villanova (OE:6, DE:33)
Texas (OE:32, DE:12)
Illinois (OE:20, DE:29)

So as of right now, Kenpom's metrics show us as 1 of 12 teams projected to be serious contenders to make a Title run. Win the BTT, get on the 3 line (or maybe 2) and then keep it rolling.

Piotyr · Mar 8, 2022

aaeismacgychel said:
While not necessarily bracketology, kenpom has been a very good predictor of success in the tourney. Since 2002, teams that are top 20 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency have won 17 of the last 19 tourneys. Teams that have one efficiency top 20 and the other top 35 have made up 33 of the 38 teams that have reached the championship game. Based on that criteria, here would be the teams currently projected to be favorites to win the tourney and make the championship game:

KenPom teams projected as favorites to win tourney (Top 20 OE and DE): Historically ~90% accurate
Gonzaga (OE:2, DE:6)
Arizona (OE:8, DE:14)
Baylor (OE:9, DE:15)
Houston (OE:14, DE:13)
UCLA (OE:15, DE: 11)

Other KenPom teams projected as favorites to make the title game (Top 20 OE and Top 35 DE, or vice versa): Combined with prior group, historically~87% accurate
Kentucky (OE:3, DE:25)
Duke (OE:5, DE:27)
Auburn (OE:22, DE:8)
Kansas (OE:7, DE:32)
Villanova (OE:6, DE:33)
Texas (OE:32, DE:12)
Illinois (OE:20, DE:29)

So as of right now, Kenpom's metrics show us as 1 of 12 teams projected to be serious contenders to make a Title run. Win the BTT, get on the 3 line (or maybe 2) and then keep it rolling.

Yeah, that's my primary concern about B1G teams as title contenders this season. Going team by team:

Purdue - defensive problems
Ohio State - worse defensive problem than Purdue
Iowa - Only started played good defense lately, haven't been able to get a good win (best win is at Michigan)
MSU - Terrible of late, mediocre both offensively and defensively
Wisconsin - Too dependent on one player and beneficial foul calls, unsustainable record in close games (see loss to Nebraska)
Michigan - Effectively a .500 team, don't see them winning 6 straight
Illinois - Can't stay healthy, suspect non-conference results
Indiana - Terrible offense
Rutgers - Won't get to play at the RAC, and numbers outside there are awful overall

RabidDawgClassic · Mar 8, 2022

Flyin' Illini said:
I would gladly take that bargain after what they did for us on Sunday.

But realistically, I can see us getting anywhere between a 2 and 5 seed. A very outside chance at a 2 if we win the Big 10 tournament, but most likely still a 3. A loss on Friday basically guarantees no better than a 4 seed, with a chance at a 5 depending on how things fall. Getting past Friday puts us at a solid 4, with a possibility of a 3.

When are people going to learn that the BTT championship game has zero bearing on NCAA tournament seeding? The bracket is locked and loaded and ready for broadcast long before the BTT championship game is even tipped off, with the only contingency bracket set aside in case a team like Nebraska or Minnesota has a chance to crash the party. Committee members have admitted as much and there’s no indication that will change this year.

So… if we want a 2 seed, we have to keep winning AND hope there’s major turmoil from the teams ahead of us in the early rounds of their respective tournaments.

HailChief89 · Mar 8, 2022

Piotyr said:
With how terrible many of the major conferences are this year, there are extra bids to go around for the better mid-majors, and the WCC and MWC are even with the ACC this season, and ahead of the American. There are 4 tournament quality teams in the MWC, but the 4th (Wyoming) is borderline. As for the WCC, it's getting 3 teams in easy. BYU would be a long shot as a 4th, especially with how they finished.

As for Villanova, they're basically 2021 Illinois to Providence's 2021 Michigan. They finished 16-4 in conference and swept Providence, while Providence finished 14-3 and didn't make up their other 3 games. They're definitely ahead of Providence for now, and probably will stay above them unless Providence sweeps the BE tourney and beats Villanova handily during it.

Very good points!

LouHenson · Mar 8, 2022

RabidDawgClassic said:
When are people going to learn that the BTT championship game has zero bearing on NCAA tournament seeding? The bracket is locked and loaded and ready for broadcast long before the BTT championship game is even tipped off, with the only contingency bracket set aside in case a team like Nebraska or Minnesota has a chance to crash the party. Committee members have admitted as much and there’s no indication that will change this year.

So… if we want a 2 seed, we have to keep winning AND hope there’s major turmoil from the teams ahead of us in the early rounds of their respective tournaments.

I think this is pretty much a true statement with one exception. Let’s say we were to play Wisconsin/Purdue in the championship of the BTT they could have a 2 seed saved for the winner and a 3 seed saved for the loser. The Net and all the metrics have all three teams close, so we could be in a situation I laid out above.

SampsonRelpenk · Mar 8, 2022

Slightly off-topic but I'm currently doing what I do every year at this time: trawling Youtube for classic Illini tournament games. Like always, I'm astounded I can't find one of my all-time favorites, which is the curb-stomping we gave Cincinnati in 2004. These articles about the game are a decent consolation prize however:

Chicago Tribune: Bearcats start the talking, do the gawking
NY Times: In Illini's Easy Victory, Cincinnati Is All Talk

mydosburns · Mar 8, 2022

aaeismacgychel said:
While not necessarily bracketology, kenpom has been a very good predictor of success in the tourney. Since 2002, teams that are top 20 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency have won 17 of the last 19 tourneys. Teams that have one efficiency top 20 and the other top 35 have made up 33 of the 38 teams that have reached the championship game. Based on that criteria, here would be the teams currently projected to be favorites to win the tourney and make the championship game:

KenPom teams projected as favorites to win tourney (Top 20 OE and DE): Historically ~90% accurate
Gonzaga (OE:2, DE:6)
Arizona (OE:8, DE:14)
Baylor (OE:9, DE:15)
Houston (OE:14, DE:13)
UCLA (OE:15, DE: 11)

Other KenPom teams projected as favorites to make the title game (Top 20 OE and Top 35 DE, or vice versa): Combined with prior group, historically~87% accurate
Kentucky (OE:3, DE:25)
Duke (OE:5, DE:27)
Auburn (OE:22, DE:8)
Kansas (OE:7, DE:32)
Villanova (OE:6, DE:33)
Texas (OE:32, DE:12)
Illinois (OE:20, DE:29)

So as of right now, Kenpom's metrics show us as 1 of 12 teams projected to be serious contenders to make a Title run. Win the BTT, get on the 3 line (or maybe 2) and then keep it rolling.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but these are end of year numbers right? If so, aren't these a little skewed based on the fact how the team performs in the tournament?

Bleedorangeandblue44 · Mar 8, 2022

SampsonRelpenk said:
Slightly off-topic but I'm currently doing what I do every year at this time: trawling Youtube for classic Illini tournament games. Like always, I'm astounded I can't find one of my all-time favorites, which is the curb-stomping we gave Cincinnati in 2004. These articles about the game are a decent consolation prize however:

Chicago Tribune: Bearcats start the talking, do the gawking
NY Times: In Illini's Easy Victory, Cincinnati Is All Talk

If I remember right, that was the first time Illinois ever won as an "upset" in the tournament. A small one at that as a 5 seed over a 4, but after all the losses in the 80s as the better seed, sometimes a much, much higher seed, it was great to finally be on the other end. And I think the only other one we've ever had was the last NCAA win for Weber and another minor upset as a 9 beating 8 UNLV before losing to no. 1 Kansas.

If we do go in as a 4 or 5 seed this year, we would be long overdue to win over a 1 seed in the sweet 16 or something.

WhiteHorseWings · Mar 8, 2022

RabidDawgClassic said:
When are people going to learn that the BTT championship game has zero bearing on NCAA tournament seeding? The bracket is locked and loaded and ready for broadcast long before the BTT championship game is even tipped off, with the only contingency bracket set aside in case a team like Nebraska or Minnesota has a chance to crash the party. Committee members have admitted as much and there’s no indication that will change this year.

So… if we want a 2 seed, we have to keep winning AND hope there’s major turmoil from the teams ahead of us in the early rounds of their respective tournaments.

When you talk down to them less while telling them

Rocky · Mar 8, 2022

Piotyr said:
Yeah, that's my primary concern about B1G teams as title contenders this season. Going team by team:

Purdue - defensive problems
Ohio State - worse defensive problem than Purdue
Iowa - Only started played good defense lately, haven't been able to get a good win (best win is at Michigan)
MSU - Terrible of late, mediocre both offensively and defensively
Wisconsin - Too dependent on one player and beneficial foul calls, unsustainable record in close games (see loss to Nebraska)
Michigan - Effectively a .500 team, don't see them winning 6 straight
Illinois - Can't stay healthy, suspect non-conference results
Indiana - Terrible offense
Rutgers - Won't get to play at the RAC, and numbers outside there are awful overall

Overall, pretty accurate. Will say WI 15-2 in close games is pretty good. Great resume. And they likely will play first two rounds in Milwaukee. Also, Iowa usually wins the games they should. Last possession losses at Rutgers and Penn State were tough ones with very ? referee endings. That gets both teams a pretty good shot at sweet 16 runs, albeit WI more so than Iowa.

But as far as title contenders, yep ... tough road for all B1G teams, as you stated. However, when you look at college basketball Div 1 as a whole, there is incredible parity.

Flyin' Illini · Mar 8, 2022

SampsonRelpenk said:
Slightly off-topic but I'm currently doing what I do every year at this time: trawling Youtube for classic Illini tournament games.

I was going through some old boxes in my parents' basement a few weeks ago and came across a VHS recording of the 1989 Elite 8 game against Syracuse! I have no idea if that full game is available on video anywhere else, but if not I need to get it digitized.

Rocky · Mar 8, 2022

ptgrd23 said:
CBS has us as #3 seed in MW with Auburn #1 Kansas #2 and Providence #4
Sporting News has us as #4
ESPN Lunardi has us #4 in East with Kansas #1, Kentucky #2, Villanova #3
Rotowire has us #4 in MW with Baylor #1 Wisconsin #2 Texas Tech #3
Yahoo Sports has us #3 seed with Baylor #1, Kentucky #2 and UCLA #4

I think if we win 2 games in BTT making to finals we can solidify our #3. If we can win BTT we could move up to #2 seed. Not sure there is that big a difference between being a #3 vs 14 or #2 vs. 15. The big advantage is to be the #1 seed

CBS is interesting. Jerry Palm has BYU as in. Last year they were one of the factors (because they cannot play Sunday games per university rules) that ended up pitting UCLA and USC against each other in the Sweet 16 ... violating a usual (but not hardfast) rule of conference teams not potentially meeting until at least the elite 8.

This year, with BYU in a different regional and not available for potential blame, Jerry Palm still has Illinois and Iowa potentially meeting in the sweet 16.

MDchicago · Mar 8, 2022

aaeismacgychel said:
While not necessarily bracketology, kenpom has been a very good predictor of success in the tourney. Since 2002, teams that are top 20 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency have won 17 of the last 19 tourneys. Teams that have one efficiency top 20 and the other top 35 have made up 33 of the 38 teams that have reached the championship game. Based on that criteria, here would be the teams currently projected to be favorites to win the tourney and make the championship game:

KenPom teams projected as favorites to win tourney (Top 20 OE and DE): Historically ~90% accurate
Gonzaga (OE:2, DE:6)
Arizona (OE:8, DE:14)
Baylor (OE:9, DE:15)
Houston (OE:14, DE:13)
UCLA (OE:15, DE: 11)

Other KenPom teams projected as favorites to make the title game (Top 20 OE and Top 35 DE, or vice versa): Combined with prior group, historically~87% accurate
Kentucky (OE:3, DE:25)
Duke (OE:5, DE:27)
Auburn (OE:22, DE:8)
Kansas (OE:7, DE:32)
Villanova (OE:6, DE:33)
Texas (OE:32, DE:12)
Illinois (OE:20, DE:29)

So as of right now, Kenpom's metrics show us as 1 of 12 teams projected to be serious contenders to make a Title run. Win the BTT, get on the 3 line (or maybe 2) and then keep it rolling.

A few other KenPom data points to add to the mix:

NCAA Champion.
- The NCAA tournament champion has been one of KenPom's top 3 teams in adjusted efficiency margin in 16 of the 19 tournaments held since 2002, and the season leader in adjEM has won 10 of the 19 tournaments.
- The top 3 teams in adjEM this season (to date) are Gonzaga (32.65), Arizona (27.45) and Kentucky (27.32). (AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, and represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions).
- The average NCAA champion since 2002 had an adjEM of 30.45.
- Every champion since 2002 has had an adjEM above 28.2 except for 3 outliers (2014 UConn (22.13); 2003 Syracuse (23.38); and 2011 UConn (23.93).
- Fortuitous timing helps: Of the 21 years of date KenPom has published since 2002, 11 years had a single team in the field with an adjEM >32, 6 years had no teams with a 32 rating or better, and 4 years had more than one great team with a rating over 32.0 (including, sadly, 2005). The best years for a potential darkhorse champion (including all 3 of the outliers noted above) are years with no teams above 32 or a single team above 32 that is upset in the tournament.

Lowest Rated Final Four Team
- The average adjEM of the lowest rated Final 4 team each year since 2002 is 21.96, and in 15 of 19 years the adjEM of the lowest Final Four team was above 20.1. (The four outliers were 2010 VCU (13.49); 2018 Loyola (16.39); 2006 George Mason (18.16); and 2016 Syracuse (18.57).

Illini adjEM season to date is 19.91.

21ChampaignSt · Mar 8, 2022

MDchicago said:
A few other KenPom data points to add to the mix:

NCAA Champion.
- The NCAA tournament champion has been one of KenPom's top 3 teams in adjusted efficiency margin in 16 of the 19 tournaments held since 2002, and the season leader in adjEM has won 10 of the 19 tournaments.
- The top 3 teams in adjEM this season (to date) are Gonzaga (32.65), Arizona (27.45) and Kentucky (27.32). (AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, and represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions).
- The average NCAA champion since 2002 had an adjEM of 30.45.
- Every champion since 2002 has had an adjEM above 28.2 except for 3 outliers (2014 UConn (22.13); 2003 Syracuse (23.38); and 2011 UConn (23.93).
- Fortuitous timing helps: Of the 21 years of date KenPom has published since 2002, 11 years had a single team in the field with an adjEM >32, 6 years had no teams with a 32 rating or better, and 4 years had more than one great team with a rating over 32.0 (including, sadly, 2005). The best years for a potential darkhorse champion (including all 3 of the outliers noted above) are years with no teams above 32 or a single team above 32 that is upset in the tournament.

Lowest Rated Final Four Team
- The average adjEM of the lowest rated Final 4 team each year since 2002 is 21.96, and in 15 of 19 years the adjEM of the lowest Final Four team was above 20.1. (The four outliers were 2010 VCU (13.49); 2018 Loyola (16.39); 2006 George Mason (18.16); and 2016 Syracuse (18.57).

Illini adjEM season to date is 19.91.

Thank you for sharing this. We are in "trendy dark house" territory. But with Gonzaga the only team barely above 32, I think we're primed for an underdog winner this year.

GrayGhost77 · Mar 8, 2022

MDchicago said:
A few other KenPom data points to add to the mix:

NCAA Champion.
- The NCAA tournament champion has been one of KenPom's top 3 teams in adjusted efficiency margin in 16 of the 19 tournaments held since 2002, and the season leader in adjEM has won 10 of the 19 tournaments.
- The top 3 teams in adjEM this season (to date) are Gonzaga (32.65), Arizona (27.45) and Kentucky (27.32). (AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, and represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions).
- The average NCAA champion since 2002 had an adjEM of 30.45.
- Every champion since 2002 has had an adjEM above 28.2 except for 3 outliers (2014 UConn (22.13); 2003 Syracuse (23.38); and 2011 UConn (23.93).
- Fortuitous timing helps: Of the 21 years of date KenPom has published since 2002, 11 years had a single team in the field with an adjEM >32, 6 years had no teams with a 32 rating or better, and 4 years had more than one great team with a rating over 32.0 (including, sadly, 2005). The best years for a potential darkhorse champion (including all 3 of the outliers noted above) are years with no teams above 32 or a single team above 32 that is upset in the tournament.

Lowest Rated Final Four Team
- The average adjEM of the lowest rated Final 4 team each year since 2002 is 21.96, and in 15 of 19 years the adjEM of the lowest Final Four team was above 20.1. (The four outliers were 2010 VCU (13.49); 2018 Loyola (16.39); 2006 George Mason (18.16); and 2016 Syracuse (18.57).

Illini adjEM season to date is 19.91.

Thanks for that harsh dose of reality. So really our projected ceiling is probably Elite 8. Honestly I'll be happy with Sweet 16, as we haven't been there in quite a long time.

CubsIlliniFan · Mar 8, 2022

Rocky said:
CBS is interesting. Jerry Palm has BYU as in. Last year they were one of the factors (because they cannot play Sunday games per university rules) that ended up pitting UCLA and USC against each other in the Sweet 16 ... violating a usual (but not hardfast) rule of conference teams not potentially meeting until at least the elite 8.

This year, with BYU in a different regional and not available for potential blame, Jerry Palm still has Illinois and Iowa potentially meeting in the sweet 16.

The rules have changed as conferences like the SEC, ACC and B1G grew to 14-16 teams, these conferences have put more than 9 or more teams in the tourney

Rocky · Mar 8, 2022

CubsIlliniFan said:
The rules have changed as conferences like the SEC, ACC and B1G grew to 14-16 teams, these conferences have put more than 9 or more teams in the tourney

That is true. But only 8 teams likely to make it from B1G this year (Palm has IU out).

And last year, while 9 teams made it from B1G ( and a potential sweet 16 matchup was unavoidable), only 5 teams from PAC-12 made it, and a potential sweet 16 matchup was avoidable (but happened anyway).

MDchicago · Mar 8, 2022

GrayGhost77 said:
Thanks for that harsh dose of reality. So really our projected ceiling is probably Elite 8. Honestly I'll be happy with Sweet 16, as we haven't been there in quite a long time.

Wasn't trying for harsh, but take the point! I have a similar take regarding reasonable expectations/how to define success (second weekend).

Our season to date adjEM rating probably doesn't reflect our true ceiling (given all of our injuries, ongoing reintegration of key pieces, late season breakout by Coleman, etc.), so that gives some room to dream/hope everything clicks for us and we catch some significant breaks, but recognize there is a sizable gap to close relative to historical norms for Final 4 and beyond teams.

socalini · Mar 8, 2022

Flyin' Illini said:
I was going through some old boxes in my parents' basement a few weeks ago and came across a VHS recording of the 1989 Elite 8 game against Syracuse! I have no idea if that full game is available on video anywhere else, but if not I need to get it digitized.

Is that the game where Kendall Gill was talking about his bloody lip in the post game interview? I've been looking for that clip forever. I'd love to see that interview again for the first time in 33 years.

Calvin · Mar 8, 2022

21ChampaignSt said:
Thank you for sharing this. We are in "trendy dark house" territory. But with Gonzaga the only team barely above 32, I think we're primed for an underdog winner this year.

Gozaga should be a heavy favorite. They'll be the #1 overall seed, have a very experienced roster from last year's run, and IMO don't have many teams that match-up well with them.

CubsIlliniFan · Mar 8, 2022

Rocky said:
That is true. But only 8 teams likely to make it from B1G this year (Palm has IU out).

And last year, while 9 teams made it from B1G ( and a potential sweet 16 matchup was unavoidable), only 5 teams from PAC-12 made it, and a potential sweet 16 matchup was avoidable (but happened anyway).

I remember the PAC12 having that issue last year

21ChampaignSt · Mar 8, 2022

Calvin said:
Gozaga should be a heavy favorite. They'll be the #1 overall seed, have a very experienced roster from last year's run, and IMO don't have many teams that match-up well with them.

They will be the odds on favorites, yes. But I will always discount Gonzaga in the tournament until I see them win one. Which they will eventually.
Is this a logical take? No. Which is why I feel comfortable posting it here.

Get yourself a new map · Mar 8, 2022

SampsonRelpenk said:
Slightly off-topic but I'm currently doing what I do every year at this time: trawling Youtube for classic Illini tournament games. Like always, I'm astounded I can't find one of my all-time favorites, which is the curb-stomping we gave Cincinnati in 2004. These articles about the game are a decent consolation prize however:

Chicago Tribune: Bearcats start the talking, do the gawking
NY Times: In Illini's Easy Victory, Cincinnati Is All Talk

I think I have a digital copy of this game on an old hard drive...

Flyin' Illini · Mar 8, 2022

socalini said:
Is that the game where Kendall Gill was talking about his bloody lip in the post game interview? I've been looking for that clip forever. I'd love to see that interview again for the first time in 33 years.

I have no idea. I need to pull my VCR down from the attic and see if it still works, and find out how much of the game got recorded. I'm not sure when I'll get around to that, but I'll let you know if/when I find it.