Bracketology

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#3      
Bigtex
Lots of loses in the AP top 25
interesting Gonzaga and St Mary's zero games
4 Duke Lost at home
6 Kansas lost at TCU
8 Purdue lost at Wisconsin
9 Providence lost at Villanova
10 Wisconsin lost vs Nebraska
12 Texas Tech lost at Ok. St
T14 Arkansas lost at Tenn
T14 Houston lost at Memphis
16 UCS lost vs Arizona Lost at UCLA
18 Uconn lost at Creighton
21 Texas Lost at Baylor Lost at Kansas
23 Ohio St lost vs Nebraska lost vs Michigan
24 Iowa lost at B1G champs
25 Alabama lost vs Texas AM lost at LSU

Keep winning/moving up for top 1, 2 or 3 seed.
 
#8      
turnaround3
Huge disparity between Palm and Lunardi for us as of this morning. Dream versus nightmare really.

Lunardi has us on the front half of the 4 line at #14 overall, out east in Philly, drawing 1 seed Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen and if we managed to swing that upset, we're handed either Kentucky or Nova (again, *in* Philly) to try and reach the Final Four.

Meanwhile Palm has us all the way on the front of the 3 line already, #10 overall, in the Chicago regional ironically drawing that same Kansas team in the Sweet Sixteen (2v3 instead of Lunardi's 1v4); imagine the Chicago Illini crowd getting a second weekend game for the first time in 17 years and oh here's Bill Self. Then they'd get either the weakest #1 IMO in Auburn, or the weakest #4 IMO Providence to reach New Orleans.

Obviously this'll all get shuffled ten times over between now and 5 PM Sunday but it's fun to dream.
 
#9      
CubsIlliniFan
Lots of games left over the country before we get to Sunday. We will not go any lower than a 4 seed. We can get to a 2 seed if we win the BTT. Houston will not win their conference tourney, either if anyone but Providence or Nova winning the BE tourney will have us higher in the seeding. The obvious 1’s are Gonzaga and Zona. The other 1 seeds will consist of either KU, UK, Baylor and Auburn. Unless Tech wins the Big 12, they will be a 3 Seed. Nova and Prov will be 3/4 depending on who wins the BE Tourney. If Duke loses early in the ACC, you could see them a 3/4 seed. UCLA will be a 4 as well as Arkansas a 4. Wisky, PU and us will be 2/3 line unless someone gets beat in the quarters and will fall to a 4 seed. Lots to play for. One game at a time. We will get 4 days of rest before Friday. I do not like the 11 O’clock starting time but we will get the most rest in between games. Lets hope that the 4/5 game goes three Overtimes and we get a very tired team on Saturday.
 
#10      
The Galloping Ghost
lstewart53x3 said:
I don’t think we need that much for a 3.

We were a 3 in the committees mock bracket and we’ve gone 4-1 since, with our only loss being a Q1.

Might need to win the 1st game in the BTT to lock in a 3, but I imagine that’s about it.
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So in theory, I totally get your logic. Unfortunately, though, our resume is a little weaker than it was when the committee released their mock bracket. Since then, we've lost, I believe, 2 Q1 wins (at NW and home to MSU) and 1 Q2 (home to NW) due to changes in rankings in the NET. We're also extremely close to a Q3 loss as Cincy is right on the border at 100 (we really need them to win a game in their conference tourney to ensure they don't drop to 101).

While we've done a good job taking care of business to close out the season, some on our schedule haven't done us any favors. I think it's really hard to say whether we're a 3 or a 4 right now. It'd be best to make a run to the tournament final to lock up our chances at a higher seed.
 
#11      
727ill
The Galloping Ghost said:
So in theory, I totally get your logic. Unfortunately, though, our resume is a little weaker than it was when the committee released their mock bracket. Since then, we've lost, I believe, 2 Q1 wins (at NW and home to MSU) and 1 Q2 (home to NW) due to changes in rankings in the NET. We're also extremely close to a Q3 loss as Cincy is right on the border at 100 (we really need them to win a game in their conference tourney to ensure they don't drop to 101).

While we've done a good job taking care of business to close out the season, some on our schedule haven't done us any favors. I think it's really hard to say whether we're a 3 or a 4 right now. It'd be best to make a run to the tournament final to lock up our chances at a higher seed.
Click to expand...

Don't sweat about quadrant churn this late in the season. The committee is going to look at the Cincy loss the same regardless of whether its Q2 or Q3.

At this point our resume is what it is and nothing is going to improve it much unless we win the B10 tourney.
 
#12      
lstewart53x3
The Galloping Ghost said:
So in theory, I totally get your logic. Unfortunately, though, our resume is a little weaker than it was when the committee released their mock bracket. Since then, we've lost, I believe, 2 Q1 wins (at NW and home to MSU) and 1 Q2 (home to NW) due to changes in rankings in the NET. We're also extremely close to a Q3 loss as Cincy is right on the border at 100 (we really need them to win a game in their conference tourney to ensure they don't drop to 101).

While we've done a good job taking care of business to close out the season, some on our schedule haven't done us any favors. I think it's really hard to say whether we're a 3 or a 4 right now. It'd be best to make a run to the tournament final to lock up our chances at a higher seed.
Click to expand...

From what I understand about the committee is that the quadrant system isn’t quite that black and white.

The committee looks at each individual win & loss and a team one spot outside of Q1 is nearly as valuable as a Q1 win.

Even Q1 wins aren’t created equal. A top 10 NET win is more valuable than a bottom of the quadrant Q1 win, even though they’re both Q1.
 
#13      
eas23
Always good to remember this time of year that this week is not play-in games for bubble teams and the results don't necessarily dictate seeding for at large teams. They're still just individual data points in a larger body of work.
 
#14      
Fighter of the Nightman
I know everyone in Illini Nation is entirely focused on actually having a deep NCAA run this year (i.e., the focus on the BTT is significantly less than last season), but I think we can really improve our seed in the coming days. Here is our resume right now:

Record: 22-8
NET Ranking: #14
Quad 1 Wins: 6 (at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, at #31 MICH, at #40 MSU, at #44 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 6 (vs. #31 MICH, vs. #40 MSU, vs. #50 ND, vs. #71 KSU in KC, at #82 NU, at #107 MINN)
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road Record: 7-4
Neutral Record: 2-1

Things to Watch
- Michigan is ONE spot away from giving us yet another Quad 1 win (they need to be top 30. It would be really nice for them to beat Indiana and for us to smash Juwan one more time. :)
- RU is #76, and we need them to be 75 for our win at home vs. them to be Quad 2 and our loss in Jersey to be Quad 1. They play the winner of Iowa and Nebraska/Northwestern. We REALLY need them to win that game! It helps our resume, Iowa is likely to stay top 30 no matter what and personally I want no piece of playing Iowa for a third time...
- Cincinnati is clinging to life at #100, meaning our loss to them is still Quad 2 for the moment. At this point, I think we have the wins to offset that, but it would be nice to have zero Quad 3 losses.
- Most importantly ... it's only Quad 1/Quad 2 games from here on out no matter what! If we were to, say, beat #31 Michigan (Quad 1), beat #76 Rutgers (Quad 2) and then beat Wisconsin, Purdue or Ohio State (all Quad 1) in the championship game, we would have to SERIOUSLY be considered for a 2-seed in Chicago, no??
 
#15      
WhiteHorseWings
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I know everyone in Illini Nation is entirely focused on actually having a deep NCAA run this year (i.e., the focus on the BTT is significantly less than last season), but I think we can really improve our seed in the coming days. Here is our resume right now:

Record: 22-8
NET Ranking: #14
Quad 1 Wins: 6 (at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, at #31 MICH, at #40 MSU, at #44 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 6 (vs. #31 MICH, vs. #40 MSU, vs. #50 ND, vs. #71 KSU in KC, at #82 NU, at #107 MINN)
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road Record: 7-4
Neutral Record: 2-1

Things to Watch
- Michigan is ONE spot away from giving us yet another Quad 1 win (they need to be top 30. It would be really nice for them to beat Indiana and for us to smash Juwan one more time. :)
- RU is #76, and we need them to be 75 for our win at home vs. them to be Quad 2 and our loss in Jersey to be Quad 1. They play the winner of Iowa and Nebraska/Northwestern. We REALLY need them to win that game! It helps our resume, Iowa is likely to stay top 30 no matter what and personally I want no piece of playing Iowa for a third time...
- Cincinnati is clinging to life at #100, meaning our loss to them is still Quad 2 for the moment. At this point, I think we have the wins to offset that, but it would be nice to have zero Quad 3 losses.
- Most importantly ... it's only Quad 1/Quad 2 games from here on out no matter what! If we were to, say, beat #31 Michigan (Quad 1), beat #76 Rutgers (Quad 2) and then beat Wisconsin, Purdue or Ohio State (all Quad 1) in the championship game, we would have to SERIOUSLY be considered for a 2-seed in Chicago, no??
Click to expand...
Great analysis. But with Mich and RU so close and needing to win to inch up, does following that with a loss to the Illini just move them right back down and moot the increase?
 
#18      
Piotyr
About 3 weeks ago, I did an exercise to estimate at-large bracket positions based on an average of teams' efficiency metrics (T-Rank) and result metrics (WAB). Seeing as it's now the end of the regular season, I thought it'd be interesting to do a refresher. Based solely on a straight average of positions of each metric, here is what the bracket would look like (auto bids *):

1 seeds: Baylor*, Arizona*, Auburn*, Kansas
2 seeds: Gonzaga*, Kentucky, Duke*, Houston*
3 seeds: Purdue*, Villanova*, Tennessee, Texas Tech
4 seeds: UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arkansas
5 seeds: St. Mary's, Texas, Iowa, Providence
6 seeds: Connecticut, LSU, Alabama, San Diego State*
7 seeds: San Francisco, Boise State, North Carolina, Murray State*
8 seeds: Colorado State, Ohio State, Memphis, Michigan State
9 seeds: Wake Forest, Loyola IL*, Michigan, Iowa State
10 seeds: USC, Seton Hall, TCU, Notre Dame
11 seeds: Indiana, Davidson, Oklahoma, SMU
12 seeds: Marquette, Miami FL, North Texas*
Last 4 in: VCU, Florida, Wyoming, Dayton
First 4 out: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Texas A&M
Next 4 out: BYU, Creighton, South Dakota St., St. Louis

Notes:
- Since this was a straight average, the difference in Gonzaga's efficiency compared to every other team is muted significantly. They'll be the #1 overall seed if they win their conference tournament, and a #1 seed lock regardless.
- Houston continues to have good efficiency despite close losses in almost all their good games. Considering the committee didn't have them as a top 4 seed two weeks ago, they've done nothing since to move up, so I expect them somewhere in the 5-6 range, moving everyone else up a spot to adjust.
- Rutgers and Virginia are weird cases. Both have subpar efficiency and results metrics, but each had a couple really good weeks in conference play with overall good conference records in two major conferences (though not the best major conference, that is the Big 12 easy). I don't have either of them anywhere near a bid, so I wouldn't be surprised if neither makes the field despite conference records in major conferences.
- Dayton getting in the first four and playing in Dayton would be funny to me, so I hope it happens.
- Illinois is right about where I expected them to be, borderline 3-4 seed about even with Texas Tech, UCLA and Wisconsin.
- Michigan State has taken a free fall, but is still safely in the bracket. Michigan is safer than I expected, and I think their game Thursday doesn't make or break their tournament hopes.
 
#20      
ChiefIllinois
I think we'd need a minimum of a btt championship appearance to get onto the 3 line. Purdue/wisc/houston/tenn getting upset early in the conf tourneys would be massive for us.
 
#21      
Fighter of the Nightman
ChiefIllinois said:
I think we'd need a minimum of a btt championship appearance to get onto the 3 line. Purdue/wisc/houston/tenn getting upset early in the conf tourneys would be massive for us.
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I honestly think if Wisconsin loses their first BTT game (looking entirely possible...), we are close to passing them. They're only two games better than us, and our NET is significantly better. If we make it to the BTT finals, it will likely be because we add enough Quad 1/Quad 2 wins to tie them in that category, and they were being floated as a 2-seed before a HORRIBLE (resume-wise) loss to Nebraska at home - a loss that is magnitudes worse than anything on our resume.

I also really do think the Committee prides itself on retaining a "human element," and if we are in the BTT final as co-champions while they flame out and we handily beat them in our one meeting, I don't think these facts will be entirely lost on them. JMO.
 
#22      
jrichisamazing
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I know everyone in Illini Nation is entirely focused on actually having a deep NCAA run this year (i.e., the focus on the BTT is significantly less than last season), but I think we can really improve our seed in the coming days. Here is our resume right now:

Record: 22-8
NET Ranking: #14
Quad 1 Wins: 6 (at #15 IOWA, vs. #15 IOWA, vs. #21 WISC, at #31 MICH, at #40 MSU, at #44 IND)
Quad 2 Wins: 6 (vs. #31 MICH, vs. #40 MSU, vs. #50 ND, vs. #71 KSU in KC, at #82 NU, at #107 MINN)
Quad 3 Losses: 0
Quad 4 Losses: 0
Road Record: 7-4
Neutral Record: 2-1

Things to Watch
- Michigan is ONE spot away from giving us yet another Quad 1 win (they need to be top 30. It would be really nice for them to beat Indiana and for us to smash Juwan one more time. :)
- RU is #76, and we need them to be 75 for our win at home vs. them to be Quad 2 and our loss in Jersey to be Quad 1. They play the winner of Iowa and Nebraska/Northwestern. We REALLY need them to win that game! It helps our resume, Iowa is likely to stay top 30 no matter what and personally I want no piece of playing Iowa for a third time...
- Cincinnati is clinging to life at #100, meaning our loss to them is still Quad 2 for the moment. At this point, I think we have the wins to offset that, but it would be nice to have zero Quad 3 losses.
- Most importantly ... it's only Quad 1/Quad 2 games from here on out no matter what! If we were to, say, beat #31 Michigan (Quad 1), beat #76 Rutgers (Quad 2) and then beat Wisconsin, Purdue or Ohio State (all Quad 1) in the championship game, we would have to SERIOUSLY be considered for a 2-seed in Chicago, no??
Click to expand...

If you want to track seeding, IMO it's much easier to take the official top 16 that the committee announced in February and see what those teams have done since then. Here are the 2 seeds from Feb 18th and what they have done since then.

#5 Baylor (5-0)
#6 Kentucky (4-1) - loss @Arkansas
#7 Purdue (2-2) - losses @MSU, @Wisconsin
#8 Duke (4-1) - loss to UNC

IMO there are 6 teams that are a lock for a top 2 seed. Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas, Baylor, and Kentucky. That only leaves Purdue and Duke to replace.
Unfortunately, Tennessee and Nova would probably get those spots right now. Root for Purdue, Nova, Tennessee, and Duke to get knocked out early if we want a chance at a 2 seed. I think we are ahead of Texas Tech and Wisconsin right now.
 
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#23      
Piotyr
jrichisamazing said:
If you want to track seeding, IMO it's much easier to take the official top 16 that the committee announced in February and see what those teams have done since then. Here are the 2 seeds from Feb 18th and what they have done since then.

#5 Baylor (5-0)
#6 Kentucky (4-1) - loss @Arkansas
#7 Purdue (2-2) - losses @MSU, @Wisconsin
#8 Duke (4-1) - loss to UNC

IMO there are 6 teams that are a lock for a top 2 seed. Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kentucky, Baylor, and Kentucky. That only leaves Purdue and Duke to replace.
Unfortunately, Tennessee and Nova would probably get those spots right now. Root for Purdue, Nova, Tennessee, and Duke to get knocked out early if we want a chance at a 2 seed. I think we are ahead of Texas Tech and Wisconsin right now.
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I mean, I agree Kentucky is good, but I don't think they get a 1 seed AND a 2 seed (you probably intended one of those to be Kansas).
 
#24      
Fighter of the Nightman
jrichisamazing said:
If you want to track seeding, IMO it's much easier to take the official top 16 that the committee announced in February and see what those teams have done since then. Here are the 2 seeds from Feb 18th and what they have done since then.

#5 Baylor (5-0)
#6 Kentucky (4-1) - loss @Arkansas
#7 Purdue (2-2) - losses @MSU, @Wisconsin
#8 Duke (4-1) - loss to UNC

IMO there are 6 teams that are a lock for a top 2 seed. Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas, Baylor, and Kentucky. That only leaves Purdue and Duke to replace.
Unfortunately, Tennessee and Nova would probably get those spots right now. Root for Purdue, Nova, Tennessee, and Duke to get knocked out early if we want a chance at a 2 seed. I think we are ahead of Texas Tech and Wisconsin right now.
Click to expand...
True, good point. On the flip side of this, I think this suggests the "bracketologists" are undervaluing us as a 4-seed. We were a 3 in February, and I believe I saw we have now gone 3-1 in Quad 1 games since then. You'd think we are still comfortably in that area.
 
#25      
DeonThomas
Retro62 said:
If we make the championship game of the BTT, we should be a three. Win it, and there's no question.
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Winning both titles more than likely gives us a 2-seed. It's certainly not a lock ---- but likely. Someone like Duke is probably going to go out early in their post-season tourney.

I'm speculating that Wisc, Purd and ILL are fighting for a #2, #3 and a #4 seed. Order of finish in the BTT will dictate who finishes where.
 
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