Bracketology
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Is ScuM still in the dance? I hope not!
sacraig
- The desert
Bubble team. I think they are in the last four in/out in various brackets. I have no idea how their collapse against IU today will affect that. Certainly not positively.
Great website to understand Quad ranking system. Those 3 home losses AZ, Purdue OSU don't happen last year with Ayo.
bballnet.com
Illinois - NET Rankings and Quad Wins
2024 Illinois Quad wins for NCAA College Basketball. NET rankings and Quadrants are used to help select teams for the NCAA Tournament during March Madness.
I mean, Illinois lost at home to OSU last year with Ayo.Great website to understand Quad ranking system. Those 3 home losses AZ, Purdue OSU don't happen last year with Ayo.
Illinois - NET Rankings and Quad Wins
2024 Illinois Quad wins for NCAA College Basketball. NET rankings and Quadrants are used to help select teams for the NCAA Tournament during March Madness.
True but rest of team is better this year!
I haven’t read all the previous posts, but has it been discussed WHERE we might end up playing? Would we be further off as the top 3 vs. the last 2 seed, or the top 4 vs. the last 3 (if we don’t do well in BTT) if that would mean playing in Milwaukee and Chicago and having somewhat of a home court advantage? How does the committee decide where to put teams? I thought they tried to keep travel to a minimum if possible.
I like to think it doesn't matter. You have to win the games. It's the match ups that count. But I like the 3 versus 4 seed logic. I also like a 6 seed over a 5 seed
The thing that this ignores is that the NET isn't static, and their profile as of Feb 19 shifted due to the results of the teams they previously played. Specifically, Illinois' profile was hurt by late season struggles by Marquette, Cincinnati, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State and Kansas State, turning prior Q1 wins into Q2 wins and Q2 wins into Q3 wins and Q1 losses into Q2 losses.
They’re an interesting case because almost every team that has had a sub-35 RPI or NET has made the dance, and they are 31 in NET and 47 in RPI, the 3rd strongest schedule, and only 1 bad loss which really isn’t that bad compared to other bubble teams.
On the other hand they have a lot of losses, and don’t really pass the eye test.
Baylor losing hurts them. Their injuries make them bearable this year. They will be a 2 seed
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
While this is true, the committee has also noted that the quadrants are simply a guide and not all wins in each quadrant are created equal.
A win on the road at #29 is more valuable than a win at home against #29, even though both wins are Q1 wins.
Beating a team ranked #31 at home is more valuable than beating a team ranked #74 at home, even though they are both Q2 wins.
So a team falling or rising a spot here or there might move them up or down into different quadrants but the win itself remains very similar in value. If I understand correctly.
That's the thing, they aren't the same. Michigan State has lost 7 of 9, so even though the road win is quad 1, it's far less impressive than it was 3 weeks ago.
On Feb 19, Illinois had a NET of 12 and SOR of 12. Now, after a 4-1 stretch with good wins, they have a NET of 14 and SOR of 15. The profile just isn't as good as it was at the time, and the reason for that is the games that were already played as of Feb 19.
Most recent Lunardi update has us as a 4 seed.
Additionally, Michigan still in the last four byes. After today's win, Indiana is now the last team in (I believe before todays game they were in the first four out).
Additionally, Michigan still in the last four byes. After today's win, Indiana is now the last team in (I believe before todays game they were in the first four out).
Men's Bracketology: Duke plus Cooper Flagg makes Blue Devils early overall No. 1
Bracketology begins the off season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle on top.
www.espn.com
I still thought they would be but since Baylor lost to OU, it looks like Baylor will at best be a 2 and possibly a 3. If Tech wins the tourney, KU and Tech will both be 2's and UK and Auburn will be on the 1 line if they both reach the SEC final. Baylor will be a 3. Lots to still play for. PU is the only B1G team that could secure a 1 seed by winning the B1G
Lunardi is a tool. How do you have scUM still in with 14 loses? How do you have Xavier still in? Baylor a 1 after yesterday? Wisky a 2 with a worse NET than Illinois and PU? What he is saying is that Wisky will win the B1G most likely over us and PU losing to Wisky on Saturday. His bracket makes zero sense.Most recent Lunardi update has us as a 4 seed.
Additionally, Michigan still in the last four byes. After today's win, Indiana is now the last team in (I believe before todays game they were in the first four out).
Men's Bracketology: Duke plus Cooper Flagg makes Blue Devils early overall No. 1
Bracketology begins the off season projections with a familiar name at the top. Duke, led by generational recruit Cooper Flagg, starts our 2024-25 bracket cycle on top.www.espn.com
Lunardi may well be a tool, but he has a pretty good track record as far as predicting brackets. And all he's saying is this is how it stands as of right now. Other teams could pass Michigan and knock them out. We could move up. Wisconsin could move down.
As for NET, the committee cares way more about the NET rankings of your wins and losses than your own NET ranking. Wisconsin has 8 Q1 wins and 8 Q2 wins. We have 6 Q1 wins and 6 Q2 wins. That's the difference right now. Again, that is subject to change.
I understand the dynamics of how the Committee thinks as I have been charting the tournament for years and Lunardi is not very good at it as he likes trendy picks. But so does the Committee. They will move a team up or move a team down to get a matchup that will bring in the most money. Last year dropping Loyola to an 8 from a 6 just to get the matchup they wanted was on the surface unfair to Illinois but we still should have won the game.
Most likely a 2 as that moves UK or Auburn to the 1 line with Kansas, Az and Gonzaga. The 2's will be Baylor, the B1G champ between PU, Ill and Wisky, Auburn or UK and Duke. Tech will be a 3 along with the other two B1G teams and Villanova. Tennessee, Providence, UCLA and either Arkansas or UConn can be the last 4.
With that thumping TT put on Iowa St yesterday and Nova pulling it out, the only way i think we move up to a 3 is if we at least get to the finals of the BTT. Tennessee could very well implode since they aren't playing at home. Definitely need this win today. Wisconsin losing could help too. Don't believe they are on the 2/3 line, more the 3/4 line.
teemaddy12
- MO
Honestly, as long as we aren't the 4-seed in Gonzaga's region (I believe they are way, way ahead of everyone else), all of the other #1 seeds have some issues and/or aren't that far away from the 2-seed line - - so I'm not sure whether being a 3 or a 4 seed matters all that much. Arizona, the only other really unanimous #1, was dealt a big blow yesterday with Kerr Kriisa going down. From there, it doesn't seem like there's much difference between Baylor, Kansas, Auburn, Kentucky, or Duke in that battle for the final two number one seeds.
What am I missing with scUM. How are they still a tourney team?
He has a great track record as far as teams that get in, but that is fairly easy save about 3 maybe 4 teams each year. I don't think his track record is as good when it comes to seeding.
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