Because . . . . PANIC MODE!
Bracketology
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Iowa no. We beat them twice. I doubt it on any of the other teams. I think a lot of us tend to put a little too much emphasis on these conference tourneys. They help them bubble teams like IU but I feel at of the top seeds are already set with some shuffling among 1 and 2 seeds.
We are who we are at this point: Kofi is going to get his 20 and 11 most games, and then the onus is on our guards. Do they show up? If so, we can hang with anyone. If not, we can lose to anyone. Our guard play is going to dictate our March Madness run this year. Can’t be the way it was today. The boys will be fired up.
Spot on. Kofi can’t score 60 points. A mid major team is going to let Kofi get his and force our guards to score.
We are not dropping 4 seed. Some need to relax.
We could easily drop to 17 to 20 range from around 14 before today's loss. We could easily be a 5 seed. We have lost 3 of our last 7. I hope we don't drop but we most certainly could.
I just want to see us in Milwaukee. That's all I ask. If they would have won today, it would have been a lock and the support would have been enormous. Now...who knows.
Katz said in the pregame show that the top 16 seeds have already been seeded by the committee, and that there’d only be shuffling amongst them.
I’d have to think we were in the top 16 this morning
He also said Indiana didn't need a win yesterday. If they can shuffle the 4 or 5 overall seed they can shuffle the overall 16 and 17th seed. Not to mention for example if Iowa or someone in a similar spot a 5 seed now wins out they could easily move up.
They did need a win yesterday. They were definitely a heavy lean to the outside had they lost yesterday.
There is a difference between in IU's situation who is on the bubble and our situation of already being in. They aren't going to shuffle teams that lose in their conference tourneys that have been consistently ranked in the top 20 most of the year. Not to mention the other factors like winning your conference, head to head, etc.
Also who are these teams that is going to shuffle us from 4 to 5?
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Milwaukee/Indy high seed locks:
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Purdue
4th high seed team possibility:
Tennessee
Illinois
Iowa
It's possible Tennessee gets moved to South Carolina but with Duke and Auburn likely already being slotted there, I'm guessing they'll get the final Indy spot with Kentucky and Wisconsin and Purdue playing in Milwaukee. Illinois and Iowa left out in the cold. It's a possibility though that if Iowa wins the BTT they could give it to them. Either way, I think as a 4/5 seed we're likely an outsider for Milwaukee. Just too many higher seeded teams within the geographic area.
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Purdue
4th high seed team possibility:
Tennessee
Illinois
Iowa
It's possible Tennessee gets moved to South Carolina but with Duke and Auburn likely already being slotted there, I'm guessing they'll get the final Indy spot with Kentucky and Wisconsin and Purdue playing in Milwaukee. Illinois and Iowa left out in the cold. It's a possibility though that if Iowa wins the BTT they could give it to them. Either way, I think as a 4/5 seed we're likely an outsider for Milwaukee. Just too many higher seeded teams within the geographic area.
If they put us out west, I'm ok with that.
Andy Katz is a [fill in the blank].
Why does nobody want to play Gonzaga or Arizona? We would meet them in the regional semis ... if we get there. I don't think AZ is as tough with Kerr Kriisa's injury, and we want payback. Gonzaga is beatable just like Auburn, KY, Baylor, Kansas.
Nevermind, I'm an idiot. I forgot we are a 4/5 seed which means that we would share a pod site with another 4/5 team so in effect 5 high seed teams can fit in Milwaukee/Indy. That said, if Kentucky, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Tennessee all slot out as better than a 4 seed which seems likely at this point, I think same idea as above holds true and we're out of Milwaukee/Indy. Really I should just break it down by geography and seed
Lotta parity in this field. There are literally 6 or 8 teams that could win this thing and we are one of them.
Okay let's just do this the old fashioned way. There are 8 pods which means 8 teams play at each site and as such 4 higher seed play at each site. However, those higher seeds are coupled (1/16v8/9, 4/13v5/12, etc), so only 2 top 4 seeds will play in a given location. Let's break it down:
Northeast: Buffalo, Pittsburgh(4)
Villanova (3)
Providence (4)
Open Slot 1
Open Slot 2
Southeast: South Carolina (2)
Duke (2)
Auburn (2)
South: Texas (2)
Kansas (1)
Baylor (1)
Midwest: Indy, Milwaukee (4)
Kentucky (1)
Wisconsin (2)
Purdue (3)
Open Slot 3
West: San Diego, Portland (4)
Gonzaga (1)
Arizona (1)
Texas Tech (3)
UCLA (4)
St. Mary's (4/5)
Remaining teams
Tennessee (3) - Midwest/Northeast (?)
Arkansas (4) -Midwest/Northeast
Illinois (4/5) -Midwest/Northeast
UConn (4/5) - Northeast (?)
USC (4/5)- Midwest/Northeast
Iowa (4/5) -Midwest/Northeast
So my best guess would be Tennessee fills in the last Midwest spot however it is possible to slot them in the Northeast instead to get Arkansas and Illinois/Iowa closer as the 4/5 matchup there. Then UConn goes Northeast which means 2 other 4/5's join them in the Northeast as UCONN and Providence can't play each other. So that leaves a pool of Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, and USC to fill in there (USC bounced from West as they can't play UCLA so St. Mary's automatically slots in).
So based on how I see it unless the bracket podding goes wacky, Illinois is most probably in the Northeast but could back their way into the Midwest if the NCAA decides Tennessee's preference doesn't matter.
Northeast: Buffalo, Pittsburgh(4)
Villanova (3)
Providence (4)
Open Slot 1
Open Slot 2
Southeast: South Carolina (2)
Duke (2)
Auburn (2)
South: Texas (2)
Kansas (1)
Baylor (1)
Midwest: Indy, Milwaukee (4)
Kentucky (1)
Wisconsin (2)
Purdue (3)
Open Slot 3
West: San Diego, Portland (4)
Gonzaga (1)
Arizona (1)
Texas Tech (3)
UCLA (4)
St. Mary's (4/5)
Remaining teams
Tennessee (3) - Midwest/Northeast (?)
Arkansas (4) -Midwest/Northeast
Illinois (4/5) -Midwest/Northeast
UConn (4/5) - Northeast (?)
USC (4/5)- Midwest/Northeast
Iowa (4/5) -Midwest/Northeast
So my best guess would be Tennessee fills in the last Midwest spot however it is possible to slot them in the Northeast instead to get Arkansas and Illinois/Iowa closer as the 4/5 matchup there. Then UConn goes Northeast which means 2 other 4/5's join them in the Northeast as UCONN and Providence can't play each other. So that leaves a pool of Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, and USC to fill in there (USC bounced from West as they can't play UCLA so St. Mary's automatically slots in).
So based on how I see it unless the bracket podding goes wacky, Illinois is most probably in the Northeast but could back their way into the Midwest if the NCAA decides Tennessee's preference doesn't matter.
frozenrope9190
- Aurora, IL
Its a bit harder to shuffle the Top 4 seeds if they're given home region considerations and the conference flag for that side of the bracket. Unless there is a catastrophic loss, then it would make sense to have them locked up first.
bigger fan of Illinois than some fans of Illinois.
I am not saying we won't be a ,4 seed but I don't believe things are a lock. Especially losing ,3 of the last 7 and teams like Iowa, U Conn , USC, Houston and others still playing that couple improve their positions. I just wish we had hit some FTs and lay ups today. It was not typical. Things beyond our control have worked out for us a lot the last week and maybe that will continue.
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You forgot the $$$$$ part of this. Illinois and Wisconsin in Milwaukee will be a two session sellout. Don't think that isn't a consideration.
Crazy scenario. John Groce playing for the MAC title tomorrow. Perhaps Illinois vs Akron for a first round game? Joe Lunardi had Illinois playing Toledo who lost to Akron...thoughts?
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