Bracketology
- Status
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
No thanks!
Well…..a high seed or top 20 ranking usually means you have been successful or are a good team….we have been so so on both counts.
I would have hoped for both this year.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think both of us made it clear we care more about the way better game times so we can attend the games, haha. Definitely don’t think our seed in the BTT is a huge deal.
In the NCAAs, however, I would really like to avoid the 8/9 path. While there’s a lot of equality in college hoops this year, in almost every year there’s a pretty big drop off from a #1 seed to a #2 seed, and the stats back that up convincingly over the years. Our “came to play” game in the Second Round might beat a #2 seed by two but come up a point short vs. a #1 seed.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Some good results for the Illini tonight RE: BTT seeding tonight. If we beat Michigan and lose to Purdue, we only need the following “irregular” results this week to get the #6 seed and play at 8:00 pm on Thursday and Friday! Quite ideal for those of us wanting to attend:
1) Penn State beats Maryland at gome
2) Northwestern bounces back with a W at Rutgers
1) Penn State beats Maryland at gome
2) Northwestern bounces back with a W at Rutgers
We need only two upsets to happen for a double bye - scUM to beat the clown pants in Bloomington, and us to beat PU in W. Lafayette (thereby sending the entire Loosier state into a deep state of depression.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Really makes me appreciate our 8-year streak from 2000-2007. We were two BTT Championship losses (‘99 and ‘08) from making it 13 in a row (‘97 to ‘09)!
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I'm honestly surprised there aren't more streaks of 10+ years. I would have thought there would be 7-10 of those. Interesting stuff.
Bigtex
- DFW
MSU really is the goal. A lot of respect for the way Izzo has built and sustained that program without an over reliance on NBA talent. It's never a question of making the tournament, simply a matter of how high they'll be seeded. Even more impressive that he's done it in a tough conference at a non-blue blood.
Annoys me that Iowa is on that list.
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
Unless Northwestern beats Rutgers, then we get #5
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Since Bob Knight retired, one of those is not like the other.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I know how to use the simulator, but can someone reshare a link that shows the probability of getting each seed (i.e., 0% #1 or 2 seed, 4% #4 seed ... #40% 8 or 9 seed, etc.)? I'm a finance man who thinks in terms of statistics/risk, and I would like to try to come up with a basic probability in Excel that I can attend a game at the United Center so I can weigh my potential (pre-) St. Paddy's Day options and not be left hangin', haha.
Looks like a few of those streaks are gonna end.
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
I played with these simulators too much before OSU game and feel like I jinxed it. There are a ton of outcomes where we can finish between 2-4, but most are predicated on UM beating IU. I think we just need to take care of our own business and we will end up fine between 2-6. Lose to PU and we are most likely in the 8-9 game. It's that simple.
Also to unjinx us, losing out could easily put us at 11 too.
Also to unjinx us, losing out could easily put us at 11 too.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Awesome - thank you, sir!
For those considering going, game time will be relevant for many of us. Per the site AyoDos11 linked, these are our probabilities of getting each seed:
Likelihood of Seed
25.4% - #8 seed
24.2% - #9 seed
16.1% - #7 seed
10.9% - #10 seed
10.2% - #6 seed
4.5% - #5 seed
3.1% - #4 seed
2.9% - #3 seed
2.3% - #11 seed
So, to start off, there is a 97.7% chance that we do NOT play on Wednesday (#11 seed or lower). There is also a 93.6% chance that we do NOT get a double-by. Conclusion? We are VERY likely (91.3%) to play our first game on Thursday. Given those odds, I am only going to look at the Thursday paths (so not everything will total to 100%).
As far as game times go, being on the bottom half of the bracket (2-3-6-7-10-11-14 seeds) is way better. There is currently a 42.8% chance that we wind up down there. Overall, these are the likelihoods of our game times, per my sometimes-suspect math:
49.6% 11:00 am on Thursday, 11:00 am on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
27.0% 5:30 pm on Thursday, 5:30 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday
10.2% 8:00 pm on Thursday, 8:00 pm on Friday, 2:30 pm on Saturday
4.5% 1:30 pm on Thursday, 1:30 pm on Friday, 12:00 pm on Saturday
Since those times stay roughly the same, this is the main point if you are a working man/woman in Chicagoland who wishes to attend a game after work:
54.1% chance we play at 1:30 pm or earlier on Thursday and Friday
37.2% chance we play at 5:30 pm or later on Thursday and Friday
Should we make it to the weekend, these are the overall probabilities of our Saturday game time in case you were deciding whether to do brunch or lunch! (Note this won't tie exactly to the Thursday-only scenarios above.)
57.2% chance we play at 12:00 pm on Saturday
42.8% chance we play at 2:30 pm on Saturday
Of course, this will all be completely different in a number of hours.
Keep winning!
I know I'm in the minority but I think this is a must win game tonight. I know the net/quad system but when it gets down to nut crunching time, I believe the committee will look at many other things if a few teams are close.
quality wins: UCLA and Texas, forever ago, types of losses to common opponents if any or to other tourney teams that are getting in just ahead of us, how the teams finish, maybe even the types of losses: Mizzou, Penn st., IU.
also, believe they will look at injuries, which would include games lost when players were sick or injured.
Win tonight eliminates all that and helps me sleep.
quality wins: UCLA and Texas, forever ago, types of losses to common opponents if any or to other tourney teams that are getting in just ahead of us, how the teams finish, maybe even the types of losses: Mizzou, Penn st., IU.
also, believe they will look at injuries, which would include games lost when players were sick or injured.
Win tonight eliminates all that and helps me sleep.
At this point, I just hope we squeeze past the 1st round.
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