I don't actually know how the NET ranking works but mathematically that would make sense that one game towards the end of the season is going to have a smaller impact on your cumulative (or average?) ranking when it's 1/20 of your games played versus early in the season when one game could be 1/5 of your games played
Bracketology
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AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Illinois is now the top #4 seed according to Bracket Matrix, meaning a first round matchup with Liberty, UC Irvine, UNCG, or UNCW. A potential second round matchup would put us against one of the 5 seeds--Colorado St, Virginia, Memphis, Kentucky--or one of the 12 seeds--Princeton, Providence, Florida, Nevada, Indiana St, or Washington. There are definitely some teams on this list that scare me more than others, but I still like our chances to make a tourney run in this scenario.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
I feel like our resume last year was entirely propped up by this that we had a better 2 wins with UCLA and Texas on national TV which were better than other bubble/lower at large seeds.
Those two wins got us into the tournament. If we didn't have them, we would have probably been a #1 seed in the NIT or in the play-in game. Last year wasn't fun.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
You’re probably right. Last year we were 2-12 in Q1 games. Those were the 2.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
What’s funny to is if you dig deeper into the 2 wins - I think one TSJ went like 8-9 from 3 or something crazy against UCLA and against Texas it was a crazy combo of missed FTs and we hit a few huge shots following.
Nothing we’re doing this year looks unsustainable so far.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Right on. Just looked at those games again:
- Against UCLA, we were down 15 early in the 2H with a win probability around 6%. TSJ indeed went 8 of 9 from downtown.
- Against Texas we were down 10 with 8:00 to play, 4% win probability. Mayer went 5 of 5 from deep.
We averaged 19 turnovers in those two wins, and then failed to get another Q1 win in 12 opportunities. Ouch.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
One interesting thing right now is that Purdue and Wisconsin are the only other B1G teams in the NET top 30. We don't play the Badgers at home, so as it stands now Purdue would be our only home opportunity for a Quad 1 win.
That'll probably change - MSU or OSU could end up top-30. But we also don't play the Buckeyes at home, so at most we're talking about 2 Q1 home opportunities. To get a top 3 seed, we may need to win both of those in addition to doing some serious #roadwarriors work.
That'll probably change - MSU or OSU could end up top-30. But we also don't play the Buckeyes at home, so at most we're talking about 2 Q1 home opportunities. To get a top 3 seed, we may need to win both of those in addition to doing some serious #roadwarriors work.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Some media guys are starting to buy in.
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
2 out of three is awesome for just the respect given..............It really really is...........
2 out of 3 prognosticators are correct!
For context:
They were asked to pick 1 top 5 team, 2 teams outside of the top 5 & one unranked team.
Bracketmatrix has Illinois as the top #4 seed.
Creighton losses again, Baylor losses again & Oklahoma loss last night, thinking once it gets updated we are looking at a solid #3 seed.
Creighton losses again, Baylor losses again & Oklahoma loss last night, thinking once it gets updated we are looking at a solid #3 seed.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
To get a 2 seed, we’ve probably gotta go 16-4 in conference.
KU and FAU in the same bracket with us.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
As much as anything, this year feels like it's about avoiding mediocre to bad losses. Just about every team has a loss on their record that makes you scratch your head. Thus far, we've avoided one of those. We've gotta take care of business in our final two non-conference games (please don't lose tonight!). Do that and then hold serve on our home conference games and win half of the rest of our away games and we are 15-5 or 16-4. It's possible. Just about every game in the conference is extremely winnable. Man, I would love for that Purdue game at home on March 5th to be for at least a share of the conference title and a top seed.
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Late on this. Marquette yes. Tennessee no. I can’t remember the last time we played sustainably well against a southern P5 school in a real game.
Baylor got us but they were champs so they got everyone
Arkansas
Tennessee
Texas MM game not consistent/sustainable offense
Houston (only now p5 but roster has been SEC style with height/length/athleticism combo)
Legitimately asking somebody for a counter example because I can’t remember one off the top of my head
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
It's been a while. At Duke, Dec. 8, 2020. Won 83-68.
We’ve already proven we can beat both. Bring ‘em on if it comes to it!
and UCONN, who’s up against DeCock’s hard and fast choice… Longwood!
Mustn't know we don't have a PG.
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