I feel like we're slowing getting locked into that 4/5 slot. Have to win 2 of 3 vs MSU/Purdue/Wisconsin, then win out on all other games outside of those.
I don't think that's true. There really isn't much of a difference between the quality of teams from low 2 seeds to 4 seed.
Purdue and UConn are locked into a 1 seed.
Houston, UNC, TN, AZ are locked into a 1 or 2 seed.
Other than that, the rest of the teams have all shown serious flaws and I can see us jumping.
Wisconsin: lost 2 in a row, but still has a very favorable schedule. Feel like Our H2H will go a long ways in each team's seeding.
Marquette: lost at home to Butler, and road loss to Seaton Hall. However, other than UConn game they don't have a lot of tough games. But they've been inconsistent.
Kansas: The great win vs Houston doesn't make me forget about the losses to UCF and West Virginia
Alabama: Basically the same resume as us, but gets propped up because Nate Oates is a great coach
Creighton: One of the most overrated teams in the nation. 3 Q2 losses...UNLV, Nova, and butler
Iowa State: They seem legit. I don't see them falling much more. Not a lot of 2,3,4 seeds will have wins over Houston and Kansas
Duke: Very overrated, but it's Duke so they'll be overseeded. 1-3 record in Q2.
Baylor: Interesting team. Some great wins and Drew will have them playing their best come crunch time. I expect them to stay up here.
My prediction as of now:
1 seed: UConn, Purdue, TN, UNC
2 seed: Houston, AZ, Iowa St, Marquette
3 seed: Baylor, Kansas, Illinois, Duke
4 seed: Alabama, Wisconsin, ??, ??
But as you can see I can see us easily jumping into the 3 seed line. And if TSJ can find his pre-suspension form and we have a finish like 2021 a 2 seed isn't even out of the question. But we could also very well drop some games, be inconsistent and fall to a 4 or 5.