Bracketology

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#2      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
Thinking that we'll hover (average) around #10 in the nation as the polls are updated --- and a 3-seed in the big bracket. In fact, KenPom does have us at #10.
 
#3      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
#4      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Second place is 1st loser said:
I feel like we're slowing getting locked into that 4/5 slot. Have to win 2 of 3 vs MSU/Purdue/Wisconsin, then win out on all other games outside of those.
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That's a VERY tall order.

It really shows what an advantage a loaded Big Ten is under the current NCAA seeding regime, in prior years our schedule would just be opportunity after opportunity for resume-enhancing wins. Not so much this year.
 
#5      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
ChiefGritty said:
That's a VERY tall order.

It really shows what an advantage a loaded Big Ten is under the current NCAA seeding regime, in prior years our schedule would just be opportunity after opportunity for resume-enhancing wins. Not so much this year.
Click to expand...
Agree. I think that it was Rick Pizzo last night who noted that Nebraska has no games left vs a top 25 team on the road (maybe overall), so they'll have an issue with their resume. When's the last time that could be said with 9 games to play?

To your point, it's a tall order for us. People may disagree with me, but if we drop all three....I don't think that 6-8 is out of the equation.
 
#7      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754521282811486341
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This is exactly the issues with not the net ranking, but how then wins are categorized against it.

I get the home/away splits matter but to say that a win at Ohio state, a team clinging to maybe an NIT birth is more valuable then beating NW and Nebraska anywhere, 2 current tournament teams (who can you beat?), seems off.

The one thing I like about the CFP is after they determine the top 25 - then that record against the top 25 (as a proxy for “tourney teams”) is then used to see who is good and who has beaten up on bad teams.
 
#8      

Second place is 1st loser

S
Second place is 1st loser
Illinicpa14 said:
This is exactly the issues with not the net ranking, but how then wins are categorized against it.

I get the home/away splits matter but to say that a win at Ohio state, a team clinging to maybe an NIT birth is more valuable then beating NW and Nebraska anywhere, 2 current tournament teams (who can you beat?), seems off.

The one thing I like about the CFP is after they determine the top 25 - then that record against the top 25 (as a proxy for “tourney teams”) is then used to see who is good and who has beaten up on bad teams.
Click to expand...
Let's add to that. Seems to me like ONE Q4 loss is a resume burner. Look at NW. That Chicago State L LOOKS to carry more weight than beating Purdue and Illinois at home....and taking Purdue down to the wire on the road.
 
#9      

Illinicpa14

I
Chicago
Illinicpa14
Second place is 1st loser said:
Let's add to that. Seems to me like ONE Q4 loss is a resume burner. Look at NW. That Chicago State L LOOKS to carry more weight than beating Purdue and Illinois at home....and taking Purdue down to the wire on the road.
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Right - If it’s “who can you beat” - we’ll clearly that Nw team has shown it can beat 1 and 3/4 seeds and play competitive against them most nights.
 
#10      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Illinicpa14 said:
This is exactly the issues with not the net ranking, but how then wins are categorized against it.

I get the home/away splits matter but to say that a win at Ohio state, a team clinging to maybe an NIT birth is more valuable then beating NW and Nebraska anywhere, 2 current tournament teams (who can you beat?), seems off.

The one thing I like about the CFP is after they determine the top 25 - then that record against the top 25 (as a proxy for “tourney teams”) is then used to see who is good and who has beaten up on bad teams.
Click to expand...

That's kind of exactly what the NET is supposed to do. It's partly resume (the reason NW and Neb are tourney teams and OSU is fringe NIT) but partly predictive (OSU is most likely only a couple points worse than those two teams). I agree though that the arbitrary cutoffs are, well, arbitrary. Would prefer a graphical representation - wouldn't be that hard to do...
 
#11      

ChiefGritty

ChiefGritty
Chicago, IL
ChiefGritty
Second place is 1st loser said:
Let's add to that. Seems to me like ONE Q4 loss is a resume burner. Look at NW. That Chicago State L LOOKS to carry more weight than beating Purdue and Illinois at home....and taking Purdue down to the wire on the road.
Click to expand...
Which to me isn't an error of the data, it's an error of interpreting the data.

One bad loss shouldn't spoil a resume, that doesn't make any sense as a way to analyze a college basketball team.

Also, credit to Chicago State who have some actual wins against actual D1 programs this year and are out of the 300+ zone of KenPom for the first time I think ever? As someone who has frequently argued that that program shouldn't exist, good for them.
 
#12      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
With updated NET Rankings, this is how our remaining opportunities now classify:

Quad 1
at #22 Michigan State
at #13 Wisconsin
vs. #2 Purdue
at #60 Iowa

Quad 2
at #78 Maryland ... Q1 if they get to #75 or better!
at #99 Penn State
vs. #60 Iowa
vs. #91 Minnesota

Quad 3
vs. #111 Michigan

So, the only disastrous loss opportunity left is Michigan at home (not that we want to drop any games, of course). Do NOT lose to Juwan, period. We have 4 and possibly 5 excellent Quad 1 opportunities left (in addition to 3-4 Quad 2 ones!), so let's keep stacking the wins. I also FIRMLY believe that all results in the BTT through Saturday ARE taken into account (they obviously cannot consider the BTT Championship result due to the time), so FYI this is where each Big Ten opponent would fall if we faced them in the BTT on a neutral floor in Minneapolis

Quad 1
#2 Purdue
#13 Wisconsin
#22 Michigan State

Quad 2
#52 Nebraska ... Q1 if they got into the top 50.
#58 Northwestern ... wow, that Chicago State loss must be killing them.
#60 Iowa
#68 Ohio State
#78 Maryland
#91 Minnesota
#99 Penn State ... but Q3 if they drop below #100.

Quad 3
#103 Indiana ... Q2 if they climb into the top 100, but I say that's unlikely!
#104 Rutgers
#111 Michigan

That's actually a great representation of the Big Ten this year, IMO. Three top 25 teams but also only 3 top 50 teams (though I think NU and UNL are quite underrated here!). Then a bunch of teams that are still at least borderline top 100 (i.e., nobody without a pulse).
 
#14      

Monticello

M
Monticello
Fighter of the Nightman said:
With updated NET Rankings, this is how our remaining opportunities now classify:

Quad 1
at #22 Michigan State
at #13 Wisconsin
vs. #2 Purdue
at #60 Iowa

Quad 2
at #78 Maryland ... Q1 if they get to #75 or better!
at #99 Penn State
vs. #60 Iowa
vs. #91 Minnesota

Quad 3
vs. #111 Michigan

So, the only disastrous loss opportunity left is Michigan at home (not that we want to drop any games, of course). Do NOT lose to Juwan, period. We have 4 and possibly 5 excellent Quad 1 opportunities left (in addition to 3-4 Quad 2 ones!), so let's keep stacking the wins. I also FIRMLY believe that all results in the BTT through Saturday ARE taken into account (they obviously cannot consider the BTT Championship result due to the time), so FYI this is where each Big Ten opponent would fall if we faced them in the BTT on a neutral floor in Minneapolis

Quad 1
#2 Purdue
#13 Wisconsin
#22 Michigan State

Quad 2
#52 Nebraska ... Q1 if they got into the top 50.
#58 Northwestern ... wow, that Chicago State loss must be killing them.
#60 Iowa
#68 Ohio State
#78 Maryland
#91 Minnesota
#99 Penn State ... but Q3 if they drop below #100.

Quad 3
#103 Indiana ... Q2 if they climb into the top 100, but I say that's unlikely!
#104 Rutgers
#111 Michigan

That's actually a great representation of the Big Ten this year, IMO. Three top 25 teams but also only 3 top 50 teams (though I think NU and UNL are quite underrated here!). Then a bunch of teams that are still at least borderline top 100 (i.e., nobody without a pulse).
Click to expand...
Thank you. I sat down with a pad and a pencil to jot these down this morning and kept getting interrupted. I appreciate you putting it together.
 
#15      

Illini1985

I
Illini1985
Second place is 1st loser said:
I feel like we're slowing getting locked into that 4/5 slot. Have to win 2 of 3 vs MSU/Purdue/Wisconsin, then win out on all other games outside of those.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's true. There really isn't much of a difference between the quality of teams from low 2 seeds to 4 seed.

Purdue and UConn are locked into a 1 seed.

Houston, UNC, TN, AZ are locked into a 1 or 2 seed.

Other than that, the rest of the teams have all shown serious flaws and I can see us jumping.

Wisconsin: lost 2 in a row, but still has a very favorable schedule. Feel like Our H2H will go a long ways in each team's seeding.

Marquette: lost at home to Butler, and road loss to Seaton Hall. However, other than UConn game they don't have a lot of tough games. But they've been inconsistent.

Kansas: The great win vs Houston doesn't make me forget about the losses to UCF and West Virginia

Alabama: Basically the same resume as us, but gets propped up because Nate Oates is a great coach

Creighton: One of the most overrated teams in the nation. 3 Q2 losses...UNLV, Nova, and butler

Iowa State: They seem legit. I don't see them falling much more. Not a lot of 2,3,4 seeds will have wins over Houston and Kansas

Duke: Very overrated, but it's Duke so they'll be overseeded. 1-3 record in Q2.

Baylor: Interesting team. Some great wins and Drew will have them playing their best come crunch time. I expect them to stay up here.

My prediction as of now:

1 seed: UConn, Purdue, TN, UNC
2 seed: Houston, AZ, Iowa St, Marquette
3 seed: Baylor, Kansas, Illinois, Duke
4 seed: Alabama, Wisconsin, ??, ??

But as you can see I can see us easily jumping into the 3 seed line. And if TSJ can find his pre-suspension form and we have a finish like 2021 a 2 seed isn't even out of the question. But we could also very well drop some games, be inconsistent and fall to a 4 or 5.
 
#16      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
Illini1985 said:
I don't think that's true. There really isn't much of a difference between the quality of teams from low 2 seeds to 4 seed.

Purdue and UConn are locked into a 1 seed.

Houston, UNC, TN, AZ are locked into a 1 or 2 seed.

Other than that, the rest of the teams have all shown serious flaws and I can see us jumping.

Wisconsin: lost 2 in a row, but still has a very favorable schedule. Feel like Our H2H will go a long ways in each team's seeding.

Marquette: lost at home to Butler, and road loss to Seaton Hall. However, other than UConn game they don't have a lot of tough games. But they've been inconsistent.

Kansas: The great win vs Houston doesn't make me forget about the losses to UCF and West Virginia

Alabama: Basically the same resume as us, but gets propped up because Nate Oates is a great coach

Creighton: One of the most overrated teams in the nation. 3 Q2 losses...UNLV, Nova, and butler

Iowa State: They seem legit. I don't see them falling much more. Not a lot of 2,3,4 seeds will have wins over Houston and Kansas

Duke: Very overrated, but it's Duke so they'll be overseeded. 1-3 record in Q2.

Baylor: Interesting team. Some great wins and Drew will have them playing their best come crunch time. I expect them to stay up here.

My prediction as of now:

1 seed: UConn, Purdue, TN, UNC
2 seed: Houston, AZ, Iowa St, Marquette
3 seed: Baylor, Kansas, Illinois, Duke
4 seed: Alabama, Wisconsin, ??, ??

But as you can see I can see us easily jumping into the 3 seed line. And if TSJ can find his pre-suspension form and we have a finish like 2021 a 2 seed isn't even out of the question. But we could also very well drop some games, be inconsistent and fall to a 4 or 5.
Click to expand...
good post..........
 
#18      

IlliniMike_Aurora

IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
IlliniMike_Aurora
Fighter of the Nightman said:
With updated NET Rankings, this is how our remaining opportunities now classify:

Quad 1
at #22 Michigan State
at #13 Wisconsin
vs. #2 Purdue
at #60 Iowa

Quad 2
at #78 Maryland ... Q1 if they get to #75 or better!
at #99 Penn State
vs. #60 Iowa
vs. #91 Minnesota

Quad 3
vs. #111 Michigan

So, the only disastrous loss opportunity left is Michigan at home (not that we want to drop any games, of course). Do NOT lose to Juwan, period. We have 4 and possibly 5 excellent Quad 1 opportunities left (in addition to 3-4 Quad 2 ones!), so let's keep stacking the wins. I also FIRMLY believe that all results in the BTT through Saturday ARE taken into account (they obviously cannot consider the BTT Championship result due to the time), so FYI this is where each Big Ten opponent would fall if we faced them in the BTT on a neutral floor in Minneapolis

Quad 1
#2 Purdue
#13 Wisconsin
#22 Michigan State

Quad 2
#52 Nebraska ... Q1 if they got into the top 50.
#58 Northwestern ... wow, that Chicago State loss must be killing them.
#60 Iowa
#68 Ohio State
#78 Maryland
#91 Minnesota
#99 Penn State ... but Q3 if they drop below #100.

Quad 3
#103 Indiana ... Q2 if they climb into the top 100, but I say that's unlikely!
#104 Rutgers
#111 Michigan

That's actually a great representation of the Big Ten this year, IMO. Three top 25 teams but also only 3 top 50 teams (though I think NU and UNL are quite underrated here!). Then a bunch of teams that are still at least borderline top 100 (i.e., nobody without a pulse).
Click to expand...
thanks, gotta take care of business in those Q1, Q2 GAMES - LETS see how we fare on Saturday for beginners.....
 
#19      

Battle89

Battle89
Battle89
Monticello said:
Thank you. I sat down with a pad and a pencil to jot these down this morning and kept getting interrupted. I appreciate you putting it together.
Click to expand...
1707165997067.png
 
#22      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Second place is 1st loser said:
Get us to Indianapolis...
Click to expand...

Pretty slim chance that happens as Purdue and Marquette are ahead of us in the pecking order and we likely wouldn't jump either one of them unless one of them had a huge collapse down the stretch or we went for a run in the rest of the season and through the BTT. Next closest early round site to us geographically, other than Pittsburgh, would be Omaha, which is where KU and Wisky are currently projected to go.
 
#23      

IlliniFaninHoosierLand

IlliniFaninHoosierLand
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
Second place is 1st loser said:
Agree. I think that it was Rick Pizzo last night who noted that Nebraska has no games left vs a top 25 team on the road (maybe overall), so they'll have an issue with their resume. When's the last time that could be said with 9 games to play?
Click to expand...

Here's what Nebraska has left by Quad (with each team's current NET ranking):

Quad 1
-at Northwestern (58)
-at Ohio State (68)

Quad 2
-at Indiana (103)
-at Michigan (111)

Quad 3
-vs. Michigan (111)
-vs. Penn State (99)
-vs. Minnesota (91)
-vs. Rutgers (104)
 
#24      

AdDoBe

A
AdDoBe
Fighter of the Nightman said:
With updated NET Rankings, this is how our remaining opportunities now classify:

Quad 1
at #22 Michigan State
at #13 Wisconsin
vs. #2 Purdue
at #60 Iowa

Quad 2
at #78 Maryland ... Q1 if they get to #75 or better!
at #99 Penn State
vs. #60 Iowa
vs. #91 Minnesota

Quad 3
vs. #111 Michigan
Click to expand...
I'm confused (doesn't take much). Shouldn't home against #91 Minnesota be Quad 3? Or else why is our loss at home against #78 Maryland considered Quad 3?
 
#25      

Calvin

C
Calvin
Second place is 1st loser said:
Let's add to that. Seems to me like ONE Q4 loss is a resume burner. Look at NW. That Chicago State L LOOKS to carry more weight than beating Purdue and Illinois at home....and taking Purdue down to the wire on the road.
Click to expand...

Q4 is pretty bad, but a lot of teams will have an ugly blemish on their resume. In general, good wins count more than bad losses, although I think over the years analytics have become much more important. I used to follow tournament seeding really close. The closer I followed it, the more I thought the committee actually did a decent job.

Bracket matrix, polls, and analytics all have us floating around a 4 seed right now. I don't think there's a huge separation around us, though, so we could definitely improve on it. My guess is we wind up a 4 since I'm thinking we lose at least 2 more, Purdue and @Wiscy. We haven't looked great the last few games --some ugly wins where we looked a little tired or struggling to put opponents away.
 
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