Bracketology

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#51      
The "B1G underperforms in the tournament" thing has been blown way out of proportion, in my opinion.

It's simple.

Who wins national championships? 1 seeds. 13 of the last 20 national champs have been 1 seeds.

Who gets 1 seeds? Blue bloods. 29 of the last 80 1 seeds have come from Duke, UNC, Kentucky, or Kansas. Another 16 came from that second tier of UConn, Louisville, Nova, Arizona, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

In that same time frame the B1G has had only 8 1 seeds.

Why? Because the B1G has zero blue bloods.

So why hasn't the B1G won a Natty in over 20 years? It's not style of play, it's not officiating, it's not the BTT. It's because we don't have any blue bloods who consistently get a spin at the wheel as a #1 seed.
This is very very true. I also find it fairly depressing. :(
sad monty python and the holy grail GIF


The good news is we’ve got a golden opportunity to break through and leave: Purdue, Wisconsin & MState in the dust. Who’s with me?
Overcome Randy Savage GIF
 
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#52      
Huh? IU is a blue blood. I know we all hate IU but by definition they are a blue blood.

Furthermore what does being a blue blood have to do with underperforming. You either underperform or you don't and the Big Ten has underperformed in the tournament as a whole. There is no way to deny that and that is not blown out of proportion that's just a fact.
During what years did the Big Ten underperform as a whole, and why is it a "fact" as you say? I took some pretty decent time arguing against that narrative for the last two seasons. The Big Ten obviously underperformed in 2021, but it OVER-performed in the Tournament before that (2019).

Personally, I am not willing to gobble down the national media's spoon-fed assertion that the Big Ten is always "overrated" when we aren't even rated highly in the first place!!!!
 
#53      
There are three different factors here.

1. The problem from a decade or so ago where the Big Ten played (and refereed) a style of basketball in conference that was so different from the way games were called in the tournament that there was a real March translation problem. That was true at the time, but thankfully has been fixed and isn't really a concern anymore.

2. The bizarre reality that no Big Ten team has won it all since 2000. It's essentially just a piece of trivia, down to little more than bad luck. SIX different schools have lost the title game since then (Indiana 2002, Illinois 2005, Ohio State 2007, Michigan State 2009, Michigan 2013, Wisconsin 2015, Michigan again 2018).

3. The last 3 years we've had some bad upsets and bad bids-to-second weekends ratios after having what seemed to be very strong conference seasons.

It all just kind of blends together into a "the B1G stinks in the tourney" narrative. It's not entirely fair, but there's only one way to shut it up.
I think #2 is REALLY underrated, and I am not sure why our conference's OWN FANS are so willing to ignore it. Does anyone seriously think the 2005 Illini just simply "weren't good enough" to win a National Championship? Or 2007 Ohio State? Both of those teams ran into generationally great teams in the Title game. Not all seasons are created equally, and it would take a seriously self-hating attitude toward the conference to act like there has not been some bad luck involved. It certainly doesn't explain the NC drought entirely, but to jump from "We've lost the NC Game 7 times since 2000" to "We suck!" is crazy.

I'll throw another annoying thing out there ... you know why literally nobody talks about the Pac-12's NC drought that is 3 years longer than the Big Ten's even though they have ~Blue Blood~ UCLA and a perennially competitive Arizona?? Because the Big Ten has had a SERIOUS chance to win it all multiple times, and it has not been 1-2 programs carrying the conference to the Final Four.

EDIT: Lastly, I will die on this hill ... define "Blue Blood" however you'd like (I personally agree that it needs to have a historical component that actually even excludes the likes of Villanova or UConn), but whatever Indiana is, Louisville is. There are 7 Blue Bloods (UK, UNC, KU, Duke, UCLA, IU, UL) or there are 5 (excluding IU and UL).
 
#55      
I attached links to non-UCLA site. Doesn't matter where it came from. It matters what it says and what it says is that IU is a blue blood. They will always be one now, 10 years from now, 100 years from now. You don't lose your blue blood status. 'Hey UCLA you won 11 national titles but since you haven't won one in almost 30 year you are no longer a blue blood, Sorry'. That's not the definition and that's not how it works. You can disagree all you want you will never be correct.
Your own citations do not support your position. What an A+ troll job, hats off to you and your unyielding wisdom.

Your SI article:
1708463135499.png
1708463169177.png


Your Kentucky-based article - I refute it with the same thing I said about UCLA. Yes it is exactly "what have you done for me lately", with the timeline of 'lately' open for debate.

Your NCAA article lists about 30 different teams as blue bloods over its length, here's a snip from the early 50s - want to tell how Murray State has never lost its blue blood status? I mean, they were christened by the AP so this must be official, right?
1708463356483.png


Unfortunately my work blocks the MGMBet site, because I am sure I could find another example there of your own citations refuting your premise.
 
#57      
Are we really doing blue blood discourse in the Year of Our Lord 2024?
On this note, fine ... let's call Indiana a Blue Blood! Does this do ANYTHING but further stoke the delusional nature of their fan base? Lol, who cares? In our current environment, I am so incredibly skeptical that Indiana (a "Blue Blood") has an easier time maintaining a winning program than an Illinois (a "good-not-elite" program historically). Both have the fan support, facilities, resources, recruiting footprint, etc. to win big, and a skilled recruiter at Illinois will not be automatically at a disadvantage when recruiting against IU because Bob Knight won there 40 years ago.
 
#58      
I attached links to non-UCLA site. Doesn't matter where it came from. It matters what it says and what it says is that IU is a blue blood. They will always be one now, 10 years from now, 100 years from now. You don't lose your blue blood status. 'Hey UCLA you won 11 national titles but since you haven't won one in almost 30 year you are no longer a blue blood, Sorry'. That's not the definition and that's not how it works. You can disagree all you want you will never be correct.
Yale football loves you right now.
 
#59      
Lol If you think IU is a blue blood, there's a good chance we won't be able to come to any kind of common ground here. So, agree to disagree.
Indiana is indeed a blue blood, but it’s the blue blood family member who, long ago blew its money on foolish investments and lived well beyond its means. A blue blood in name, but without the family resources.
 
#62      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I'm much more interested to see if and how NIL (and its successor student-athlete payments systems) breaks down the historically successful schools.
I was gonna say, show me the NIL receipts and I'll tell you who the blue bloods are.

(Pretty much the same mechanism that overthrew the European aristocracy where the term "blue blood" comes from now that we mention it, a handful of continent-wide bloodbaths notwithstanding)
 
#63      
Indiana is indeed a blue blood, but it’s the blue blood family member who, long ago blew its money on foolish investments and lived well beyond its means. A blue blood in name, but without the family resources.
But they still sit out on their porch drunk at 11:00 am yelling at everyone who passes by reminding them that they're a Blue Blood. We used to argue back at them, but now it's just kind of sad and we don't even care to say anything back.
 
#64      
But they still sit out on their porch drunk at 11:00 am yelling at everyone who passes by reminding them that they're a Blue Blood. We used to argue back at them, but now it's just kind of sad and we don't even care to say anything back.
Now this I can agree with. I was born and raised in Indiana and my entire family except me is IU fans and I just roll my eyes every time they start talking about their team.
 
#65      
The "B1G underperforms in the tournament" thing has been blown way out of proportion, in my opinion.

It's simple.

Who wins national championships? 1 seeds. 13 of the last 20 national champs have been 1 seeds.

Who gets 1 seeds? Blue bloods. 29 of the last 80 1 seeds have come from Duke, UNC, Kentucky, or Kansas. Another 16 came from that second tier of UConn, Louisville, Nova, Arizona, Gonzaga, and UCLA.

In that same time frame the B1G has had only 8 1 seeds.

Why? Because the B1G has zero blue bloods.

So why hasn't the B1G won a Natty in over 20 years? It's not style of play, it's not officiating, it's not the BTT. It's because we don't have any blue bloods who consistently get a spin at the wheel as a #1 seed.

look at UCONN
1999 1 seed
2004 2 seed
2011 3 seed
2014 7 seed
2023 4 seed

They only won one NC as a 1 seed If you look at us we only have made final fours as a one seed. We have had similar seeds as UCONN but not the post season success

Duke has won as a 1 or 2 seed
KU hasn’t won a NC much and has a win as 6 seed
 
#66      
look at UCONN
1999 1 seed
2004 2 seed
2011 3 seed
2014 7 seed
2023 4 seed

They only won one NC as a 1 seed If you look at us we only have made final fours as a one seed. We have had similar seeds as UCONN but not the post season success

Duke has won as a 1 or 2 seed
KU hasn’t won a NC much and has a win as 6 seed
Picking an outlier is a bad way to win an argument...

NCAA championships by seed:

1 - 24
2 - 5
3 - 4
4 - 2
5 - 0
6 - 1
7 - 1
8 - 1

 
#67      
In my opinion I think the best indicator of tournament success should be based more on the Final Four compared to National Championships

Yes of course National Championships matter more as it shows (most of the time) who the best team was. There has only been 37 programs who have won a national champion, and only 18 of those schools have won it since 1985 when the tournament moved to 64 team bracket and all teams had to play 6 games. (Georgetown won in it 1984 the year before the switch so if you include them then 19 schools)

There are 351 Division 1 basketball programs and 80 power 6 schools currently. So, going off national champion success then we can narrow down the best of the best programs.

The Big Ten since 1985 has had 3 schools win a national championship (Indiana, Michigan, and Michigan St) (Maryland won it as well but wasn't in the Big Ten)

Now taking a look at final four appearances in that same time, the Big Ten has sent 25 teams out of a possible 144 teams (17.3% of the time)

Since 2000 the Big Ten has sent 16 teams out of a possible 88 teams (18.2% of the time). This is also the second most to the ACC 18 teams since 2000.
"https://collegesportswire.usatoday....-big-east-since-2000-mens-college-basketball/"

I agree championships should matter.......but when you take a look at final fours the Big Ten shows that the "lack of tournament success" is only for the final game which only 18 programs in the past 37 years have won
 
#68      
Picking an outlier is a bad way to win an argument...

NCAA championships by seed:

1 - 24
2 - 5
3 - 4
4 - 2
5 - 0
6 - 1
7 - 1
8 - 1

Out of the 11 non 1 seed NC 4 have been UCONN. I don’t disagree being a 1 increases your chances unless you are UCONN
 
#69      
#71      
Don’t like this spot. Don’t want to face Houston.

View attachment 31305


Not bad. Only really wary of Houston there, maybe a little Alabama. Potential for rematches with FAU and Marquette. Would love FAU to take care of Houston. Gonzaga looks really weird that far down the bracket.
 
#72      

GrayGhost77

Centennial, CO
#74      
Not bad. Only really wary of Houston there, maybe a little Alabama. Potential for rematches with FAU and Marquette. Would love FAU to take care of Houston. Gonzaga looks really weird that far down the bracket.
Houston and Iowa State would both be a big problem for us unless we have a good game plan for handling their ball pressure and traps. The level of pressure they put on the ball is so much more than other teams can bring and causes problems for teams with good ballhandling.
 
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