While we are good at many things and are adequate at ballhandling, it is not one of our strengths. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just kidding themselves
Bracketology
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
We almost certainly won't get Purdue, and I don't think we want UConn, there are only so many choices.Don’t like this spot. Don’t want to face Houston.
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2024 NCAA Tournament projections: Bracketology and March Madness predictions | FOX Sports
Oregon (Pac-12) and NC State (ACC) each secured a bid, leaving St. John's and Seton Hall on the outside of Mike DeCourcy's latest NCAA Tournament projections.www.foxsports.com
I was agreeing with you, no worries.
Lunardi has us as a 4 seed in the South bracket with us facing Yale in the 1st round in Salt Lake City. The other matchup in that portion of the bracket is Dayton vs. McNeese State.
I think this is the only year where the projected 1 seeds have loses by about 15+ points
PU vs Nebraska
UCONN vs Creighton
Houston vs KU 13 points not a bad loss
Arizona vs Stanford
2 seeds not much better
KU vs Texas Tech
Marquette vs UCONN
Tennessee vs A&M
UNC worst loss is 11 points
Crazy one of night and who knows what will happen
PU vs Nebraska
UCONN vs Creighton
Houston vs KU 13 points not a bad loss
Arizona vs Stanford
2 seeds not much better
KU vs Texas Tech
Marquette vs UCONN
Tennessee vs A&M
UNC worst loss is 11 points
Crazy one of night and who knows what will happen
Utah State takes down SDSU… BYU looking to hold off Baylor … both good for us.
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
NET Rankings Update
Maryland: 74-->72
Iowa: 67-->62
Minnesota: 78-->76
Michigan St: 20-->24
Wisconsin: 22-->21
Maryland went up even with the loss to Wisconsin, Iowa is slowly moving safely above that 75 ranking, and Minnesota could get us another Q2 game if they keep moving up.
Here's our resume if we win out and if the rankings stay as they are:
Q1: 7-5 (8-5 if Minny moves up)
Q2: 6-1
Q3: 7-0 (6-0 if Minny moves up)
Q4: 5-0
That's looking like a 2 seed or a high 3 seed at the worst.
Maryland: 74-->72
Iowa: 67-->62
Minnesota: 78-->76
Michigan St: 20-->24
Wisconsin: 22-->21
Maryland went up even with the loss to Wisconsin, Iowa is slowly moving safely above that 75 ranking, and Minnesota could get us another Q2 game if they keep moving up.
Here's our resume if we win out and if the rankings stay as they are:
Q1: 7-5 (8-5 if Minny moves up)
Q2: 6-1
Q3: 7-0 (6-0 if Minny moves up)
Q4: 5-0
That's looking like a 2 seed or a high 3 seed at the worst.
Need Rutgers to step it up and stop pooping the bed.
Iowa is probably getting close to the next 4 out part. They play us twice, @ NW, home Penn State. They need to beat Penn State, split with us and beat NW I would think. Win 2 of those and need run BTT.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yep, things can change obviously ... but we are getting some help from around the college hoops world. Getting Maryland, Iowa and Minnesota all in the top 75 (and, of course, going 3-0 vs. Minnesota and Iowa coming up) would do wonders for our resume, at least on paper.
I wish I saw this yesterday before putting my odds spreadsheets together. Would've just used this, haha. That said, looks like my numbers are indeed accurate compared to an engine. My side hand calcs did indeed have Purdue as having an 88% +/- 2% chance of getting the 1 seed for the BTT and us at 11% +/-2%, so good to have some positive feedback when B10 teams still have an average of 5 games remaining. As you can tell, just by looking at chart those 3 to 13 seed odds spread is why I don't start the hand calls until we're about 3 games out- all the possibilities when you include tiebreakers of unplayed games gets really statistically intensive
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
People have repeatedly said the Big Ten is "down," and I have found my self subjectively agreeing, at least some of the time. However, I really wanted to look at how the major conferences compare in the NET Rankings. So, enjoy:
AVERAGE NET RANKING PER TEAM
Big XII: #47
Big Ten: #60
SEC: #69
ACC: #77
Big East: #79
Pac-12: #83
AVERAGE OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: #8
SEC: #10
Big Ten: #15
Big East: #15
ACC: #20
Pac-12: #31
AVERAGE OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big Ten: #102
Big XII: #107
Pac-12: #134
ACC: #146
Big East: #161
SEC: #165
LIST OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: #1 Houston, #8 Baylor, #11 BYU, #13 Baylor
Big Ten: #2 Purdue, #12 Illinois, #21 Wisconsin, #24 Michigan State
Pac-12: #3 Arizona, #32 Washington State, #42 Colorado, #46 Utah
Big East: #4 UConn, #9 Creighton, #14 Marquette, #34 Villanova
SEC: #5 Alabama, #6 Tennessee, #7 Auburn, #20 Kentucky
ACC: #10 North Carolina, #16 Duke, #26 Wake Forest, #28 Clemson
LIST OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big Ten: #90 Rutgers, #100 Penn State, #102 Indiana, #116 Michigan
Big XII: #73 UCF, #81 Kansas State, #123 Oklahoma State, #149 West Virginia
Pac-12: #108 USC, #119 Cal, #134 Arizona State, #174 Oregon State
ACC: #93 Florida State, #141 Georgia Tech, #153 Notre Dame, #195 Louisville
SEC: #97 Georgia, #124 Arkansas, #148 Missouri, #224 Vanderbilt
Big East: #61 Butler, #64 Seton Hall, #203 Georgetown, #317 DePaul
So ... it's pretty difficult to compare conferences if you ask me. However, these are my personal takeaways:
1. It's probably fair to say the Big XII just IS the best conference. It has the highest average ranking by a significant margin, it has the overall #1 team, it has the highest average for the top 4 and it has the second lowest average for the bottom 4 after the Big Ten. An impressive stat is that every single conference road game would be a Quad 1 opportunity outside of Kansas State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and WVU is the ONLY Quad 3 road game.
2. There IS some merit to the narrative that the Big Ten is more of a "bottomless" gauntlet. The average ranking of the bottom 4 Big Ten teams is the lowest in the country, and every single team (even Michigan) is within a winning streak of the top 100 (i.e., a Quad 2 opponent or better at the BTT). No other conference can say that. The only thing you can knock the Big Ten for (IMO) is that the "top" of the league is a bit down ... and yet we have the #2 ranked team. That narrative rests on Illinois not being a deep Tournament threat, so ... let's prove it wrong.
3. Personally, I am calling my shot now that the SEC is overrated. I think Tennessee is very good, but I am not sold on the others. They have an impressive top 4 (second only to the Big XII), but they have been beating up on the worst bottom 4 in the country.
4. The Big East is a bit of an enigma to me. The top 3 teams are very good. The next 6 teams have a very decent average of #54 to make up the "middle" of the conference. Then the last 2 teams (Georgetown and DePaul) have an average ranking of #260... Say what you'd like about the Big Ten, but there are ZERO days out of our 20 league games where Illinois gets to skate past a Georgetown or DePaul - let alone twice each for 4 easy conference wins.
5. It's kind of amusing how much hate gets tossed at the Big Ten compared to the ACC or Pac-12. The Pac-12 is just objectively bad, but the Big Ten outclasses the ACC in every metric profiled there, yet I don't hear as much about the ACC being "down" because the talking heads can at least rest assured that Duke and North Carolina will be near the top of the standings. And I think that goes back to the Big Ten not having a CLEAR or unanimous Blue Blood. You can call IU or Louisville "Blue Bloods," but you will get some disagreement from some people. Conversely, nobody is going to deny that Duke (ACC), North Carolina (ACC), Kentucky (SEC) or Kansas (Big XII) are Blue Bloods. The "top" of the Big Ten just frankly will rarely look as "sexy" to your average college hoops bandwagon/casual fan compared to those leagues, JMO. And I am fine with that if we finally make some deep runs again!
AVERAGE NET RANKING PER TEAM
Big XII: #47
Big Ten: #60
SEC: #69
ACC: #77
Big East: #79
Pac-12: #83
AVERAGE OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: #8
SEC: #10
Big Ten: #15
Big East: #15
ACC: #20
Pac-12: #31
AVERAGE OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big Ten: #102
Big XII: #107
Pac-12: #134
ACC: #146
Big East: #161
SEC: #165
LIST OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: #1 Houston, #8 Baylor, #11 BYU, #13 Baylor
Big Ten: #2 Purdue, #12 Illinois, #21 Wisconsin, #24 Michigan State
Pac-12: #3 Arizona, #32 Washington State, #42 Colorado, #46 Utah
Big East: #4 UConn, #9 Creighton, #14 Marquette, #34 Villanova
SEC: #5 Alabama, #6 Tennessee, #7 Auburn, #20 Kentucky
ACC: #10 North Carolina, #16 Duke, #26 Wake Forest, #28 Clemson
LIST OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big Ten: #90 Rutgers, #100 Penn State, #102 Indiana, #116 Michigan
Big XII: #73 UCF, #81 Kansas State, #123 Oklahoma State, #149 West Virginia
Pac-12: #108 USC, #119 Cal, #134 Arizona State, #174 Oregon State
ACC: #93 Florida State, #141 Georgia Tech, #153 Notre Dame, #195 Louisville
SEC: #97 Georgia, #124 Arkansas, #148 Missouri, #224 Vanderbilt
Big East: #61 Butler, #64 Seton Hall, #203 Georgetown, #317 DePaul
So ... it's pretty difficult to compare conferences if you ask me. However, these are my personal takeaways:
1. It's probably fair to say the Big XII just IS the best conference. It has the highest average ranking by a significant margin, it has the overall #1 team, it has the highest average for the top 4 and it has the second lowest average for the bottom 4 after the Big Ten. An impressive stat is that every single conference road game would be a Quad 1 opportunity outside of Kansas State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and WVU is the ONLY Quad 3 road game.
2. There IS some merit to the narrative that the Big Ten is more of a "bottomless" gauntlet. The average ranking of the bottom 4 Big Ten teams is the lowest in the country, and every single team (even Michigan) is within a winning streak of the top 100 (i.e., a Quad 2 opponent or better at the BTT). No other conference can say that. The only thing you can knock the Big Ten for (IMO) is that the "top" of the league is a bit down ... and yet we have the #2 ranked team. That narrative rests on Illinois not being a deep Tournament threat, so ... let's prove it wrong.
3. Personally, I am calling my shot now that the SEC is overrated. I think Tennessee is very good, but I am not sold on the others. They have an impressive top 4 (second only to the Big XII), but they have been beating up on the worst bottom 4 in the country.
4. The Big East is a bit of an enigma to me. The top 3 teams are very good. The next 6 teams have a very decent average of #54 to make up the "middle" of the conference. Then the last 2 teams (Georgetown and DePaul) have an average ranking of #260... Say what you'd like about the Big Ten, but there are ZERO days out of our 20 league games where Illinois gets to skate past a Georgetown or DePaul - let alone twice each for 4 easy conference wins.
5. It's kind of amusing how much hate gets tossed at the Big Ten compared to the ACC or Pac-12. The Pac-12 is just objectively bad, but the Big Ten outclasses the ACC in every metric profiled there, yet I don't hear as much about the ACC being "down" because the talking heads can at least rest assured that Duke and North Carolina will be near the top of the standings. And I think that goes back to the Big Ten not having a CLEAR or unanimous Blue Blood. You can call IU or Louisville "Blue Bloods," but you will get some disagreement from some people. Conversely, nobody is going to deny that Duke (ACC), North Carolina (ACC), Kentucky (SEC) or Kansas (Big XII) are Blue Bloods. The "top" of the Big Ten just frankly will rarely look as "sexy" to your average college hoops bandwagon/casual fan compared to those leagues, JMO. And I am fine with that if we finally make some deep runs again!
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Illinicpa14
- Chicago
There also are likely no bad losses now because if we were to lose to minny - they will shoot up the rankings…but let’s not lose to them
IIRC, the committee also likes to avoid regular season rematches, so if Tennessee or Marquette manage to get the 1, then it’ll be 2/2 that we get UConn or Houston. The only solution? Keep winning and get a 3!
That only applies to the first couple of rounds and it’s a “suggestion” and not mandatory. But I agree-let’s keep winning and get a 3 and maybe even a 2 seed!
Rematches are only avoided in the first round. If teams played twice in the regular season they avoid a rematch until the third round (sweet 16), and if teams played 3 times in the regular season, they avoid a rematch until the fourth round (Elite 8).
EDIT: But yes, the best way to avoid a 1 seed in the sweet 16 is to get a 3 seed.
How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness
The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.
www.ncaa.com
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I was old enough to remember our 2001 to 2006 glory years, but I honestly enjoyed them as more of a kid. I only really remember being that into bracketology by circa 2009 and 2010 (i.e., my last two years of high school). What were people's reactions to the draws we got in 2001 to 2006 at the time? Or did people just not analyze it as much back then? Here are the hypothetical "chalk" paths we would have had on Selection Sunday in each year for reference, in case it helps jog somebody's memory (actual opponents in italics)!!
2001: #1 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #16 Northwestern State in Dayton, OH
Second Round: vs. #8 Tennessee/#9 Charlotte in Dayton, OH
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #4 Kansas/#5 Syracuse in San Antonio, TX
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Arizona/#3 Ole Miss in San Antonio, TX
--- Illini lose in Elite Eight ---
2002: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 San Diego State in Chicago, IL
Second Round: vs. #5 Florida/#12 Creighton in Chicago, IL
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Kansas in Madison, WI
--- Illini lose in Sweet Sixteen ---
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Oregon/#3 Mississippi State in Madison, WI
2003: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 Western Kentucky in Indianapolis, IN
Second Round: vs. #5 Notre Dame/#12 UW-Milwaukee in Indianapolis, IN
--- Illini lose in Second Round ---
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Arizona in Anaheim, CA
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Kansas/#3 Duke in Anaheim, CA
2004: #5 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #12 Murray State in Columbus, OH
Second Round: vs. #4 Cincinnati/#14 East Tennessee State in Columbus, OH
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Duke in Atlanta, GA
--- Illini lose in Sweet Sixteen ---
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Mississippi State/#3 Texas in Atlanta, GA
2005: #1 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #16 Fairleigh Dickinson in Indianapolis, IN
Second Round: vs. #8 Texas/#9 Nevada in Indianapolis, IN
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #4 Boston College/#5 Alabama/#12 UW-Milwaukee in Rosemont, IL
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Oklahoma State/#3 Arizona in Rosemont, IL
--- Illini go on to the Final Four and National Championship Game in St. Louis, MO ---
2006: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 Air Force in San Diego, CA
Second Round: vs. #5 Washington/#12 Utah State in San Diego, CA
--- Illini lose in Second Round ---
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 UConn in Washington, DC
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Tennessee/#3 North Carolina in Washington, DC
Obviously, 2005 was a dream if for no other reason than the perfect geographies! However, I have to imagine people were pretty excited with our 2002 draw with the first two games at the United Center and having just come off of an Elite Eight the year before. Additionally, we would get a rematch with Kansas as the #1 seed relatively close to home, and we had just beat them in the Sweet Sixteen the year before. And I cannot imagine anyone was that scared of #2 seed Oregon or #3 seed Mississippi State if we managed to get past KU.
2001: #1 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #16 Northwestern State in Dayton, OH
Second Round: vs. #8 Tennessee/#9 Charlotte in Dayton, OH
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #4 Kansas/#5 Syracuse in San Antonio, TX
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Arizona/#3 Ole Miss in San Antonio, TX
--- Illini lose in Elite Eight ---
2002: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 San Diego State in Chicago, IL
Second Round: vs. #5 Florida/#12 Creighton in Chicago, IL
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Kansas in Madison, WI
--- Illini lose in Sweet Sixteen ---
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Oregon/#3 Mississippi State in Madison, WI
2003: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 Western Kentucky in Indianapolis, IN
Second Round: vs. #5 Notre Dame/#12 UW-Milwaukee in Indianapolis, IN
--- Illini lose in Second Round ---
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Arizona in Anaheim, CA
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Kansas/#3 Duke in Anaheim, CA
2004: #5 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #12 Murray State in Columbus, OH
Second Round: vs. #4 Cincinnati/#14 East Tennessee State in Columbus, OH
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 Duke in Atlanta, GA
--- Illini lose in Sweet Sixteen ---
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Mississippi State/#3 Texas in Atlanta, GA
2005: #1 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #16 Fairleigh Dickinson in Indianapolis, IN
Second Round: vs. #8 Texas/#9 Nevada in Indianapolis, IN
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #4 Boston College/#5 Alabama/#12 UW-Milwaukee in Rosemont, IL
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Oklahoma State/#3 Arizona in Rosemont, IL
--- Illini go on to the Final Four and National Championship Game in St. Louis, MO ---
2006: #4 Seed Illinois
First Round: vs. #13 Air Force in San Diego, CA
Second Round: vs. #5 Washington/#12 Utah State in San Diego, CA
--- Illini lose in Second Round ---
Sweet Sixteen: vs. #1 UConn in Washington, DC
Elite Eight: vs. #2 Tennessee/#3 North Carolina in Washington, DC
Obviously, 2005 was a dream if for no other reason than the perfect geographies! However, I have to imagine people were pretty excited with our 2002 draw with the first two games at the United Center and having just come off of an Elite Eight the year before. Additionally, we would get a rematch with Kansas as the #1 seed relatively close to home, and we had just beat them in the Sweet Sixteen the year before. And I cannot imagine anyone was that scared of #2 seed Oregon or #3 seed Mississippi State if we managed to get past KU.
Let's take a look at how the bracket is shaping up for Selection Sunday, via the T-Ranketology tool: https://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php?
As of now, assuming the rest of the season plays out as expected, and Illinois wins 4 of 6 to close out the season, losing at Wisconsin and vs Purdue, it projects Illinois to finish 12th, as the last 3 seed, just ahead of Iowa State and Baylor.
Using another tool, the Teamcast: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Illinois&year=2024
We can see how things would play out if things go differently.
If Illinois beats Wisconsin or Purdue or both, they bump themselves up to the 2 seed line (Also, if you go back and rewrite history, making Illinois win at MSU, they also end up on the 2 seed line). Their remaining schedule allows them to build the resume they're currently lacking, especially if they can get one of the big games.
Granted, this doesn't include conference tourney results, but there are definitely paths for the Illini to work themselves off the 4-5 line as long as they take care of their own business.
As of now, assuming the rest of the season plays out as expected, and Illinois wins 4 of 6 to close out the season, losing at Wisconsin and vs Purdue, it projects Illinois to finish 12th, as the last 3 seed, just ahead of Iowa State and Baylor.
Using another tool, the Teamcast: https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=Illinois&year=2024
We can see how things would play out if things go differently.
If Illinois beats Wisconsin or Purdue or both, they bump themselves up to the 2 seed line (Also, if you go back and rewrite history, making Illinois win at MSU, they also end up on the 2 seed line). Their remaining schedule allows them to build the resume they're currently lacking, especially if they can get one of the big games.
Granted, this doesn't include conference tourney results, but there are definitely paths for the Illini to work themselves off the 4-5 line as long as they take care of their own business.
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
I've decided that I'm going to track the results of each team in the committee's official Top 16, along with teams that I assumed to be right on the outside based on BracketMatrix. (I'll update it periodically over the next few weeks).
Obviously I can't read the committee's collective mind, but if Illinois goes 2-0 this week, they should be close to the top #4 seed at the very least.
Obviously I can't read the committee's collective mind, but if Illinois goes 2-0 this week, they should be close to the top #4 seed at the very least.
Good stuff! This is super helpful for bracketology obsessives like myself
Fighter, your research and the data you provide never ceases to amaze me...thanks for all of your contributions & Go Illini!
- Bryce H
The fanbase was generally livid with the 5 seed in '04. We won the Big 10 and were ranked 12th heading into Selection Sunday. The underlying metrics for the conference were terrible though. The Big 10 was 6th in conference RPI, even behind Conference USA.
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