Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
At least it allowed the Illini to score an upset in the second round...a rare feat for the Illini
Bracketology
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I remember that second round game vividly. Absolutely throttled a pretty good Cincinnati team.
We were really, really good that year. That Duke team was just better. KenPom had us 13th and funny enough, Duke was 1. The other one seeds were St. Joseph (3), Kentucky (10), and Stanford (12).
And Kentucky and Stanford got bounced in the 2nd round.
That was my senior year.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
That was the only time I've ever gotten all four Final Four teams right in my bracket. Oklahoma State, Duke, Georgia Tech and UConn.
Had Oklahoma State winning it all though. John Lucas III was a monster that year.
That hope is gone for tournament year 2024. Long gone. Can't take this type of loss this late in the year. 4 to 7 at this point. Faith lost.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I think 4-1 with a run to the B1G Champ Game will still have great chance at 3 seed.
But after tonight, this team looks destined for a 5-12 matchup (maybe even 6-11 if the season spirals a bit).
Since January 1, our defense ranks 110th (Torvik). In the last 10 tournaments, here are the teams who advanced to the second weekend with a defense as bad as or worse than ours.
We actually profile pretty similarly to 2023 Miami and 2015 Notre Dame. Both paired their weak defense with elite offense and made a tournament run.
But only 6 out of 160 teams to reach the second weekend in the last 10 tournaments had a defense as bad as ours.
We actually profile pretty similarly to 2023 Miami and 2015 Notre Dame. Both paired their weak defense with elite offense and made a tournament run.
But only 6 out of 160 teams to reach the second weekend in the last 10 tournaments had a defense as bad as ours.
| Year | Team | Seed | AdjD Rank | Tournament Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Princeton | 15 | 110 | Sweet 16 |
| 2023 | Miami | 5 | 109* | Final Four |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts | 15 | 216 | Sweet 16 |
| 2018 | Nevada | 7 | 142 | Sweet 16 |
| 2016 | Notre Dame | 6 | 170 | Elite Eight |
| 2015 | Notre Dame | 3 | 112 | Elite Eight |
5/12 matchup with Indiana state round 1. Robbie “Krutwig” Avila.
Committee will make that happen.
Mother of God.
Committee will make that happen.
Mother of God.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
There is a good chance that Indiana State does not even make tourney. MVC will be a one-bid conference likely represented by either Drake or Indiana State.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Any idea how many of the 680 tournament teams in that 10-year timespan had defenses as bad as ours (lately) with offenses as good? 6 out of 160 is one way to slice it, but doesn't give the whole picture - maybe there were only 12 teams with adjD rank > 100 and adjO rank < 10. In that (hypothetical) case, half of them made the 2nd weekend, which is above average.
Might be a FOTN question. I'm not ready to commit to that level of research lol
I can tell you last year 21 teams made the tournament with a defense worse than ours.
15 of those teams were eliminated in the first round.
4 were eliminated in the second round.
1 in the S16.
1 in the Final Four.
Two of those 21 also had top 10 offenses. Miami (Final Four) and Iowa (first round).
There have only been 14 teams in the last 10 tournaments to make the field with a top 10 offense and a sub 100 defense. Of those teams, Miami last year and 2015 Notre Dame are the only two to advance to the second weekend.
Also, I should point out the comparison I'm doing isn't 100% apples to apples. I'm comparing our defensive ranking over a specific 7.5 week period to other teams' ranking over their full season. So, take that FWIW. I just don't see much value in looking at what happened before Jan 1. We've changed so much since then.
All of that analysis is very much appreciated.
We'll never be able to find out but I wonder if any team has ever had that kind of fall/drop in defensive efficiency from the non-conference portion of their schedule to the conference portion, without a major change in personnel (e.g. injury).
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
I'd take that TBH.
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
akron and clemson i'd take,
but not worthy of a 4 seed right now, 19-7, projected 22-9, (my projection) then 23-10, we shall see
Yes we are.
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
I mean sure - the metrics say we are , and heck yes I’ll take a 4 , But who have we beaten ?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Well, as of today, we are 8-7 in Q1/Q2 games with no Q3/Q4 losses. That‘s a 4 seed, but still have to finish the year strong to lock that in.
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
So pick any of those 8 wins , and that’s our ceiling this year
MSU , NW , FAU ?
I’m not disagreeing w you , I’m still hurting from the psu failure
None of this matters right now. The only thing that does is we are currently sitting on the 4 line with a chance to improve. Are you really going to care who we beat if we are still a 4 seed or better? I hope not.
SampsonRelpenk
- Edwardsville, IL
The 4 seed the year before was also a perceived slap in the face. I remember on Selection Sunday Clark Kellogg predicted the protected seeds and he had us as a 2 seed.
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