Bracketology

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#55      

Icy veins

I
Icy veins
Alright here’s my bracket-obsessive take - we need to root for Tennessee to win and North Carolina to lose in their respective conference tourneys. Right now, bracketologists are split between Tennessee and North Carolina are the last 1 seed. I’d argue that that we’d much rather play either of them in the S16 than Houston or UConn based on Kenpom rankings. If Tennessee has a good SEC tourney run and solidifies their 1 seed standing, NONE of the other projected 4 seeds (Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn) can play in Tennessee’s bracket because they’re in the same conference. So we’d get the most favorable 4 seed regardless of our BTT outcome. If North Carolina gets the 1 seed, any of the 4 seeds can play them in the S16 and we’d likely need to jump Kentucky to make sure we’re the first ranked 4 seed to avoid Houston/UConn.
 
#58      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
Icy veins said:
Alright here’s my bracket-obsessive take - we need to root for Tennessee to win and North Carolina to lose in their respective conference tourneys. Right now, bracketologists are split between Tennessee and North Carolina are the last 1 seed. I’d argue that that we’d much rather play either of them in the S16 than Houston or UConn based on Kenpom rankings. If Tennessee has a good SEC tourney run and solidifies their 1 seed standing, NONE of the other projected 4 seeds (Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn) can play in Tennessee’s bracket because they’re in the same conference. So we’d get the most favorable 4 seed regardless of our BTT outcome. If North Carolina gets the 1 seed, any of the 4 seeds can play them in the S16 and we’d likely need to jump Kentucky to make sure we’re the first ranked 4 seed to avoid Houston/UConn.
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This is a really good take. At this point I don't see us jumping Kentucky. They're rolling right now.
 
#60      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
BackThatPassUp said:
I think KU is the one that is overrated by the bracket experts. The metrics (NET included) and pollsters both have them in the 5 seed range yet they've appeared to be cemented as a 3 in the brackets.
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And now if they get hammered in their first B12 tournament game, the committee will take that (HD and McCullars) into consideration and still seed them #3.
 
#61      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
Icy veins said:
Alright here’s my bracket-obsessive take - we need to root for Tennessee to win and North Carolina to lose in their respective conference tourneys. Right now, bracketologists are split between Tennessee and North Carolina are the last 1 seed. I’d argue that that we’d much rather play either of them in the S16 than Houston or UConn based on Kenpom rankings. If Tennessee has a good SEC tourney run and solidifies their 1 seed standing, NONE of the other projected 4 seeds (Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn) can play in Tennessee’s bracket because they’re in the same conference. So we’d get the most favorable 4 seed regardless of our BTT outcome. If North Carolina gets the 1 seed, any of the 4 seeds can play them in the S16 and we’d likely need to jump Kentucky to make sure we’re the first ranked 4 seed to avoid Houston/UConn.
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I will just be very happy when The Fighting Illini are playing against any #1 seed. I don't care which one it is. I'll take it.
 
#63      

BillyBob1

BillyBob1
Champaign
BillyBob1
Thaillini22 said:
I got confused for a moment too, because the conference breakdown says 5 B10 teams, but there are 6.
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He’s had it that way for a couple days. I was trying to figure out who dropped out. His mistake.
 
#64      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
Icy veins said:
Alright here’s my bracket-obsessive take - we need to root for Tennessee to win and North Carolina to lose in their respective conference tourneys. Right now, bracketologists are split between Tennessee and North Carolina are the last 1 seed. I’d argue that that we’d much rather play either of them in the S16 than Houston or UConn based on Kenpom rankings. If Tennessee has a good SEC tourney run and solidifies their 1 seed standing, NONE of the other projected 4 seeds (Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn) can play in Tennessee’s bracket because they’re in the same conference. So we’d get the most favorable 4 seed regardless of our BTT outcome. If North Carolina gets the 1 seed, any of the 4 seeds can play them in the S16 and we’d likely need to jump Kentucky to make sure we’re the first ranked 4 seed to avoid Houston/UConn.
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I like the way you think. It seems like this is not a hard and fast rule (see quote below; source) but generally only broken if the bracket absolutely can't work otherwise. If we jumped up to the 3, we'd probably be the last 3 and end up in the West Region with the last 1 as well.

Based on the bracket matrix, here's how I think the S-curve would shake out. Other than avoiding conference matchups, the only change is to swap KY and Alabama for competitive balance; otherwise, the South and East would differ by 5 S-curve "points" in the 1-4 seed lines, which is at the edge of what the committee sees as acceptable. The 1-3s in the South are extra good (because Creighton can't go in the Midwest [Marquette] or East [UConn]), so they need a worse 4 to compensate.

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NCAA RULES said:
Conference teams shall not meet prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference. If the committee is unable to reconcile the bracket after exhausting all reasonable options, it has the flexibility to waive this principle to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the second round.
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#68      

madillini4

madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
Millywaukee
madillini4
727ill said:
It's going to be so key to stay as the top overall #4 seed. Staying out of Spokane is huge.
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CBS right now has us as a 4 seed facing 13 seed Samford. Samford is very good.
 
#69      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
Fighter of the Nightman said:
The Bracket Matrix as of yesterday (i.e., did not factor in the Quad 1 Iowa win) had us as the third #4 seed. Here are the conference tournament matchups for our fellow competitors for the #3 and #4 seed spots (in order of the current seed line on that site and then using NET Rankings).

#3 SEEDS
#14 Baylor - vs. #18 Kansas (Q1), #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).

#11 Creighton - vs. #64 Providence (Q2) or #198 Georgetown (Q3). Then likely vs. #13 Marquette (Q1).

#10 Duke - vs. #79 Syracuse (Q2), #80 NC State (Q2) or #214 Louisville (Q4). Then likely vs. #51 Virginia (Q2).

#18 Kansas - vs. #41 Cincinnati (Q1) or #158 West Virginia (Q3). Then vs. #14 Baylor (Q1). Then likely vs. #9 Iowa State (Q1).

#4 SEEDS
#19 Kentucky - vs. #46 Texas A&M (Q1) or #90 Ole Miss (Q2). Then likely vs. #8 Alabama (Q1).

#8 Alabama - vs. #35 Florida (Q1), #101 Georgia (Q3) or #156 Missouri (Q3). Then likely vs. #8 Kentucky (Q1).

#15 ILLINOIS - vs. #60 Iowa (Q2) or #54 Ohio State (Q2). Then likely vs. #37 Nebraska (Q1).

#6 Auburn - vs. #49 South Carolina (Q1), #109 Arkansas (Q3) or #203 Vanderbilt (Q4). Then likely vs. #5 Tennessee (Q1).

This is why the "screw the rest of the conference!" attitude some fans have is very misguided. Sure, if you're 2005 Illinois or this year's Purdue and you are just winning every game, strength of the conference will not matter. However, if you are having a #3/4 seed-type season, the strength or weakness of the conference is important. Some of these schools have multiple Q1 opportunities coming up if they keep winning.

Anyway, I think it will be more fun for me to watch everything if I have a rooting interest going in, and I imagine others agree! So this is what we should pull for:

1. Early round upsets of all kinds. Using KU as an example, a loss to Cincinnati (Q1) COULD allow us to jump them if we win two in the BTT ... but a KU loss to West Virginia (Q3), however unlikely, would definitely do the trick! Additionally, even if KU didn't beat WVU, the win would be relatively meaningless.

2. Duke and Kansas to specifically lose. They seem the most realistic to jump, and the losses they'd incur look worse than what the SEC teams would have.
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I also wouldn't mind seeing Auburn fall. Just because.
 
#70      

727ill

7
727ill
madillini4 said:
CBS right now has us as a 4 seed facing 13 seed Samford. Samford is very good.
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Unlikely we get Samford if we stay as the #13 overall seed. You would likely get the worst 13 which is Vermont as of now.
 
#71      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
madillini4 said:
CBS right now has us as a 4 seed facing 13 seed Samford. Samford is very good.
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Samford is fine. They're on par with a Rutgers or Indiana - no cakewalk. At the same time, they're not noticeably better or worse than the other projected 13 seeds. McNeese and UC Irvine look better.
 
#72      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
727ill said:
Unlikely we get Samford if we stay as the #13 overall seed. You would likely get the worst 13 which is Vermont as of now.
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Once the committee gets that far down in the bracket I'm not sure how true this is. It would be the logical pairing in a perfect S-curve but I don't know that this makes it the "likely" matchup.
 
#74      

FreshlySqueezed

FreshlySqueezed
FreshlySqueezed
The Athletic currently has us as the 14th overall seed (Kentucky is ahead of us at 13) but has BYU as a 4 and Auburn a 5, and BYU gets the Tennessee region.

We're essentially rooting again Kansas, Duke, and Kentucky. That's pretty easy to do. The Athletic has them as 11, 12, and 13 overall.
 
#75      

Chukwuwumba

Chukwuwumba
Chukwuwumba
Icy veins said:
Alright here’s my bracket-obsessive take - we need to root for Tennessee to win and North Carolina to lose in their respective conference tourneys. Right now, bracketologists are split between Tennessee and North Carolina are the last 1 seed. I’d argue that that we’d much rather play either of them in the S16 than Houston or UConn based on Kenpom rankings. If Tennessee has a good SEC tourney run and solidifies their 1 seed standing, NONE of the other projected 4 seeds (Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn) can play in Tennessee’s bracket because they’re in the same conference. So we’d get the most favorable 4 seed regardless of our BTT outcome. If North Carolina gets the 1 seed, any of the 4 seeds can play them in the S16 and we’d likely need to jump Kentucky to make sure we’re the first ranked 4 seed to avoid Houston/UConn.
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I wonder how the big12 will shake out as well. A lot of teams in the 1-2-3 lines, wonder if they have to move them up/down
 
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