Agreed, but Samford is also absolutely very good and an upset special for someone.
Bracketology
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
That is very subjective at best. From the eyeball test, sure, they look very good (but that can be the result of the competition they faced). The analytics suggest that they are much more of a team like Maryland (who did beat Illinois). Samford is 2-2 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, and have played 28 Quad 3/Quad 4 games. However, many teams (Illini included) are capable of getting tripped up in an early round matchup to teams like this, and we see it year in and year out. I am simply not ready to claim that Samford is very good. The analytics do not back this up.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
McNeeses pieces.
I think we're going to have pretty limited choice in location based on pod as the sites that will all be filled by the time we're up are:
Indy
Memphis
Charlotte
Omaha
Salt Lake City
I think that leaves 2 spots in Spokane, 1 in Brooklyn, and 1 in Pitt or SLC. If we're the top 4 seed or make it to a 3, we could get Pitt if it's indeed open and they fill SLC, otherwise I think our options are pretty much Brooklyn or Spokane. Just too many teams from the Midwest and South, basically nobody out west, and only 1 from the northeast., so the 4 line will basically only have those options available to them. In any case as far as I see it, we aren't going to have much of a choice with Spokane being the likely location if we don't get to the BTT Finals
What’s our NET in games with Shannon only?
Is there a way to isolate that? Not necessarily for our seeding because I understand the whole season must be accounted for, but to help us see how we truly fit into the field at full strength.
Is there a way to isolate that? Not necessarily for our seeding because I understand the whole season must be accounted for, but to help us see how we truly fit into the field at full strength.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Since the NCAA does not release their formulas or data, it is impossible to do any sort of manipulation. We can only point to the NET released daily.
NET on following days:
12/28 (day of TSJ suspension) -- 10
1/19 (TSJ reinstatement) -- 13
3/12 (current) -- 15
In general, there is not too much change. Illinois has always been in the 10-15 range NET.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, I am holding out hope the Big Ten flips the (recent) script this year and surprises in March. It's easy to forget now, but everyone said the Big Ten sucked in 2005 (only three ranked teams and five teams in the Tournament), and other than Illinois (in a similar spot as this year's Purdue) everybody's seed suffered because of it. We then had 3 teams in the Elite Eight and 2 in the Final Four.
How the committee picks locations is one thing I haven't understood yet..why do you say for example that Memphis would be filled?
On another note, Spokane needs to be banned from ever hosting tourney games again. There are no nonstop flights there even from many cities on the west coast.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Teams get their "best" locations in order of the overall seeding.
Purdue - Indy 1
UConn - Brooklyn 1
Houston - Memphis 1
Tennessee - Memphis 2 (possibly Charlotte 1?)
UNC - Charlotte 1
Arizona - Salt Lake City 1
Marquette - Indy 2
Iowa State - Omaha 1
Creighton - Pittsburgh 1 (possibly SLC 2? possibly Memphis 2 if still available? Can't be home court Omaha)
Baylor - Memphis 2 if still available, otherwise Charlotte 2 or Omaha 2?
Duke - Charlotte 2 if available, otherwise Pittsburgh 2
Kansas - Probably Omaha 2
Kentucky - Filling the other of Pittsburgh 2/Charlotte 2 not occupied by Duke
That's everyone ahead of us in Bracket Matrix.
I feel like there's a good chance BYU is given a 4 to make SLC work as a venue (slot them against SDSU as a 5 and it's good for tickets, travel, and not screwing anybody location-wise). But then two of the other 4 seeds are getting sent to Spokane. And the extra spot looks like it's probably Brooklyn.
Makes perfect sense, thank you!
Charlotte is 1 for Tennessee
. Whoops wrong site. Memphis is taking Houston and beyond that somewhat up for grabs but still unlikely. Creighton going there over us because they can’t play in Omaha.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Obviously there can still be some movement on the seed list, but it sure looks like us being a 4 in Spokane with either South Carolina or *gulp* Auburn as the 5 is a pretty strong probability, based on the likely remaining sites, how much the BYU/SDSU pair helps everything else fit, and the need to not pair SEC teams against each other as 4/5's.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Updated NET Rankings by Conference:
AVERAGE PER TEAM
Big XII: 45.57
Big Ten: 60.43
SEC: 68.57
ACC: 75.93
Big East: 79.45
Pac-12: 82.92
AVERAGE OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: 9.00
SEC: 9.50
Big East: 15.00
Big Ten: 15.75
ACC: 20.25
Pac-12: 32.00
AVERAGE OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: 101.00
Big Ten: 104.00
Pac-12: 131.50
ACC: 140.25
SEC: 155.33
Big East: 162.50
So again ... if people want to sing the praises of the Big XII as the clear-cut best conference in the land, I doubt many will put up a fight. It's a very good basketball conference this year and has been for a while. However, the Big Ten is in no way "down" compared to the rest of the country, at least when you judge the conference in its entirety.
The SEC has a particularly strong top, but the bottom teams are worse than the ACC and Pac-12 and approaching the likes of Georgetown and DePaul?! Conversely, while the Big Ten's top four might be a bit "down," it is still comparable to the Big East, and our bottom four are comparable to the Big XII. This is going to be a "nuanced" opinion no matter what, but you could very easily make an argument that playing your average 20-game Big Ten schedule this year is more difficult than any other league besides the Big XII. And, as another poster mentioned, this is using the NET Rankings where Big Ten teams are very underrated compared to KenPom.
I will eat my words in a couple weeks if we crash and burn, but I personally think people are getting WAY too star-struck by names like Ayo, Johnny Davis and Garza and then being too dismissive of guys like Shannon, Edey, Buie and even our boy Domask. The other metric people are using to show how "down" the conference is, is our lack of teams in the top 25 ... but that is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Nebraska could theoretically be a team worthy of a #24 ranking, but they are literally never going to get it unless they beat Purdue and Illinois and then ALSO never slip up in a hostile road environment. I just don't think the Big Ten is that bad, and I think the perception that it IS that bad is going to cost some teams like Iowa a bid, where I would wager they actually are playing like one of the best 68 teams right now.
AVERAGE PER TEAM
Big XII: 45.57
Big Ten: 60.43
SEC: 68.57
ACC: 75.93
Big East: 79.45
Pac-12: 82.92
AVERAGE OF TOP FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: 9.00
SEC: 9.50
Big East: 15.00
Big Ten: 15.75
ACC: 20.25
Pac-12: 32.00
AVERAGE OF BOTTOM FOUR TEAMS
Big XII: 101.00
Big Ten: 104.00
Pac-12: 131.50
ACC: 140.25
SEC: 155.33
Big East: 162.50
So again ... if people want to sing the praises of the Big XII as the clear-cut best conference in the land, I doubt many will put up a fight. It's a very good basketball conference this year and has been for a while. However, the Big Ten is in no way "down" compared to the rest of the country, at least when you judge the conference in its entirety.
The SEC has a particularly strong top, but the bottom teams are worse than the ACC and Pac-12 and approaching the likes of Georgetown and DePaul?! Conversely, while the Big Ten's top four might be a bit "down," it is still comparable to the Big East, and our bottom four are comparable to the Big XII. This is going to be a "nuanced" opinion no matter what, but you could very easily make an argument that playing your average 20-game Big Ten schedule this year is more difficult than any other league besides the Big XII. And, as another poster mentioned, this is using the NET Rankings where Big Ten teams are very underrated compared to KenPom.
I will eat my words in a couple weeks if we crash and burn, but I personally think people are getting WAY too star-struck by names like Ayo, Johnny Davis and Garza and then being too dismissive of guys like Shannon, Edey, Buie and even our boy Domask. The other metric people are using to show how "down" the conference is, is our lack of teams in the top 25 ... but that is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Nebraska could theoretically be a team worthy of a #24 ranking, but they are literally never going to get it unless they beat Purdue and Illinois and then ALSO never slip up in a hostile road environment. I just don't think the Big Ten is that bad, and I think the perception that it IS that bad is going to cost some teams like Iowa a bid, where I would wager they actually are playing like one of the best 68 teams right now.
Basically the two lowest 4 seeds (aside from BYU) will probably get sent to Spokane right?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Well, if the last 3 teams to allocate are us, Bama and Auburn (as currently shown on Bracket Matrix), they might send us to Spokane rather than Brooklyn because the other two are more "Eastern" schools.
But barring somehow SLC not being available and BYU (or a MWC school) nabbing a 4, there will be two 4 seeds from the Eastern half of the country in Spokane.
The good news about Spokane is that it reduces the chances of our game being during the workday.
But that only happens if we are behind Bama / Auburn in terms of seeding right? If we are higher I'm sure we would be picking Brooklyn.
And like Salt Lake you can go skiing on the off day!
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Well that's the thing. The schools don't pick, the committee just kinda eyeballs it, and none of it is super strictly in overall seed order.
There are also problems avoiding SEC-SEC matchups on the 4/5 line, and they'll want to avoid South Carolina/Clemson too.
And you can't put Utah State as a 5 in SLC or Spokane against an Eastern team, we should absolutely riot if that happens to us.
It's gonna be tricky.
(If you did it strictly based on Bracket Matrix seed order, you get Bama/South Carolina which is a no-no, and Auburn/BYU as a 4-5 in Spokane which ought to be)
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Petition the government to designate first week of tourney Thursday and Friday to be national holidays.
I have personally taken the Thurs/Fri off for the past few years, while others have likely used the "boss button" from the March Madness website while working.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
You can't? I thought the "protected seed" thing only applied to the first-round game. I don't think as a 4 we'd get any such protection in a hypothetical 4/5 matchup - although we should absolutely still riot if it happens.
Edit - here's the exact text (emphasis mine):
And otherwise (bracket clarification mine):
The "the principles" referred to also include this one:
As I read it, this makes me think it's actually more likely that a 4 seed is in SLC would draw a 5-seeded BYU, since that placement for BYU is A) as close to their area of natural interest as possible, and B) doesn't violate any other principle. In other words, a 4 seed couldn't draw a 13-seeded BYU in SLC, but in a 4/5 matchup it's fair game.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It's not a formal rule, but they make some effort not to do that.
But then you run into the opposite problem where you send BYU to Pittsburgh and Clemson to Salt Lake City when that's just wasteful and leaving ticket revenue on the table.
Just eyeballing it, it looks unusually difficult this year.
It would be easier if they stopped always having two Western sites even though never in the history of the tournament have there been enough Western high seeds to justify it.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I do not agree with this. Are you just basing it off of geographic proximity? That is a flawed method, as this line of thinking would have you believe that Illinois would rather play in Indianapolis than Chicago just because it's geographically closer to Champaign. Even so, Charlotte is over 4 hours from Knoxville, so it's not THAT close. I would wager there are infinitely more Tennessee basketball fans within 2 hours of Memphis than there are within 2 hours of Charlotte, and obviously there are more Tennessee fans in Memphis itself than there are in Charlotte.
EDIT: On another thought, other than the First Weekend location of Indianapolis (which we all knew Purdue would probably get way back in November), this is a pretty crappy year for Illini-friendly locations. The Second Weekend locations are Boston, Los Angeles, Dallas or Detroit ... sucks! I of course hope we bring a large crowd wherever we play, but it really makes you realize how storybook our 2005 route through Indianapolis, Chicago and St. Louis was!
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Note one of the quotes in my post above - their guidelines do say "as determined by mileage from campus to the venue" when considering keeping teams as close as possible to their "area of natural interest".
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