Bracketology

21ChampaignSt · Mar 10, 2026

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Found this picture of the last time Illinois played in Indy (2005), and it's even more impressive when you consider we shared the session with Big Blue Nation from Kentucky! I expect a similar dominance of the crowd if we can get St. Louis.

View attachment 48165

I was there..on the floor! (Thanks, Pops)

Earlier that year, I attended the Illini basketball camp where I met all of the players and spent most of my time with Deron, Augie, and a team manager named Matt. When the team walked off the floor, I yelled for Matt and he remembered me from that summer. He took my Dee Brown jersey back to the locker room and had Dee sign it. It still hangs proudly in my basement.

I sat next to a Kentucky fan. After our game, he smirked at me and said something like, "You guys were pretty loud but wait til you hear Kentucky fans."

"You think you'll be louder?"

"Just watch. We don't even need seats at Rupp."

I gotta admit, he was right. They were louder. Crazier. And this was back when AH was what Mackey thinks it is today.

Agree that St. Louis and, God willing, Indy will be painted orange if we happen to find ourselves there.

uofi09 · Mar 10, 2026

Is there any situation, that we get a #1 seed? (On top of winning the BTT, what else would need to happen?)

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

uofi09 said:
Is there any situation, that we get a #1 seed? (On top of winning the BTT, what else would need to happen?)

UConn loss. Houston loss. Florida loss.

mysterio2525 · Mar 10, 2026

uofi09 said:
Is there any situation, that we get a #1 seed? (On top of winning the BTT, what else would need to happen?)

don't think so. we would have to win the btt with a Michigan win and a win against MSU in the final likely (Purdue or Nebraska only other acceptable), Florida, uconn, Houston and Iowa State lose in their first round of tourney, we win big in each of our games to boost our metrics, and the committee put a heavy emphasis on the btt finals which they usually don't... all that would have to happen and I still put it at like 50/50

BryceHopkins · Mar 10, 2026

21ChampaignSt said:
I was there..on the floor! (Thanks, Pops)

Earlier that year, I attended the Illini basketball camp where I met all of the players and spent most of my time with Deron, Augie, and a team manager named Matt. When the team walked off the floor, I yelled for Matt and he remembered me from that summer. He took my Dee Brown jersey back to the locker room and had Dee sign it. It still hangs proudly in my basement.

I sat next to a Kentucky fan. After our game, he smirked at me and said something like, "You guys were pretty loud but wait til you hear Kentucky fans."

"You think you'll be louder?"

"Just watch. We don't even need seats at Rupp."

I gotta admit, he was right. They were louder. Crazier. And this was back when AH was what Mackey thinks it is today.

Agree that St. Louis and, God willing, Indy will be painted orange if we happen to find ourselves there.

I was there too… that Cincy v Kentucky game was a lot of fun… in a street fight sort of way

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

uofi09 said:
Is there any situation, that we get a #1 seed? (On top of winning the BTT, what else would need to happen?)

Fly Illini Fly! said:
UConn loss. Houston loss. Florida loss.

Before everyone starts claiming we still wouldn’t have a chance:

FLA currently has 2 more losses than UConn AND UConn has the head to head over FLA. However, FLA is still projected to be seeded higher due to the overall body of work (and far better metrics).

If IL wins the BTT (which will include a win over Michigan) and UConn loses to say, St John’s… Illinois will be seeded higher. That will be a 2 loss difference (just like Florida and UConn currently) and Illinois would clearly have the better body of work.

Florida would have to not win the SEC tourney and suffer a loss to say, Tennessee. Both teams would then finish with 7 Ls — Illinois far and away having the better wins (and overall resume).

IlliniFan42 · Mar 10, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Before everyone starts claiming we still wouldn’t have a chance:

FLA currently has 2 more losses than UConn AND UConn has the head to head over FLA. However, FLA is still projected to be seeded higher due to the overall body of work (and far better metrics).

If IL wins the BTT (which will include a win over Michigan) and UConn loses to say, St John’s… Illinois will be seeded higher. That will be a 2 loss difference (just like Florida and UConn currently) and Illinois would clearly have the better body of work.

Florida would have to not win the SEC tourney and suffer a loss to say, Tennessee. Both teams would then finish with 7 Ls — Illinois far and away having the better wins (and overall resume).

If Illinois wins the Big Ten Tournament and Florida loses their first game, Florida would still get the 1-seed over Illinois if it came down to it.

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

IlliniFan42 said:
If Illinois wins the Big Ten Tournament and Florida loses their first game, Florida would still get the 1-seed over Illinois if it came down to it.

Nope. Actually, won’t even be that close.

As it currently stands, Illinois has 6 Q1A wins. Florida has 3. That gap would only increase by 2.

FLA best wins: @Kentucky, @Vandy, home Alabama, home Arkansas, home Tennessee

IL best wins if we win the BTT: @Purdue, @Nebraksa, @Iowa, home Texas Tech, nuetral Tennessee, neutral Michigan, neutral Michigan State (assuming they come out of the bottom portion).

Both teams would finish with 7 Ls.

Piotyr · Mar 10, 2026

LIU wins the NEC tourney, though they already had the auto bid locked up. They just also get the trophy.

TrahNeb · Mar 10, 2026

uofi09 said:
Is there any situation, that we get a #1 seed? (On top of winning the BTT, what else would need to happen?)

Seems unlikely given our Q1 splits (7-7) when compared to project 1 seeds, Duke (15-2), Michigan (14-2), Arizona (15-2), and Florida (11-5). Maybe if Florida takes a horrible round 1 loss in the SEC tourney and we boat race Wisconsin and Michigan (obviously near zero probability).

Piotyr · Mar 10, 2026

Wright State overcomes a 12-point second half deficit to win the Horizon despite some horrific FT shooting down the stretch. They'll be a low 14 or high 15 seed (aka a prime possibility for an Illinois first round opponent).

TrahNeb · Mar 10, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Nope. Actually, not even chance.

As it currently stands, Illinois has 6 Q1A wins. Florida has 3. That gap would only increase.

FLA best wins: @Kentucky, @Vandy, home Alabama, home Arkansas, home Tennessee

IL best wins if we win the BTT: @Purdue, @Nebraksa, @Iowa, home Texas Tech, nuetral Tennessee, neutral Michigan, neutral Michigan State (assuming they come out of the bottom portion).

Both teams would finish with 7 Ls.

I think this is glossing over how much better the rest of Florida's metrics are compared to us; SOR, WAB, SOS.

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

TrahNeb said:
I think this is glossing over how much better the rest of Florida's metrics are compared to us; SOR, WAB, SOS.

SOS: Florida #6; Illinois #19.

WAB: Florida #4; Illinois #11.

SOR: Florida #5; Illinois #12.

Right now, Florida is unquestionably better. Now one’s debating that.

But his point referred to us winning the BTT and FLA losing their 1st game. In that scenario, those gaps would close significantly. Wouldn’t even rule out jumping them in a few of those.

Piotyr · Mar 10, 2026

Hofstra holds off Monmouth to win the CAA auto bid, and make the tourney for the first time in 25 years, when now head coach Speedy Claxton was a player.

Unfortunately for them, they did win the 2020 conference tournament, but there was no NCAA tourney that year.

They'll probably be a 13 seed in this year of conference tournament upsets.

21ChampaignSt · Mar 10, 2026

Rooting for Cincinnati a little bit this week. Right now, it seems like the consensus is that they can't get an at large bid. 46 in NET. 43 in KenPom. But they've been the 12th best team in the country since February 1. Seems like a team capable of bringing a little madness back to March.

WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? · Mar 10, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Nope. Actually, won’t even be that close.

As it currently stands, Illinois has 6 Q1A wins. Florida has 3. That gap would only increase by 2.

FLA best wins: @Kentucky, @Vandy, home Alabama, home Arkansas, home Tennessee

IL best wins if we win the BTT: @Purdue, @Nebraksa, @Iowa, home Texas Tech, nuetral Tennessee, neutral Michigan, neutral Michigan State (assuming they come out of the bottom portion).

Both teams would finish with 7 Ls.

Don’t forget AT Ohio State.

IlliniFan42 · Mar 10, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Nope. Actually, won’t even be that close.

As it currently stands, Illinois has 6 Q1A wins. Florida has 3. That gap would only increase by 2.

FLA best wins: @Kentucky, @Vandy, home Alabama, home Arkansas, home Tennessee

IL best wins if we win the BTT: @Purdue, @Nebraksa, @Iowa, home Texas Tech, nuetral Tennessee, neutral Michigan, neutral Michigan State (assuming they come out of the bottom portion).

Both teams would finish with 7 Ls.

Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

Florida's losses are generally better: For just the other 1-seeds: Florida had a 6-pt neutral loss to Arizona and lost by 1 at Duke. We have a 14-point loss at home to Michigan.

For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

So, you're right it wouldn't be close, you're just wrong in which way it would go.

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

Florida's losses are generally better: For just the other 1-seeds: Florida had a 6-pt neutral loss to Arizona and lost by 1 at Duke. We have a 14-point loss at home to Michigan.

For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

So, you're right it wouldn't be close, you're just wrong in which way it would go.

LMAO you have zero clue.

IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

Currently, yes. But your own asserted scenario was us winning the BTT and FLA losing their first game. In that case, the Q1 would be significantly closer. Also, we have no loses outside of Q1. They would potentially have TWO.

IlliniFan42 said:
For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

Okay? We played BAMA and TENN on a neutral and they played them at home. Almost certain this isn’t a determining logic for the committee. And also, we beat Mizzou by 43 (which you didn’t bother).

IlliniFan42 said:
So, you're right it wouldn't be close, you're just wrong in which way it would go.

Oh aren’t self asserted victories the best?

Piotyr · Mar 10, 2026

21ChampaignSt said:
Rooting for Cincinnati a little bit this week. Right now, it seems like the consensus is that they can't get an at large bid. 46 in NET. 43 in KenPom. But they've been the 12th best team in the country since February 1. Seems like a team capable of bringing a little madness back to March.

I wouldn't say that's the case. They're right on the bubble in a group of 10 teams vying for 3-5 spots.

EDIT: And Stanford lost today, which puts them at the bottom of that list of 10 teams.

EmeraldCityIllini · Mar 10, 2026

IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

Florida's losses are generally better: For just the other 1-seeds: Florida had a 6-pt neutral loss to Arizona and lost by 1 at Duke. We have a 14-point loss at home to Michigan.

For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

So, you're right it wouldn't be close, you're just wrong in which way it would go.

You're leaving out the part where he said IF we won the Big Ten Tournament and Florida lost their first game.

That would move our Q1 to 10-7, while Florida's would be 11-6. And that would also assume we beat 1-seed in our path, Michigan.

A lot of ifs ofcourse, but just reminding what the original point was.

Piotyr · Mar 10, 2026

Speaking of bubble teams, now Virginia Tech just took a profile killing loss to Wake Forest.

NarrowJ · Mar 10, 2026

IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's 11-5 Q1 is more impressive than our 7-7. Our 7-0 is better than their 6-1 in Q2.

And he is saying if we win the BTT and they lose, so our Q1 record would be 10-7 to Florida 11-6

We would have nearly 3x the number of Q1A wins

IlliniFan42 said:
Florida's losses are generally better: For just the other 1-seeds: Florida had a 6-pt neutral loss to Arizona and lost by 1 at Duke. We have a 14-point loss at home to Michigan.

They lost to Auburn (#40 NET), TCU (#41 NET), Missouri (#60 NET)

Our worst loss is to Wisconsin (#26 NET) and we have no other losses outside the top 17

IlliniFan42 said:
For common opponents: We lost by 4 to Alabama, Florida beat them by 23. We lost by 13 to Uconn, Florida lost by 4. We beat TN by 13, Florida beat them by 24. The only common opponent we look better with is Mizzou.

Common opponents is pretty far down the list, but both teams losing to the same team isn't going to be considered much (one team lost by a few points more... that doesn't move the needle)

Fly Illini Fly! said:
SOS: Florida #6; Illinois #19.

WAB: Florida #4; Illinois #11.

SOR: Florida #5; Illinois #12.

With Illinois adding 3 Q1 wins and Florida losing to (the example was Tenn) these would even out, if not have Illinois ahead and one or two of them (probably wouldn't catch them in SOS)

We'd definitely jump them in the NET (we're right behind them as it is)

Very small chance of the tournaments playing out exactly as it would need to for this scenario to occur, but if on Selection Sunday they're looking at something like this?

Fly Illini Fly! · Mar 10, 2026

NarrowJ said:
And he is saying if we win the BTT and they lose, so our Q1 record would be 10-7 to Florida 11-6

EmeraldCityIllini said:
You're leaving out the part where he said IF we won the Big Ten Tournament and Florida lost their first game.

Just p.s. this wasn’t even my point, but his very own:

IlliniFan42 said:
If Illinois wins the Big Ten Tournament and Florida loses their first game, Florida would still get the 1-seed over Illinois if it came down to it.

TrahNeb · Mar 10, 2026

EmeraldCityIllini said:
You're leaving out the part where he said IF we won the Big Ten Tournament and Florida lost their first game.

That would move our Q1 to 10-7, while Florida's would be 11-6. And that would also assume we beat 1-seed in our path, Michigan.

A lot of ifs ofcourse, but just reminding what the original point was.

I still don't think this is enough to jump Florida. Also we'd be closer to 9-7 in the committee's eyes as the BTT championship is hardly accounted for in seeding.

Edit: I stand corrected if NarrowJ's analysis is accurate.

IlliniFaninHoosierLand · Mar 10, 2026

thefalcon5 said:
What’s the reasoning that Saint Louis would get put in Saint Louis?

I’ve seen multiple sources saying the committee will push for that. Other than making the ncaa more money what’s the purpose? Feels undermining to give a 10 seed essentially a home game.

Broader question: Who exactly gets to pick their location? I was always under the impression only 1 seeds could.

One thing that's worth pointing out is that SLU is not the host of the tourney games in St. Louis. As far as I know it has normally been the MVC that has been the host.