Bracketology

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#401      
We were a lock for a 3 regardless of our loss.

Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Duke, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, Alabama, UCONN, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue, Arkansas.

You seriously thought 12 teams out of that grouping would be seeded above us? Kansas was always going to lose today and got hammered. One of Purdue/Nebraska had to lose since they played each other. Tennessee isn't getting past Vandy AND Florida.

These narratives are just spurred on by having no knowledge outside of one team and the rest of college basketball (which is fine, it's a lot to keep up with, but you probably shouldn't make such generalized judgements).
Me, no not really. I saw us as the first 3 so it’s possible that Alabama, Kansas, Virginia, and even Gonzaga (in the eyes of the committee, not logic) could have squeaked over us.

This, of course, was predicated on the Wisconsin loss being a “bad one.” The types of losses around us really made that narrative moot, even more than the losses themselves.

Really what my point boils down to is a comfortable 3 vs an anxious Selection Show.
 
#403      
There you go again, talking down to anyone who dares to criticize the teams' flaws or Underwoods' flaws.
His comment had nothing to do with Underwood's flaws or the team's flaws. It was regarding us falling to a 4seed, which I gladly disputed.
Sure. Let's just go along with your ridiculous takes. Nothing is ever wrong, the losses don't mean anything, Underwood is the best HC ever, and we're gonna win March Madness!
LMFAO literally not one thing in my post you quoted had anything to do with any of those points. At least bother to provide factual evidence to support your ignorant claim?
 
#405      
His comment had nothing to do with Underwood's flaws or the team's flaws. It was regarding us falling to a 4seed, which I gladly disputed.

LMFAO literally not one thing in my post you quoted had anything to do with any of those points. At least bother to provide factual evidence to support your ignorant claim?
FIF, I appreciate your level-headed takes.

I think we as a fanbase are in one of the worst forms of purgatory. This fanbase is way too invested for a team that’s been to the second weekend once in two decades with 1 big ten regular season title.

The 2005 team came at a formative time for many of us much like the 1989 edition for the prior gen.

2024 bred a bit of hope that TSJ could carry us like Kemba. The Huskies absolutely eviscerated that notion.

This team back in early Feb re-seeded some of that hopium despite glaring personnel gaps to actually be a true contender.

I fell off following the team after we lost that heartbreaker to Miami in the 2/7 game in 2013. I’ll admit I hopped on the 2021 bandwagon AFTER Selection Sunday. And within a week, the team revalidated why I had so to speak left the fandom almost a decade prior.

2024 raised false hope again. And again now in 2026. We don’t have the recruiting prowess nor NIL to successfully land Duke type classes or build Michigan-like squads.

All of the sadness I suppose you see manifesting in different ways now (including hot takes about our seeding) is stemming for a realization that this team’s closest chance for a title was in 2005 when we were tied 70-70 and Luther missed the go-ahead 3 with 2min left to play. That would have made for the wildest title run with only 1 loss and multiple double digit NCAA comebacks vs. an Arizona and a UNC.

UConn going on a 30-0 run to bury us early in the second half in 2024 quite frankly felt worse than some the pre-2005 Sweet 16/Elite 8 losses to Duke, Kansas, and Arizona. We were more competitive in those early 2000s games. Our squads were overall better constructed vs. Domask booty ball as a second scoring option.

This program is farther from a title now than it was in that amazing 2000-2005 period. It’s still the closest we’ve perhaps been since 2005. But there’s been no long term movement of the needle in a quarter century for the winningest program of all time with insane in-state talent. Our Chicago pipeline isn’t any better - likely worse seeing what Morez achieved by leaving. Over-indexing on Euroball clearly has its ceiling. Our NCAA performance 2021-2026 will likely pale in comparison to 2001-2005.

And you start to realize the optimal time to probably ever buy into this team is if they ever miraculously made a Final Four. Not a moment before.

2021, 2024, and likely 2026 will complete the false hopium trilogy.
 
#406      
Appreciate the response.

And as Piotyr keeps saying, they'll probably be in regardless because of resume rankings (WAB/SOR/KPI). This is just a discussion of what we think "should" be.

Here's a list of their nine closest games. Many of them were when the pressure of being undefeated was lower. I can accept that they're good at late-game situations, so I'm not saying these should necessarily be 50/50 games, but they could easily be 6-3 through no fault of their own, especially the highlighted ones where the outcome was uncertain (if not unlikely) in the final minute of regulation and/or OT.
View attachment 48187

I think that for a truly "deserving" at-large team with a lot more close wins than losses, we could hypothetically flip a few of their close wins to a close losses and they'd be just slightly less deserving. What they proved over thousands of possessions dwarfs how a few balls happened to bounce in some close games. If we do that for Miami OH, I don't think anyone is talking about them. It's the aura of being undefeated that makes them stand out from their poor efficiency metrics. But there's a reason efficiency metrics are very good at measuring true ability (and why we were all angry when we drew Loyola as our 8 seed).

If you prefer humans (polls) over efficiency metrics, those who are much better than coaches/media (betting markets) have their championship odds at/below similar teams that are less likely to even get an at-large selection, like Akron (meaning their odds of winning if they are selected will be even higher than they are now). I understand not wanting some P5 team with a bad record to get in, but there are other "deserving" non-P5s too.
A couple days later with my response but this obviously comes after Miami's loss to UMass. I think a lot of the bracketologists still have them in the field on the basis of their regular season body of work. I think this is a case where metrics can be slightly deceiving. Auburn and Indiana's metrics point to better NET rankings more Quad 1/2 wins, and stronger SOS. But when you watch all 3 play and you let your eyes tell you the story, I believe Miami is the more deserving team. They are more cohesive and player better basketball. I don't need to see a team get in with 14 or 15 or 16 losses. That just means they were average/mediocre. A better case could be made for Oklahoma and Cincinnati than either Auburn or Indiana b/c at least Oklahoma and Cincinnati have played well down the stretch and playing their best basketball in February/March. A case can be made for San Diego St and New Mexico as well.

But no case in my mind can be made for Indiana, Auburn, Stanford, or Seton Hall over Miami. None of those teams look like NCAA tournament teams and none have helped their resume down the stretch. Seton Hall had 2 chances to beat St John's and whiffed on both. Indiana looks god awful and Auburn is just mid. The eye test matters just as much as the metrics sometimes. Miami vs Auburn and Indiana is a real test for the committee but I think if you're the committee, you want to put in the team who has been playing well down the stretch and who you think has a better chance to win games when you're looking at these two polar opposite resumes
 
#408      
It’s not dramatic. You have to take everything into consideration.

1 seed.. lose first weekend..

Skyy/Epps/Mayer year… lose first game

4 seed.. lose first weekend..

Last year.. lost first weekend…

Brad rode TSJ’s back to an elite 8…

How many first team all big ten guys have we had walk through the door? How many all Americans? How many freshman of the year? 6th man of the year? Most wins in the big ten over last 7 years?

And what do we have? 1 extended tournament run….. pathetic.
The first ever GIANT Eeyore award! Also, username doesn't check out . . .

I Cannot Wait Winnie The Pooh GIF by Maudit
 
#409      
We’re a solid 3 seed. We’re not a 2 seed. We’ve literally done nothing the last month to argue we should be a 2 seed ahead of Iowa St, MSU, etc… but that’s ok. Just go out and win some darn games !
The last month means nothing more than December when it comes to deserving a particular seed.
 
#410      
I don't know how anyone has any confidence we can contain BYU's Wright (much less AJ), TN Gillespie, UL's Mikel Brown Jr, UNC's Trimble.

We've not been able to contain guards all season.
 
#412      
Brad-get red faced mad-The Illini definitely cannot close out a game. Just check the facts Brad.
Alabama-Illini lose by 4, shot 59% from free throw line. Alabama guards torch us -35 pts.
Uconn-Illini shoot 29% from 3,
Nebraska-Illini lose by 3. Sandfort torches Illini with 32
MSU-Illini shoot 27% from 3, missed 45 shots!, Fears drives us nuts with 26 and trips Mirk but Izzo didn't see it.
Wisconsin-Illini blow 12 lead, Boyd/Blackwell score 49
UCLA-Illini blow 20 point lead-Dent drives full court with 5 seconds to go and lays it in UNTOUCHED!
Wisconsin-Illini lead by 15 in 2nd half-Boyd/Blackwell score 69 pts. Illini shoot 60% from free throw line

So, Brad yes, this team has choked away several games. In fact they controlled their own destiny to finish 2nd in the Conference and proceeded to not show up in 4 of their last 6 games. This team doesn't know the meaning of playing defense, All season long opposing guards has shot the lights out from 3 or drove down the lanes to lay it in untouched by the soft play od guys inside. Your approach to being the first to score 90 points doesn't work. Did you ever study defense in school, did you know you can't win any championships without being able to stop the other team from scoring?
You have proven you can recruit but you have shown us you CAN'T COACH! No in game changes. When these guys start to melt down you sit there with your head in in hands and hide!
You can't blame the referees as bad as they are with these losses, they came as a result of poor coaching.
Take a look at Dusty May and Fred Hoiberg who rebuilt teams from nothing and they coached their teams to success. 24-8 to me is not success without any semblance of a championship. 4 O.T. losses because this team CHOKED down the stretch!
I think it is time you and Tyler moved on. We need someone who can take good players and make them better over the year instead of looking like a deer in the headlights when the game is on the line! These guys will be 1 and done in the tourney and so will you!
 
#413      
Brad Underwood is the new Rick Barnes. Good to great regular season team that falls flat on their face come tournament time.

A ball dominant guard in the round of 32 is who we should be more focused on than if we are a two or three seed.
 
#414      
Illinois Fighting Illini Orange GIF by Fighting Illini Athletics

Nerd Truth GIF


We are a top 10'ish program (there are dozens of P5 conference year that wish they were us)
We have a coaching staff and means that can find and get talent
We have no major injuries to limit our team going in to the tourney
We'll be a 3 seed or better (IMO, not a huge difference - 4 sucks)

I thinks (probably not facts)
The B10 teams have figured out how to slow down our offense driven by Keaton - not sure others will be able to
We have low emotional focus -very few "dogs" on the team - when we aren't scoring we loss defense focus - I wish Ty could play
We need more of a defensive spark off the bench - Z gives us some - but we need a on ball dog (Boz is the guy - but hard not to start him)
If we "fire BU", then it will take a decade or two to get back here. We aren't a "blue blood"

All in all I think we get to the 2nd weekend - if we can hit shots and maintain focus - final 4 is a real possibility
 
#417      
After sleeping on it, I agree with some of the other posters. We look like a lifeless analytics stat sheet masquerading as a basketball team. Toughness and leadership feel thin, and a deep run doesn’t seem especially likely. That’s all fair criticism.

That said, two things are still true: we can score, and our size creates matchup problems. The other factor is that the 6, 7 (don’t), 10, and 11 seeds are flawed teams. If I’m being objective, and I’m a fan of any projected 6–11 seed right now, I’m not confident seeing Illinois on the other side of the bracket. Let’s go make a Sweet 16.
 
#418      
It’s not dramatic. You have to take everything into consideration.

1 seed.. lose first weekend..

Skyy/Epps/Mayer year… lose first game

4 seed.. lose first weekend..

Last year.. lost first weekend…

Brad rode TSJ’s back to an elite 8…

How many first team all big ten guys have we had walk through the door? How many all Americans? How many freshman of the year? 6th man of the year? Most wins in the big ten over last 7 years?

And what do we have? 1 extended tournament run….. pathetic.
This is so much when we win its the players and when we lose its the coaches that it almost comes off like parody.
 
#419      
After sleeping on it, I agree with some of the other posters. We look like a lifeless analytics stat sheet masquerading as a basketball team. Toughness and leadership feel thin, and a deep run doesn’t seem especially likely. That’s all fair criticism.

That said, two things are still true: we can score, and our size creates matchup problems. The other factor is that the 6, 7 (don’t), 10, and 11 seeds are flawed teams. If I’m being objective, and I’m a fan of any projected 6–11 seed right now, I’m not confident seeing Illinois on the other side of the bracket. Let’s go make a Sweet 16.
Not sure if the toughness things is entirely fair. It may be. I went the game in Lincoln and a non-tough team doesn’t make all the shots they did to win that game in front of a very hostile crowd. Just as one example. A few different breaks in a few OT games and the narrative is very different.
 
#420      
Illinois Fighting Illini Orange GIF by Fighting Illini Athletics

Nerd Truth GIF


We are a top 10'ish program (there are dozens of P5 conference year that wish they were us)
We have a coaching staff and means that can find and get talent
We have no major injuries to limit our team going in to the tourney
We'll be a 3 seed or better (IMO, not a huge difference - 4 sucks)

I thinks (probably not facts)
The B10 teams have figured out how to slow down our offense driven by Keaton - not sure others will be able to
We have low emotional focus -very few "dogs" on the team - when we aren't scoring we loss defense focus - I wish Ty could play
We need more of a defensive spark off the bench - Z gives us some - but we need a on ball dog (Boz is the guy - but hard not to start him)
If we "fire BU", then it will take a decade or two to get back here. We aren't a "blue blood"

All in all I think we get to the 2nd weekend - if we can hit shots and maintain focus - final 4 is a real possibility
I want to stress that I am NOT using this as a call to "fire BU," I like and respect him and hope he figures out how to get the most out of this team next week and beyond.

However, this bolded "think" is far, far from being a fact. Especially in the NIL era. Having the right coach/recruiter/NIL collective is everything in college basketball now. You can buy a team in a matter of months. Just look at Michigan. No way it would take decades to "get back."

Not picking on you specifically, but this type of thinking is part of what holds this program back IMO. "Just be happy with where we are at" is not how I want the leaders of the program to be making decisions. This program and fan base deserve way more than that.
 
#421      
I believe we are secure as a 3 seed but keep an eye on Virginia. They have a huge opportunity today. Virginia has won 13 or last 14 (lone loss at Duke). Virginia and Purdue have a chance to knock out two 3 seeds. If Purdue hasn't already knocked one out.
 
#422      
After sleeping on it, I agree with some of the other posters. We look like a lifeless analytics stat sheet masquerading as a basketball team. Toughness and leadership feel thin, and a deep run doesn’t seem especially likely. That’s all fair criticism.

That said, two things are still true: we can score, and our size creates matchup problems. The other factor is that the 6, 7 (don’t), 10, and 11 seeds are flawed teams. If I’m being objective, and I’m a fan of any projected 6–11 seed right now, I’m not confident seeing Illinois on the other side of the bracket. Let’s go make a Sweet 16.
We are like the football team who racks up 500 yards but doesn’t actually win the big games. Stats look great on offense but it’s a bottom line business
 
#423      
Not to be Johnny Raincloud, but I'm not sensing a happy ending in the NCAA tournament, be it a #2 or #3 seed. That being said, I hope that I'm wrong.
 
#424      
After sleeping on it, I agree with some of the other posters. We look like a lifeless analytics stat sheet masquerading as a basketball team. Toughness and leadership feel thin, and a deep run doesn’t seem especially likely. That’s all fair criticism.

That said, two things are still true: we can score, and our size creates matchup problems. The other factor is that the 6, 7 (don’t), 10, and 11 seeds are flawed teams. If I’m being objective, and I’m a fan of any projected 6–11 seed right now, I’m not confident seeing Illinois on the other side of the bracket. Let’s go make a Sweet 16.
good take. unfortunately we have done absolutely nothing the past month to make me think we have a deep run in us. we look like we peaked too early and everyone has checked out
 
#425      
I don’t think that the computer focused selection models will pick this up but the reality of this team is that we have a big highly talented team with a couple fatal flaws that are now exposed for all to see. On defense we just can’t scheme around the fact that we’re slow and subject to being left standing by athletic guards and wings. On offense we lack anyone that really can take the ball to the hole, especially our bigs. AS is probably our best but his spin moves don’t work much when the level of competition picks up. I love Mirk and really want him to stay next year but his drives to the hoop are measured with a sundial and frequently end up with a strip or tie up from the help side.
When the 3s are falling we can be dangerous. However we haven’t seen many back to back games like this much less 6. We should all just be thankful that the committee is more metric focused than breaking down the teams.
 
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