Chicago Bears 2023-2024

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#701      
GILL-INOIS
Illwinsagain said:
Personally, I like the idea of trading the first pick, to a bad team that will likely still be bad next year, like Carolina this year. I don't watch enough other NFL to know who would be best. Trade for this year's and next years #1 and #2. That would keep you in a position to draft early again next year. I would like to stay in the top 3, to get MHJ, if he is what everyone says he is.
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Bears control the Draft again. It will be interesting to see where the other 1st round pick ends up. Some Mock Drafts have 4 QBs taken around the top 10 area. Either way Poles needs to land talent whether he stays put or trades down.

About the highlighted part I saw something that the Cardinals at #3 would have a tough time not taking MHJ if available
 
#702      
Illiniaaron
Emerson Bigguns said:
Hmm... In terms of Quarterback rating, 50 is considered average, and anything over 60 is considered elite.

In 5 of his last 6 games (basically since Getsy scrapped his pre-season playbook), Fields has had a QB rating above 80.
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Saw a graphic where in his last 17 games, his QBR is very similar to Burrow, Lawrence, and Herbert in their last 17. The big differences are in passing yards, where he is over 1,000 less than the other guys, and rushing yardage, where he is way above them.
 
#703      
Illiniaaron
I pretty much flip-flop week to week on whether the Bears should go forward with Fields or not. I've heard some analysts say the Bears might be able to get three first round picks for the overall #1 pick in 2024. That would be almost impossible to pass up imo. With their draft assets and cap space, they are ready to compete for the playoffs next year. If you want to replace Fields, I'm not convinced that you are replacing him with someone better with Williams or May. If you could add a stud three-technique or another edge rusher, this defense is top 5 caliber. Other than depth, they are set for a number of years at linebacker and they are young and good in the secondary. Either resign Johnson or franchise tag him. My fear is that if you re-set with a rookie qb, you are wasting a year or two of this team's contention window.
 
#704      
Roundball Sage
Illiniaaron said:
I pretty much flip-flop week to week on whether the Bears should go forward with Fields or not.
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Another thing to consider about Fields is that in his heart he is a running quarterback. He likes to run and he is good at it. The problem? It's almost impossible to keep running QBs healthy long-term. And if you look at who the very best QBs over history have been... Brady? Marino? Rodgers? Elway? Brees? Manning?... these guys were great at throwing the ball and mostly staying home in the pocket and did not run much. This is clearly something that works against the kind of QB Fields is.

I'm not saying that Fields belongs anywhere near the class of those other guys. I'm just highlighting that running is in his nature and that does not translate to long-term health or stability at QB. And the few really good QBs who ran a lot have bigger body types than FIelds and could absorb more punishment.

So... do the Bears want a QB who wants to run but which does not relate to a long and healthy career? Something they need to think about.
 
#705      
Illinirog70
illinistephen said:
The problem I have with Bo Nix and also Michael Penix is how much of their success is because they are 23 years old playing against teenagers? How good do you imagine Justin Fields would have looked if he was playing in his 4th year at stacked Ohio State last year at age 23 instead of his 2nd year with the depleted Bears roster?
Plus it is super risky to trade down and hope your QB is there. What happens if another team likes the same QB and picks them right before you?
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All good points...
However I feel that Nix is better now than Fields will ever be. Fields played 3 years at OSU and was sack-prone his whole time. After three years with the bears he is poor at making quick decisions and getting rid of the ball quickly enough to avoid sacks. Yes, he's a great runner, but so is Nix. Its a toss-up but I'm thinking Nix will come in and produce at a higher level than Fields. The scoring level when Fields is QB is very low, but they're winning because of the defense. Nix would improve that.

As far as draft position, keep Fields until they've secured Nix with one of their two first round picks, then trade him. Or not!
 
#706      
illinistephen
Illiniaaron said:
I pretty much flip-flop week to week on whether the Bears should go forward with Fields or not.
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Lucky you, I feel like I'm flip-flopping every day. Just today, Big Ben is in the news and I look and see that his stats in year 3 are terrible. But then I remind myself that he did win a super bowl. So then I see that in 2008 the steelers led the league in points allowed at 13.9. And then I think, well, if the Bears trade the #1 pick then they can get a haul of picks to build an awesome team that most any QB would win with. Then I see that in the 2005 steelers super bowl year, they were only 4th in points allowed, and the Bears were #1. Then I imagine if instead of Kyle Orton with his 9TD and 13INT in 2005, that offense just had Justin Fields level play with some weapons, how much better those teams could have been.
Tomorrow, I'll probably flip back to wanting to reset on a rookie QB contract with the #1 pick.....
 
#708      
EyeoftheIllini
champaignchris said:
Maybe should be an asterisk on the 2010’s. Carson Wentz, 2nd overall pick in 2016, started 13 games for the Eagles in 2017, going 11-2, before he got hurt.

You also have Joe Burrow (#1 in 2020) losing by 3 points. Matt Ryan (#3 in 2008) losing by 6 in one of the most improbable comebacks of all time. Donovan McNabb (#2 in 1999) losing by 3. And Steve McNair (#3 in 1995) losing by inches.

Plenty of guys taken later in the first round - Mahomes, Flacco, Rodgers, Roethlisberger - have won Super Bowls. Lamar Jackson has a real good shot to join them this year. These tend to be better teams to begin with than the teams taking quarterbacks in the top 5.

It’s a chicken and egg thing. Is it the team being bad or the qb not being good enough? Technically, in Eli Manning’s case, he was picked first overall, but not by the team he won the Super Bowl with. He was traded a couple days later to a team that wasn’t bad enough to earn the 1st overall pick before he eventually won his 2 Super Bowls. The Bears would be in a situation more like Manning’s Giants than other teams drafting the first overall pick.
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Agree. Each QB drafted goes into a different situation — quality of the team around him, and maybe just as important quality of coaching staff and front office around him. Also, while winning the Super Bowl each year is the goal, does not winning one make that a bad year or career. John Elway didn’t win a Super Bowl until his 14th year I think. Does that mean he wasn’t a great QB and more than worth drafting #1 prior to that? Of course not.

It’s a gamble using the pick and it’s a gamble trading the pick and riding with Fields. And that’s true even if you have great faith in the front office and coaching staff. And does anyone really have such great faith?
 
#709      
EyeoftheIllini
GILL-INOIS said:
Bears control the Draft again. It will be interesting to see where the other 1st round pick ends up. Some Mock Drafts have 4 QBs taken around the top 10 area. Either way Poles needs to land talent whether he stays put or trades down.

About the highlighted part I saw something that the Cardinals at #3 would have a tough time not taking MHJ if available
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Yes, Kyler Murray is early in his second contract, which makes moving on from him difficult. AZ is 2-2 since he came back from injury — though two wins are against not so good teams. They’re expected to take Harrison if available or trade down to get more picks to help build around Murray. If Bears want Harrison they’ll probably need to take him with #1 pick.
 
#710      
Illiniaaron
illinistephen said:
And then I think, well, if the Bears trade the #1 pick then they can get a haul of picks to build an awesome team that most any QB would win with.
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The meatball fan in me says that if you are adding 2 first round draft picks to this team for the next 3 years you would have to have an idiot GM and/or coach not to win.
 
#711      
GILL-INOIS
Illiniaaron said:
The meatball fan in me says that if you are adding 2 first round draft picks to this team for the next 3 years you would have to have an idiot GM and/or coach not to win.
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The football fan in me says that if you are having the #1 pick two seasons in a row you have to land a franchise QB or if he believes Fields is the choice than so be it. If he can't land a franchise QB between these scenarios than you have an idiot GM.

I have a soft spot for the Bears and hope they can figure it out
 
#712      
AnnoyedWithGarza
GILL-INOIS said:
The football fan in me says that if you are having the #1 pick two seasons in a row you have to land a franchise QB or if he believes Fields is the choice than so be it. If he can't land a franchise QB between these scenarios than you have an idiot GM.

I have a soft spot for the Bears and hope they can figure it out
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Then again, you don't need a franchise QB to win if you have such a good team to win without one, i.e. SF. You just need a guy that won't screw it up. Yes I know that Purdy is getting better but SF wasn't winning last year because of him, they were winning with him.
 
#713      
GILL-INOIS
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
Then again, you don't need a franchise QB to win if you have such a good team to win without one, i.e. SF. You just need a guy that won't screw it up. Yes I know that Purdy is getting better but SF wasn't winning last year because of him, they were winning with him.
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You don't need a franchise QB to make or win a Super Bowl. Bears have proven that on winning and losing end of it. The chances sure go up of making the playoffs continually and winning a Super Bowl though if you have one.

49ers roster was real good last year and even better this season. If the Bears get a loaded team like that than they could ride with Fields or a number of QBs. Not saying they should/shouldn't as the talent doesn't match.
 
#714      
illinistephen
Every Super Bowl winner since the 1976 Raiders have had either a Top 8 scoring defense or a QB that was one of the first two QB's taken in their draft class.
All Super Bowl losers since the 2011 Patriots have had either a Top 8 scoring defense or a QB that was one of the first two QB's taken in their draft class.

There is a long list of HOF QB's, Bradshaw, Aikman, Montana, Young, Elway, Brady, Rodgers, Favre, Warner, Ben, Wilson etc. that were only able to win Super Bowls during seasons where the team had a top 8 scoring defense.

So what is more likely, the #1 pick is a stud QB and you can use what you have to build the rest of the team to an elite level knowing you won't have the #1 pick again in all likelihood, or you build a stud team around JF1 now by trading the #1 pick thinking you can still use the haul to draft a QB later if needed.
 
#715      
GILL-INOIS
illinistephen said:
So what is more likely, the #1 pick is a stud QB and you can use what you have to build the rest of the team to an elite level knowing you won't have the #1 pick again in all likelihood, or you build a stud team around JF1 now by trading the #1 pick thinking you can still use the haul to draft a QB later if needed.
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Chance both happen

Last year ride with Fields and get assets for #1 pick

TBD this season......

Got a haul last season and will again if they go that direction

Last year teams were going after 2 QBs. This year 2 QBs and WR. I don't see Harrison Jr going #1, doesn't mean it can't/won't happen.

Fields has decent trade value. At worst I see a conditional 3rd rounder. Basically is a 2!d round pick if doesn't get hurt.
 
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#716      
Grandpa
I only heard snippets, was working on the pickup truck to livestock trailer light connection, so I would be at the cab and hear 670 the score, then at the back of the truck and hear nothing.
Someone, I don't know who, had interviewed 7 NFL GMs about Fields and Caleb Williams. All 7 were guaranteed anonymity. All 7 would trade Fields and draft Williams. Every one. I only heard a few of the deals that they thought the Bears could get for Fields. It was things like, and don't quote me on this part, but like a 2 next year and a 3 the following, another may have said a 3 then a 4 the following. Someone may have added a late round pick. I missed most of that part.
I wish I had taken the time to listen. Not sure of the time but it was getting darkish. I still need to work on or replace the connection on the truck. The trailer lights work on a different truck, so at least I know where the problem is.

Fields could still win me over if the rest of the season he would drop back, pick up a guy downfield and throw him the ball quickly and accurately.
 
#717      
IllinoisssssssVarsity
I think you gotta keep fields. Grab more lineman on either side in the draft, because football, and see what he does next year. There is a chance with the way he has been playing as of late that it has clicked for him. Would he just like us to finally draft a qb and get him to click and trade him away to dominate the league for ten years.
 
#718      
illinistephen
It is the next day and I flipped back to the trade Fields camp. Cole Kmet wide open at the 41 yard line, looking right at him with a clean pocket, and doesn't pull the trigger. Can't blame the HC or OC. These inconsistencies aren't uncommon, and a new LT and MH Jr. don't suddenly fix this.
There are I believe 14 current QB's that already have contracts signed with a cap hit of more than $50M at least once during the life of the contract going forward. 9 QB's with $230M or higher total contracts. With Tua and Trevor going next to pass this. Even if Justin is only a top 15 or top 20 QB (he probably thinks he is better), and with the cap going up every year, his contract extension floor is probably 5/$250M for his expectation. Is Fields the guy to fix that contract to?
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#719      
Grandpa
illinistephen said:
It is the next day and I flipped back to the trade Fields camp. Cole Kmet wide open at the 41 yard line, looking right at him with a clean pocket, and doesn't pull the trigger. Can't blame the HC or OC. These inconsistencies aren't uncommon, and a new LT and MH Jr. don't suddenly fix this.
There are I believe 14 current QB's that already have contracts signed with a cap hit of more than $50M at least once during the life of the contract going forward. 9 QB's with $230M or higher total contracts. With Tua and Trevor going next to pass this. Even if Justin is only a top 15 or top 20 QB (he probably thinks he is better), and with the cap going up every year, his contract extension floor is probably 5/$250M for his expectation. Is Fields the guy to fix that contract to?
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I also hate to think about him rewarding him with a huge contract. Him being athletic with a strong arm doesn't make him a good QB. He would have to blow me away in the few remaining games.
 
#720      
illinistephen
Grandpa said:
I only heard snippets, was working on the pickup truck to livestock trailer light connection, so I would be at the cab and hear 670 the score, then at the back of the truck and hear nothing.
Someone, I don't know who, had interviewed 7 NFL GMs about Fields and Caleb Williams. All 7 were guaranteed anonymity. All 7 would trade Fields and draft Williams. Every one. I only heard a few of the deals that they thought the Bears could get for Fields. It was things like, and don't quote me on this part, but like a 2 next year and a 3 the following, another may have said a 3 then a 4 the following. Someone may have added a late round pick. I missed most of that part.
I wish I had taken the time to listen. Not sure of the time but it was getting darkish. I still need to work on or replace the connection on the truck. The trailer lights work on a different truck, so at least I know where the problem is.

Fields could still win me over if the rest of the season he would drop back, pick up a guy downfield and throw him the ball quickly and accurately.
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There is a yahoo article that goes over these exact points Here.
Maybe the score had on the guy who wrote it.
 
#721      
Scoregasm
illinistephen said:
It is the next day and I flipped back to the trade Fields camp. Cole Kmet wide open at the 41 yard line, looking right at him with a clean pocket, and doesn't pull the trigger. Can't blame the HC or OC. These inconsistencies aren't uncommon, and a new LT and MH Jr. don't suddenly fix this.
There are I believe 14 current QB's that already have contracts signed with a cap hit of more than $50M at least once during the life of the contract going forward. 9 QB's with $230M or higher total contracts. With Tua and Trevor going next to pass this. Even if Justin is only a top 15 or top 20 QB (he probably thinks he is better), and with the cap going up every year, his contract extension floor is probably 5/$250M for his expectation. Is Fields the guy to fix that contract to?
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He is turnover prone, holds the ball too long, doesn't consistently see open receivers, has taken a lot of sacks. He also runs too much which automatically shortens his shelf life in the league. Hard pass, take a QB in the draft.

He is fun to watch though.
 
#723      
KingWolf11
Peter King said he thinks the bears could get 3 firsts and a dj Moore level player for the first pick. JF1 + that package >>>> Just Caleb Williams. Look at the niners build out your roster and find a qb you can win with, you can win with JF
 
#724      
B-ILL
Two best options in no specific order:

Option 1:
- Trade back from #1 to approximately #4 (Washington) or #6 (Las Vegas).
- Get a 2024 second rounder, a 2025 first rounder (critical), and maybe some other picks in 2025 or 2026. If they want to target a player on either team (like they did with Moore), go for it. Crosby on LV?
- Pick the best WR on the board at 4/6, likely LSU Nabers. Then pick best DE at Bears own 1st pick, likely around #10.
- Use the new 2nd rounder to pick a Center; Patrick and Whitehair are both pretty awful.
- *BIG POINT* Ensuring you have either WAS or LV's 1st rounder next year means you could potentially snag a QB next year if Fields *still* doesn't pan out. Both of these teams could still be pretty bad next year, especially WAS with a rookie QB.
- Why this option wouldn't happen: (1) The QB class next year is notably weaker than this year. (2) Poles is ready to move on; he doesn't want to tie his job status to a QB he didn't draft. His seat is likely already getting warm. (3) They fire the coaching staff this offseason, including OC, and they want to start fresh with a new QB.

Option 2:
- Trade Fields for a 2024 second round pick; per the recent Yahoo Sports article, which is pretty well done, there could be a few teams interested at this price point.
- Draft Caleb Williams at #1. Draft the best DE at #10 (projected Bears 1st round pick).
- Use the pick you get from Fields to pick a Center.
- Why this option wouldn't happen: (1) There are still a lot of question marks around Williams, and the Bears are more comfortable with addressing/coaching Fields' gaps, who they already know. (2) Poles values additional draft picks since this team still has a lot of weaknesses (DB, DE, OL, WR). (3) No one is willing to give up what the Bears want in a trade for Justin Fields.

Crazy Option 3 (BONUS):
- Sign Kirk Cousins
- Trade Justin Fields for a 2024 2nd/3rd round pick.
- Draft Marvin Harrison, Jr. at #1. Draft the Best DE at #10. Draft the best Center in 2nd/3rd.
- Win the division next year.
 
#725      
Grandpa
illinistephen said:
There is a yahoo article that goes over these exact points Here.
Maybe the score had on the guy who wrote it.
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Thank you for finding the article. That was definitely what I heard. I think the score guy was just reading, quoting, etc. I had missed quite a lot of it including the possible trade partners.

I'm guessing the GMs know how to run an NFL team better than I do.
OTOH I was raising Cain when the Bears were trading half the team to move up for a QB draft (Trubisky) and again for a D lineman (Mack). Football takes a lot of players to make a team, and the opponents know how to exploit the weak spots that weren't filled. Edit: Which is a reason to trade back. The last bunch really put our Bears into a deep hole.
 
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