Chicago Cubs 2016 Season

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#703      
bdutts
IanKEvans2 said:
Gray would be a great fit, especially with the Arrieta contract looming, but reports are he's most likely not leaving Oakland because his present value is so low. Though with the SP market so thin, he'd probably bring back a quality return.
http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/in...man/heyman-sonny-gray-going-nowhere-deadline/
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Just like Andrew Miller wasn't going to be traded once Chapman was. :) I don't doubt that the A's have no intention of trading him, until someone gives them what they think is a suitable package. I guess I'd start that off with Soler plus and see where that takes us.

Looks like we have another 14 hours or so until the deadline. Should be interesting and fun.
 
#705      
IanKEvans2
bdutts said:
Just like Andrew Miller wasn't going to be traded once Chapman was. :) I don't doubt that the A's have no intention of trading him, until someone gives them what they think is a suitable package. I guess I'd start that off with Soler plus and see where that takes us.

Looks like we have another 14 hours or so until the deadline. Should be interesting and fun.
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Difference between Miller and Gray is that Miller's value never slipped. He's a top 5 RP in the game. I could see Soler in a package to Tampa Bay.

Latest rumor is the Cubs are looking at Angels' RP, Joe Smith.

Rich Hill and Josh Reddick packaged to the Dodgers.
 
#707      
IanKEvans2
The Giants add LHP Matt Moore from Tampa Bay. Really nice add for them to solidify their rotation.
 
#709      
JoseyWales83
Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 10m10 minutes ago Jersey City, NJ
#angels got Jesus Castillo from #cubs for Joe Smith
 
#710      
IanKEvans2
So how does the bullpen look going forward after today, assuming they stick with 8?

I think 1-6 below are locks, with 7 & 8 up for grabs.
1. Chapman
2. Rondon
3. Strop
4. Wood
5. Montgomery
6. Edwards Jr.
(In no particular order)
7. Smith
8. Grimm
9. Cahill
10. Nathan
11. Patton
 
#711      
champaignchris
IanKEvans2 said:
So how does the bullpen look going forward after today, assuming they stick with 8?

I think 1-6 below are locks, with 7 & 8 up for grabs.
1. Chapman
2. Rondon
3. Strop
4. Wood
5. Montgomery
6. Edwards Jr.
(In no particular order)
7. Smith
8. Grimm
9. Cahill
10. Nathan
11. Patton
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Something pretty close to that. Smith will probably be used as a "Roogy" (a word I hope I just made up) and probably pitch to one or two tough righties in the 6th and 7th innings.

I have a hard time seeing Nathan staying in be roster after Cahill and Soler get healthy.
 
#712      
champaignchris
Huge game from Hendricks tonight. 8 scoreless after the bullpen put in 9 innings last night.

It's amazing seeing a guy throwing 75 mph change ups as his "out" pitch thriving in the big leagues.

He tries for ground balls so hard that he literally gets pissed off any time the ball is hit in the air. Even easy pop ups. Watch him. It's hilarious.

Contreras is becoming Hendricks "personal catcher" - caught Hendricks' last six starts - and they've been phenomenal together.
 
#715      
Serious Late
champaignchris said:
Huge game from Hendricks tonight. 8 scoreless after the bullpen put in 9 innings last night.

It's amazing seeing a guy throwing 75 mph change ups as his "out" pitch thriving in the big leagues.

He tries for ground balls so hard that he literally gets pissed off any time the ball is hit in the air. Even easy pop ups. Watch him. It's hilarious.

Contreras is becoming Hendricks "personal catcher" - caught Hendricks' last six starts - and they've been phenomenal together.
Click to expand...

Can we delve into this conversation on Hendricks for a moment (not saying your comments aren't doing that, just that I have some additional questions)?

I have heard Plesac talk a few times on MLB Network about Hendricks. He ALWAYS comes back to Maddux and frequently references how a guy tossing 100 mph can get rocked, while a guy tossing 88 with late movement and pinpoint control can be lights out.

It leaves me with a few thoughts:

1) How hard is it to maintain the consistency of control that Hendricks has displayed (and what causes him to be favorably compared to Maddux)? I keep waiting for him to get rocked hard, but he just keeps missing bats and hitting his spots extremely consistently for 90-100 pitches per game. It is obviously a lot more susceptible to variation of performance relative to a guy like Chapman, that can go out there and throw 105 and not have to worry about keeping the ball on the edges of the plate as much. But I just wonder, is this something I can trust over the next several years vs. next several starts? It seems like a skill more difficult to replicate start after start, year after year than someone with the natural ability to throw very hard (duh statement, I know).

2) Just how similar are Hendricks and Maddux? I am having trouble comparing our "supposed" #5 starter with one of the best Cubs pitchers of all time (and one of the very best of his generation, regardless of team)... but I don't know exactly why they are any different. Loved Maddux growing up, watched him every start, broke my heart when he left for the Braves. However, is there anything that we witnessed Maddux do that Hendricks can't? Honest question, I don't know the answer to it.

3) Is there any starter that would have made us substantially better at the deadline? I wasn't opposed to adding a controllable starter like the Giants did with Moore, but at the end of the day, was there anyone out on the market we were realistically willing to give up parts for to obtain? In addition to Moore, we are talking pitchers such as Drew Pomeranz, Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, Hector Santiago, Ivan Nova, Francisco Liriano, etc. Who is seriously moving the needle enough to either go with a 6 man rotation or drop one of Hendricks/Hammel (Lackey) from a regular 5 man rotation. At the end of the day, we need a strong top 3 or 4, our number 5 pitcher is not what needs improved for the playoffs. I don't see any of the pitchers mentioned above substantially improving our playoff rotation. If we can get our hands on a Sale or Archer type pitcher (I would have also taken seriously a Tyson Ross or Sonny Gray type acquisition, but that would have wildly different expectations between sides, I just don't think the selling team would accept the current realities of their starters).

4) Is Hendricks a starter in the playoffs? Arrieta and Lester are locked in as our 1-2 pitchers in the postseason, but does Hendricks battle Lackey for that game 3? Do we go back to Arrieta/Lester for game 4 or does one of Lackey/Hammel/Hendricks compete for that game 4 slot? Again, I seriously don't know the answers here, but would love any clarification if there is an obvious answer to these questions.

At the end of the day, the Cubs have a rotation with questions, but not one that could be altered much via trade and be guaranteed to improve. Arrieta/Lester need to be consistently dominant in the 1-2 spots, and in the last couple months they have not been. Our 3-4-5 pitchers seem to be somewhat comparable in terms of talent, resulting in a current #5 starter that could just as easily be considered our #3 starter. That feels like both a positive and a negative, just depends on which side of the coin we get come playoff time. It is a concern regardless. The good news is, I think we will get clarification over the next 2 months. If Hendricks finishes off the season like he has so far this year, he is probably starting game 3 of each playoff series. Any hiccups moving forward, and Lackey is every bit capable of being a World Series winning #3 pitcher. At the end of the day, Hendricks has the potential to take this staff from very good, to great. More so than Hammel at least (I think I just talked myself into that point) and potentially more than Lackey, just depends on his ability to consistently prove results.
 
#716      
champaignchris
The short answer to your first question is that in his prime Maddux was a much harder thrower than Hendricks is now. Maddux had all the control, brains, and competitiveness of Hendricks and 6 or 7 mph more on his fastball. Which is, of course, why Maddux is one of the best 5 right handed pitchers to ever live.

That said, Maddux is the comparison people keep going back to because there really is no one else to compare Hendricks to. No right-handed pitcher that tosses this softly without a knuckleball or other gimic pitch has ever performed this well over such a sustained period. Heck, most of the great knuckleballers had fastballs that were faster than Hendricks when they were in their prime. I think R. A. Dickey's knuckleball during his CY Young year was faster than Hendricks's fastball.

So, how good can Hendricks be? It seems like it's only a matter of time before hitters catch up to (slow down to?) Hendricks. He seems like the type of pitcher that patient power hitters like Anthony Rizzo or Joey Votto would just start destroying after their fourth or fifth time seeing him. So maybe he has a career somewhat similar to, say, Aaron Sele. That seems like the most likely outcome. He'll be a mediocre to decent pitcher, and right now, while he's young, healthy, and cost controlled, that makes him a very nice commodity to have.

However, every Hall of Fame pitcher has something freakish about them. Something they do that is nearly superhuman. And watching Hendricks hit the exact same spot (knee level on the outside of the plate) with 75 mph change up, 77 mph curve ball and 88 mph fastball, pitch after pitch after pitch, inducing weekly hit ground balls over and over. Maybe, maybe Hendricks is that freak. Maybe he can keep throwing that strike and even if you know it's coming, you can't do anything with it. I wouldn't bet on it, but it'll be fun to watch.
 
#717      
KBLEE
champaignchris said:
The short answer to your first question is that in his prime Maddux was a much harder thrower than Hendricks is now. Maddux had all the control, brains, and competitiveness of Hendricks and 6 or 7 mph more on his fastball. Which is, of course, why Maddux is one of the best 5 right handed pitchers to ever live.
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Not sure what Maddux you were watching, as 6-7 MHP is not even close. Hendricks' 4 seamer sits at 89. For most of Maddux's prime, his fastball was in the 90-91 range and dipped to mid-upper 80s as he aged.
 
#718      
champaignchris
KBLEE said:
Not sure what Maddux you were watching, as 6-7 MHP is not even close. Hendricks' 4 seamer sits at 89. For most of Maddux's prime, his fastball was in the 90-91 range and dipped to mid-upper 80s as he aged.
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At the same age as Hendricks is now (his first of four consecutive CY Young seasons), Maddux's fastball topped out at 93. So, not 6 or 7, but 5 mph, which is still significant.

Their peripherals are very similar with one big exception: Maddux struck people out a lot more during an era where batters generally struck out a lot less than they do now. Despite being a pitcher that generally threw to contact, Maddux still didn't throw to contact as much as Hendricks does. Maddux's out pitch was a trailing fastball that he could get to move in or out without changing his delivery. Hendricks' out pitch - when the batter hasn't dribbled the ball weakly to the second baseman - is a change up 12 mph slower than his fastball, that the hitter is so far out in front of that he nearly spins himself into the ground.

Maddux also pitched 230+ innings a year for a decade (minus the two strike shortened years) while Hendricks is on pace to set a career best 195-ish IP this year. Maddux was also an incredible athlete who may have been the best to field his position ever, was a great base runner and a decent hitter (for a pitcher).

It is absolutely no insult to Hendricks to say he isn't Greg Maddux. Nobody else has ever been Greg Maddux besides Greg Maddux.
 
#719      
IanKEvans2
On the topic of Hendricks, it's been remarkable to watch him blossom this season. Definitely Maddux-light. His 3rd ranked ERA (2.22) has benefited from great defense (11th ranked 3.32 FIP), but his approach has led to leading MLB in soft contact percentage (25.9%). He is fantastic at containing fires; preventing small problems from developing into large ones. Hendricks has been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season.

In other news, Joe Smith is joining the Cubs today, with Spencer Patton being sent back down to AAA.
 
#720      
Serious Late
Right now, best guess... Who takes the mound in game 3 of the NLDS? I am still guessing Lackey, but Hendricks is making a strong push for it.
 
#721      
champaignchris
Serious Late said:
Right now, best guess... Who takes the mound in game 3 of the NLDS? I am still guessing Lackey, but Hendricks is making a strong push for it.
Click to expand...

These things tend to sort themselves out. August last year, it was still a legitimate question as to whether Arrieta or Lester would be the guy to start the play in game. By September, the choice was obvious.

It may come down to match ups - who the Cubs are playing and their past performance against Lackey/Hendricks. It may even come down how the first two games go - for example, if the bullpen is gassed, maybe you go with Lackey because he tends to go longer despite a point higher ERA.

But if I had to guess right now, I'd guess Hendricks. He's been the better pitcher and the Cubs look like they'll only be looking for 5 or 6 innings from their starters in the playoffs. I think they're going to ride Chapman like a horse, and let any future TJS be the problem of whatever team signs him in the offseason.
 
#724      
IanKEvans2
Funny how the bullpen's [expected] tweaking and the starting pitching returning to form will get things back on track. Cubs lead back to 9 over St. Louis after tonight. It's almost as if their prior struggles were part of the natural course of a 162 game season.

Great win against an elite pitcher in Hernandez. Hammel looked sharp once again.
 
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