Chicago Cubs 2016 Season

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#876      
IanKEvans2
Hoppy2105 said:
Hammel has been getting roughed up recently. He has only made it to 6 innings 2 of his last 4 starts and tonight isn't looking much better. I wonder if something is bothering him or if it's just late in the season and he is running out of gas.
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Second and Chalmers said:
Considering he runs out of gas every year, I'm guessing the latter.

Hopefully he's the odd man out come playoff time.
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It's a gluttony of riches for the playoff roster.

Two very likable and quality players in Hammel and Montero very well could be left off the playoff roster.

With everyone healthy, these are my [tentative] 25:
Rotation: Arrieta (R), Lester (L), Hendricks (R), & Lackey (R) - 4
Bullpen: Chapman (L), Rondon (R), Strop (R), Edwards Jr. (R), Grimm (R), Montgomery (L), Cahill (R), Wood (L) - 8
Field: Contreras (C), Rizzo (1B), Zobrist (2B), Russell (SS), Bryant (3B), Soler (LF), Fowler (CF), & Heyward (RF) - 8
Bench: Baez, Ross, La Stella, Sczcur, & Almora - 5

Hardest decisions:
1. Is Hammel kept for the bullpen in favor of the struggling, but left-handed, Wood?
2. Does Almora's glove earn him a spot over a third catcher in Montero?
3. Toughest cuts: Montero, Hammel, Zastryzny, Smith.
 
#877      
ChicagoChief
I just don't see them only keeping 1 LHH off the bench. Maybe but they've been pretty consistent in saying they'd like another.
 
#879      
IanKEvans2
ChicagoChief said:
I just don't see them only keeping 1 LHH off the bench. Maybe but they've been pretty consistent in saying they'd like another.
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I agree with you here. I don't envy the powers-that-be who make this decision. Plus, I love Miggy.

ChicagoChief said:
Szczur and Almora are sort of interchangeable don't see the need to keep both.
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But here I believe Almora has the far superior defensive ability. That said, I think Szczur is a lock. Perhaps Coghlan instead of Almora, too. There's the LH bat, which has done quite well with the Cubs since arriving from the A's.
 
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#880      
IanKEvans2
Magic number for the division down to 8!

It's been fun following both the AL and NL wild card races. I might enjoy baseball a little too much.
 
#884      
champaignchris
The guy that I insisted upthread was not Greg Maddux is looking an awful lot like Greg Maddux tonight.

Prove me wrong Kyle!
 
#887      
IanKEvans2
Cyle was unreal tonight.

And now Maddon just got tossed. Close this one out, get the win, and pick up 2 games in the magic number column.

EDIT: [ W ]

Magic number down to 3.
 
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#888      
champaignchris
Since mid-June, in his last 15 starts and a random relief appearance, Kyle Hendricks is 11-1 with a 1.27 ERA over 99.1 innings and a .193 batting average against, giving up only 68 hits and 24 walks. He has almost as many strikeouts (91) as he does hits and walks combined.

Lester is also having an amazing year. To call it a "bounce back" would be to undersell how well he pitched last year, but he's quite clearly taken it up a notch this year.

Having Lester, Hendricks, and now Montgomery (3.64 ERA in his six starts between the Mariners and Cubs) all signed long-term make me feel quite a bit better about things after 2017 when Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel all hit the free agent market.
 
#889      
Illiniaaron
champaignchris said:
Since mid-June, in his last 15 starts and a random relief appearance, Kyle Hendricks is 11-1 with a 1.27 ERA over 99.1 innings and a .193 batting average against, giving up only 68 hits and 24 walks. He has almost as many strikeouts (91) as he does hits and walks combined.

Lester is also having an amazing year. To call it a "bounce back" would be to undersell how well he pitched last year, but he's quite clearly taken it up a notch this year.

Having Lester, Hendricks, and now Montgomery (3.64 ERA in his six starts between the Mariners and Cubs) all signed long-term make me feel quite a bit better about things after 2017 when Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel all hit the free agent market.
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Lester and Hendricks have been so good and Arrietta has been sketchy enough in the second half that I think the rotation for the divisional playoff should be Lester-Hendricks-Arrietta-Lackey.
 
#890      
IanKEvans2
Illiniaaron said:
Lester and Hendricks have been so good and Arrietta has been sketchy enough in the second half that I think the rotation for the divisional playoff should be Lester-Hendricks-Arrietta-Lackey.
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I can't complain with that order of rotation, especially when considering the home/road splits. Obviously Maddon rolls with the 3 horses for games 1, 2 & 3, but who gets the road start in game 3? Hendricks, I believe, is a must start in game 2. That leaves Arrieta/Lester for game 1/3.

Hendricks:
-Home: 1.21 ERA, 2.61 FIP
-Road: 2.90 ERA, 4.21 FIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12049&position=P&season=2016

Lester:
-Home: 1.91 ERA, 3.33 FIP
-Road: 3.13 ERA, 3.77 FIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&season=2016

Arrieta:
-Home: 2.70 ERA, 3.04 FIP
-Road: 3.11 ERA, 3.91 FIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4153&position=P&season=2016

Lackey:
-Home: 2.44 ERA, 3.52 FIP
-Road: 4.54 ERA, 3.99 FIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1507&position=P&season=2016

My gut is telling me Arrieta-Hendricks-Lester, but my brain is telling me Lester-Hendricks-Arrieta.
 
#891      
champaignchris
I think match ups will play a role.

For example, the Dodgers and Giants struggle so much against left-handed pitching, it almost has to be Lester to open the series against either of those teams.
 
#894      
IanKEvans2
Division cannot be clinched in STL with the loss tonight.

Fingers crossed for a division title at Wrigley this weekend!
 
#896      
champaignchris
The Cubs have clinched at least a play-in game.

Their magic number for the division is 1.

Their magic number for hosting the divisional series is 7.

Their magic number for clinching the best record in the NL and home field until the World Series is 11.
 
#897      
IanKEvans2
champaignchris said:
The Cubs have clinched at least a play-in game.

Their magic number for the division is 1.

Their magic number for hosting the divisional series is 7.

Their magic number for clinching the best record in the NL and home field until the World Series is 11.
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Nats are playing very well lately, too. Losing Strasburg is a major blow to their rotation though.
 
#898      
champaignchris
Trea Turner's emergence has really solidified their lineup.

Still, they only have two top-flight starting pitchers and Dusty Baker managing them. I just can't imagine a Joe Maddon managed team losing to a Dusty Baker managed team in a 7-game series, especially missing Strasburg, pitching Gio Gonzalez in game 3 and (anonymous) in game four.

I see that Dodgers team as a lot more of a threat, with thunder up and down the lineup, a healthy Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill pitching out of his mind, and Puig possibly having his head screwed back on right.
 
#899      
champaignchris
National League contenders over their last 50 games (more or less since the rosters stabilized after the trade deadline).

Cubs 35-15
Nationals 30-20
Dodgers 29-21
Mets 26-24 (started 9-17 and have gone 17-7 since)
Cardinals 25-25
Giants 20-30

It's really hard for me to believe the Giants make the playoffs. The Cards have been sort of floating along and the Mets have been extremely streaky, but the Giants have been just plain bad. They don't have much starting pitching behind Mad Bum and Cueto, their bullpen stinks, and they're really not getting much offense out of anyone besides Belt, Posey and Pence.
 
#900      
IanKEvans2
Quite the annoying game tonight. Handful of players looked off (Russell in particular).

Cubs clinch the division with a Cardinals loss tonight to the Giants (currently tied 2-2).
 
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