Chicago Cubs 2017 Season

#301      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Rumors swirling of the Cubs being close to acquiring Tigers RP Justin Wilson.

EDIT: And catcher Alex Avila.

Done.

Avila and Wilson to Cubs for Jeimer Candelario, Isaac Paredes and a PTBNL or cash.
 
#302      
Wilson is under team control through 2018.

So he could be the closer next year.

Given that Candeleirio was blocked and everyone knew it, this was a pretty good haul.

A little odd for the Tigers since 3rd base is one of the few places they have a decent, young starter in Nick Castellanos. Not sure what their plan is there.
 
#303      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Given that Candeleirio was blocked and everyone knew it, this was a pretty good haul.

A little odd for the Tigers since 3rd base is one of the few places they have a decent, young starter in Nick Castellanos. Not sure what their plan is there.

Candelario played 12 games at 1B last year and has played there as well this year.
 
#304      
Yeah. They probably plan on one of Costellanos or Candelerio at 1st base, with Miggy to the DH.

Cabrera is signed for 6 more years at $30+ million per year. All time great player. Sure fire HoFer. But the last few years of that contract are going to be hard to swallow.

They're also on the hook for $18 million to a 39-year-old Victor Martinez next year.

They're paying Jordan Zimmerman, currently with a 5.69 era, $25 million a year for 3 more years. That makes two more years of Verlander at $28 million per look reasonable.
 
#305      
Yeah. They probably plan on one of Costellanos or Candelerio at 1st base, with Miggy to the DH.

Cabrera is signed for 6 more years at $30+ million per year. All time great player. Sure fire HoFer. But the last few years of that contract are going to be hard to swallow.

They're also on the hook for $18 million to a 39-year-old Victor Martinez next year.

They're paying Jordan Zimmerman, currently with a 5.69 era, $25 million a year for 3 more years. That makes two more years of Verlander at $28 million per look reasonable.

I'd guess Castellanos moves somewhere to the OF, with Candelario at 3B and Cabrera at first. With time and wear, DH seems like an appropriate fit for Cabrera, which gives Detroit some flexibility with Candelario and Castellanos, even with Martinez on the books for next year.

Regarding Zimmermann, such an interesting descent. Had very strong seasons from 2011-2015, then fell off the rails after signing a big contract in Detroit. He pitched for my alma mater at UW-Stevens Point, so I have tried to follow his career the best I can.
 
#306      
As the farm is relatively depleted and there doesn't seem to be an inclination of any active roster players being dealt, I can't imagine the Cubs making any more deadline moves.

With that said, this is a team that can be scary in a playoff series. I'd argue that both the bullpen and maybe even the rotation are now better than last season's. As long as the bats stick around, the rest of this season will be a lot of fun to watch!
 
#307      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
Wilson is under team control through 2018.

So he could be the closer next year.

Given that Candeleirio was blocked and everyone knew it, this was a pretty good haul.

A little odd for the Tigers since 3rd base is one of the few places they have a decent, young starter in Nick Castellanos. Not sure what their plan is there.

Agreed on the good haul. I like this trade.
 
#308      
Dodgers with some big-time deadline moves, adding Yu Darvish, Tony Watson, and Tony Cingrani.

To put the Dodgers' 2017 season into context, they are 10 games up on the 2016 Cubs through 105 games.
 
#309      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
Dodgers with some big-time deadline moves, adding Yu Darvish, Tony Watson, and Tony Cingrani.

To put the Dodgers' 2017 season into context, they are 10 games up on the 2016 Cubs through 105 games.

They will be tough to beat.
 
#310      
They will be tough to beat.

Meh. The Nats, DBacks, Astros, Indians, etc, will all be tough to beat, too.

The Cubs were the prohibitive favorites last year and they won by the skin of their teeth. And were the first team with the best record in baseball to win the WS in a decade or so.

The Dodgers have the best chance to win. But Dodgers versus the field, the smart bet is still the field. Even if the Dodgers have a 75% chance to win each playoff series (too high a number IMO), that still leaves them with only about a 42% chance of winning the WS.

Let's not forget that Kershaw has an injury history and is on the DL right now, and Darvish, Hill, and Wood all also have injury histories. If one or two of those guys are hurt for a series, the Dodgers suddenly look very mortal.
 
#311      
Amendment - The Cubs weren't the first team with the best record in a decade to win it all. They were the second team since the new playoff format went into effect. The 2013 Red Sox were tied with the Cards for the best record in baseball with 97 wins.

I think my point holds though. The playoffs are a crapshoot where all the odds evening of the 162 grind get thrown out in a mad dash of small sample size randomness. Every team that makes the playoffs is a good team capable of beating another good team 4 games out of 7.
 
#312      

KBLEE

Montgomery, IL
Another way to look at it is that there have been 5 wild card teams (25%) to win the World Series since 1997.
 
#313      
Amendment - The Cubs weren't the first team with the best record in a decade to win it all. They were the second team since the new playoff format went into effect. The 2013 Red Sox were tied with the Cards for the best record in baseball with 97 wins.

I think my point holds though. The playoffs are a crapshoot where all the odds evening of the 162 grind get thrown out in a mad dash of small sample size randomness. Every team that makes the playoffs is a good team capable of beating another good team 4 games out of 7.

You are thinking of the stat that since 1986 Mets, there have been almost 30 100 win teams, but the only ones to win the World Series are the 1998 Yankees, the 2009 Yankees, and the 2016 Cubs.
 
#314      
Another way to look at it is that there have been 5 wild card teams (25%) to win the World Series since 1997.

Well until 3 years ago they were 25% (2 out of 8) participants in the post season, so that seems about right if the theory is "playoffs are random".

I like the 1 game wildcard, because it puts extra incentive on getting the best overall record (get to face the #2 pitcher of the wildcard team) and on winning your division (avoid a coin flip wildcard game), while giving us a tense game 7 like atmosphere to kick off the playoffs.
 
#317      

South Farms

near Ogden & Rt 83
14-3 since the break.

pretty sweet. the pitchers are in a groove and the hitters are all starting to work their way to their expected totals.

It would be nice to finish higher than the Nats, I don't think we can catch the Dodgers with the .708 clip they have put up after 106 games. I don't think they can win 115 games, but if they just go .500 the rest of the way they win 103, and I don't see us doing that, as we would have to go 47-10 the rest of the way to win 104.

Let that sink in. Dodgers can go 28 - 28 and we need to go 46-11 to tie them.

yikes. no wonder the Giants are like 63 games back :)
 
#318      

Deleted member 16340

D
Guest
Well, the good news is that we only need to go 4-3 in the playoffs against them:D:p
 
#320      
Hopefully a dose of Edwin Jackson from the Nationals can snap the Cubs out of this mini-funk they're in the midst of.
 
#323      

bdutts

Houston, Texas
The dreaded 8th inning spoils another fine day at the plate by Contreras.

Edwards has had a rough go of it the past couple of weeks. In looking at his numbers, just about everything is the same as last year except walks. He's way up on walks.
 
#324      
Edwards has had a rough go of it the past couple of weeks. In looking at his numbers, just about everything is the same as last year except walks. He's way up on walks.

Yeah. He's lost control of his fastball. Carlos Marmol disease.

Kid's too good for it to last long, but those last couple blowups hurt.