Chicago Cubs 2017 Season

#51      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Comeback Cubs! [ W ] #7

It was getting a bit ugly the last few games. Easy to forget that it's only April, and we fans were spoiled with the incredible start last season.
 
#52      

Hoppy2105

H
Little Rock, Arkansas
Hoppy2105
IanKEvans2 said:
Comeback Cubs! [ W ] #7

It was getting a bit ugly the last few games. Easy to forget that it's only April, and we fans were spoiled with the incredible start last season.
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I saw that little losing streak and began to think, "here we go again..." but then I realized I'm a Cubs fan! We're reigning world champs! So I quickly brushed it off and waited for the next win to come in. :D
 
#58      

mattcoldagelli

mattcoldagelli
The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
mattcoldagelli
You remember when people poo-poo'd the Addison Russell trade because "the Cubs needed pitching, not more hitting"?

People are so dumb, man.
 
#59      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
mattcoldagelli said:
You remember when people poo-poo'd the Addison Russell trade because "the Cubs needed pitching, not more hitting"?

People are so dumb, man.
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Similar, albeit quieter, groans were made when Andrew Cashner was dealt for Anthony Rizzo.

What Theo & Company have accomplished with this will be documented in baseball history as the model to rebuild a franchise. It has been a joy to watch the entire process unfold.
 
#67      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
champaignchris said:
Then: "Cubs fans are so stupid. They keep showing up even though their team always sucks."

Now: "Look at all the bandwagon fans."
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LsMdHf4.gif
 
#68      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
I predicted before the season started that both Jay and Heyward would have a higher WAR by seasons end than Dexter Fowler.

Fowler has played 9 years. Heyward and Jay have each played 7. Heyward has had a better WAR in 5 of his 7 seasons and tied Fowler once. Jay has had a better WAR in 3 of his 7, but has missed half a season with injuries twice. Thus he's had a better WAR than Fowler more often than not when healthy.

So far, 1/9th of the way into the season, I'm doing ok with my prediction. Heyward is at 0.7, Jay at 0.1, and Fowler is at -0.3.

Fowler won't be as bad as he's been so far for the rest of the season. He's going to bounce back to his career norm of "pretty good starter." He's not going to be the All-Star he was last year.

But really, the biggest threat to my prediction might be Albert Almora playing so well that Jay doesn't get enough playing time. He's been fantastic.
 
#69      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
I really don't like Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Would much rather see him in #4 or #5 slot.
 
#70      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Illiniaaron said:
I really don't like Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Would much rather see him in #4 or #5 slot.
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From your point of view, what makes you feel that way? Or, who would you rather see there?

Personally, I like what he and his .361 OBP brings to the leadoff position. Without Fowler, the roster doesn't seem to have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Maybe Zobrist, but he's been struggling with the bat and a tight back to start the season. And with the way Heyward is hitting, I say don't mess with where he's at.
 
#71      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
IanKEvans2 said:
From your point of view, what makes you feel that way? Or, who would you rather see there?

Personally, I like what he and his .361 OBP brings to the leadoff position. Without Fowler, the roster doesn't seem to have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Maybe Zobrist, but he's been struggling with the bat and a tight back to start the season. And with the way Heyward is hitting, I say don't mess with where he's at.
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I do admit he is finding ways to get on base but he hasn't been hitting much for average or driving in runs. I think he is personally struggling with the role myself; certainly willing to admit I'm wrong. Definitely would not put Zobrist there. I would like to see either Hayward or the Jay/Almora platoon in the leadoff with some more speed. Although to be honest scoring runs is not a problem right now.
 
#74      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
IanKEvans2 said:
Yep, leave Heyward where he is.
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It's really early, so small sample size and whatnot, but thus far, he's striking out at the same rate, walking significantly less, and has a slightly lower percentage of hits for extra bases. He's even hitting the ball on the ground slightly more. The big difference is BABip - .260 last year versus .333 this year.

.260 is unsustainably low and .333 is a bit higher than average.

While BABip can be luck related, the eye test looks like he's hitting the ball much harder than last year. Last year's slow dribblers are scalded shots. One rate stat that backs up the eye test is that (even before tonight's blast) his HR to Fly Out ratio is triple what last year's was. The balls that died on the warning track last year are leaving the yard this year.

Again, early, but very encouraging.
 
#75      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
champaignchris said:
It's really early, so small sample size and whatnot, but thus far, he's striking out at the same rate, walking significantly less, and has a slightly lower percentage of hits for extra bases. He's even hitting the ball on the ground slightly more. The big difference is BABip - .260 last year versus .333 this year.

.260 is unsustainably low and .333 is a bit higher than average.

While BABip can be luck related, the eye test looks like he's hitting the ball much harder than last year. Last year's slow dribblers are scalded shots. One rate stat that backs up the eye test is that (even before tonight's blast) his HR to Fly Out ratio is triple what last year's was. The balls that died on the warning track last year are leaving the yard this year.

Again, early, but very encouraging.
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I always appreciate your analysis, champaignchris!

Off topic, and resulting from a recency bias stemming from stranding the tying run at third, but Koji Uehara has been a great signing thus far. Nailbiter in Pittsburgh!