Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

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#401      
Heisenbobble
The data is the data. It's not unfair. Are you saying Illinois likely won't get a coach as good as Underwood if he leaves in the near future?

I don't dislike him at all by the way. I'm fighting this argument that lowly Illinois couldn't possibly get a coach as good as him again.
 
#402      
WyattEarp
21ChampaignSt said:
Just because I was curious, here are the programs over the last four years that have made it the second weekend multiple times without missing the tournament. I'd love to be on this list and certainly we can be and have been. But the point is some people are calling for our coach to be fired because he hasn't done something that only 7 coaches have. And we (some of us anyway) assume that a shiny new coach is going to waltz right in and do it no sweat.

Anyway, here's the list:
UConn
Purdue
Gonzaga
Creighton
Houston
Alabama
SDSU

And if you want to narrow it to teams who have multiple second weekends and no missed tourneys in the last five years (according to KenPom's 2020 projected seeds) the list looks like this:
Gonzaga
Creighton
Houston
SDSU
Click to expand...
Hmmm hmm…very true.

The extreme version of the two opposing narratives:

1.) The first narrative goes something just like you said…The coach waltzes right in and turns it around overnight, no sweat (as you say)…almost immediately starts winning…and not only starts winning but improves upon the VERY significant success that Brad has had here. Improving, to the point that this new coach even does something that is nearly impossible and brings back hardware on multiple years; and in short order. The odds of that happening in 8-10 years are fairly low. (But it could, however unlikely.) The odds of that happening in the first 1-3 years is astronomically low. Also…
How many great coaches have NEVER been to a final four? Let alone a Natty? Period. (I would also add that the talent pool for perspective new hires is relatively small.) This narrative gets dismissed as more or less: bratty, spoiled, pampered, entitled, ingrates by the opposition. (not nice)

2.) The second narrative takes it to the extreme the other way…and goes something like: If Underwood leaves or is fired we’re totally screwed. There is no way, anyone could ever accomplish what Underwood has done here! This narrative tends to focus on the dark, lost years from late Weber to Groce (not Kruger or Self) and assumes that is the past that we would automatically return to if Underwood were to no longer be here. This narrative is usually accompanied by an emphatic reminder of Brad’s resume and a history lesson for good measure…that doesnt always allow for changes in an era that directly effects roster construction. (In other words, if you’re Illinois it’s quicker/easier to legally build a roster than it was in 1993…harder to keep them tho. lol) This narrative generally fails to acknowledge the serious
upgrade we have in AD over the aforementioned dark ages.
This narrative is usually labeled the Illini inferiority Complex..and sometimes more harshly it is labeled a losers mentality. (harsh)

Honestly, I think that both narratives make some sense. But I also think they’re both kinda silly too; just in different ways.
 
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#404      
USAFILLINI
One second weekend in his entire career? It’s a telling fact, hard to get around it.

Those saying it will set us back 4-5 years aren’t taking into consideration the NIL effect. You can reset an entire team year to year , and HS recruiting isn’t as big of a deal.

I’m on the boat of BU bringing in serious assistants and sticking around, but I fear his stubbornness might be his downfall. We gotta get out of this loser mentality that we will go back to what we were. As long as we have JW and the boosters are willing to pitch in, we should have a team that’s going to sweet 16s at minimum every year.
 
#405      
BackThatPassUp
Heisenbobble said:
One second-weekend appearance in all his years here. I think Illinois can find a coach that matches that. Our fan base is so broken.
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Nuance is everything sometimes. Prior to 2020 we were trying to bring in a power 5 roster so that took two seasons which was reasonable since the portal didn't function the same way it does today.

One could arguably say the covid year 2020 squad couldn't done some damage as a 6 seed and made the sweet 16. We all know what happened with the 2021 squad that played an underrated in state opponent in Loyola. In 2022 we played another underrated Houston squad who in my opinion is comparable to their squad this year. People forget Trent had a bad shoulder and one eye. 2023 was just going no where due to a lack of cohesion. 2024 was solid and 202t is still TBD.
 
#406      
Yes33
Brad’s agent works for Brad. All Brad has to do is say STOP, and the agent stops. If this continues to happen and Brad / his agent are soliciting other offers, we should be proactive and find the best replacement.
 
#407      
Yes33
If we have two young guys making major coaching decisions. Brad is stupid and deserves to be fired! They should be apprentices and in support roles, not leadership!
 
#408      
Yes33
I think if we go for a proven coach, Miller / Beard / Wade, we will be fine, maybe better. If we go for bottom feeders, like Groce, yes we have risk.
 
#409      
illinitiger
21ChampaignSt said:
Just because I was curious, here are the programs over the last four years that have made it the second weekend multiple times without missing the tournament. I'd love to be on this list and certainly we can be and have been. But the point is some people are calling for our coach to be fired because he hasn't done something that only 7 coaches have. And we (some of us anyway) assume that a shiny new coach is going to waltz right in and do it no sweat.

Anyway, here's the list:
UConn
Purdue
Gonzaga
Creighton
Houston
Alabama
SDSU

And if you want to narrow it to teams who have multiple second weekends and no missed tourneys in the last five years (according to KenPom's 2020 projected seeds) the list looks like this:
Gonzaga
Creighton
Houston
SDSU
Click to expand...
So this points to blue bloods like Kansas and former blue blood indiana going after McDermott at Creighton or Dutcher at SDSU.
 
#410      
21ChampaignSt
WyattEarp said:
Hmmm hmm…very true.

The extreme version of the two opposing narratives:

1.) The first narrative goes something just like you said…The coach waltzes right in and turns it around overnight, no sweat (as you say)…almost immediately starts winning…and not only starts winning but improves upon the VERY significant success that Brad has had here. Improving, to the point that this new coach even does something that is nearly impossible and brings back hardware on multiple years; and in short order. The odds of that happening in 8-10 years are fairly low. (But it could, however unlikely.) The odds of that happening in the first 1-3 years is astronomically low. Also…
How many great coaches have NEVER been to a final four? Let alone a Natty? Period. (I would also add that the talent pool for perspective new hires is relatively small.) This narrative gets dismissed as more or less: bratty, spoiled, pampered, entitled, ingrates by the opposition. (not nice)

2.) The second narrative takes it to the extreme the other way…and goes something like: If Underwood leaves or is fired we’re totally screwed. There is no way, anyone could ever accomplish what Underwood has done here! This narrative tends to focus on the dark, lost years from late Weber to Groce (not Kruger or Self) and assumes that is the past that we would automatically return to if Underwood were to no longer be here. This narrative is usually accompanied by an emphatic reminder of Brad’s resume and a history lesson for good measure…that doesnt always allow for changes in an era that directly effects roster construction. (In other words, if you’re Illinois it’s quicker/easier to legally build a roster than it was in 1993…harder to keep them tho. lol) This narrative generally fails to acknowledge the serious
upgrade we have in AD over the aforementioned dark ages.
This narrative is usually labeled the Illini inferiority Complex..and sometimes more harshly it is labeled a losers mentality. (harsh)

Honestly, I think that both narratives make some sense. But I also think they’re both kinda silly too; just in different ways.
Click to expand...
Yep, spot on. And of course, the truth is in the middle. We're a top 15 program historically, and at least as long as JW is in charge, we'll stay a top 10-15 program regardless of who is on the sideline.
 
#411      
OrangeBlue98
This is why I sometimes make the "Basketball Ron Zook" comparisons with Underwood. I just don't feel like you can just throw the "dudes" out there and tell them "figure it out". Look at UConn the last two seasons. Sure, they had a lot of talent. But their coach had an elite offensive system that had patterns of play. Yes, players could read the play and make adjustments and alterations. But Dan Hurley didn't just throw his guys out there and say "Figure out the mismatches".

So just like most things in life, multiple things can be true. Underwood has done a lot of things right, but I do think he relies too much on "having better dudes" than the other team without really having a solid system on both ends of the floor. When you have players like Domask and Shannon, that can work. But at some point, you won't have "better dudes" than the other team and your system better be something that can work when you don't have the two best players on the floor most of the time.
 
#412      
OrangeBlue98
Illini in Italy said:
If Brad leaves, whether he jumps or is pushed, we will right back to aiming for mediocrity and will far short of it.
Click to expand...
We are a completely different program than 20 years ago or 10 years ago. Most importantly, we have an AD who actually wants to win and is someone coaches clearly want to work for. This is not when Ron Guenther only cared about a coach being loyal or when Mike Thomas fired Zook and Weber and couldn't hire a coach because no one wanted to work for him.

While there is nothing certain in life, I am confident that if Josh Whitman is faced with a new head basketball coaching hire that he's going to nail the hire. We are not going to drop back to the late Weber and Groce years.
 
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#413      
Poe's Law
Heisenbobble said:
One second-weekend appearance in all his years here. I think Illinois can find a coach that matches that. Our fan base is so broken.
Click to expand...
But look at what he took over! So let’s discount “all his years” and look at post Covid era.

17 teams have multiple sweet 16’s in the last 4 tourneys:

UCONN
Bama
Creighton
Gonzaga
Houston
SDSU
Tennessee
Miami (coach retiring)
Iowa St
UNC (would Hubert Davis be an upgrade?)
UCLA
Purdue
Arizona
Michigan (Juwan’s already available)
Villanova (Jay Wright ain’t walking through that door)

As much as I’m hungry for post season success, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture and acknowledge there is a fair amount of luck that goes into making the second weekend.

Other teams with only one second weekend in that time frame: Kansas, Baylor, Xavier, Oregon and on the other end of that spectrum St Peter’s, Oral Robert’s, Princeton.
 
#414      
band camp
jumpingjack said:
Any chance that TA sticks around or has that ship sailed?.
Click to expand...
chicago fire GIF by NBC
 
#415      
21ChampaignSt
Poe's Law said:
But look at what he took over! So let’s discount “all his years” and look at post Covid era.

17 teams have multiple sweet 16’s in the last 4 tourneys:

UCONN
Bama
Creighton
Gonzaga
Houston
SDSU
Tennessee
Miami (coach retiring)
Iowa St
UNC (would Hubert Davis be an upgrade?)
UCLA
Purdue
Arizona
Michigan (Juwan’s already available)
Villanova (Jay Wright ain’t walking through that door)

As much as I’m hungry for post season success, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture and acknowledge there is a fair amount of luck that goes into making the second weekend.

Other teams with only one second weekend in that time frame: Kansas, Baylor, Xavier, Oregon and on the other end of that spectrum St Peter’s, Oral Robert’s, Princeton.
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Also, like I pointed out, of those teams with multiple S16's, most of them have also missed the tournament in that time frame. We're upset this year because we might play our way onto the bubble. Imagine if BU missed the tournament altogether.

Speaking of which, here are the teams who have longer active tournament streaks than us. I'm including 2020.

MSU - 27
Gonzaga - 26
Houston - 7
Baylor - 6
Kansas - 6
 
#416      
PortalGiant
Illini in Italy said:
We’re in agreement here. But the data shows pretty clear (see Robert’s multiple analyses over the years) that a coaching changes causes an almost immediate 4-5 year reset in team performance. We CANNOT go back to that.
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Yeah pre NIL that would of been true. In the NIL era it wouldn't take nearly as long as that. Especially if you have a top 10 NIL. Just look at Pitino and St. Johns.
 
#420      
Heisenbobble
So actual data is iffy, but these crazy what-ifs and excuses are perfectly acceptable to prop up Underwood's post-season success? C'mon now with this stuff!
 
#423      
mysterio2525
OrangeBlue98 said:
We are a completely different program than 20 years ago or 10 years ago. Most importantly, we have an AD who actually wants to win and is someone coaches clearly want to work for. This is not when Ron Guenther only cared about a coach being loyal or when Mike Thomas fired Zook and Weber and couldn't hire a coach because no one wanted to work for him.

While there is nothing certain in life, I am confident that if Josh Whitman is faced with a new head basketball coaching hire that he's going to nail the hire. We are not going to drop back to the late Weber and Groce years.
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I tend to agree. We aren't even a football school and Josh nailed that hire. I don't think we are near the point of hot seat for Brad yet... But adjustments need to be made on his coaching staff for sure. Recruiting I give a pass as he had shown to bring in talent consistently
 
#424      
bluemountain
BfosterL said:
The ONLY way Brad is not here next year it would because he chose to leave. Josh does NOT have him on the hotseat whatsoever. FACT.

For those who continue to rake Brad Underwood over the coals, 2 things to consider: 1) Learn your Illinois basketball history 2) We have become spoiled by the success BU has brought Illinois over the last 5 years. I grew up watching Lou Henson (and was/am a huge fan of his) and he is considered the gold standard here because he did bring the Illinois program to national relevance, so a few facts surrounding the Lou Henson tenure:
-In 21 years at Illinois, Lou led Illinois to the NCAA tournament 12 times (57% of the time)
-4 Sweet 16’s in 21 years (19% of the time) – Average of 1 Sweet 16 every 5 years
-2 Elite Eights (9% of the time) – Average of 1 Elite 8 every 10 years
-1 Final Four (4% of the time) – Average of 1 Final Four every 21 years
-1 Big Ten Championship (4% of the time) – Average of 1 Final Four every 21 years
-Lou did not make the NCAA tournament until his 5th year at Illinois
This is not a knock-on Lou Henson, I’m thankful for his huge contributions to Illinois basketball; however, Brad Underwood is ahead of where Lou Henson was 8 years into his career at Illinois. You should be thankful that we have reached the point where we lost 97% of our scoring from last year, start 3 first year college players, and have a NET 19 ranking that leaves you whining about losses. That means the Illinois basketball program has reached its highest level in 20 years and we have Brad Underwood and staff to thank for that.
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You can also look at '97-'06 as your benchmark. Coming off an NIT season in '96, we proceeded to have over the next 10 years

9 tourney appearances
1 Final game appearance
2 elite 8's
4 Sweet 16's
No first round exits
5 Big 10 titles

A 50% conference championship win rate is unrealistic, but the other metrics are all reasonable objectives for our program
 
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