Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

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#101      
lstewart53x3
poor dirt farmer said:
As has been said ad nauseam people want to work for our AD our school has a lot more to offer than most. Coaches want to go where they can win. Carolina will hire one coach there are plenty of others mainly if Sean Miller would come to Illinois that would be a huge next step.
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So wait, you want to replace Brad Underwood with Sean Miller?

Let’s compare the two. Over the past 6 years:

Brad Underwood’s record: 136-60 (69.3%)
Sean Miller’s record: 115-72 (61.4%)

In that time frame, Brad has:

- 2 conference championships (‘21 counts) + one 2nd place finish. Average finish: 3.3. Worst finish: 5th out of 14 teams (this year will likely be lower, maybe 7th out of 18).
- 6 NCAAT appearances
- 1 Elite Eight

Sean Miller has:

- 0 conference championships. One 2nd place finish. Average finish: 5.1. Worst finish: 9th. Out of 11 teams. Just last year.
- 2 NCAA tournament appearances (sanctions impacted this). Missed the tournament last year and lost in the first round of the NIT. TeamRankings gives Xavier a 56% chance of making it this year.
- 1 Sweet Sixteen. 0 Elite Eights. Has never made the final four, just like Brad. Last Elite Eight was a decade ago.
 
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#102      
BretMyBeachHouse
illini0440 said:
1. 8th in the country in PPG, 26th in scoring margin, top 20 in Offensive efficiency. Been that way for awhile just because the X and O's are different than what a lot of fans are accustomed to and the adjustments off that are different and slight doesn't mean they aren't good/aren't happening.
2.What 7 or 8 coaches are going to be available that would strengthen the basketball program?
3. Do you understand how challenging it is to be a final 4 contender every year? Kansas hasn't been since 2022, MSU 2019 Arizona 2001, Kentucky 2015
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I've had plenty of criticism of Underwood. But this basically is right. Currently, Oats is the only guy I feel you could grab and see a significant move up.

There's a handful of others who are substantially better but likely on the way out soon.

I think Underwood’s deficiencies make it hard for him to string together five wins against top programs to win a title.

But the hope is you get lucky as so many have. You hope someone does the heavy lifting a couple times in the tourney.

It would be great to see Underwood grow and shed a few deficiencies. I'm not optimistic on that front.

Stay the course. Grumble if you must, like I do. But you're very unlikely to get an upgrade.
 
#103      
USAFILLINI
the juiceman cometh said:
It's not a false equivalence, it's hyperbole, a common rhetorical device in which exaggeration is used to emphasize a point, often with comedic effect.

The point I was attempting to make is that the existence of a Coaching Carousel thread does not require anyone to argue our coach should be replaced, and does not in itself justify taking that position. I could have pointed out that a Football Coaching Carousel thread exists, but nobody is advocating for Bielema to be replaced. That would have been more direct and on the nose. But I chose to employ hyperbole, so went with a more ridiculous example, to emphasize the ridiculousness of invoking the name of the thread in justifying your argument.
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scared shower GIF by ADWEEK
 
#104      
BashCtIllini
lstewart53x3 said:
So wait, you want to replace Brad Underwood with Sean Miller?

Let’s compare the two. Over the past 6 years:

Brad Underwood’s record: 136-60 (69.3%)
Sean Miller’s record: 115-72 (61.4%)

In that time frame, Brad has:

- 2 conference championships (‘21 counts) + one 2nd place finish. Average finish: 3.3. Worst finish: 5th out of 14 teams (this year will likely be lower, maybe 7th out of 18).
- 6 NCAAT appearances
- 1 Elite Eight

Sean Miller has:

- 0 conference championships. One 2nd place finish. Average finish: 5.1. Worst finish: 9th. Out of 11 teams. Just last year.
- 2 NCAA tournament appearances (sanctions impacted this). Missed the tournament last year and lost in the first round of the NIT. TeamRankings gives Xavier a 56% chance of making it this year.
- 1 Sweet Sixteen. 0 Elite Eights. Has never made the final four, just like Brad. Last Elite Eight was a decade ago.
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if it was as simple as comparing records, no one would ever make the wrong hire, no one would ever flop, and you'd always select the best possible coach.
 
#105      
lstewart53x3
BashCtIllini said:
if it was as simple as comparing records, no one would ever make the wrong hire, no one would ever flop, and you'd always select the best possible coach.
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Sure. But I’d take Brad’s last 6 over Sean’s in a heartbeat. If Sean brought that kind of ball here, he wouldn’t last 3 years.

The criticism of Brad is that he hasn’t made the final four. Neither has Sean. Over the past couple of years, Sean struggles to even make the tournament.

Replacing a guy who made the E8 last year with a guy who didn’t even make the tournament last year would be an interesting choice.
 
#106      
IlliniCC16
illini0440 said:
You must not see me post once a week telling people Tyler isn't going to be fired or demoted. But Why should he? We are 8th in PPG, top 20 in offensive efficiency and that's with career shooting lows from our guys. Offense was pretty good last year too. It's Tyler, Geoff and Brad collectively doing the heavy lifting on offense....Not just Tyler. Also Tyler is pretty cheap in terms of assistants and Brad isn't going to fire or demote his son and come home to Susan and deal with that lol
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Noted...kind of what I suspected. Thanks!
 
#108      
JD76
BretMyBeachHouse said:
I've had plenty of criticism of Underwood. But this basically is right. Currently, Oats is the only guy I feel you could grab and see a significant move up.

There's a handful of others who are substantially better but likely on the way out soon.

I think Underwood’s deficiencies make it hard for him to string together five wins against top programs to win a title.

But the hope is you get lucky as so many have. You hope someone does the heavy lifting a couple times in the tourney.

It would be great to see Underwood grow and shed a few deficiencies. I'm not optimistic on that front.

Stay the course. Grumble if you must, like I do. But you're very unlikely to get an upgrade.
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I have been a critic, but he has made some adjustments, and right now the arrow is pointing up. I think he is more smart than stubborn, so let’s see where this goes. Brad has proven he gets players, and that covers some other stuff that many here think are flaws. Let’s just support the team going into tourneys.
 
#109      
BashCtIllini
lstewart53x3 said:
Sure. But I’d take Brad’s last 6 over Sean’s in a heartbeat. If Sean brought that kind of ball here, he wouldn’t last 3 years.

The criticism of Brad is that he hasn’t made the final four. Neither has Sean. Over the past couple of years, Sean struggles to even make the tournament.

Replacing a guy who made the E8 last year with a guy who didn’t even make the tournament last year would be an interesting choice.
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this is not a good argument. You have to look at the situations, especially in the NIL era where it is simply not a level playing field.

I could point to a lot of things that would indicate Miller is the superior coach. The simple fact is, if you try to distill down a complicated decision to most recent records, you're going to make a bad decision.

Shaka Smart was 11-22, 19-15, 21-16, 19-12, 19-8 his 5 seasons before going to Marquette and turning them into a very strong team.
Rick Barnes was pretty mediocre in his conclusion to his career at Texas before taking Tennessee to a perennial top team.
Otzelberger was 17-15 and 12-15 at UNLV before Iowa State hired him.

I'm sure with some research, I could come up with many more names where a coaches most recent record said why did you choose him, just to have that coach go on to great success. If you just look at x amount of years and say there that proves it, you are making a very uninformed decision.
 
#110      
bluemountain
BashCtIllini said:
this is not a good argument. You have to look at the situations, especially in the NIL era where it is simply not a level playing field.

I could point to a lot of things that would indicate Miller is the superior coach. The simple fact is, if you try to distill down a complicated decision to most recent records, you're going to make a bad decision.

Shaka Smart was 11-22, 19-15, 21-16, 19-12, 19-8 his 5 seasons before going to Marquette and turning them into a very strong team.
Rick Barnes was pretty mediocre in his conclusion to his career at Texas before taking Tennessee to a perennial top team.
Otzelberger was 17-15 and 12-15 at UNLV before Iowa State hired him.

I'm sure with some research, I could come up with many more names where a coaches most recent record said why did you choose him, just to have that coach go on to great success. If you just look at x amount of years and say there that proves it, you are making a very uninformed decision.
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Coach K went 9-17 his last year at Army
 
#111      
BretMyBeachHouse
BashCtIllini said:
this is not a good argument. You have to look at the situations, especially in the NIL era where it is simply not a level playing field.

I could point to a lot of things that would indicate Miller is the superior coach. The simple fact is, if you try to distill down a complicated decision to most recent records, you're going to make a bad decision.

Shaka Smart was 11-22, 19-15, 21-16, 19-12, 19-8 his 5 seasons before going to Marquette and turning them into a very strong team.
Rick Barnes was pretty mediocre in his conclusion to his career at Texas before taking Tennessee to a perennial top team.
Otzelberger was 17-15 and 12-15 at UNLV before Iowa State hired him.

I'm sure with some research, I could come up with many more names where a coaches most recent record said why did you choose him, just to have that coach go on to great success. If you just look at x amount of years and say there that proves it, you are making a very uninformed decision.
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There is no proof out there. Even a great coach may lose his edge or the game changes in ways he doesn't adjust.

Only a fool believes that the post Underwood era is a guaranteed success.
 
#113      
artist3
poor dirt farmer said:
As has been said ad nauseam people want to work for our AD our school has a lot more to offer than most. Coaches want to go where they can win. Carolina will hire one coach there are plenty of others mainly if Sean Miller would come to Illinois that would be a huge next step.
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Coaches also want to go where they can win and not be fired for that winning to all of a sudden not be enough.
 
#115      
Navy_illini
this is the best place to put this

Coach of the year criteria has to change. It used to be you were picked to be towards the bottom of the conference and then you exceeded expectations. You would win COY

Unfortunately with the transfer portal the media has no idea how good teams will be. For BTT who do think deserves it?
 
#117      
OrangeKrush1981
Today - Izzo. Last week, Gard and May were in the running. Next week? I'll give the annoying answer: that's why they play the games.
 
#118      
BfosterL
The big donors are very happy with what BU has accomplished at Illinois. If Illinois were to get bounced in the first weekend with a whole new roster it would not be a shock to anyone including the donors. JW and donors know that this is the best regular season run Illinois has had over the last 5 years in the history of the program. The NCAA tourney is a roll of the dice and are confident that success will follow.
 
#119      
BfosterL
If information was obtained from Indy Illini than most likely it is not accurate. Why do you care what BU is making, or if you believe he is overpaid? How much of that money is coming out of your pocket?
 
#120      
Illini 993
For this year, I can't see how anyone beats Greg Gard. The Big 10 preseason media poll picked them for a tie with Nebraska for 12th place. They are currently tied for 3rd. I sure didn't see them as this good before the season. Tonje is probably the best portal add in the 2024 off-season. I suppose there will be support for Izzo, as MSU was picked to finish 5th, but he did get a vote for first.
 
#122      
lstewart53x3
BretMyBeachHouse said:
This is what you've taken from this debate? There are lots of reasons/complaints. FInal four isn't actually one of them.

For my part I want nothing to do with Sean Miller.
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Maybe you haven’t been critical of Brad for not making the final four, but one of the main arguments of this thread is that Brad has underperformed in the post season.

It would be difficult to criticize Brad for the regular season considering ober the past 6 years, he’s the second most winningest coach in the B1G with 2 regular season B1G championships and another 2nd place finish, along with 2 conference tourney titles.
 
#123      
BfosterL
Miller was playing the NIL game at Arizona when NIL wasn't a thing and that gave him a huge advantage, yet he never made a final four.
 
#124      
NarrowJ
lstewart53x3 said:
Maybe you haven’t been critical of Brad for not making the final four, but one of the main arguments of this thread is that Brad has underperformed in the post season.

It would be difficult to criticize Brad for the regular season considering ober the past 6 years, he’s the second most winningest coach in the B1G with 2 regular season B1G championships and another 2nd place finish, along with 2 conference tourney titles.
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Agreed. Before all of the injury/sickness/whatever hubbub, Brad was being talked about by national pundit types as NCOY candidate

It isn't as if he turned into "Sean Miller Lite" overnight

I tend to agree with 0440 and he said it pretty well back on page 2, a lot of the technical aspects of how we are coached, people aren't accustomed to or don't really get, more and more these days its contemporary / NBA type stuff... the timeouts after making a 3 to stop an opponent's run... people complain about that, but it is actually a very tested psychological tactic and your average fan circles aren't really privy to things like that (anyhow, the timeout thing is my own example, but stuff like that is what he was getting at, I think).

But, I don't know, he does certainly seem like more of a CEO type coach who delegates quite a lot, so maybe getting stuck with one less assistant this year hurt us more than we think.
 
#125      
RabidDawgClassic
Navy_illini said:
this is the best place to put this

Coach of the year criteria has to change. It used to be you were picked to be towards the bottom of the conference and then you exceeded expectations. You would win COY

Unfortunately with the transfer portal the media has no idea how good teams will be. For BTT who do think deserves it?
Click to expand...
Izzo and Gard are probably the top choices, perhaps giving the nod to Izzo if he wins the B1G outright. Gard keeps Wisconsin relevant every year. Dusty May honorable mention.
 
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