It'd be on more than just that. At a program that expects final fours and national titles, he has lost to a double digit seed three straight years and has yet to make a final four. He loses all five starters off this years team and has no one signed or committed for next year. And his long-time assistant Book Richardson is facing 60 years of prison time (has an incentive to talk to reduce the sentence), so Miller could easily be implicated in the FBI probe, even if it's not due to paying Ayton.
I agree that the program has high expectations. However, at least on the fan side of things, I haven't seen the furor for Miller's ouster that I expected after the exit from the tournament (I live in Tucson). Given, I don't spend much time with the donor class that would
actually have a voice, but Joe Q. Wildcat fan is still not fully aboard the "Fire Miller" train just yet.
I think that, if he was going to be fired after this season based on what is known now, he would have been fired already. In order for him not to coach here in 2018-2019, the FBI probe is going to have to uncover some real, unassailable dirt on him. This honestly makes the most sense, because the program may have a hard time drawing the level of replacement coaches it otherwise might on account of the uncertainty around the probe.
Now, if he flubs next season, I think there's a much better shot of him being shown the door based on performance.
I have been doubting this more as time goes on. A lot of "experts" will be eating crow. Especially that arrogant Jay Bilas
I saw an article that 247 published recently that basically laid out that the allegations put forth by Schlabach were essentially impossible based on the timing. That's not to say there isn't other shady stuff going on, of course (after all, Book Richardson is one of the people who got caught in the probe), but it seems like the Schlabach report is questionable at best.
Personally, I am just waiting for the dust to settle before I thumb my nose at anyone. Who knows, we may still get caught up in this (or literally any other school, for that matter).