College Hoops Coaching Carousel

sbillini said:

Thanks for the thoughtful post. I generally agree with it. At the risk of stating the obvious, the above is likely the crux of the issue. What is the baseline for success? Is consistency doing the following a sufficient baseline for success? And i'm honestly asking:

- top 20-ish by end of season
- top third of big ten with the occasional win
- consistently making the tourney but consistent first weekend exits

I think the above is a fair, objective assessment of where BU has shown he can do. things deviate a bit one way or the other (the first few years + last year were below, the Ayo+Kofi years were above). But, all in all, this is what we've gotten. as a program, and we've gotten enough years to create a representative sample. should we be satisfied with this? Is there reasonable expectation that we can improve on the above and the ceiling can go higher (historically, slicing and dicing if's/but's as to why "next year will be better and this year was the anomaly", regardless of coach/program, has been a fool's game).

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Illini in Italy said:

Keeping things in perspective, we have an over-inflated sense of self worth on this board. Looking back over the last 50+ years, we've had three periods of sustained success, 1980-1990 Henson) ; 1997-2007 (Kruger/Self/Weber), and 2020-2023 (Underwood)

1968-1979 we were horrible. Schmidt had four winning seasons, 0 B1G championships, 0 tourney appearances, was ranked four seasons at some point in the season, and finished 1 season ranked. Barstow was here one forgettable season, and when Henson took over he had three straight losing seasons to start things off.

1976-1996 under Coach Henson (1 B1G championship, 12 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 FF), 13 seasons ranked at one point in the season, highest ranking 2 (twice, '85 & '89). The best years were 1980-1990, with poor results both at the beginning and the end of his tenure.

1997-2007 were some of the best years to be an Illini fan. (Kruger/Self/Weber) had only one losing season, with Self (1) and Weber (2) both winning B1G titles, (10 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 E8, 1 FF), and were ranked 9 out 11 seasons, highest raking #1 in 2005 under Weber.

2008-2019 were the Dark Ages for Illinois basketball for most of us here on Loyalty. While Weber/Groce/Underwood posted winning seasons in eight out of the 12 seasons, we had 0 B1G titles (average finish in B1G was 8th place. We were ranked 7 out of the 12 seasons, the highest ranking at any point was 11 (2013), but did not end the season ranked in the entire period, with only three NCAA tourney berths in the period.

2020-2023 (Underwood) saw a return to success not seen for more than a decade, with four straight winning seasons, 1 B1G title (and 1 B1G tourney title), four straight seasons ranked, the highest being a #2 in 2021, and three straight tourney berths.

While some argue that Underwood has underperformed, I think history will show his results to rank right up there with the Harry Combes, Lou Henson, and Kruger/Self/Weber periods. Will he meet our expectations? Never, because we always want (expect) a natty. But as our results over the past half century (ponder THAT for a second), winning is hard, and winning in the tourney is harderer . Since 1963 we've won 6 B1G championships, 3 B1G tourney titles (tourney started in 1998), 29 NCAA tourney berths (2 FF, 1 E8, 4 S16). 22 times we've gone to the tourney and lost in the first or second rounds.

Me? I'm gonna sit back, relax with an adult beverage of my choice, and just enjoy the fact that we've got a coach that returned us to being relevant and successful, and hope that the courts, NIL and the portal don't kill this thing that we all seem to love so much.

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Illini in Italy said:

Keeping things in perspective, we have an over-inflated sense of self worth on this board. Looking back over the last 50+ years, we've had three periods of sustained success, 1980-1990 Henson) ; 1997-2007 (Kruger/Self/Weber), and 2020-2023 (Underwood)

1968-1979 we were horrible. Schmidt had four winning seasons, 0 B1G championships, 0 tourney appearances, was ranked four seasons at some point in the season, and finished 1 season ranked. Barstow was here one forgettable season, and when Henson took over he had three straight losing seasons to start things off.

1976-1996 under Coach Henson (1 B1G championship, 12 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 FF), 13 seasons ranked at one point in the season, highest ranking 2 (twice, '85 & '89). The best years were 1980-1990, with poor results both at the beginning and the end of his tenure.

1997-2007 were some of the best years to be an Illini fan. (Kruger/Self/Weber) had only one losing season, with Self (1) and Weber (2) both winning B1G titles, (10 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 E8, 1 FF), and were ranked 9 out 11 seasons, highest raking #1 in 2005 under Weber.

2008-2019 were the Dark Ages for Illinois basketball for most of us here on Loyalty. While Weber/Groce/Underwood posted winning seasons in eight out of the 12 seasons, we had 0 B1G titles (average finish in B1G was 8th place. We were ranked 7 out of the 12 seasons, the highest ranking at any point was 11 (2013), but did not end the season ranked in the entire period, with only three NCAA tourney berths in the period.

2020-2023 (Underwood) saw a return to success not seen for more than a decade, with four straight winning seasons, 1 B1G title (and 1 B1G tourney title), four straight seasons ranked, the highest being a #2 in 2021, and three straight tourney berths.

While some argue that Underwood has underperformed, I think history will show his results to rank right up there with the Harry Combes, Lou Henson, and Kruger/Self/Weber periods. Will he meet our expectations? Never, because we always want (expect) a natty. But as our results over the past half century (ponder THAT for a second), winning is hard, and winning in the tourney is harderer . Since 1963 we've won 6 B1G championships, 3 B1G tourney titles (tourney started in 1998), 29 NCAA tourney berths (2 FF, 1 E8, 4 S16). 22 times we've gone to the tourney and lost in the first or second rounds.

Me? I'm gonna sit back, relax with an adult beverage of my choice, and just enjoy the fact that we've got a coach that returned us to being relevant and successful, and hope that the courts, NIL and the portal don't kill this thing that we all seem to love so much.

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IlliniShelt said:

Can we be happy and appreciative for what Brad has done while also acknowledging that there's only so many times we can be happy exiting the first round of the tourney? Porque no los dos?

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7 Year Illini said:

One of the greatest posts ever, as it should serve as a reminder that our program has not been as successful as we pretend/might like to believe. (doesn't mean we can't want more)

Over a 60 year period we have gone to the S16 or higher only 7 times. Izzo has taken MSU there 15 times with 8 final fours.

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Illini in Italy said:

Keeping things in perspective, we have an over-inflated sense of self worth on this board. Looking back over the last 50+ years, we've had three periods of sustained success, 1980-1990 Henson) ; 1997-2007 (Kruger/Self/Weber), and 2020-2023 (Underwood)

1968-1979 we were horrible. Schmidt had four winning seasons, 0 B1G championships, 0 tourney appearances, was ranked four seasons at some point in the season, and finished 1 season ranked. Barstow was here one forgettable season, and when Henson took over he had three straight losing seasons to start things off.

1976-1996 under Coach Henson (1 B1G championship, 12 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 FF), 13 seasons ranked at one point in the season, highest ranking 2 (twice, '85 & '89). The best years were 1980-1990, with poor results both at the beginning and the end of his tenure.

1997-2007 were some of the best years to be an Illini fan. (Kruger/Self/Weber) had only one losing season, with Self (1) and Weber (2) both winning B1G titles, (10 NCAA appearances (2 S16, 1 E8, 1 FF), and were ranked 9 out 11 seasons, highest raking #1 in 2005 under Weber.

2008-2019 were the Dark Ages for Illinois basketball for most of us here on Loyalty. While Weber/Groce/Underwood posted winning seasons in eight out of the 12 seasons, we had 0 B1G titles (average finish in B1G was 8th place. We were ranked 7 out of the 12 seasons, the highest ranking at any point was 11 (2013), but did not end the season ranked in the entire period, with only three NCAA tourney berths in the period.

2020-2023 (Underwood) saw a return to success not seen for more than a decade, with four straight winning seasons, 1 B1G title (and 1 B1G tourney title), four straight seasons ranked, the highest being a #2 in 2021, and three straight tourney berths.

While some argue that Underwood has underperformed, I think history will show his results to rank right up there with the Harry Combes, Lou Henson, and Kruger/Self/Weber periods. Will he meet our expectations? Never, because we always want (expect) a natty. But as our results over the past half century (ponder THAT for a second), winning is hard, and winning in the tourney is harderer . Since 1963 we've won 6 B1G championships, 3 B1G tourney titles (tourney started in 1998), 29 NCAA tourney berths (2 FF, 1 E8, 4 S16). 22 times we've gone to the tourney and lost in the first or second rounds.

Me? I'm gonna sit back, relax with an adult beverage of my choice, and just enjoy the fact that we've got a coach that returned us to being relevant and successful, and hope that the courts, NIL and the portal don't kill this thing that we all seem to love so much.

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Poe's Law said:

Have we announced any additions to the coaching staff, with the recent NCAA changes? Was thinking we would get 2 new non-recruiting coaches, but didn’t recall seeing an announcement.

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Umit9 said:

While at Illinois, he has only lost once in the First Round. First round record at Illinois is 2-1. But, I get it.

Really hoping he can guide this team to the second weekend next season.
Go Illini

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BretMyBeachHouse said:

Keep reminding about our overall record.

I'll keep reminding about the two 7 year stretches that demonstrate what can be.

If Satan doesn't sidetrack us, we likely continue the 80s stretch well into the 90s.

The other stretch was sidelined by Self leaving and us getting an up and comer coach (who wasn't) instead of a rock solid guy who could continue the momentum of Self and Kruger.

This isn't fantasy. It's happened.

I guess some people find some consolation in achieving the program's mean. I'm not one of those.

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Umit9 said:

While at Illinois, he has only lost once in the First Round. First round record at Illinois is 2-1. But, I get it.

Really hoping he can guide this team to the second weekend next season.
Go Illini

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BashCtIllini said:

Then last year in a tossup game, we got beat by the lower 9 seed.

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BashCtIllini said:

This is a bit of a lazy analysis.

Winning in the 1st round as a #1 seed is nothing to be excited about, unless you're Purdue. If you actually look at Underwood's tournament record at Illinois he has never beat a higher seed.

As a 1 seed the expectation is to make the Final 4 and we got handled easily by an 8 seed in the second round. The following year as a 4 seed the expectation is to make the Sweet 16, we SQUEAKED by the 13 seed after trailing the whole game, then got whipped by a very good 5 seed again in the second round. Then last year in a tossup game, we got beat by the lower 9 seed.

So yes a 2-1 record, but ultimately a critical look shows the tourney record is pretty bad.

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nichi said:

I am pretty sure we were the 9 seed.

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BashCtIllini said:

This is a bit of a lazy analysis.

Winning in the 1st round as a #1 seed is nothing to be excited about, unless you're Purdue. If you actually look at Underwood's tournament record at Illinois he has never beat a higher seed.

As a 1 seed the expectation is to make the Final 4 and we got handled easily by an 8 seed in the second round. The following year as a 4 seed the expectation is to make the Sweet 16, we SQUEAKED by the 13 seed after trailing the whole game, then got whipped by a very good 5 seed again in the second round. Then last year in a tossup game, we got beat by the lower 9 seed.

So yes a 2-1 record, but ultimately a critical look shows the tourney record is pretty bad.

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SkyysNotFalling said:

For anyone who thinks Brad can’t coach…

We had 2 freshman PG’s last year, one quit, a projected starter miss 70% of the season, played a kid like Melendez who couldn’t hit the side of a barn for 2/3 of the season, a freshman big in Dain getting 20+ minutes a night & Matthew Mayer who was either prime T-Mac or a UPS driver depending on if he was wearing a headband or not (wish that was a joke)….

And we damn near finished top 3 in the big ten, and we’re reasonably a lock for the tournament the whole year.

Look at our roster for this upcoming season and we reloaded with talent, experience, size & from all accounts guys that fit the Illini mold. Domask alone was a 4 year starter & an extremely important piece to a very good SIU squad his whole career to this point. Harmon was a 14ppg scorer on a good Utah Valley team, Guerrier has started at a Pac12/ACC school and has even been an all-conference player, TJ & Coleman we know are very good players (also to my earlier point, last year was Coleman’s first real year of being a piece to a Big Ten team, had he ever gotten 20+ MPG before last season? Obviously that comes with ups and downs but now that he has his feet wet I think we know how good he can be), yes we need to add a PG, but I’ll take a healthy Williams over Epps & Skyy anyday.

Think a lot of us will be very very happy with our results next season.

the man’s pretty, pretty good. But what do I know?

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BashCtIllini said:

This is a bit of a lazy analysis.

Winning in the 1st round as a #1 seed is nothing to be excited about, unless you're Purdue. If you actually look at Underwood's tournament record at Illinois he has never beat a higher seed.

As a 1 seed the expectation is to make the Final 4 and we got handled easily by an 8 seed in the second round. The following year as a 4 seed the expectation is to make the Sweet 16, we SQUEAKED by the 13 seed after trailing the whole game, then got whipped by a very good 5 seed again in the second round. Then last year in a tossup game, we got beat by the lower 9 seed.

So yes a 2-1 record, but ultimately a critical look shows the tourney record is pretty bad.

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Umit9 said:

@BashCtIllini

This wasn’t an analysis at all. It simply was a statement of fact.

Also, as mentioned, even with the correction, I got where the poster was coming from. Hence the, “ I get it.”

Analyzing the tournament performance on here under Coach Underwood would take even more time from my life than it already has…

Go Illini

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BashCtIllini said:

This is a bit of a lazy analysis.

Winning in the 1st round as a #1 seed is nothing to be excited about, unless you're Purdue. If you actually look at Underwood's tournament record at Illinois he has never beat a higher seed.

As a 1 seed the expectation is to make the Final 4 and we got handled easily by an 8 seed in the second round. The following year as a 4 seed the expectation is to make the Sweet 16, we SQUEAKED by the 13 seed after trailing the whole game, then got whipped by a very good 5 seed again in the second round. Then last year in a tossup game, we got beat by the lower 9 seed.

So yes a 2-1 record, but ultimately a critical look shows the tourney record is pretty bad.

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Bigtex said:

Underwood is in good company. Illinois ncaa history has 1 win against a higher seed (9 beat 8). That is history…. Let’s assume Illinois is a 7th seed in 23/24. Beat the 10 seed (as expected) and then win again against 2 seed and make it to sweet 16. He will have the most wins in Illinois history (ok tied) against a higher (or lower) seeded team.

Amazing statistic and awful results for our great program.

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21ChampaignSt said:

Good questions. I'm actually working on something in my spare time that I hope will address some of this - particularly, what is an average/successful season historically? And how does BU stack up?

From what I've been looking at (data from 1980 to present, standardized to adjust for era variances like number of games played, teams invited to tourney, etc.) it all depends on your point of reference. But regardless of how you look at it, the BU tenure is very close to our historic standard.

Looking forward to sharing more later this week.

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bluemountain said:

Eh, 4 years is not sustained success. It's certainly better than what preceded it, but too soon to call it sustained - a lot of coaches have flopped after having 4 good seasons.

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illini0440 said:

I mean Geoff is in charge of the offense….and brings nothing to the table recruiting so….

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