Are we seeing any definitive sources clarifying which teams would be in these play-in games? I've seen conflicting statements, as well as one that says it's TBD (which I'm inclined to think is correct since none of the other opinions seem backed by anything authoritative).
College Sports (Basketball)
- Status
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
It's devolving into the NHL playoff slate c. 1980 when 16 of 21 teams would make the playoffs, rendering the regular season meaningless.
It's laid out pretty definitively in Norlander's article: https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...e-basketball-tournaments-to-76-teams-in-2027/
I mean, it's expanding from 68 to 76 of 365 teams (20.8%). It's still the most exclusive tournament in college and professional sports, edging pretty close to baseball now (which is at 22%)
ChazzReinhold
Mom! The Meatloaf!
And in 1985 when it expanded to 64 teams there were 282 div 1 teams. 64/282=22.7%
May as well make it 100 and only the one seeds get byes. If a team is going to complain about being on the wrong side of the bubble they really have no teeth.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Plus, when the tournament originally expanded to 64, there were 282 D1 teams at the time, so 22.7% made the tourney. With 365 teams in D1 today, 76 teams making it is a lower percentage at 20.8% like you said.
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
The difference is that the marginal difference in quality between the top 50 or so colelge basketball teams and the next 25 in the seriatim is substantial. Look at the difference between the 48-68 seeds in the tourney compared with NIT teams, let alone CBI teams.
illinifan31
Former Krush Cow
- South Bend, IN
This just protects higher seeds from getting upset by having more of them playing teams who just played a game two nights earlier, maybe even 2 games more now. The play in teams will be more tired.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Creates a big difference in first round opponent for 1-3 seed vs 4-5. Basically all your 12s and potentially some 13s based on the year could be power teams; then you move up one seed line and you’re playing Penn.
I was going to say that. If we want to be positive about the situation, the #16 seeds and two of the #15 seeds are going to be the best of the low majors and those games vs the #1 and #2 seeds are more likely to stay competitive for a half.Great. Just when the ILL are becoming a perennial 1/2 seed, the 15/16 seeds are getting better. This has Hoosierall over it.
Another positive would be the 12/5 and 11/6 upsets are going to be far more likely. The games involving the lower seeds COULD be more competitive.
Also, at this point, NO TEAM should EVER complain that they didn't make it. If you're #79, you've had a bad year if you're in a power conference. My hope would be that this cleans up the issue with the mid majors who had a GREAT year, but loses in the championship game of their conference tournament. If a team like that gets in over a high major that had a 9-11 conference record, you could probably get me to buy in little more.
Those are all upsides if the NCAA gets it right.
What's far more likely is that this is a TOTAL money grab by the major conferences and the a team like Indiana, who sucked, gets in only because the Big Ten would get a few more bucks by adding another team and it won't be the Missouri Valley, MAC, etc who benefit.
I think it cuts both ways. I'd like to see an analysis, but I think some of those play in games have allowed teams to get their jitters out. So the winner enters the next game with a lot of confidence.
Probably hard to really measure. But if I had a chance as a top seed to play a team with the same rest as me or a team coming off a win, I'd take the team with the rest.
The reality is that with every conference having conference tournaments, every team is in anyway. The playoff you speak of is already in place via Championship Week. You can be 0-30 in the regular season, but if you win your conference tournament.....you're in.
The FAIR thing to do is to eliminate all conference tournaments and the champion of the regular season gets the automatic bid.
The fans would HATE that change because it's one of the best weeks of the year. That said, for those complaining about adding 8 additional teams are a bit hypocritical if you love the conference tournaments. Miami, who was undefeated, BARELY got in after they lost to Akron in the conference tournament. That situation happens every year in multiple conference and it's sold as "bid stealers", when all it really is...is the best team for 4 months getting screwed by a team that got hot for three games.
I'm one of the hypocrites. I LOVE championship week, but I don't like the 8 team addition. In both situations, teams that don't deserve to get in, get in.
ESPN (link) implies the extra games will most/all be between bubble teams: "The traditional 64-team men's team bracket would still begin Thursday and look much the same. The major difference would be more teams that qualify as traditional at-larges would have to play earlier than the 64-team bracket."
One article on The Athletic (link) shows a table implying it's still split between bubble games and lowest seed games
Another article on The Athletic (link) says it's TBD: "Which teams play in those opening-round games also still needs to be determined, but the current mix of the lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the final at-large selections is the preferred choice of television partners."
Except Akron was the better team all year according to kenpom and the NET. Miami's lack of dominance against terrible teams was exposed in one game in their conference tourney.
In this case the conference tournament "worked", but a tournament is more likely to crown a worse champion than regular season win-loss record would (though with unbalanced schedules, I understand why some don't like that). I'd personally prefer the KenPom champion from each conference, but that's even less likely to happen.
Yet, Miami(OH) beat them straight up, head to head.
They went undefeated in that conference, beat Akron, yet we ignore that and default to KenPom.
When does that stop? It's issues like this that the NCAA can point at as a good reason for expansion. We ignore what happened on the court and who actually won the conference and choose an algorithm to make decisions. Why play the regular season?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Meh.
NCAA tournament size that only impacts the play-in games seems like small problems in comparison to the NBA where half of the teams are actively trying to lose games and the best players try to play in as few games as possible.
NCAA tournament size that only impacts the play-in games seems like small problems in comparison to the NBA where half of the teams are actively trying to lose games and the best players try to play in as few games as possible.
None of us are decision makers, and there's no chance it's going to happen, but it's not controversial to say that KenPom is more predictive of future game results (meaning it's a better representation of team ability) than win/loss record, especially when comparing teams that haven't played the same schedule.
That single head-to-head matchup tells us absolutely nothing since the home team won by 3, or about what home court advantage typically is.
Uhh the CFP only has 12/138 teams (8.7%). They're trying to shift that to 16 (11%) or 24 (17%).
Yea not making any of the like 10 teams who actually have a chance to win the tournament have any tougher of a path is at least an OK result of tournament expansion.
It sucks these games will just be full of sub .500 power conference teams, but mid majors are going to fall further and further behind in CBB due to NIL and lax transfer rules anyway. Definitely ruins some of the allure of filling out brackets for normies (a whole slew of 5 vs. unnamed 12 seed picks is boring), but people will adjust.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
To train the algorithm.
I honestly think this will cost the NCAA money long term. One of the biggest things that cause people to care about the tournament is picking your bracket. It is the biggest reason the NCAA will not consider reseeding the field for the sweet 16 or final 4.
Now to get the 12 over 5 upset you now have to pick the play in game and then the upset. It’s already hard enough to guess the upsets
Now to get the 12 over 5 upset you now have to pick the play in game and then the upset. It’s already hard enough to guess the upsets
- Status