Conference Realignment

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#76      

IlliniSaluki

IL metro east burbs of St. Louis
I was thinking about all this new talk about ACC schools and also the other PAC schools. I know when we hear "soon" or "near future" we as fans start thinking like right now. To the B1G those could mean "in the next 10 years" or so. How long were we at 11 teams before Nebby was added? Quite a while.

I was thinking the B1G could get more teams lined up ready to join but not actually do it until right before the next media rights negotiations. Like how USC & UCLA are going to be whole right away with this new deal when they join. So it may be a long shot but I wouldn't be surprised if right before the next media deal is done we see a "OMG (4 schools names) are joining the B1G???!!" ala USC & UCLA. It's almost the best time for this to happen when the new deal will include the new schools and everyone is made whole in it.

OFC if Notre Dame says "hey daddy B1G? We are ready to join now" you take them right away. lol (which I highly doubt ever happens with an expanded Playoff that will include non SEC/B1G schools).

But yah I doubt it would happen this way again but you never know. *shrug*
 
#77      

CleaverName

Chicago but not there anymore
I can only speculate but I don’t think the “B10 media partners” are required to have the money or interest. Its whether Amazon/Apple has interest for a Friday game, or possibly PST time slot.

Amazon/Apple definitely trying to enter the landscape. It may reach the point that a 5th tier B1G game on Friday is worth more than a PAC or B12 deal given the B1G‘s more national footprint, etc.
So you're saying that we would need to get the interest of a media company to partner with B10 to stream a game for this to work? 🤔
 
#78      
I was thinking about all this new talk about ACC schools and also the other PAC schools. I know when we hear "soon" or "near future" we as fans start thinking like right now. To the B1G those could mean "in the next 10 years" or so. How long were we at 11 teams before Nebby was added? Quite a while.

I was thinking the B1G could get more teams lined up ready to join but not actually do it until right before the next media rights negotiations. Like how USC & UCLA are going to be whole right away with this new deal when they join. So it may be a long shot but I wouldn't be surprised if right before the next media deal is done we see a "OMG (4 schools names) are joining the B1G???!!" ala USC & UCLA. It's almost the best time for this to happen when the new deal will include the new schools and everyone is made whole in it.

OFC if Notre Dame says "hey daddy B1G? We are ready to join now" you take them right away. lol (which I highly doubt ever happens with an expanded Playoff that will include non SEC/B1G schools).

But yah I doubt it would happen this way again but you never know. *shrug*
Every new generation views Notre Dame as less and less special, IMO ... they still are an amazing catch for any conference, but the pizazz will indeed wear off dramatically each year they're effectively locked out of the Playoff due to a weak schedule, and I think they know that. And I think the Big Ten knows it.
 
#79      
Every new generation views Notre Dame as less and less special, IMO ... they still are an amazing catch for any conference, but the pizazz will indeed wear off dramatically each year they're effectively locked out of the Playoff due to a weak schedule, and I think they know that. And I think the Big Ten knows it.
Will that really happen with the playoff expanding to 12?
 
#80      

Shief

Champaign Area
I don't have any hot takes but am curious what the B1G would look like with 24 teams.

I have a setup in mind that would involve raiding/ending the PAC, taking a team from the B12, ND, and someone from the ACC but don't see that happening. Basically, I'm looking at 4 pods of 6 teams - Pacific (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Wash, Stanford, Cal), Plains (Colorado, Kan, Neb, Iowa, Minn, Wisc), Central/Great Lakes (IL, NW, Ind, Pur, ND, Mich St) and Eastern (Mich, OSU, PSU, Rut, Maryland, ACC TBD). I suspect that B1G would be more likely to go after some PAC schools (Wash, Oregon, Stan) but focus more on ones from ACC (ND, Virginia, FSU, Miami, UNC, GT) that are AAU members or could be soon.
 
#81      
So you're saying that we would need to get the interest of a media company to partner with B10 to stream a game for this to work? 🤔
The B10 media partners are FOX, CBS, and NBC. Obviously, adding teams to B1G adds games which those networks have not paid to televise in the next rights deal. My point is we don’t need those companies, the media partners, to be interested in paying for expansion because we know Apple and Amazon are interested. Depending on negotiations with the Big12, and PAC10 one or both of those streamers may be interested in picking up the games added by potential B1G expansion.
 
#82      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
The B10 media partners are FOX, CBS, and NBC. Obviously, adding teams to B1G adds games which those networks have not paid to televise in the next rights deal.
I mean that's kinda true kinda not, right? Washington and Oregon wouldn't only be playing each other. That expands the schedule and mixes in a variety of new games to a pool where our three network partners rights to choose the best ones to broadcast in a given week were very carefully negotiated.

The finalization of the media deal was not the beginning of the conversation on new additions beyond USC and UCLA, it was the end.

Good questions and ideas are being raised in this thread which were asked, studied, prodded, answered, resolved, and put to bed in the summer. It's over until the 2030's.

So what we're left with is this fan desperation for there to be some grander design to it all, which I continue to just not quite understand. ACC/BigXII/Pac10 fans I totally get it, Illinois fans it's just strange to me.
 
#83      
I mean that's kinda true kinda not, right? Washington and Oregon wouldn't only be playing each other. That expands the schedule and mixes in a variety of new games to a pool where our three network partners rights to choose the best ones to broadcast in a given week were very carefully negotiated.

The finalization of the media deal was not the beginning of the conversation on new additions beyond USC and UCLA, it was the end.

Good questions and ideas are being raised in this thread which were asked, studied, prodded, answered, resolved, and put to bed in the summer. It's over until the 2030's.

So what we're left with is this fan desperation for there to be some grander design to it all, which I continue to just not quite understand. ACC/BigXII/Pac10 fans I totally get it, Illinois fans it's just strange to me.
I thought the media deals came with price tags for specific teams. ND would add X in revenue, etc. Is that not the case?
 
#84      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I thought the media deals came with price tags for specific teams. ND would add X in revenue, etc. Is that not the case?
That's been suggested. But that then would be among the existing partners, not an outside streamer.

But that's future-proofing the agreement for unforeseen future circumstances. If that were the better version of the deal, that would be the deal.

The ACC schools can't move, ND won't move, and no one else is wanted by the B1G because they dilute the per-team take. That's all there is to it. It'll all kick off again in 7 or so years.
 
#85      

CleaverName

Chicago but not there anymore
The B10 media partners are FOX, CBS, and NBC. Obviously, adding teams to B1G adds games which those networks have not paid to televise in the next rights deal. My point is we don’t need those companies, the media partners, to be interested in paying for expansion because we know Apple and Amazon are interested. Depending on negotiations with the Big12, and PAC10 one or both of those streamers may be interested in picking up the games added by potential B1G expansion.
I said it tongue in cheek because I felt like it was a distinction without a difference. You need a media partner, either existing or new, for the additions to make financial sense. And without knowing the full terms of the existing media deals we don't know what limitations we have for adding new streaming partners
 
#86      
It isn’t grand design, it’s business. If there are realized profits to be made from a deal it’s very rare for the parties to maintain patience as a matter of convenience, especially when the unrealized gains are at risk of depreciating during the interim.

Regardless of expansion the B1G deal that was just signed expires in 2030, the B1G will be negotiating once again.

If the conference knows now, hypothetically, that they plan to expand again in 2030, and they’re considering OR, WA, CO, Stanford, etc as candidates. The first thing they’ll ask is do those assets project to be more or less valuable in 2030?

I believe the answer to that question is they will be less valuable after 7 years losing an arms race in the PAC10, and more valuable following increased national brand exposure and investment from the B1G.

At that point it becomes a numbers game, and I believe Apple/Amazon are the key. They’re trying to break into the marketplace and are willing to pay a premium to do so. They have quite a few options with really every conference except the SEC. Apple/Amazon made a competitive offer against The Networks and lost the bid.

Amazon/Apple are shopping and they will make a deal with someone. They will not wait it out for 2030.

I don’t have the numbers so I can’t project what will happen, but I think it will come down to whether the PAC/B12 are willing to sell their entire rights package, or their tier 1 and tier 2 games to Apple/Amazon. I can see why they wouldn’t want to do that.

So, I think it will come down to is how a tier 3 B1G12/PAC game compares to a tier 5 (BTN) game in an expanded B1G.
 
#87      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Amazon/Apple are shopping and they will make a deal with someone. They will not wait it out for 2030.
Amazon outbid CBS for the 3rd slot with the B1G and the B1G turned them down. It takes two to tango.

Theoretically either of those streamers could bid insane money to buy up the entire CFP contract, soon to be rebid, and make tons of money for everyone and maintain CFP neutrality in the Fox/ESPN Cold War.

Would the CFP honchos put their golden goose behind a streaming paywall though? I'm not saying they wouldn't, but that's the question to ask.
 
#88      

Serious Late

Peoria via Denver via Ann Arbor via Albuquerque vi
I mean that's kinda true kinda not, right? Washington and Oregon wouldn't only be playing each other. That expands the schedule and mixes in a variety of new games to a pool where our three network partners rights to choose the best ones to broadcast in a given week were very carefully negotiated.

The finalization of the media deal was not the beginning of the conversation on new additions beyond USC and UCLA, it was the end.

Good questions and ideas are being raised in this thread which were asked, studied, prodded, answered, resolved, and put to bed in the summer. It's over until the 2030's.

So what we're left with is this fan desperation for there to be some grander design to it all, which I continue to just not quite understand. ACC/BigXII/Pac10 fans I totally get it, Illinois fans it's just strange to me.
You don't understand? It's not desperation, it is simply fun to speculate what could occur. Today, or 2035, whatever. Guessing at where we might ultimately end up is a big part of the fun for the schools/conferences in the driver's seat.
 
#89      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL

Paywalled, a lot of interesting stuff going on there (including the absolutely bizarre notion that Iowa wanting to protect "rivalries" with Nebraska and Wisconsin is holding things up).

HOWEVER, the big headline, the great news:

"there is some momentum about keeping the status quo for one more season, waiting until USC and UCLA join the league and unveil a new structure rather than enacting three different versions in a three-year span."

ONE MORE YEAR! ONE MORE YEAR!
 
#90      
This reminds me of a Nostradamus prediction.

The academies of the North will be joined by one and then another and yet another from the East. They will be 7 and then 7 again.

For years, numbered 10, the academies of the South and West will admire and covet.

Then two from the West and two from the South will join together with those in the North and East.

Now the eighteen shall rule the lands and none shall challenge them or in any way diminish them and their grandeur.
 
#91      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
This reminds me of a Nostradamus prediction.

The academies of the North will be joined by one and then another and yet another from the East. They will be 7 and then 7 again.

For years, numbered 10, the academies of the South and West will admire and covet.

Then two from the West and two from the South will join together with those in the North and East.

Now the eighteen shall rule the lands and none shall challenge them or in any way diminish them and their grandeur.
what quatrain is that from again ?
 
#92      
Just throwing this out there ... this is my self-centered hope for when USC and UCLA join:

1) They keep the divisions, and a resurgent Illinois program becomes an annual contender for the West.
2) They add USC and UCLA to the West, giving us trips to LA every other year!
3) They ship off Purdue to the East to balance it out:

East
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Michigan State
Rutgers
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana

West
USC
Nebraska
Wisconsin
UCLA
Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern

This is what I predict for the West teams in the near future, and if they came true, I think you would have a top-heavy East vs. a balanced West and ROUGHLY even divisions (with the top of the East still winning the Big Ten Championship more often):

USC and UCLA - Both benefit from joining the Big Ten
Nebraska - Hires a coach that gets them back to a regular top 25 team, though I don't think they'll ever approach the "Blue Blood" status they want
Wisconsin and Illinois - Consistent 7-9 win teams that actually develop a fun rivalry to mirror Bears/Packers over the next decade
Iowa and Minnesota - Good but pushed down toward the bottom of the shuffle
Northwestern - Completely falls off and returns to ALMOST their "Dark Ages" level of play
 
#93      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
They keep the divisions
Not even remotely in consideration, hate to burst your bubble.

If you have access to that article, it is basically decided that they will go divisionless, stick with 9 games for the time being, top two play in the conference title game, and there will be some number of protected annual rivalry games.

The questions at this point are:

1. Does this start next year or 2024?
2. How many protected rivalries per school?
3. Does it have to be the same number of protected rivalries for every school?

What would be best for Illinois would be 2 per school where our two are Northwestern and Purdue. I think it's likelier that they go with 1 per school with Michigan having Michigan State and Minnesota having Iowa as a "bonus" protected rivalry, those being the only two with major histories that wouldn't get #1 billing. (You gotta admire the chutzpah of Iowa trying to lock in three of the non-power schools as protected rivalries. Nice try fellas.)

It is also true that it doesn't have to be an all-or-nothing line between "game is played every year" and "gets tossed into the mix with all the other schools". You could get a bit more cute and creative than that if you wanted to.
 
#94      
Locking the schedule into 4 year blocks where you play 6 teams every other year and 3 teams every year makes the most sense. The problem of course is what those 3 teams look like. 2 locked rivalries + 1 game paired by conference win% over the previous 4 year block makes sense to me. Similar to how first place teams in NFL divisions always play each other the next year.

I think a problem is that with pooling the strongest teams into the Big Ten and SEC you have the dual problem of the low/middle teams don't want their schedules full of the powerhouse teams to tank their season from the start, and the powerhouse teams are so used to having to go undefeated that they don't want too tough a path either. Will the CFP committed pick a 3 loss Texas or Michigan team who has played a really really hard schedule and passes the eye test over a 1 loss PAC12 team with an easier schedule? That unknown may be impacting who wants to play who.
 
#95      
Amazon outbid CBS for the 3rd slot with the B1G and the B1G turned them down. It takes two to tango.

Theoretically either of those streamers could bid insane money to buy up the entire CFP contract, soon to be rebid, and make tons of money for everyone and maintain CFP neutrality in the Fox/ESPN Cold War.

Would the CFP honchos put their golden goose behind a streaming paywall though? I'm not saying they wouldn't, but that's the question to ask.
That’s a good point. Do you know who “owns” the CFP, and who has the power of the pen to sign that deal? Could get interesting.
 
#97      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
Just throwing this out there ... this is my self-centered hope for when USC and UCLA join:

1) They keep the divisions, and a resurgent Illinois program becomes an annual contender for the West.
2) They add USC and UCLA to the West, giving us trips to LA every other year!
3) They ship off Purdue to the East to balance it out:

East
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Michigan State
Rutgers
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana

West
USC
Nebraska
Wisconsin
UCLA
Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern

This is what I predict for the West teams in the near future, and if they came true, I think you would have a top-heavy East vs. a balanced West and ROUGHLY even divisions (with the top of the East still winning the Big Ten Championship more often):

USC and UCLA - Both benefit from joining the Big Ten
Nebraska - Hires a coach that gets them back to a regular top 25 team, though I don't think they'll ever approach the "Blue Blood" status they want
Wisconsin and Illinois - Consistent 7-9 win teams that actually develop a fun rivalry to mirror Bears/Packers over the next decade
Iowa and Minnesota - Good but pushed down toward the bottom of the shuffle
Northwestern - Completely falls off and returns to ALMOST their "Dark Ages" level of play

I still dream about Kathy Ireland.
 
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