Conference Realignment

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#126      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
Washington will be next to the B1G. Not sure Stanford ever makes it. Does anyone in the SF market actually watch college football?

Washington: wanna bet?

just to be clear, I think UW is an excellent school. The problem, and it's a big one, is they're not additive.
 
#128      
Washington will be next to the B1G. Not sure Stanford ever makes it. Does anyone in the SF market actually watch college football?
While I thought adding Washington and Oregon sounded like it would happen (obviously there are major issues with $$ for both of them), I am starting to doubt the B1G goes west, at least not until after the ACC falls apart or the their deal ends in 2036. Reading the tea leaves, i bet we wait for the ACC to open up and focus on UNC, Florida State, maybe Virginia and/or Miami and most importantly, Notre Dame.

I think I read a post that had some 'insider' from Penn State saying the B1G wanted UNC, Virginia, FSU, Clemson and Miami - with Notre Dame as a given. Not sure how (or if) the $$ would even work, but that would get a strong foothold well into SEC territory. The more I hear, it seems the B1G absolutely wants to get into Florida (and the Southeast), since Texas (and Georgia somewhat) is locked down by the SEC (unless A&M gets sick of UT again).
 
#129      
While I thought adding Washington and Oregon sounded like it would happen (obviously there are major issues with $$ for both of them), I am starting to doubt the B1G goes west, at least not until after the ACC falls apart or the their deal ends in 2036.
I think there's a zero percent chance the B1G has the same 16 teams from 2024 through 2035.
 
#132      

TentakilRex

Land O Insects between Quincy-Macomb-Jacksonville
My hot take: Georgia Tech is not a priority target for the B1G, they could be the last team added in a four-eight team expansion.
 
#135      
ACC Attendance

Personally I don’t think anything is happening to the ACC for awhile, the GOR seems like it will make it nearly impossible until the end & I expect the ACC will take a hit over the next decade as they struggle to stay relevant with a large revenue gap.

I think the argument over VA Tech vs. VA & NC State vs UNC is interesting, I would argue the first is the better football school, but the presidents will prefer the latter. Also basketball while it is certainly less important will also favor the latter. But again, if the GOR holds up & I expect it will then we have a decade plus to see where this settles and team values may change.

As a side note, I work with many engineers split roughly evenly between VA Tech & NC State, so my sample isn’t exactly unbiased.
 
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#136      
I think there's a zero percent chance the B1G has the same 16 teams from 2024 through 2035.
Personally I think it is not zero, I wouldn’t put it high, the last couple of years of GOR it might be possible to work something out. If they wanted Oregon, Washington, or someone else from the PAC 12 it could already be done. With GOR, it wouldn’t surprise me if ACC holds out until then 2036. Also we may see the PAC12 & ACC fade over the next decade as they struggle to compete with the revenue gap & don’t look as attractive to theB1G
 
#137      
I did this on August 21, 2021 I think. I think it still holds up nicely almost two years later. Only none AAU schools or Nebraska, Clemson, Virginia Tech, FSU and Notre Dame.

Here is my "dream" scenario:

Have the following schools from the PAC 12:

West Division (all AAU schools):

USC
UCLA
Stanford
California
Oregon
Washington
Utah
Arizona

The Central Division is:

Illinois
Northwestern
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Kansas
Notre Dame

The East Division

Michigan
Michigan St.
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Maryland
Indiana
Purdue
Pittsburgh

Atlantic Division

Duke
North Carolina
Clemson
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
FSU
Rutgers

Have each division winner play a qualifier for a conference playoff.

Play each team in your division and then play the corresponding same place team in the other divisions from the following year. Two non-conference games.

The Great BIG Conference
 
#138      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
I did this on August 21, 2021 I think. I think it still holds up nicely almost two years later. Only none AAU schools or Nebraska, Clemson, Virginia Tech, FSU and Notre Dame.

Here is my "dream" scenario:

Have the following schools from the PAC 12:

West Division (all AAU schools):

USC
UCLA
Stanford
California
Oregon
Washington
Utah
Arizona

The Central Division is:

Illinois
Northwestern
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Kansas
Notre Dame

The East Division

Michigan
Michigan St.
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Maryland
Indiana
Purdue
Pittsburgh

Atlantic Division

Duke
North Carolina
Clemson
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
FSU
Rutgers

Have each division winner play a qualifier for a conference playoff.

Play each team in your division and then play the corresponding same place team in the other divisions from the following year. Two non-conference games.

The Great BIG Conference

most of those schools are dilutive. If the powers-that-be are telling the truth, no chance
 
#139      
most of those schools are dilutive. If the powers-that-be are telling the truth, no chance
Basically I did this when Texas and Oklahoma announced for the SEC and it was my attempt to box the SEC in.

I understand the Big 10 would never do this but we did add UCLA, USC (with lots of those Pac 12 schools being talked about) and then the rumors of the ACC and of course Notre Dame, so there could be anywhere from 4-8 of those schools listed added in the next couple of years. It was just my "forward thinking." Haha
 
#141      

mhuml32

Cincinnati, OH
It would be hilariously ironic if our conference got so big to the point where it was effectively like an NFC or National League, and the old Big Ten became a division, allowing us to just mostly play the old teams after all of this is done. :ROFLMAO:

This is exactly where we have been heading. The wheels were set in motion back in 1984: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_v._Board_of_Regents_of_the_University_of_Oklahoma

TLDR; NCAA lost control of television rights, which then went to the conferences. This chugged along for a while until television contracts became so lucrative that conferences were actively filling the vacuum created by SCOTUS (and NCAA foolishness).


We've seen the NCAA growing increasingly powerless since this decision. Soon, conferences will take the next step and effectively become a governing body for a large swath of teams. Today it looks like we will have a showdown between the Big Ten and SEC. Whether they can negotiate between each other in the long-term to govern together is an unknown.
 
#142      
This is exactly where we have been heading. The wheels were set in motion back in 1984: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_v._Board_of_Regents_of_the_University_of_Oklahoma

TLDR; NCAA lost control of television rights, which then went to the conferences. This chugged along for a while until television contracts became so lucrative that conferences were actively filling the vacuum created by SCOTUS (and NCAA foolishness).


We've seen the NCAA growing increasingly powerless since this decision. Soon, conferences will take the next step and effectively become a governing body for a large swath of teams. Today it looks like we will have a showdown between the Big Ten and SEC. Whether they can negotiate between each other in the long-term to govern together is an unknown.
I'd be interested to hear from older fans if these two conferences were likely "finalists" in such a realignment or if this only became clear later. 2001 basketball was really the first season I even vaguely remember of NCAA sports and by the time I was old enough to really start getting into it passionately (circa 2005, conveniently enough!!), I feel that there was already a sense that the Big Ten was the "richest league" with the biggest fan bases. I cannot remember what I thought about the SEC other than they were really good at football.

However, if you had asked me "back in the day," I suspect I would have perceived the Pac Ten as kind of uniquely secure given their TV markets, good academics (at the top anyway), pretty storied sports programs (again, at the top anyway!) and - perhaps most importantly - perceived geographic isolation from the other major conferences in such a way that might cause them all to rely on each other and stick together. And yet here we are!!

P.S. This just reminds me of how important it is to have Illinoisans with ZERO connection to U of I grow up Illini fans. Schools like Oregon State/Washington State in the Pac-12, NC State/Wake Forest in the ACC and Kansas State/Iowa State in the Big XII are pretty unanimously screwed if/when their conference falls apart because their fan bases are mostly restricted to people with direct connections to the schools. In other words, unless you grew up within 50 miles of Ames or you are an alumni of Iowa State, you probably grew up a Hawkeyes fan. Same for Oregon State vs. Oregon, Washington State vs. Washington, NC State vs. UNC, etc. Illinois is lucky first and foremost that we are ALREADY in the Big Ten, but we are also lucky that there are tons of people in Downstate and a decent number in Chicagoland who either didn't go to college or went to a small school without football who defer to the Illini as the state's team. We have a long way to go to inch closer to the instate loyalty of, say, Ohio or Pennsylvania (we will never replicate the dynamics in Iowa, Nebraska or even Wisconsin for obvious reasons, but that is fine!), but we are extremely fortunate to be a state flagship in a big state with a massive alumni base in the current environment, JMHO.
 
#143      
I think people over value the barrier that the ACC grant of rights is. It is a barrier, certainly, but I don’t think it’s an impenetrable one.

Every season that the top flight ACC football schools don’t make Big 10/SEC money is money lost to them. Every season, the cost to get out of the grant of rights goes down one season’s worth. Eventually, the money will work out that it’s worth paying the cost to move on.

And when that first ACC school goes, it’s over. It’ll collapse like a deck of cards. I don’t know if it’ll be 2 years, 5 years or 10 years, but I don’t think there’s any way the ACC survives intact to the end of the grant of rights deal.
 
#144      
I think people over value the barrier that the ACC grant of rights is. It is a barrier, certainly, but I don’t think it’s an impenetrable one.

Every season that the top flight ACC football schools don’t make Big 10/SEC money is money lost to them. Every season, the cost to get out of the grant of rights goes down one season’s worth. Eventually, the money will work out that it’s worth paying the cost to move on.

And when that first ACC school goes, it’s over. It’ll collapse like a deck of cards. I don’t know if it’ll be 2 years, 5 years or 10 years, but I don’t think there’s any way the ACC survives intact to the end of the grant of rights deal.
My 2 cents, this is sort of a digital problem, if they can find a way to beat the GOR in court then ACC falls apart, if they can't it is pretty impenetrable. As you get closer to the 2036 end sure maybe someone will jump the gun to make sure they grab a seat at the B1G or SEC, but unless they beat the GOR the value of any ACC member becomes zero outside of the conference. No conference is going to take even UNC, or pick any ACC school for 10+ years with zero TV dollars behind them and be willing to share any revenue with them. The ACC school would be then giving up there $30+ million ACC conference payout for every year left on the GOR. This is about money & the ACC teams add zero TV value as long as GOR stands. On top of that I think the conference has sold those rights to ESPN, who will fight very hard to keep them at what now is a very attractive term for ESPN, no reason for ESPN to want to move teams to SEC when they would need to pay the schools twice as much. A different scenario with B1G where ESPN is shut out, but they already passed on paying that much in new contract & they have the ACC at favorable terms already.

For ND, they kept football rights, but have a long term contract with NBC & some agreement with ACC that if they join a conference in football it will be ACC, different legal battle there.
 
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#145      
Imagine
Step 1: the Supreme court invalidates grants in rights and schools can join any conference.
Step 2: Power schools Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia Clemson UND consider forming super conference like Premier league

What conferences would we end up with. The B10, Pac12, B12, SEC, ACC pre-football money made a lot of sense. Geographic proximity, Large state schools, long time rivalries.

If TV rights were school by school instead of by conference maybe we could go back to old conference structure. Just decouple the football TV money.
 
#146      
Imagine
Step 1: the Supreme court invalidates grants in rights and schools can join any conference.
Step 2: Power schools Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia Clemson UND consider forming super conference like Premier league

What conferences would we end up with. The B10, Pac12, B12, SEC, ACC pre-football money made a lot of sense. Geographic proximity, Large state schools, long time rivalries.

If TV rights were school by school instead of by conference maybe we could go back to old conference structure. Just decouple the football TV money.
So then with the new 12 team playoff, we would get 6 conference champions and 6 teams at large..5 of which maybe the “power school conference non-champions?”
 
#147      

Joel Goodson

respect my decision™
Imagine
Step 1: the Supreme court invalidates grants in rights and schools can join any conference.
Step 2: Power schools Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia Clemson UND consider forming super conference like Premier league

What conferences would we end up with. The B10, Pac12, B12, SEC, ACC pre-football money made a lot of sense. Geographic proximity, Large state schools, long time rivalries.

If TV rights were school by school instead of by conference maybe we could go back to old conference structure. Just decouple the football TV money.

why on earth would any court invalidate GoR?
 
#148      

Mr. Tibbs

southeast DuPage
#1 - there is nothing the Supreme Court can do about two parties entering into a valid legal contract

#2 - 8 or 10 or 12 or 14 or 16 or 18 ( the number never stops ) schools that are really good in football today are going to risk being in the bottom half of some fantasy football league and screw over all other sports

this scenario wont happen ever, because as we were taught, there is no honor among thieves. Some of the haves today will be havenots tomorrow,
The havenots will then be kicked out of the club, and have nothing to show for it
 
#149      
Imagine
Step 1: the Supreme court invalidates grants in rights and schools can join any conference.
Step 2: Power schools Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia Clemson UND consider forming super conference like Premier league

What conferences would we end up with. The B10, Pac12, B12, SEC, ACC pre-football money made a lot of sense. Geographic proximity, Large state schools, long time rivalries.

If TV rights were school by school instead of by conference maybe we could go back to old conference structure. Just decouple the football TV money.
1) agree with Joel & Tibbs...don't see this getting to the supreme court. Also GOR is mostly an ACC thing, I don't think anything is binding the SEC or B1G teams today; but no one in either conference sees a need to move. Not really sure the ACC really moves the needle that much, ND has worked really hard to stay independent, outside of Clemson not sure anyone else is a super team; Miami and FSU have had spurts where they were, but if you are building a super conference Florida trumps both for support and so both are left out. UNC and VA can probably find a home in the B1G, maybe FSU or Miami as well. But this just is a continued expansion that both the B1G & SEC chosoe.

2) For the most part the super conference already exists, it's call the SEC. yes maybe they would throw out a few if they could, but at the end of the day you need someone you can beat & I don't see OSU/Michigan looking to jump to the SEC. I'm not sure the SEC will even want Clemson or FSU because they already have a significant presence in South Carolina & Florida
 
#150      
I think there's a zero percent chance the B1G has the same 16 teams from 2024 through 2035.
I'd be interested to hear from older fans if these two conferences were likely "finalists" in such a realignment or if this only became clear later. 2001 basketball was really the first season I even vaguely remember of NCAA sports and by the time I was old enough to really start getting into it passionately (circa 2005, conveniently enough!!), I feel that there was already a sense that the Big Ten was the "richest league" with the biggest fan bases. I cannot remember what I thought about the SEC other than they were really good at football.

However, if you had asked me "back in the day," I suspect I would have perceived the Pac Ten as kind of uniquely secure given their TV markets, good academics (at the top anyway), pretty storied sports programs (again, at the top anyway!) and - perhaps most importantly - perceived geographic isolation from the other major conferences in such a way that might cause them all to rely on each other and stick together. And yet here we are!!

P.S. This just reminds me of how important it is to have Illinoisans with ZERO connection to U of I grow up Illini fans. Schools like Oregon State/Washington State in the Pac-12, NC State/Wake Forest in the ACC and Kansas State/Iowa State in the Big XII are pretty unanimously screwed if/when their conference falls apart because their fan bases are mostly restricted to people with direct connections to the schools. In other words, unless you grew up within 50 miles of Ames or you are an alumni of Iowa State, you probably grew up a Hawkeyes fan. Same for Oregon State vs. Oregon, Washington State vs. Washington, NC State vs. UNC, etc. Illinois is lucky first and foremost that we are ALREADY in the Big Ten, but we are also lucky that there are tons of people in Downstate and a decent number in Chicagoland who either didn't go to college or went to a small school without football who defer to the Illini as the state's team. We have a long way to go to inch closer to the instate loyalty of, say, Ohio or Pennsylvania (we will never replicate the dynamics in Iowa, Nebraska or even Wisconsin for obvious reasons, but that is fine!), but we are extremely fortunate to be a state flagship in a big state with a massive alumni base in the current environment, JMHO.
This is all the more reason for every fan of Illinois—particularly alumni—to raise the profile of the teams with decals or license plate framed, and/or affinity license plates.

And why it’s important that the football field and basketball court have the state outline: when those show up on a TV sports report, it’s a subtle message of our state, our team. No other school (particularly Northwestern) can make that claim. Well, perhaps Illinois State, but that would be presumptuous to the extreme.
 
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