Conference Realignment

Status
Not open for further replies.
#151      

Shief

Shief
Champaign Area
Shief
Bear with me, I am going to put my 'let's expand the B1G to X teams' hat on and work out some scenarios. I've seen articles and videos from various people about potential target teams, schedules, etc. and here are my thoughts.

High level, B1G should probably give USC and UCLA some western teams to play on a regular basis. However, I've been led to believe that 80% of the college sports viewership is in the Eastern half of the US. So, how do we balance these two situations?

20 Teams
B1G cares about both athletic history and academic prowess. In the west, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona would be options due to their AAU status and histories. In the east, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech are AAU and have good histories but Notre Dame is Notre Dame and Florida State and Miami are working to improve their academics, supposedly.

I would look to add Oregon and Washington in the west and 2x in the east between ND, UNC, and UVA to get to 20 teams.

Football would have 10 conference games and there are no divisions. The 2 nonconference games can be against anyone but it is encouraged that one game be against an SEC or B12 team, IL can play Mizzou annually as an out of conference rival. A team will have a fixed rival that they will play annually, likely on Thanksgiving weekend, and the other 9 games will rotate so that you'll play every other team at home and away in a 4 year period. The top 2 overall will then play for the conference title.

24 Teams
We will consider the same teams above as potential targets.

In the west, I would go with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and either Cal or Colorado. In the east, Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, and FSU or Miami.

Similar to above, there will be no divisions, only protect rivals and rotating games. Each team would play 9 conference games with 2 being annual rivals, one game on Thanksgiving weekend, and 7 rotating games. In a 6 year period, a team would play the rotating teams twice, once at home and once away. The 3 nonconference games would include an SEC or B12 team and 2 games against whomever. Top 2 or 4 teams overall have a mini playoff for the conference title. Illinois could play against Mizzou annually as a nonconference rival and see what makes sense for the other 2 games (preferably one is against a B12 team annually like Cincinnati, Kansas, or a Texas school).

Another option, 12 conference games and no nonconference games. A team would play a protected rival each year and rotate the other 11 games to play all other teams home and away in a 4 year cycle. The top 2 or 4 teams overall meet in a mini playoff to find conference champ.

Enough of my ramblings, what do you all think?
 
Last edited:
#152      

ptgrd23

ptgrd23
ptgrd23
Logical expansion if no ACC grant of rights limit

but if goal is no dilution of per school payout only schools would move the needle

UND (national)
Florida State (FL market)
maybe North Carolina

Currently all the others including WA and Oregon would lower per school payout. Otherwise WA and Oregon would have already happened.

Now if B10 had an offer from network for doubling the payout if they added certain schools that would change the math by removing the dilution problem. Can't see that happening unless new player like Amazon or Apple+ makes the push. Last couple bumps were from FOX and ESPN needing content.
 
#153      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
Shief said:
Bear with me, I am going to put my 'let's expand the B1G to X teams' hat on and work out some scenarios. I've seen articles and videos from various people about potential target teams, schedules, etc. and here are my thoughts.

High level, B1G should probably give USC and UCLA some western teams to play on a regular basis. However, I've been led to believe that 80% of the college sports viewership is in the Eastern half of the US. So, how do we balance these two situations?

20 Teams
B1G cares about both athletic history and academic prowess. In the west, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona would be options due to their AAU status and histories. In the east, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, and Georgia Tech are AAU and have good histories but Notre Dame is Notre Dame and Florida State and Miami are working to improve their academics, supposedly.

I would look to add Oregon and Washington in the west and 2x in the east between ND, UNC, and UVA to get to 20 teams.

Football would have 10 conference games and there are no divisions. The 2 nonconference games can be against anyone but it is encouraged that one game be against an SEC or B12 team, IL can play Mizzou annually as an out of conference rival. A team will have a fixed rival that they will play annually, likely on Thanksgiving weekend, and the other 9 games will rotate so that you'll play every other team at home and away in a 4 year period. The top 2 overall will then play for the conference title.

24 Teams
We will consider the same teams above as potential targets.

In the west, I would go with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and either Cal or Colorado. In the east, Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, and FSU or Miami.

Similar to above, there will be no divisions, only protect rivals and rotating games. Each team would play 9 conference games with 2 being annual rivals, one game on Thanksgiving weekend, and 7 rotating games. In a 6 year period, a team would play the rotating teams twice, once at home and once away. The 3 nonconference games would include an SEC or B12 team and 2 games against whomever. Top 2 or 4 teams overall have a mini playoff for the conference title. Illinois could play against Mizzou annually as a nonconference rival and see what makes sense for the other 2 games (preferably one is against a B12 team annually like Cincinnati, Kansas, or a Texas school).

Another option, 12 conference games and no nonconference games. A team would play a protected rival each year and rotate the other 11 games to play all other teams home and away in a 4 year cycle. The top 2 or 4 teams overall meet in a mini playoff to find conference champ.

Enough of my ramblings, what do you all think?
Click to expand...

The new kids on the block don't want Oregon and Washington. WRT the 14, the word is no dilution. Oregon and Washington are dilutive, by a good margin. Unless something radical changes, no way.

As for the ACC, that's gonna take awhile (GoR is probly ironclad, regardless of intense braying and squirming).

As to non-conference games, close to 0% chance of BIG v SEC tilts (conference schedule will be a gauntlet). Teams/coaches will seek out less challenging games.
 
#154      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I'd be interested to hear from older fans if these two conferences were likely "finalists" in such a realignment or if this only became clear later.

P.S. This just reminds me of how important it is to have Illinoisans with ZERO connection to U of I grow up Illini fans. Schools like Oregon State/Washington State in the Pac-12, NC State/Wake Forest in the ACC and Kansas State/Iowa State in the Big XII are pretty unanimously screwed if/when their conference falls apart because their fan bases are mostly restricted to people with direct connections to the schools. In other words, unless you grew up within 50 miles of Ames or you are an alumni of Iowa State, you probably grew up a Hawkeyes fan. Same for Oregon State vs. Oregon, Washington State vs. Washington, NC State vs. UNC, etc. Illinois is lucky first and foremost that we are ALREADY in the Big Ten, but we are also lucky that there are tons of people in Downstate and a decent number in Chicagoland who either didn't go to college or went to a small school without football who defer to the Illini as the state's team. We have a long way to go to inch closer to the instate loyalty of, say, Ohio or Pennsylvania (we will never replicate the dynamics in Iowa, Nebraska or even Wisconsin for obvious reasons, but that is fine!), but we are extremely fortunate to be a state flagship in a big state with a massive alumni base in the current environment, JMHO.
Click to expand...
Not the oldest on here, but graduated in 1984 so getting there. My experience is that conference alignment wasn't on my radar until really recent changes around when the B1G added Nebraska. I think with the growth of cable, ESPN, Fox sports, and more recently streaming has added the opportunity to follow teams outside of your area has blown up, probably making everyone more aware of other conferences. I lived in Decatur for 5 years after graduating and had season tickets for those 5 years + last 3 of school and don't recall being able to watch all that many Illinois games on TV at that time. Then I moved to Florida and games getting televised there were few and far between as it was more national coverage with local overrides once in awhile. I think the expansion of TV coverage also raised the TV revenue and added to the have/have nots that are driving conference realignment. So honestly, I didn't give it any thought or have an opinion predating the Nebraska round of shake ups & at that time is was becoming apparent that SEC/B1G were going to rule this game, but expected the PAC 12 + some combination of ACC/B1G12 to survive as disadvantaged power conferences. With ND & Texas as wildcards that could level the playing field or cause chaos.

What's changed to me is that the B1G/SEC have continued to grow revenue at rates, when some thought the bubble would burst and revenue might even shrink. The ACC seems to have counted on this by doubling down on a longer term contract & GOR that puts them at a serious deficit until potentially 2036. In the meantime the 2 most valuable properties in both the PAC12 & BIG 12 have jumped to the B1G & SEC, so all 3 of the second tier power 5 conferences positions have seriously weakened.

As far as your second note, a side point, living in Carolina now & don't see NC State as such a clear underdog to NC in terms of state fan support & yes I hang out with engineers & more NC State grads...but NC State sold more football tickets than NC (57k to 49k - ACC attend. over last 5 yr )and seems to be the favorite among the non-college working class, alot of people here hate UNC more than we do
 
Last edited:
#155      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Greensboro said:
Not the oldest on here, but graduated in 1984 so getting there. My experience is that conference alignment wasn't on my radar until really recent changes around when the B1G added Nebraska. I think with the growth of cable, ESPN, Fox sports, and more recently streaming has added the opportunity to follow teams outside of your area has blown up, probably making everyone more aware of other conferences. I lived in Decatur for 5 years after graduating and had season tickets for those 5 years + last 3 of school and don't recall being able to watch all that many Illinois games on TV at that time. Then I moved to Florida and games getting televised there were few and far between as it was more national coverage with local overrides once in awhile. I think the expansion of TV coverage also raised the TV revenue and added to the have/have nots that are driving conference realignment. So honestly, I didn't give it any thought or have an opinion predating the Nebraska round of shake ups & at that time is was becoming apparent that SEC/B1G were going to rule this game, but expected the PAC 12 + some combination of ACC/B1G12 to survive as disadvantaged power conferences. With ND & Texas as wildcards that could level the playing field or cause chaos.

What's changed to me is that the B1G/SEC have continued to grow revenue at rates, when some thought the bubble would burst and revenue might even shrink. The ACC seems to have counted on this by doubling down on a longer term contract & GOR that puts them at a serious deficit until potentially 2036. In the meantime the 2 most valuable properties in both the PAC12 & BIG 12 have jumped to the B1G & SEC, so all 3 of the second tier power 5 conferences positions have seriously weakened.

As far as your second note, a side point, living in Carolina now & don't see NC State as such a clear underdog to NC in terms of state fan support & yes I hang out with engineers & more NC State grads...but NC State sold more football tickets than NC (57k to 49k - ACC attend. over last 5 yr )and seems to be the favorite among the non-college working class, alot of people here hate UNC more than we do
Click to expand...
Interesting - thank you for sharing that anecdote about North Carolina! My uncle is an NC State grad, and I guess I always just got the impression from him that it was a bit more of a "grads only" fandom ... not that he's ever said that, just judging from comments made here and there. I guess I also should have considered that Raleigh is a very populous area, and non-grads there would obviously lean toward NC State.

While I was born in Peoria (hence the Illini fandom despite not going to U of I), I lived in Iowa City for most of my life before moving to Chicago a few years ago. There was a very clear dynamic in Iowa where if you/your parents did not go to Iowa State or you weren't from a town in Ames' "direct orbit," chances are very high you were an Iowa fan. Iowa fans used that to brag about it being a "Hawkeye State," and Iowa State fans used it to brag about how ISU fans were on average more refined/usually college grads and Iowa had a "Wal-Mart Wolverine" component to their fandom. I always laughed at that criticism, because literally ALL of the best athletic programs with almost zero exception have a TON of non-alumni fans. You need them, and you want them!
 
#157      

Gunner23

G
Panama City, Florida
Gunner23
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Interesting - thank you for sharing that anecdote about North Carolina! My uncle is an NC State grad, and I guess I always just got the impression from him that it was a bit more of a "grads only" fandom ... not that he's ever said that, just judging from comments made here and there. I guess I also should have considered that Raleigh is a very populous area, and non-grads there would obviously lean toward NC State.

While I was born in Peoria (hence the Illini fandom despite not going to U of I), I lived in Iowa City for most of my life before moving to Chicago a few years ago. There was a very clear dynamic in Iowa where if you/your parents did not go to Iowa State or you weren't from a town in Ames' "direct orbit," chances are very high you were an Iowa fan. Iowa fans used that to brag about it being a "Hawkeye State," and Iowa State fans used it to brag about how ISU fans were on average more refined/usually college grads and Iowa had a "Wal-Mart Wolverine" component to their fandom. I always laughed at that criticism, because literally ALL of the best athletic programs with almost zero exception have a TON of non-alumni fans. You need them, and you want them!
Click to expand...
Agreed. No matter how you get your fans, you want as many as possible. Not just locally, but all around the country. Around here (Florida Panhandle), we have the Iowa/Iowa State dynamic in full force with Auburn and Alabama. Over the years treating patients in this area, most of the Auburn fans went to AU or had family members who went to AU. Many of the Alabama fans didn't even go to college. Even the Alabama fans that are alumni of Alabama talk down to/about other Alabama fans who didn't graduate from there. They always point out in conversation with other Bama fans that they graduated from Alabama, in order to make sure that everyone knows that their opinion carries more weight. Alabama fans (and a lot of Georgia fans) don't even realize that their school has sports other than football. A majority of Auburn fans can talk about multiple sports at Auburn. As for the Gators and FSU, it seems to be an even mix of alumni and non-alumni fans, Most UF and FSU fans keep track of multiple sports as well.
 
#158      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Gunner23 said:
Agreed. No matter how you get your fans, you want as many as possible. Not just locally, but all around the country. Around here (Florida Panhandle), we have the Iowa/Iowa State dynamic in full force with Auburn and Alabama. Over the years treating patients in this area, most of the Auburn fans went to AU or had family members who went to AU. Many of the Alabama fans didn't even go to college. Even the Alabama fans that are alumni of Alabama talk down to/about other Alabama fans who didn't graduate from there. They always point out in conversation with other Bama fans that they graduated from Alabama, in order to make sure that everyone knows that their opinion carries more weight. Alabama fans (and a lot of Georgia fans) don't even realize that their school has sports other than football. A majority of Auburn fans can talk about multiple sports at Auburn. As for the Gators and FSU, it seems to be an even mix of alumni and non-alumni fans, Most UF and FSU fans keep track of multiple sports as well.
Click to expand...
Not to get us too off-topic here, but I find the bolded fascinating (even if I have long been aware of it). Perhaps Illini fans are uniquely "two-sport fans" (I don't think I have ever met an Illini hoops fan that has a different college football team, lol...), but this would be SO frickin' weird to me. How could you cheer your heart out for Illinois in basketball and see the same orange and blue trot out for football and you just have a different team?!

Considering the absolutely massive fan bases Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, etc. have for football and the comparative lack of a following their basketball teams have, the number of those fans who completely ditch their basketball teams is truly astounding! I'm sure it goes the same in the opposite direction for Duke basketball fans. Just bizarre ... cannot respect those people, lol.
 
#159      

Shief

Shief
Champaign Area
Shief
I
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Not to get us too off-topic here, but I find the bolded fascinating (even if I have long been aware of it). Perhaps Illini fans are uniquely "two-sport fans" (I don't think I have ever met an Illini hoops fan that has a different college football team, lol...), but this would be SO frickin' weird to me. How could you cheer your heart out for Illinois in basketball and see the same orange and blue trot out for football and you just have a different team?!

Considering the absolutely massive fan bases Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, etc. have for football and the comparative lack of a following their basketball teams have, the number of those fans who completely ditch their basketball teams is truly astounding! I'm sure it goes the same in the opposite direction for Duke basketball fans. Just bizarre ... cannot respect those people, lol.
Click to expand...
I grew up near Bloomington-Normal and Peoria, there were a few ND football but Illinois basketball fans. When I'd ask why they couldn't settle on a single school, they really didn't have a reason.
 
#160      

redwingillini11

redwingillini11
White and Sixth
North Aurora
redwingillini11
Everyone's favorite anonymous source on the subject just dropped this potential bomb:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661121033602998275

I'd be kind of excited to see Colorado return to the Big 12, though I'd like it even better if they joined the Big Ten, but that probably isn't going to happen.

If this were to happen, you'd have to think the Pac 12 would have to start getting desperate and adding Mountain West teams to keep the conference a live for another day. But if Colorado is leaving then the Arizona schools and maybe Utah might not be far behind.
 
#161      

fuddrules

F
fuddrules
redwingillini11 said:
Everyone's favorite anonymous source on the subject just dropped this potential bomb:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661121033602998275

I'd be kind of excited to see Colorado return to the Big 12, though I'd like it even better if they joined the Big Ten, but that probably isn't going to happen.

If this were to happen, you'd have to think the Pac 12 would have to start getting desperate and adding Mountain West teams to keep the conference a live for another day. But if Colorado is leaving then the Arizona schools and maybe Utah might not be far behind.
Click to expand...

I think this tweeter just throws darts but because It's not a matter of if, but when, the Pac folds, it makes some sense. Colorado is not going to the Big or SEC.

There's very little holding the Pac together and it won't take much for it to crumble. The last thing the ACC needs is more 2nd rate "financial" pieces. The Big 12 willingly accepts being the #3 football conference but will challenge for #1 in basketball. That creates stability which will be attractive to quite a few Universities w/o other options.
 
#163      

spotter

S
spotter
Lack of a PAC-12 media deal and previous conference mismanagement forces Washington State to cut back.

 
#165      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
fuddrules said:
I think this tweeter just throws darts but because It's not a matter of if, but when, the Pac folds, it makes some sense. Colorado is not going to the Big or SEC.

There's very little holding the Pac together and it won't take much for it to crumble. The last thing the ACC needs is more 2nd rate "financial" pieces. The Big 12 willingly accepts being the #3 football conference but will challenge for #1 in basketball. That creates stability which will be attractive to quite a few Universities w/o other options.
Click to expand...
Yeah, think he is throwing darts. Not sure why a PAC 12 team would go to ACC to trade a bad short term deal for a bad long term deal & don’t see ACC schools getting out of GOR to move. Maybe best of Big 12 & PAC 12 could join up to form a new conference, but would think Big 12 deal might be looking to good to leave right now with struggles PAC 12 is having getting a new contract.
 
#167      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
spotter said:
Lack of a PAC-12 media deal and previous conference mismanagement forces Washington State to cut back.

Click to expand...
May be a sign of things to come for some schools, haven’t given this path much thought, but maybe the path to cover a 30 million or so deficit is to cut men’s sports down to football & basketball & match women’s scholarships to whatever has the best revenues (least losses).
 
#169      

illiniguy

illiniguy
illiniguy
Pork Day would be a thing again!

Happy Fun GIF
 
Last edited:
#170      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663531612057870336


The impact of an ever-growing conference influence. This would be a stark change to not only college athletics, but university function. Doing it as a conference mitigates costs and negative PR (related to T9), also likely improves your chances of litigation success.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.