Cubs 2023 Season

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
IanKEvans2 said:
What about this Mervis kid that kind of came out of nowhere (to me at least who's been less aware of the farm system in recent years)?
Click to expand...
He was an undrafted free agent out of Duke in 2020. The people who make a point of him being a UFA are a little disingenuous because of the weird shortened 5-round draft in 2020. He would have been a 6-8th round pick in a normal year.

He was a pitcher who didn’t start concentrating on hitting until his senior year, which was of course shortened. Big, 6’4”, 225, left handed hitter.

Didn’t do much in 2021 and then blew through three levels of the minors this year slashing a combined .309/.378/.606 with 36 HR, 119 RBI in 137 game and then OPSed .914 with 6 HRs in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League.

He’s so off the radar that he’s not on any of the prospect lists despite his performance this year. I think the consensus is massive power, but maybe holes in his swing. The Cubs are really excited about him, but there’s so little track record here. Besides, the Cubs need both a 1B and a DH. He’s almost guaranteed to start the season on the MLB roster.

ETA - Fangraphs projects a .798 OPS and 20 HRs, which isn’t an all star, but is ffffaaaaaarrrrr better than anything the Cubs had at 1B last year.
 
Last edited:
#27      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
Emerson Bigguns said:
1 year 17.5. Obviously has to get healthy. He's played at his basement floor the last two seasons, but man... his ceiling is as good as it gets...
Click to expand...
Too much for a guy who hasn’t had a good season in 3 years.
 
#28      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
Emerson Bigguns said:
If you believe hot stove rumors, the Cubs' plan A is to get both Bogaerts and Swanson.... moving Xander to 3rd. Obviously, a fever dream, but so was 2016...

Regardless, I'm of the opinion that playing Wisdom anywhere creates a hole wherever he is. He hit .207 last year and graded out as a below average 3rd baseman. The next good Cubs team probably won't have him in the lineup regularly.
Click to expand...
I read that Bogaerts isn’t moving off of SS.
 
#29      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
bdutts said:
Too much for a guy who hasn’t had a good season in 3 years.
Click to expand...
(I’m nervously posting about baseball to distract me from the basketball game.)

The Cubs are still about $110 million under the luxury threshold and have $70 million coming off the books next year before adding Bellinger’s 1-year contract.

There’s absolutely no reason at all for this team not to spend like a drunken sailor so long as it doesn’t affect their long term payroll.

There’s a very good chance Bellinger is going to suck at the plate, but his contract isn’t going to affect their spending this year or in the future.
 
#32      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
champaignchris said:
(I’m nervously posting about baseball to distract me from the basketball game.)

The Cubs are still about $110 million under the luxury threshold and have $70 million coming off the books next year before adding Bellinger’s 1-year contract.

There’s absolutely no reason at all for this team not to spend like a drunken sailor so long as it doesn’t affect their long term payroll.

There’s a very good chance Bellinger is going to suck at the plate, but his contract isn’t going to affect their spending this year or in the future.
Click to expand...
I'm all for spending money but spending money for the sake of spending it is foolish. It has to be spent wisely and IMO, 17.5M for Bellinger isn't wise. I'm all for taking a flyer on him but not at 17.5M. I'd do 10M max and if he didn't want it, he can take his Heyward-like offensive skills somewhere else. You can probably find someone who's on par with his defensive skills for much cheaper than 17.5M.

I hope he proves me wrong, but history is not on his side.
 
#33      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
bdutts said:
I'm all for spending money but spending money for the sake of spending it is foolish. It has to be spent wisely and IMO, 17.5M for Bellinger isn't wise. I'm all for taking a flyer on him but not at 17.5M. I'd do 10M max and if he didn't want it, he can take his Heyward-like offensive skills somewhere else. You can probably find someone who's on par with his defensive skills for much cheaper than 17.5M.

I hope he proves me wrong, but history is not on his side.
Click to expand...
Cody is a really good CF. There aren't many guys out there who can go get em like he can. If he gets his shoulder straightened out, watch out.

The deal is 12.5 for 2023 and a 5-million-dollar buyout on a mutual option for 24'. Fills a need defensively.

Even if he gets somewhat back to himself offensively, say .250 BA and 25 HR's, it's a huge bargain with the defense he provides.
 
#35      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
bdutts said:
I'm all for spending money but spending money for the sake of spending it is foolish. It has to be spent wisely and IMO, 17.5M for Bellinger isn't wise. I'm all for taking a flyer on him but not at 17.5M. I'd do 10M max and if he didn't want it, he can take his Heyward-like offensive skills somewhere else. You can probably find someone who's on par with his defensive skills for much cheaper than 17.5M.

I hope he proves me wrong, but history is not on his side.
Click to expand...
I get the logic of this, but the upside his offense somewhat returns and they can either 1) extend him, or 2) trade him to a contender for longer-term pieces. $17.5 million is a haul for a 1-year deal, but I'm glad it seems Ricketts is finally shaking out his pockets.
 
#37      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
Emerson Bigguns said:
Cody is a really good CF. There aren't many guys out there who can go get em like he can. If he gets his shoulder straightened out, watch out.

The deal is 12.5 for 2023 and a 5-million-dollar buyout on a mutual option for 24'. Fills a need defensively.

Even if he gets somewhat back to himself offensively, say .250 BA and 25 HR's, it's a huge bargain with the defense he provides.
Click to expand...
ok, that's a better deal than I thought. I didn't see it reported that way, only the 17.5M,
 
#41      

davenportblue

D
davenportblue
I just checked with one of my Cardinal fan friends (yes I have a few), and told them he will love Contreras (when he's not on the DL for hamstring issues). But I also warned him that he will absolutely HATE his baserunning.....even included the definition of "TOOTBLAN" for him
 
#42      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
I thought Contreras was going to get something pretty similar to the contract Grandal got with the Sox. He ended up making a little less per year ($750k), but got an extra guaranteed year. So, good for Willson. Sad it will be with the Cards those first few years, but I probably won't be sad when it's not the Cubs paying him more than $17MM a year at ages 34 and 35.
 
#44      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
Looks like Bogaerts to the Padres...
 
#45      

Warren Carter Fanclub

Warren Carter Fanclub
Warren Carter Fanclub
I know things change but right now, as we speak, the Cubs are a lot further away from the Cardinals than they were on the last day of the season.
Rumors in December won't win any games in April. Do your job Jed.
 
Last edited:
#46      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Warren Carter Fanclub said:
I know things change but right now, as we speak, the Cubs are a lot further away from the Cardinals than they were on the last day of the season.
Rumors in December won't win any games in April. Do your job Jed.
Click to expand...
If they just add Swanson and then some bullpen parts, they’ll basically be running back last year’s team with Swanson in place of Contreras in the lineup and Taillon replacing Smyly in the rotation.

They’d be banking on more health from the starting pitchers and emergence of impact youngsters on offense and in the pen. They’d be hoping the better defense up the middle would significantly help the pitching.

I could see it being a slightly improved team of 78-80 wins.
 
#47      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
champaignchris said:
If they just add Swanson and then some bullpen parts, they’ll basically be running back last year’s team with Swanson in place of Contreras in the lineup and Taillon replacing Smyly in the rotation.

They’d be banking on more health from the starting pitchers and emergence of impact youngsters on offense and in the pen. They’d be hoping the better defense up the middle would significantly help the pitching.

I could see it being a slightly improved team of 78-80 wins.
Click to expand...

Even a struggling Bellinger is better than anyone they've trotted out in CF in recent years.
 
#48      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
champaignchris said:
If they just add Swanson and then some bullpen parts, they’ll basically be running back last year’s team with Swanson in place of Contreras in the lineup and Taillon replacing Smyly in the rotation.

They’d be banking on more health from the starting pitchers and emergence of impact youngsters on offense and in the pen. They’d be hoping the better defense up the middle would significantly help the pitching.

I could see it being a slightly improved team of 78-80 wins.
Click to expand...
Swanson is screaming "overpay" to me. Great glove, yes, but this team needs bats & gloves.
 
#49      

WeWillWhen

WeWillWhen
WeWillWhen
Dodgers fan here … Bellinger is a decent fielder who can’t hit or get on base any more. Not sure if it is injuries or an approach that no longer works in today’s MLB, but he will make you long for Heyward’s batting. Shorter porch at Wrigley + wind might raise his homer numbers a bit, but other than that he will be a black hole in the batting order (his OBP in each of past three years has been materially worse than Heyward’s if you can believe that). Only smart thing about this deal is the one year term; this is a total flyer. Sorry to say this, because he seems to be a likable character.
 
#50      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
WeWillWhen said:
Dodgers fan here … Bellinger is a decent fielder who can’t hit or get on base any more. Not sure if it is injuries or an approach that no longer works in today’s MLB, but he will make you long for Heyward’s batting. Shorter porch at Wrigley + wind might raise his homer numbers a bit, but other than that he will be a black hole in the batting order (his OBP in each of past three years has been materially worse than Heyward’s if you can believe that). Only smart thing about this deal is the one year term; this is a total flyer. Sorry to say this, because he seems to be a likable character.
Click to expand...
Bellinger’s OPS was .100 higher than Heyward’s last year. SLG was .120 higher.

Bellinger is also a better fielder than Heyward at this point in their respective careers, particularly in Center, which is where the Cubs need him.

It may be hard for someone accustomed to watching the Dodgers to believe, but Bellinger really is an upgrade over what the Cubs have there right now, which speaks more to the lack of talent on the Cubs roster than Bellinger’s abilities.

The Cubs top two prospects are both center fielders. Brennan Davis will probably be up late this year and Pete Crow-Armstrong late next year. (PCA is probably the long-term CF with Davis moving to LF when Happ leaves via FA or trade.) So the Cubs really only need a one year place holder, and Bellinger fits the bill.

ETA - I think the realistic hope for Bellinger is about a .700 OPS, 20 home runs and a top third of the league defensive performance.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.